Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #2301

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Actually he did his calculations right. There's going to be another GE, so it doesn't matter too much. It keeps BoJo under pressure under the reasoning ''deliver Brexit or lose the election and vanish''.

  2. #2302
    QuintusSertorius's Avatar EBII Hod Carrier
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    This by-election happened because Davies broke the law and got caught doing it. He should never have been standing, that was May's little move to sabotage her successor, and thus Brexit.

    One piece of analysis missing is that there was a "Remain alliance" in the seat, with the Greens and Plaid Cymru standing aside for the Lib Dems. Don't be so sure those Remain parties will be willing to do the same nationwide if it were a general election. Everything was set for them to sweep it, yet they scraped it.

    I wouldn't be so sure of a general election before Halloween; the PM still has levers at his disposal, if he's genuinely committed to getting the UK out.

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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    You know, on the surface I get the reservations about the further integration of the EU. I do find the timing to be a bit odd though. Consider that for decades the EU was mainly about economic integration and, since the fall of the Soviet union, expansion of the common market. In other words, a primarily economic union. Let's not forget that this kind of union is what has led to the disaffection with the EU. How is it that now the EU is finally owning up to the fact that the social aspect was neglected, certain forces in society start to agitate against loss of sovereignty and a need to take back control? In the case of Britain, how has this all lead to the takeover of your government by a group of people whose vision for Britain seems to be a no holds barred Victorian age style capitalism. Are the British such a masochistic people? I mean, if you're going to 'take back control' then how on earth do you put it into the hands of people who will try to screw you over 10 times harder than the EU ever would?
    Someone who's bought into the lie that the European project was about economic integration (only). When economic integration was merely the lever to bring about political union that Monnet and Salter wanted when they first dreamed the notion up in the 1920s.

    I bet you don't even recognise those names, because they've done a good job of obfuscating themselves and indeed the origins of what they created.

  4. #2304

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by caratacus View Post
    Looks like the Brexit party cost the Tories the seat in Brecon and Radnorshire. Farage should not have contested this seat. The standing MP has been a Brexiteer for many years and the only reason they put up a candidate against him, was that he had voted for May's deal. However, by doing so they split the Leave voters.

    This is a small rural constituency with the total vote numbers reflecting that, but does provide a good indicator of what may happen to a great many similar seats in which the Tories have the LibDems as a competitor rather than Labour. Early analysis had the Brexit party at 35% of the vote and the LibDems in second place at 25%, so its easy to understand why Farage thought he was in with a chance here. Boris Johnson needs to do a deal with the Brexit party before an election, or despite Corbyn's weakness, he might be given the opportunity to form a inority government with the LibDems.
    All true from a tactical point of view, but Farage knows that the moment we leave the EU, he and his cohorts become a big fat irrelevance with no money but what they make from radio appearances. He would therefore exact a heavy price in terms of safe seats to be handed over which would make Boris very unpopular among many grass roots Conservatives, not to mention the MPs who were forced to stand down and it would snatch away his personal triumph at delivering Brexit and place it in the hands of Nigel Farage instead. It would be humiliation. It would also increase the possibility of Labour joining with Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid in a coalition on the other side. It would be very difficult for any Conservative leader to do it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Spot on analysis i'd say. Combine this with the fact an early GE is almost assured now (Commentators are saying 'from this result', but i'd argue even when the Tories had a majority of two it was still pretty likely) and we've got a very interesting landscape politically for the next Parliament.
    See, I think that this makes a GE less likely. Boris needs a big thumping majority to force through No Deal: if the Conservatives had won contrary to the forecasts, I think that would have been what he needed to go for it. As it is, the pollsters are suggesting it would deliver another hung parliament, even now with this "Boris Bounce" so by the time Parliament is sitting again, the effect may have worn off: the thing about a bounce is that you come back down again. I don't envy our new PM, he has these three choices;
    1. Probably deliver Brexit after an election at the humiliating cost of going to Nigel Farage with a begging bowl
    2. Call an early election, probably fail to win enough seats
    3. Carry on and have parliament kick him out with a VONC to prevent No Deal
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  5. #2305
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Boris doesn't need to "force through no deal", he doesn't need to do anything at all to let it happen by default.

  6. #2306

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    This by-election happened because Davies broke the law and got caught doing it. He should never have been standing, that was May's little move to sabotage her successor, and thus Brexit.
    Although I am no fan of May, one can't blame her for this one. It was the local association who picked their candidate, for whatever reason. Let us keep things real.



    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    Boris doesn't need to "force through no deal", he doesn't need to do anything at all to let it happen by default.
    Parliament would almost certainly intervene before that would happen.
    Last edited by mongrel; August 02, 2019 at 05:20 PM.
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    Aexodus's Avatar Persuasion>Coercion
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Parliament would almost certainly intervene before that would happen.
    There is no majority to revoke article 50. What else can they do.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Nope. There is nothing to suggest dramatically that his heart is giving out. His heart attack is a testament to how well he can recover from something like that.

  8. #2308
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Although I am no fan of May, one can't blame her for this one. It was the local association who picked their candidate, for whatever reason. Let us keep things real.
    The only person with the power to overrule the local association was the Prime Minister at the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Parliament would almost certainly intervene before that would happen.
    How do you propose they do that exactly? Leaving on Halloween is the law, only primary legislation can overturn primary legislation. The government controls the order papers.

    There is no longer a Prime Minister doing their utmost to obfuscate and obstruct Brexit. Parliament only gets a say if there is another extension (which requires the PM to request one) or a new "deal (which requires the PM to agree it with the EU).
    Last edited by QuintusSertorius; August 02, 2019 at 07:21 PM.

  9. #2309
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Elmetiacos View Post
    See, I think that this makes a GE less likely. Boris needs a big thumping majority to force through No Deal: if the Conservatives had won contrary to the forecasts, I think that would have been what he needed to go for it. As it is, the pollsters are suggesting it would deliver another hung parliament, even now with this "Boris Bounce" so by the time Parliament is sitting again, the effect may have worn off: the thing about a bounce is that you come back down again. I don't envy our new PM, he has these three choices;
    1. Probably deliver Brexit after an election at the humiliating cost of going to Nigel Farage with a begging bowl
    2. Call an early election, probably fail to win enough seats
    3. Carry on and have parliament kick him out with a VONC to prevent No Deal
    It might make Boris more reluctant to go for a GE, however with 6 Tory MPs in talks to join the lib-dems, and also the block of 'one nation' Tories under Hammond and Co, to do anything Boris will need to go to the polls to try and get back a 'real' majority. If he now loses even 1 mp (which is likely), the Government is done for. So i think a GE potentially may happen prior to the 31st now.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    How do you propose they do that exactly? Leaving on Halloween is the law, only primary legislation can overturn primary legislation. The government controls the order papers.

    There is no longer a Prime Minister doing their utmost to obfuscate and obstruct Brexit. Parliament only gets a say if there is another extension (which requires the PM to request one) or a new "deal (which requires the PM to agree it with the EU).
    This is correct, however there are still a myriad of ways that Parliament can interfere, for instance Government control of the order paper is now absolute, and especially with OD's rather admittedly archaic mechanisms can be used to enforce binding votes if needed, it only requires the Speakers assent.

    More simply however, is if Boris is VoNC'ed, he's essentially done for, with the afmorementioned 6 Tory Mp's in talks about joining the lib-dems, and an essentially hostile group of around 50 (The Hammond-Grieve comblob) its in doubt if Boris will make it to the 31st October. Theoretically an election, even without an extension could see a new PM in place by roughly the 25th September. Its likely with the brexit party draining Tory votes that this might be a lib-dem, Labour coalition (with the latter forcing a change in brexit to second ref or even simple scrapping).

    The issue for Boris is that he cannot (even if he wanted to) make a deal with the Brexit party prior to an election being finished. It would fundamentally undermine the Conservative party ad essentially admit they are no longer a key force in UK politics, something unacceptable to Tory MP's (again with the potential to at best have a majority of 1, or at worst actually lose that entirely- Boris has very little room to maneuver now). Its the reason Boris vehemently ruled out any BP alliance.

    It's going to be interesting the next steps, a possibility indeed is that Boris does what he always has, looks to his own political survival and thus softens the tone to try and keep the Tories together, i'm distrustful of the guy, whose commitment to brexit is so great that on the eve of the referendum campaign he had two articles, one pro-EU one for brexit and simply chose the option that might best lead him to no.10.
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  10. #2310

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    The only person with the power to overrule the local association was the Prime Minister at the time.
    Really? An ex-PM overriding the democratic decision of a local association? The fact remains, it was the local association who picked the guy, let us make that clear. I don't want to see the forum misled.


    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    There is no majority to revoke article 50. What else can they do.
    I suspect there is now. If they do consider it the options are:

    -the Prime Minister writes to revoke article 50
    -the House of Commons replaces the Prime Minister after a no-confidence motion with someone who will revoke article 50
    -the House of Commons, through the Speaker, notifies the European Council that article 50 is revoked
    -Parliament passes a fresh Act to revoke article 50. An Act may be desirable, but it’s not necessary
    Last edited by mongrel; August 02, 2019 at 10:39 PM.
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    If they revoke article 50 the Conservative and Unionist Party is dead. There is no way Tory MPs will do that.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Nope. There is nothing to suggest dramatically that his heart is giving out. His heart attack is a testament to how well he can recover from something like that.

  12. #2312

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    If they revoke article 50 the Conservative and Unionist Party is dead. There is no way Tory MPs will do that.
    Indeed. However, Conservative MPs are a dying species. Whether the party remains Unionist is subject to debate right now. No deal no backstop Brexit and direct rule will surely lead to a united Ireland.
    Last edited by mongrel; August 03, 2019 at 02:42 AM.
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  13. #2313
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    If they revoke article 50 the Conservative and Unionist Party is dead. There is no way Tory MPs will do that.
    No-deal was voted down, agreement requires backstop and withdraw agreement and EU said no big changes..., any trade agreement basically requires any kind of agreement...

    I don´t know, but how many viable options is there currently? Only recent viable option was Corbyn´s one but it also lacked support....and time is ticking.
    Last edited by Daruwind; August 03, 2019 at 02:26 AM.

  14. #2314

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I'm wondering why the haste, why October 31st? If the UK isn't ready, it is surely in the national interest to maintain the status quo until it is.The referendum did not bind the Government to a specific exit date.
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    I'm wondering why the haste, why October 31st? If the UK isn't ready, it is surely in the national interest to maintain the status quo until it is.The referendum did not bind the Government to a specific exit date.
    That is what EU offered? UK wanted to leave on 29th March and 12th April right already.... 31 October is sadly way after EU election but before a new commision took seats....It is trully ROFL LOL moment when UK wants to leave yet keeps voting down no-deal/any deal and begging for just little more extension...:/

    EDIT: Honestly problem lies in UK...UK is always saying through official mouths that it is just leaving, no long extension (because that would look like end of brexit?) just liiiiitle longer. EU was also splitted because UK almost rejected EU election, all the talks about hard locking some procedures or delaying in cas eof no brexit problably helped neither...but on other hand...The best solution would be to offer long extension..possible into newt EU election? Or into end of current Multiannual Financial Framework (2021-2027 is next one?) Keep the current objections. Like UK can leave as soon as any agreement is agreed upon and passed. BUt this longer period to actually have election or create any long term strategy and solve the issue inside UK is probably what is currently missing. UK seems to be in constant stress and panic/chaos mode. From one deadline moving to another line. Basically no substantial changes of plans can be agreed upon...
    Last edited by Daruwind; August 03, 2019 at 03:41 AM.

  16. #2316
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    Someone who's bought into the lie that the European project was about economic integration (only). When economic integration was merely the lever to bring about political union that Monnet and Salter wanted when they first dreamed the notion up in the 1920s.

    I bet you don't even recognise those names, because they've done a good job of obfuscating themselves and indeed the origins of what they created.
    Except the participants do not all subscribe to that goal. There are countries and political groupings who only went along because they favour economic integration with as little political integration as possible. These are now using Euroscepticism as an excuse to step on the brakes, which is ironic because that just solidifies the situation that brought about Euroscepticism in the first place: the EU as a playground where business trade freely AND nations still compete against eachother for their favours.
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  17. #2317
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Um...Euronazi? Blackmail? Godfather? Due money? ..He is merely responding and warning Johnson because he is talking utopian things 1) Oettinger is EU budget Commissioner...who else si more competent to speak about money? 2) And he is saying exactly what EU was repeating many times. Even in case of no-deal, those loose ends, backstops, withdrawal agreement, divorce bill will return before ANY future trade agreements. UK cannot escape this...3) Whatever we think about brexit, those money were last year agreed by UK..so not only UK promised them long time ago, but also agreed with that last year... 3) tanked finacial credibility is natural result of not paying what you are supposed to..

    And actually he is right. No-deal scenario would probably very soon wake up people from their Albion dream. Go read a few pages back what Danta wrote. No-deal is probably quickest way for UK back into EU..only this time without any special treatment and with alot pissed off countries around. UK diplomatic credibility already tanked in EU..

    And once more. If no-deal happens, all responsibility lies only on UK itself. Sorry for that but Cameron started with that crappy idea, May were continuing a few years on Titanic course and now looks like Johnson will finally hit iceberg. Crying that world is not caretaking about UK and playing nice with UK is all you can do. Politics should know better that no negotiation is for free and that in weak positions all will prey on you..

    EDIT: basil,can you stop throwing around such generalization like SS officer and nazis? Just because you call everything you dislike nazi it is not true. It is exactly this light foot generalization and quick judges that is wrong with current world.
    Basil is simply pointing out that the European Bureaucrats have more arrogance and ego filled in them that's a left-over of European elites. If Napoleon would have seen the EU he would be opposed to it (of course if it was run by French interests then fine)

    Far from saying they would be Nazi's, they're more like a bunch of aloof people that no one in the EU cares about. Can you tell me one EU Citizen that writes to their MEP apart from the ridicolous climate change charges? India needs a barraging on climate change if you ask me especially with its cities. They need a urgent and massive reform at once.

    And Basil is right. Far from the scare mongering that the remainers love to talk about, the UK's businesses are fine. Its only those that have vested interests in the EU that will be affected and nothing else will happen.

    The left will lose time and time again and again and again and again when they keep insulting the voters, keep insulting the public.

    Trump won because of that. He offered a positive image while Clinton said the 'voters were a basket of deplorables, racists, sexists'.

    Out of that, if you were an American and you heard your opposition leader saying that, you'd be boiling with rage. That's why he won, that's why Brexit won

    And sure, its not as if Trump and Farage are great saints, they're business people dining in 5 star hotels, and eating the best food money can buy and living comfortable lives. But how does that compare to the Socalist politicans who are just neo-liberals doing exactly the same thing?

    Doesn't mean they don't have valid points of course they do, but the reason the Left lost massively was because their only solutions are high taxes and socalist policies which seem to benefit only in the short term. What the right-wingers did was they made capitalism cool again. I don't agree much with right-wingers on the degrees of capitalism, but then look at the amount of literature, film and media that have socalist tendancies to represent capitalism as the worst thing in existence.

    Even China abandoned socalism when they realized it didn't work anymore and went to a capitalist style economy. The sheer intelligence of their political class transformed it from a third world country to a first world country in a matter of a decade. I don't see how and why European Socalism is so popular.

    This is the reason they will exit the EU - because the EU needs massive reform and no one's interested in that. If the EU had been reformed, I can assure you that everyone would want to stay. Why are we getting leave EU movements in France, Spain and other countries? There must be something inherently wrong with the EU that this is happening. Even Juncker isn't a fool to realize that in the face of such adversity.

    Besides, why bother with changing the system which put you in power in the first place?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    It might make Boris more reluctant to go for a GE, however with 6 Tory MPs in talks to join the lib-dems, and also the block of 'one nation' Tories under Hammond and Co, to do anything Boris will need to go to the polls to try and get back a 'real' majority. If he now loses even 1 mp (which is likely), the Government is done for. So i think a GE potentially may happen prior to the 31st now.



    This is correct, however there are still a myriad of ways that Parliament can interfere, for instance Government control of the order paper is now absolute, and especially with OD's rather admittedly archaic mechanisms can be used to enforce binding votes if needed, it only requires the Speakers assent.

    More simply however, is if Boris is VoNC'ed, he's essentially done for, with the afmorementioned 6 Tory Mp's in talks about joining the lib-dems, and an essentially hostile group of around 50 (The Hammond-Grieve comblob) its in doubt if Boris will make it to the 31st October. Theoretically an election, even without an extension could see a new PM in place by roughly the 25th September. Its likely with the brexit party draining Tory votes that this might be a lib-dem, Labour coalition (with the latter forcing a change in brexit to second ref or even simple scrapping).

    The issue for Boris is that he cannot (even if he wanted to) make a deal with the Brexit party prior to an election being finished. It would fundamentally undermine the Conservative party ad essentially admit they are no longer a key force in UK politics, something unacceptable to Tory MP's (again with the potential to at best have a majority of 1, or at worst actually lose that entirely- Boris has very little room to maneuver now). Its the reason Boris vehemently ruled out any BP alliance.

    It's going to be interesting the next steps, a possibility indeed is that Boris does what he always has, looks to his own political survival and thus softens the tone to try and keep the Tories together, i'm distrustful of the guy, whose commitment to brexit is so great that on the eve of the referendum campaign he had two articles, one pro-EU one for brexit and simply chose the option that might best lead him to no.10.
    You know Rory Stewart isn't a conservative, he's a liberal democrat. In fact most of the Conservative MPs are either champagne socalists or neo-liberals that just love to cut public money so they get richer.

    Chuka Umamna was always a liberal from the start, he never had any real strand of socalist policy within him.

    That's why the BP didn't make much of an effort for the by-election. They can't win a GE in normal circumstances, and they pushed the Tories third in the first by-election. Nigel's got a lot of contacts and he's already negotiating with Conservative donors, man British politics has become exciting to say the least. Wait, so if 6 mps go over to the Lib Dems its over for the Tory Pater? Exciting times! The Conservatives are getting their karma for pushing austerity and welfare cuts. But the BP is aiming to split the vote....no wonder, even if they don't win seats, they've effectively damaged the Brexit vote between them and the Conservatives.

    This is like Napoleon is on his Waterloo campaign. Pretty much, Napoleon had to organise his army quickly, and Boris is doing the same. But can Boris deliver on the 31st? Or will it be his own Waterloo?

    Why would people ever want to vote for a party that has announced more Conservative policies in existence? Student fees? Never ever going to vote for a party that has just become the Democrat version of liberals.

    If there's one thing Boris did do right, he opposed the austerity, and welfare cuts. The Liberal Democrats didn't bother to stop, neither had the damn courage to do so.

    I don't see JC getting into power unless he begins a massive rebrand of his already destroyed image and shows he's far more active than a student politican and shows some steel. Otherwise he's desparate to redo 2017 all over again.

    Except now, this election or whenever it will come will have key figures: Farage, Corbyn and Boris. These three are really handling the fate of Brexit. Except two are in Government, and one isn't.

    Its really unpredictable and I wonder what the EU must be thinking, because kudos to them, they had a plan from day 1 and extremly efficient when it comes to protecting their own interests.

    He never cared about Brexit. At one point he wanted to remain, but he changed so he could get into power. I assure you that if Parliament had won this referendum, he wouldn't be screaming Brexit from the top of his lungs. Gotta give credit to him, as a member of the establishment he at least understands that you need to keep the people happy. That is what Government should do. Keep the people happy, give them good policies and they won't complain. But that has been forgetton. But Boris is on very thin ice even if he doesn't show it.
    Last edited by The Wandering Storyteller; August 03, 2019 at 06:44 AM.





















































  18. #2318
    QuintusSertorius's Avatar EBII Hod Carrier
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    It might make Boris more reluctant to go for a GE, however with 6 Tory MPs in talks to join the lib-dems, and also the block of 'one nation' Tories under Hammond and Co, to do anything Boris will need to go to the polls to try and get back a 'real' majority. If he now loses even 1 mp (which is likely), the Government is done for. So i think a GE potentially may happen prior to the 31st now.
    He doesn't need to do anything. The law is we leave on 31st October, that is the default position.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    This is correct, however there are still a myriad of ways that Parliament can interfere, for instance Government control of the order paper is now absolute, and especially with OD's rather admittedly archaic mechanisms can be used to enforce binding votes if needed, it only requires the Speakers assent.

    More simply however, is if Boris is VoNC'ed, he's essentially done for, with the afmorementioned 6 Tory Mp's in talks about joining the lib-dems, and an essentially hostile group of around 50 (The Hammond-Grieve comblob) its in doubt if Boris will make it to the 31st October. Theoretically an election, even without an extension could see a new PM in place by roughly the 25th September. Its likely with the brexit party draining Tory votes that this might be a lib-dem, Labour coalition (with the latter forcing a change in brexit to second ref or even simple scrapping).

    The issue for Boris is that he cannot (even if he wanted to) make a deal with the Brexit party prior to an election being finished. It would fundamentally undermine the Conservative party ad essentially admit they are no longer a key force in UK politics, something unacceptable to Tory MP's (again with the potential to at best have a majority of 1, or at worst actually lose that entirely- Boris has very little room to maneuver now). Its the reason Boris vehemently ruled out any BP alliance.

    It's going to be interesting the next steps, a possibility indeed is that Boris does what he always has, looks to his own political survival and thus softens the tone to try and keep the Tories together, i'm distrustful of the guy, whose commitment to brexit is so great that on the eve of the referendum campaign he had two articles, one pro-EU one for brexit and simply chose the option that might best lead him to no.10.
    If he's VONC'd he still gets to choose when the general election takes place, if no new government is able to be formed to replace his in that two-week window to find another executive. The FTPA sets a minimum of 25 working days from the announcement to an election, there is no maximum.

    Corbyn is running out of time to attempt a VONC, if it happens later than 14th September, the minimum timeframes of the post-VONC government-forming and FTPA would run past the end of October.

    One other consideration to factor in is that any Conservative MP voting in favour of a VONC is highly likely to be deselected. Unless they're going to jump ship to the Lib Dems, how do they envisage having a job after the ensuing general election?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Really? An ex-PM overriding the democratic decision of a local association? The fact remains, it was the local association who picked the guy, let us make that clear. I don't want to see the forum misled.
    You're the one doing the misleading. May was PM past the 5th July which was the deadline for candidate selection. This is on her, she chose not to overrule the local association, and allow a damaged candidate to run.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    No-deal was voted down, agreement requires backstop and withdraw agreement and EU said no big changes..., any trade agreement basically requires any kind of agreement...

    I don´t know, but how many viable options is there currently? Only recent viable option was Corbyn´s one but it also lacked support....and time is ticking.
    No deal can't be "voted down" as long as primary legislation fixes an exit date. A motion isn't primary legislation, it was nothing more than gesture politics.

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    Except the participants do not all subscribe to that goal. There are countries and political groupings who only went along because they favour economic integration with as little political integration as possible. These are now using Euroscepticism as an excuse to step on the brakes, which is ironic because that just solidifies the situation that brought about Euroscepticism in the first place: the EU as a playground where business trade freely AND nations still compete against eachother for their favours.
    Utterly irrelevant what they subscribe to, that's the inevitable direction of travel. QMV replaces unanimity in ever more competences, all rebates are being phased out, and everyone will be compelled to join the euro by 2025. The European army that the likes of Clegg lied and said was a "fantasy" (despite being a goal since 1950) is almost a reality. There is only one course: "more Europe".
    Last edited by QuintusSertorius; August 03, 2019 at 08:15 AM.

  19. #2319
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    He doesn't need to do anything. The law is we leave on 31st October, that is the default position.



    If he's VONC'd he still gets to choose when the general election takes place, if no new government is able to be formed to replace his in that two-week window to find another executive. The FTPA sets a minimum of 25 working days from the announcement to an election, there is no maximum.

    Corbyn is running out of time to attempt a VONC, if it happens later than 14th September, the minimum timeframes of the post-VONC government-forming and FTPA would run past the end of October.

    One other consideration to factor in is that any Conservative MP voting in favour of a VONC is highly likely to be deselected. Unless they're going to jump ship to the Lib Dems, how do they envisage having a job after the ensuing general election?
    I think firstly on the issue of deselection- the main caveat to that is that as in the case of Grieve the local associations are moving to indeed de-selection MP's already, so for a fair few Tories of the Hammond-Grieve block, this is not longer an issue- their careers are done essentially, it was arguably a mistake for threats of de-selection at this stage, as it takes away the incentive to stay.

    Also as i mentioned 6 Tory MP's are indeed in talks to jump ship right now.

    In regards to the law, as i said indeed it is. But the default position is not fixed, especially as Opposition Days can as we've seen be used alongside rather archaic mechanisms to force binding votes if the circumstances are deemed 'extraordinary'. Even as we saw with Letwin, the Government, especially with such a small majority can lose control of the order paper and essentially back-benchers can take charge. The Speaker brought it to an end last time as it was heading nowhere, but the precedent was set (and of course was allowed in the first place), the Government on having such a small majority (which essentially breaks the usual running of Westminster as we've seen with every 'minority' or 'near-minority' government historically) is open to quite a bit of difficulty, even if they try to do something as simple as let the clock run down.

    So the default position would be secure, if Boris had a significant majority that counteracted the disunity within his own party, he lacks this though, so currently we're in 'interesting times' in which essentially within the limits of what the Speaker will allow, anything goes.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Wandering Storyteller View Post
    Basil is simply pointing out that the European Bureaucrats have more arrogance and ego filled in them that's a left-over of European elites. If Napoleon would have seen the EU he would be opposed to it (of course if it was run by French interests then fine)

    Far from saying they would be Nazi's, they're more like a bunch of aloof people that no one in the EU cares about. Can you tell me one EU Citizen that writes to their MEP apart from the ridicolous climate change charges? India needs a barraging on climate change if you ask me especially with its cities. They need a urgent and massive reform at once.

    And Basil is right. Far from the scare mongering that the remainers love to talk about, the UK's businesses are fine. Its only those that have vested interests in the EU that will be affected and nothing else will happen.

    The left will lose time and time again and again and again and again when they keep insulting the voters, keep insulting the public.

    Trump won because of that. He offered a positive image while Clinton said the 'voters were a basket of deplorables, racists, sexists'.

    Out of that, if you were an American and you heard your opposition leader saying that, you'd be boiling with rage. That's why he won, that's why Brexit won

    And sure, its not as if Trump and Farage are great saints, they're business people dining in 5 star hotels, and eating the best food money can buy and living comfortable lives. But how does that compare to the Socalist politicans who are just neo-liberals doing exactly the same thing?

    Doesn't mean they don't have valid points of course they do, but the reason the Left lost massively was because their only solutions are high taxes and socalist policies which seem to benefit only in the short term. What the right-wingers did was they made capitalism cool again. I don't agree much with right-wingers on the degrees of capitalism, but then look at the amount of literature, film and media that have socalist tendancies to represent capitalism as the worst thing in existence.

    Even China abandoned socalism when they realized it didn't work anymore and went to a capitalist style economy. The sheer intelligence of their political class transformed it from a third world country to a first world country in a matter of a decade. I don't see how and why European Socalism is so popular.

    This is the reason they will exit the EU - because the EU needs massive reform and no one's interested in that. If the EU had been reformed, I can assure you that everyone would want to stay. Why are we getting leave EU movements in France, Spain and other countries? There must be something inherently wrong with the EU that this is happening. Even Juncker isn't a fool to realize that in the face of such adversity.

    Besides, why bother with changing the system which put you in power in the first place?



    You know Rory Stewart isn't a conservative, he's a liberal democrat. In fact most of the Conservative MPs are either champagne socalists or neo-liberals that just love to cut public money so they get richer.

    Chuka Umamna was always a liberal from the start, he never had any real strand of socalist policy within him.

    That's why the BP didn't make much of an effort for the by-election. They can't win a GE in normal circumstances, and they pushed the Tories third in the first by-election. Nigel's got a lot of contacts and he's already negotiating with Conservative donors, man British politics has become exciting to say the least. Wait, so if 6 mps go over to the Lib Dems its over for the Tory Pater? Exciting times! The Conservatives are getting their karma for pushing austerity and welfare cuts. But the BP is aiming to split the vote....no wonder, even if they don't win seats, they've effectively damaged the Brexit vote between them and the Conservatives.

    This is like Napoleon is on his Waterloo campaign. Pretty much, Napoleon had to organise his army quickly, and Boris is doing the same. But can Boris deliver on the 31st? Or will it be his own Waterloo?

    Why would people ever want to vote for a party that has announced more Conservative policies in existence? Student fees? Never ever going to vote for a party that has just become the Democrat version of liberals.

    If there's one thing Boris did do right, he opposed the austerity, and welfare cuts. The Liberal Democrats didn't bother to stop, neither had the damn courage to do so.

    I don't see JC getting into power unless he begins a massive rebrand of his already destroyed image and shows he's far more active than a student politican and shows some steel. Otherwise he's desparate to redo 2017 all over again.

    Except now, this election or whenever it will come will have key figures: Farage, Corbyn and Boris. These three are really handling the fate of Brexit. Except two are in Government, and one isn't.

    Its really unpredictable and I wonder what the EU must be thinking, because kudos to them, they had a plan from day 1 and extremly efficient when it comes to protecting their own interests.

    He never cared about Brexit. At one point he wanted to remain, but he changed so he could get into power. I assure you that if Parliament had won this referendum, he wouldn't be screaming Brexit from the top of his lungs. Gotta give credit to him, as a member of the establishment he at least understands that you need to keep the people happy. That is what Government should do. Keep the people happy, give them good policies and they won't complain. But that has been forgetton. But Boris is on very thin ice even if he doesn't show it.
    A very fair analysis, and i agree essentially that British politics is currently at its most exciting in decades
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  20. #2320
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by QuintusSertorius View Post
    No deal can't be "voted down" as long as primary legislation fixes an exit date. A motion isn't primary legislation, it was nothing more than gesture politics.
    Then why UK is still not out? UK had at least two deadlines (31st March + 12th April) yet UK is still not out....

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