Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Basil II the B.S]

And that is bad how? Conciliatory approaches got May a crap deal and costed her the job. Only a (liberal) moron would pursue the same. Barnier is an Euronazi that wants to squeeze the UK and force them into submission for the 4th Reich.

It's like choosing between Neville Chamberlain's approach and Winston Churchill's. Everything that Uncle Adolf Barnier doesn't like is automatically good. Let him squeal.

[caratacus]

I think Johnson might well pull something off and negotiate a workable deal with the EU despite Barnier's comments. He certainly is brimming with confidence and his speech yesterday , although full of journalistic type Boris language certainly was quite eloquent in its positive messaging., which is what the Country needs now very badly. We have had three years of pessimism and a May administration which looked less than enthusiastic about enacting Brexit. But Theresa May also began her premiership on a similar wave of enthusiasm. The difference is, that Johnson is committed to a firm date for leaving, 31st October, which may never was. And is prepared to stake his reputation on getting this thing done! Three years of indecision stuck in limbo land are enough. He also said that if no deal were agreed, then we would keep the 39 billion pounds previously allocated as a divorce bill, also something that May didn't commit to not paying.

Johnson’s purge of the Cabinet of the many negative voices on Brexit, which were very vocal on the issue of leaving without a deal, will certainly lead to a greater degree of control by the PM. Splits amongst cabinet colleagues were far too evident before. However, with a slim majority and so many in Parliament, including the Speaker, prepared to do anything to prevent such a situation, the new PMs position will be a very difficult one indeed.

But, yesterday wasn't just about saving Brexit, but saving the Conservative party from electoral annihilation. The widespread and dramatic changes yesterday are necessary if the Conservative party is to remain in power after the next general election,which could be as early as December. Today’s PM Question Time had the Conservative benches reinvigorated in enthusiasm under their new leader, with Johnson making Jeremy Corbyn look the smaller figure. The quip abut his change in support of the EU being something akin to the SciFi film “Invasion of the Body Snatchers” was a gem.

[Elmetiacos]

It's actually more sensible. The biggest stakeholder in the EU is Germany. Germany is in deep now. The country is at heavy risk of recession because of Trump's tariffs. The German economic model...

This argument was made by Brexit enthusiasts from the moment the referendum result was in: "Don't worry about getting a good deal, the German car industry means that they'll have to give us what we want" Of course, that's not what happened and a new face at Number 10 won't change the facts.

[Basil II the B.S]

You haven't checked any news about the German car industry in the past year, haven't you?

This is what you get in the first page of Google if you type ''German car industry news'':
The automotive industry is facing major challenges around the world. German carmakers have more to lose than most and are thus investing a great deal in securing its future.
http://www.german-times.com/the-auto...ng-its-future/

Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
https://www.handelsblatt.com/today/c.../24026414.html

''American tariffs, a Chinese slowdown and a hard Brexit could hammer an industry vital to the country's economy just as tens of billions are needed for electric and self-driving cars.''

Peak Car Poses a Mortal Threat to Germany’s Most Important Industry
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...rtant-industry

I'm even leaving out the ones by pro-Brexit media like the Express. Page 2:

Germany ‘will talk to the last hour’ to avoid no-deal Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/business...-extra-70m-day
The Guardian, a hardline Remainer.

Brexit could crush the German auto industry
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/br...try-2019-02-11

There isn't a single piece of good news for pages.

[Elmetiacos]

You'd be hard pressed to find a car industry that isn't in trouble at the moment: the news is no better for JLR or Nissan. This doesn't mean Merkel (if she's still around) has to try and bring back the IRA.

[Basil II the B.S]

That isn't wrong but it's obvious that if a country's backbone is the car industry then that country is going to suffer.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Total War Center is being weird for me, apparently the Security Certificate is no longer valid, so i can barely access the site or post lately.

But trying here The thing to watch isn't Boris, but the Tory majority and has impact on it. It is now about to be just 1 (that is including the DUP), though some commentators are saying 2, but that iirc is because the Breaconsfield stuff hasn't happened yet.

Regardless though, commentators essentially all agree there is a cabal of 50-60 Tory backbenchers who are willing to bring down Boris's government is there is any serious moves towards 'no deal'. Some of these indeed have formed their own counterbalance to the ERG the 'One Nation' (Yep, they stole the name) group who are essentially for Remain. So even trying to merely 'wait out the clock' for a no-deal isn't something that would now work. The key thing too about the Cabinet resignations is that some very influential Tories who are pro softie/remain are now free to criticize their Government as they please. I think this may have been Boris' first mistake to not get these people on the 'inside'. This is a government even more unstable than May's was essentially. It'll be a very interesting tight-rope for Boris to have to try and walk.

His own party have not yet been able to put in place a change in their own rules to disallow them just removing Boris in the first 12 months (Though i think that is unlikely). However, its essentially more the very real threat that Corbyn VoNC's and 1 or 2 Tories fail to back Boris (very likely). The issue of course being the timing of this VoNC. If Boris can force it soon (as iirc there is a time limit between VoNCs) prior to giving an indication that he's actually going to (either on own steam or forced by the EU refusing to renegotiate) pursue 'no deal', then Corbyn will have fluffed it. But if in the next month or so it appears this is a possibility, then we could very well see Boris's harder stance regarding brexit, actually be the brexiteers downfall and a softer or second Ref/ Remain outcome if Corbyn's Labour or a coalition wins. This is bearing in mind too the hugely undemocratic (in my view) point that a unmandated Boris could simply be replaced by an unmandated Labour government, as if somehow Labour get the support in a coalition they don't actually have to call a GE at all (though its unlikely that a) they could forge the coalition needed without a GE and B) that Corbyn would miss the chance of a GE, given that the Tory party being VoNC'ed would fracture their own unity and undermine voter confidence in them, perhaps leading to the growth of the brexit party from dispirited Tory pro-brexit voters, which guarantees a Labour win.

There has thus far also been an 'Early motion' to VoNC Boris from the lib-dems Jo Swinson (I so want to say Swansons...parks and recs man) today, however that is not a VoNC (Only Corbyn can call one), and also is more about the lib-dems waving their credentials around, as yougov currently puts the lib-dems a mere 1% behind Boris's Conservative party - 23% to 24%.

However this is Yougov, who are currently the outlier poll, their being the only ones to have Labour not in first place over the last few weeks (all the others have Corbyn leading over the Tories), so i'm not sure the difference in sample:
https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Though i would expect the lib-dems to have picked up as the Tories under Boris bled 'remain/liberal' Tories, and Boris failed to properly tackle the Brexit party (Who i think will be steady on a slightly higher than UKIP percentage, however the areas of their support being enough still to cause the Tories trouble at a GE, enough to lose it, particularly as Boris refuses to contemplate working with Farage- which is fair, as it would be worse for the Tories, who are trying to beat Farage, not legitimize the brexit party). But aye, i'm skeptical of this poll, simply because its so out of the ordinary with the others.

Regardless though, Boris is going to have a hell of a time politically retaining power. Brexit is once more 'all to play for' for all the factions involved, and a GE (either called by Boris, or forced) has never been closer, and indeed may even happen prior to brexit being done on the 31st.

In regards to my comments on Boris so far, its early, but i do note that he's very much 'like Corbyn', but also different- He's more aggressive than Corbyn (they are like chalk and cheese), however he shares Corbyn's unease at the dispatch box in a parliamentary setting. He's more of a campaigner like Corbyn, not great in constrained podium style engagements or speeches. He shares with May the wish to dodge or ignore questions, and indeed today was quick to contradict himself regarding crime levels (Rising so i provide more police, and then a few minutes later claiming their falling in all areas in response to a Labour attack on the issue). I suspect places like Full Fact are going to have a heck of time during Boris's tenure. He's also like May very light on detail (a criticism even his allies have made, that he's not very good with detail as the the stint at the FO proved)- he currently (though in fairness its too early) answer questions regarding his own brexit plans (What technology would we use on the NI border- Boris's current implication indeed seems to imply that the possibility of a border at British ports will be implemented to avoid a NI border, something the DUP nearly toppled May over, so it'll be interesting to see how that plays out). Also Boris is clearly trying to tackle Labour on its own ground of state spending to revitalize Britain, the difference currently is the approach, but also again early days, but important, its not clear how Boris is going to pay for all this, plus tax-cuts he wants, he's either given up on the deficit and will just spend with Brexit as political cover (possible and well played), or is just going to wing it through loans and as May did pile the expense onto local councils and just pretend its not his problem. This is vulnerable ground in practice as it leaves the Tories open on their usual 'strength' (costed stable economy) against Labour. Its a mistake previous Tory governments have made when they lost, and is personified in the quip (i think by Ian Duncan Smith) that you can't as a Tory match Labour on spending, and expect to come-out trumps. Labour are ironically helped as its expected they will use and abuse tax hikes and loans, the Tories are restricted though by their traditional trump card and perception of this (Spend little, tax little).

But aye, shaping up to be an interesting few weeks.

[conon394]

Total War Center is being weird for me, apparently the Security Certificate is no longer valid, so i can barely access the site or post lately.

You should be able to override that and manually override certificate issues and just you you don't care for a site.

[Quintus Hortensius Hortalus]

You haven't checked any news about the German car industry in the past year, haven't you?

This is what you get in the first page of Google if you type ''German car industry news'':
The automotive industry is facing major challenges around the world. German carmakers have more to lose than most and are thus investing a great deal in securing its future.
http://www.german-times.com/the-auto...ng-its-future/

Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
https://www.handelsblatt.com/today/c.../24026414.html

''American tariffs, a Chinese slowdown and a hard Brexit could hammer an industry vital to the country's economy just as tens of billions are needed for electric and self-driving cars.''

Peak Car Poses a Mortal Threat to Germany’s Most Important Industry
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...rtant-industry

I'm even leaving out the ones by pro-Brexit media like the Express. Page 2:

Germany ‘will talk to the last hour’ to avoid no-deal Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/business...-extra-70m-day
The Guardian, a hardline Remainer.

Brexit could crush the German auto industry
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/br...try-2019-02-11

There isn't a single piece of good news for pages.

First of all (I just quoted you Basil to explain something about the German car industry), VW (the biggest company of the German car-industries) will never get down because it's partly state owned and to many workers and their families (aka voters) depend on VW. The state government of Lower-Saxony will never ever let VW crush because if they would, they would never got reelected.
The 2nd mistake in my mind is that Germany isn't the EU. I actually see now way of any Brexit treaty which allows the UK to erect a hard border in Ireland to get through the European Council because as far as I understood it the Irish border is somewhat a key to the national identity of the Republic of Ireland and therefore would the Republic of Ireland vote down and Brexit treaty not concerning this in a manner appropriate for the Republic of Ireland.
This leads me to a point where I simply don't understand May or Johnson. They both speak/spoke about renegotiating as the EU would be only the other side on the table and therefore not mentioning that all 27 member states of the EU have to agree to any Brexit treaty. I don't know if they ignore this or don't see this but it's a real problem when renegotiating because May's plan was also a compromise between the 27 EU member states. So renegotiating means that the 27 member states would negotiate their compromise again (which in my opinion is why the EU don't want to renegotiate).
So I'm a bit confused if Johnson just ignores this for the public or the UK PM/MP's have some sort of historical hubris concerning the Republic of Ireland such as 'nobody cares about what Ireland wants'.

[Basil II the B.S]

Well, if people stop buying German cars, you are still going to have a problem. I'm not even disagreeing with you because I sort of know what the German govt will do if recession hits, but we'll leave that for another thread.
The second point.. Germany is not the EU, but it's the most influential country and can rely on a solid voting block of secondary countries.
May is an idiot and she's out for that so we can move on from that one. Bojo's renegotiation claim is far different. May never put on the table: ''it's either a good deal or we leave slamming the door without a deal''. That second part, Bojo seems to be willing to play.
I still think it's too late for him to get a good deal but we'll see. Bojo has a cunning personality that might work out in this case. I don't personally like him but given that Farage seems to have lost momentum and Corbyn as well, there aren't clear alternatives.
The fact that UK Remainer media are freaking out about the cabinet is objectively good.

[Daruwind]

May is an idiot and she's out for that so we can move on from that one. Bojo's renegotiation claim is far different. May never put on the table: ''it's either a good deal or we leave slamming the door without a deal''. That second part, Bojo seems to be willing to play.
I still think it's too late for him to get a good deal but we'll see. Bojo has a cunning personality that might work out in this case. I don't personally like him but given that Farage seems to have lost momentum and Corbyn as well, there aren't clear alternatives.

1) May is in the same pice of crap box as Johnson. Why? Because May was as well trying to play no-deal scenario...except it was voted down by Uk parliament. Now Boris is in the very same spot. He might try personally harder to achieve the no-deal ...except the rest of country will again vote him down. See the problem? Both of them are lacking enough support for no-deal scenario. His whole idea about suspending parliament is nothing else than more extreme approach..with no chance to success..
2) Uk should have plan before referendum, then negotiate better during previous years and not get it done just before christmas 2018. This whole brexit story so far is nice farce so If Uk wants to re-negotiate, fair enough. Cancel article 50. Get homework done, get new public discussion to create actual long term plan and majoprity for it and then after next referendum in 5-10 years decide what to do. Why? Because for me as citizen of Czech Republic the UK is wasting EU time. 3 Years. You have deal on table if you want no-deal,just take it. You have actually opportunity in April and I bet in October Uk will try hard as hell to avoid it again..Actually it was EU that had to copromised to allow brexit extension. Betting that those EU27 will time after time agree with extension might be dangerous idea....You need somebody like Corbyn (not him, anybody..) with at least semi workable plan...with alternative, not just threats.
3) If you want re-negotiate...you need to give something in exchange for it. Keeping money? Try getting trade agreement later....removing Irish Backstop? Show some technical toys to prevent hard border...where are they? At same place as those ferries?
4) Just for fun. EU stated that even in case of no-deal, before any future talks (trade)...the question about withdrawal agreement,backstop,money will have to be solved. So no,you cannot escape that. So maybe it is better to have nice deal before EU27 will be really piss off on UK....

The fact that UK Remainer media are freaking out about the cabinet is objectively good.

They are freaking from having yet another clown at helm...right?

[Basil II the B.S]

Here you'd have the problem that EU positions have been handled under the rationale that the UK is leaving and thus the UK received nothing. So they'd have to stay 5 years with basically no representation. The recent extremely tight majority for Von der Leyen is also equally worrysome and should Conservatives decide not to support her, she'd be blocked. It gets insanely complicated for EU proceedings if the UK does not leave in October. Many in the EU are also tired of this, starting with Macron.
Finally, the UK enjoyed an important number of opt-outs, meaning special treatment in terms of EU legislation, like the UK rebate, immigration rules etc. The federalist crowd always hated that and is happy to see the UK leave, especially because the UK will no longer be able to oppose their great dream of an EU army.

I think most people have forgotten that the underlying British Euroscepticism is what lead to the referendum to begin with (not necessarily the outcome of the vote).

[The Wandering Storyteller]

Q.

If Boris delivers Brexit,

Then what use is the Brexit Party anyway?

[Aexodus]

I imagine they will either disband or join the Tory party.

[Basil II the B.S]

They disappear. Unless Farage decides to reinvent himself.

[Daruwind]

Here you'd have the problem that EU positions have been handled under the rationale that the UK is leaving and thus the UK received nothing. So they'd have to stay 5 years with basically no representation. The recent extremely tight majority for Von der Leyen is also equally worrysome and should Conservatives decide not to support her, she'd be blocked. It gets insanely complicated for EU proceedings if the UK does not leave in October. Many in the EU are also tired of this, starting with Macron.
Finally, the UK enjoyed an important number of opt-outs, meaning special treatment in terms of EU legislation, like the UK rebate, immigration rules etc. The federalist crowd always hated that and is happy to see the UK leave, especially because the UK will no longer be able to oppose their great dream of an EU army.

I think most people have forgotten that the underlying British Euroscepticism is what lead to the referendum to begin with (not necessarily the outcome of the vote).

But then let me ask one question. Why is UK parliament voting no-deal down? UK itself has the ability to leave. Yet UK didn´t leave on 1st April and I bet my hat that neither will UK leave at October. According to you, EU wants UK to leave, UK wants to leave...everybody wants to end it....yet UK is voting it down.

This is signalling that UK is not ready to leave....yet UK (May,Boris..) is threating with no-deal to blackmail more favourable deal? Nonsense... For us in EU...we don´t care about inner UK politics. (ok we do,because it is fun to watch ) Sorry, UK is not having leverage to get better deal, that all. And I´m not saying UK is weak or being punished. Simply UK is lacking diplomacy skill and mostly experience diplomats.

Uk should admit this is dead end. Basically there is no majority for ANY plan, just against ALL plans.

[Basil II the B.S]

The risk is that even if the UK parliament votes down, the UK gets thrown out of the EU.
Also, no. It's more complicated. Many in the UK want to leave, but many want to remain and these include people in the institutions. The same can be said in the EU. And this exactly why a common ground is impossible and it's ending like this.
If Bojo doesn't leave in October,which is possible, then he killed his political career and his own party. I'm not sure he wants to go down like that.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Brexiter group the European Research Group (ERG) will vote against any form of the Withdrawal Agreement, even if Boris Johnson succeeds in persuading the EUto remove the Irish backstop, Tory MP Mark Francois claimed.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/br...son-erg-video/

We are now looking at a very early GE potentially, i.e. before brexit is done. The majority of 1 or2 (depending on when asked) and this statement essentially makes Boris in a worse position than May.

If he moves towards no deal, he'll be toppled by the 'One nation' camp, if he moves towards a deal that removes the Irish back-stop (Which previously was supposedly the only issue with May's deal- and that is a big call), some in the ERG will downvote the deal regardless. He'll essentially currently to stay in power need to reach across to Labour (as May had to) who are pushing for a GE asap (Its better for Labour that it happens before brexit due to the brexit party).

Currently it would appear Boris is moving in the direction of 'no deal'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...p-before-talks

Which is sure-fire guarantee of being toppled prior to delivering brexit (or arguably shortly after and then immediately seeking a reverse course, how far reverse depends on the GE results of course).

In other news, there are now major issues with the US trade deal, even with Boris, and even with assuming as will happen, the US taking the UK to the cleaners in the talks, its likely a US trade deal will be blocked by a Democrat controlled congress due to A)domestic politics and the upcoming presidential elections and B) The Irish back-stop, the Democrats following the Irish lobby.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49075764

Fox has admitted that trying to get trade deals is far more 'complicated and interesting' (Read 'difficult') than he had originally thought. This too is with places like Canada realizing on seeing Britain's proposed own tariffs (I.e. we're going free trade by just dropping them as low as possible) that in fact Canada did not need a trade deal with the UK, so there will be no reciprocation.

Britain's current free trade fantasy is literally out of our 1870 playbook, when we lowered all of our own tariffs to near 0 and kinda just expected everyone else to do the same out of a moral duty, despite that economically no reason to do so now (surprisingly it didn't happen and it was indeed a big blow as to why Britain ditched the idea of free trade and started to return to Imperial preference due to the export drought it created and the 'long depression' that lasted until 1901ish).

EDIT: The really interesting dynamic politically that i'm finding with this new chapter in the brexit saga is that we've actually now due to the very sleight majority, moved into a real where even the myriad of factions in Parliament no longer matter, now every single thing every single backbencher says and does has become incredibly weighty and importantly, literally able to decide the future of the Government and brexit. With both the big parties struggling to enforce discipline over their MP's this Parliament, and that splintering in both sides seemingly only getting worse, its going to be both fascinating and hellish to observe.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Does Johnson really believe, the EU will step back and left Ireland alone?

It would be the end of any credibility of the EU to foreign powers.

[Basil II the B.S]

Euronazi Officer Gunther Oettinger tries to blackmail Bojo like a typical godfather over ''due money''.
https://www.politico.eu/article/not-...-commissioner/
This is a guy known for things like ''the markets will teach the people that they shouldn't vote for populists''. If the UK leaves with no deal, it's thanks to idiots like this one. A German that never learns and a decades ago would have likely worked as a SS officer.