Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #2221

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    Unless it is willing to use militarism to enforce its dictates.
    It did in the Civil War and the Glorious Revolution. Parliament is sovereign, not any one individual or party.
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  2. #2222
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    When the WTO chief himself says the the UK will take a significant economic hit under no-deal/WTO rules , I'd say that anyone who says everything would be rosy if the UK is defenistrated from the EU and can manage on WTO terms is either wrong, badly misinformed, or is a liar.

    Also thanks to Trump it's going to be difficult to dispute issues if the UK finds itself suffering unreasonable tarriffs under WTO. Thanks to him the WTO's appelate body isn't functioning.
    As the US government is "boycotting" it, because they send no new judges.
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  3. #2223

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    So nationalism is not a right. Boo hoo.
    What an odd statement. No political position "is a right" in and of itself.

    The argument is that the UK being able to leave the EU proves it remains sovereign.
    That is correct, in a sense de jure.

    The UK should not leave the EU because leaving provides no tangible benefits, aside from wishful thinking, but carries many very real costs.
    The UK should not stay in the EU because remaining provides no tangible benefits, aside from wishful thinking, but carries many very real costs.

    Though I like how you're contradicting yourself once again: a few posts ago you said the United Kingdom should leave, now you're saying it shouldn't.

    The nationalist methods employed were awful. The end result, the successful union of nations, was not. But there is nothing that dictates that this way is the only way to get to that end result. This implies people can't learn from past mistakes.But having learnt from the past the EU operates differently. This is not an example of any one nation imposing its will on another. The EU only has whatever sovereignty it was willfully granted and is entirely dependent on the whims of its collective membership. That's what also makes the EU politically divided and weak and is one of the chief reasons why the project might fail. The method afterall is not tested.The EU has not yet succeeded.
    So your point really was just as limited as "some unions work"? I mean yeah, I know that the United Kingdom works. That's why I don't want Eurofederalists/imperialists using peaceful and successful polities, forged over centuries, as toys to indulge their ideological fantasies. We're already starting to tear our hair out over it - I wonder how far the arch remain contingent in Parliament, the press and academia are willing to go to get what they want.

    But irrespectively of whether the method can be improved, the goal is still a good goal as evidenced among other things by the benefits it brought to the UK.
    I can read Europhilic editorials in the Guardian you know.

    Yet here you are faulting the EU for it. I wonder if it's time to dig up the word hypocrisy again.
    So I'm a hypocrite for faulting the European Union for pursuing goals you've determined to be "good"? I'm laughing again.
    Last edited by Cope; June 27, 2019 at 11:42 AM.



  4. #2224
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Boris has declared in a interview, that the UK will leave the EU at 31. October in any case. He said:

    "Do or die".
    The "do or die" is generally attributed to Alfred Lord Tennyson's famous poem, "The Attack of the Light Brigade." This is about the assault of a British cavalry unit in the Crimean War of 1854. He fell to disaster because of confused orders - and later became a symbol of cadaver obedience, the failure of leaders and the heroic downfall in a hopeless situation.

    Nomen est omen?
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  5. #2225
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    That is correct, in a sense de jure.
    No, considering the UK already exercised the right and is in the process of leaving it's de facto.

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    The UK should not stay in the EU because remaining provides no tangible benefits, aside from wishful thinking, but carries many very real costs.

    Though I like how you're contradicting yourself once again: a few posts ago you said the United Kingdom should leave, now you're saying it shouldn't.
    Laughable. So the common market, all those freedoms its citizens enjoy, being a member of a powerful trading block etc etc and you are saying no tangible benefit?

    I'm not contradicting myself, you just twisted yet another thing I said in a petty attempt to score a point. But since I have to clarify. Yes the UK should not leave the EU. As I said it's an act of self-harm. But since the choice has been made, lets get it over with.

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    So I'm a hypocrite for faulting the European Union for pursuing goals you've determined to be "good"? I'm laughing again.
    It is hypocritical to praise a union of states in the case of the UK while accusing the EU for allegedly attempting to achieve the same goal yes. And how can you claim that I determined that goal to be "good" on my own? You praised it in the case of the UK. Or is that really all it is? Is it indeed just petty nationalism? If so, then I guess the only thing interesting here would be that British nationalists have not learnt from the example set by the UK, while others in Europe have.

  6. #2226

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    No, considering the UK already exercised the right and is in the process of leaving it's de facto.
    The United Kingdom is currently in a state of constitutional limbo. Despite the activation of A50, it does continue remain within the European Union and is subject to its treaties. Nevertheless, my comment was still correct because even in the event that the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, parliament will still have sovereignty de jure.

    Laughable. So the common market, all those freedoms its citizens enjoy, being a member of a powerful trading block etc etc and you are saying no tangible benefit?
    Not when balanced against the costs.

    I'm not contradicting myself, you just twisted yet another thing I said in a petty attempt to score a point. But since I have to clarify. Yes the UK should not leave the EU. As I said it's an act of self-harm. But since the choice has been made, lets get it over with.
    Yes, lets.

    It is hypocritical to praise a union of states in the case of the UK while accusing the EU for allegedly attempting to achieve the same goal yes. And how can you claim that I determined that goal to be "good" on my own? You praised it in the case of the UK. Or is that really all it is? Is it indeed just petty nationalism? If so, then I guess the only thing interesting here would be that British nationalists have not learnt from the example set by the UK, while others in Europe have.
    Supporting one union of states doesn't oblige me to support all unions of states. There are very specific reasons - historical, practical, theoretical and ideological - that I support the body politic of the United Kingdom. So, as with your other accusations of hypocrisy, you're jumping the gun on the reasoning.



  7. #2227
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    The United Kingdom is currently in a state of constitutional limbo. Despite the activation of A50, it does continue remain within the European Union and is subject to its treaties. Nevertheless, my comment was still correct because even in the event that the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, parliament will still have sovereignty de jure.
    Of course it will. And also de facto. Whether parliament is de jure sovereign was not in question.

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    Not when balanced against the costs.
    So now it's not that there aren't benefits. It's that they are too costly. I obviously disagree with that. But going back to Brexit, since we have established remaining has tangible benefits, what are the tangible benefits of leaving? What makes the cost of Brexit worth it?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    Supporting one union of states doesn't oblige me to support all unions of states. There are very specific reasons - historical, practical, theoretical and ideological - that I support the body politic of the United Kingdom. So, as with your other accusations of hypocrisy, you're jumping the gun on the reasoning.
    It's not about supporting specific unions, but the goal of unionization itself. That's what you accused the EU for attempting, considering your praise of the UK for having done the same, that is hypocritical. But yes there are very specific reasons for your preference. I already mentioned them above, they start with nation- and end with -alism.

  8. #2228

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post

    So now it's not that there aren't benefits. It's that they are too costly. I obviously disagree with that. But going back to Brexit, since we have established remaining has tangible benefits, what are the tangible benefits of leaving? What makes the cost of Brexit worth it?
    This has been answered countless times by me (and others) on this board. Since you've already agreed that the United Kingdom should leave the European Union, re-running the debates of the referendum campaign isn't something I have an interest in doing. You can read this instead:

    For the reasons you have stipulated, the concept and implementation of the nation state is inexact and imperfect. Language and culture are fluid entities which are not beholden to artificial borders and it is often the case that the culturally similar are politically parted (or the culturally dissimilar united) on account of geopolitical factors. Moreover, nationalism's preoccupation with "race" as a central criteria for nationhood is also deeply flawed; I have seen no evidence whatsoever which demonstrates why genetic background should be considered as a meaningful determining factor from which the nation should be derived.

    That said, the real question isn't "what are the faults with the nation state" but rather "which other method of deriving a political unit is superior"? This question of an alternative political unit is one which I've received no satisfactory answer to. I fail comprehend how, for instance, freely opening one's borders (and therefore one's democracy) to many millions of people from disparate communities not only around Europe but also around the world provides any basis for creating a more stable or prosperous society. Granted, drastically diluting the dominant cultural body of the nation is inevitably going to weaken the foundations upon which the nation state was erected - but to what pragmatic end? Clearly, the abolition of the nation state is the pragmatic end - but for what purpose? Are diverse societies inherently superior to homogeneous ones (not that any European nation state was homogeneous in the post war era anyway) or is cultural diversity simply the political flavor of the century? Could it be possible that we're living in such self-righteous societies that mass migration is just means by which we can "rub the right's nose in diversity?". This is, after all, very much the era of virtue signalling over practical action.

    That notwithstanding, the answer to the concerns one might have about the nation state is not simply to artificially erode it by haphazardly merging scores of diverse political units and economies together. We know that this can create deep social and economic problems - consider the Greek crisis again. Rather, the rational response is to cautiously reform it such that it can cope with modernity. That means augmenting systems which allow European countries to work together on global and pan European issues (such as global warming) without forcing them to outsource their national democracies. That means encouraging socio-political mechanisms which acknowledge immigration both as a benefit and as a necessity in globalized economies but which don't drastically compromise border controls or act to socially engineer multiculturalism. The idea that nation states must necessarily surrender control (in a de facto sense) in order to combat changing global circumstances is a false preposition.

    With that in mind, using the concept of globalism as an excuse to write off the usefulness of the nation state - and ergo abandon it - is in my view, flawed and dangerous. It fails to assess the virtues of the nation state and the ways in which it can become more flexible such that it can operate efficiently within an increasingly interconnected world. Naturally, the expected response to this manner of assertion would be to argue that Europe hasn't abandoned its nation states; after all, we still have national parliaments in every member state of the European Union - increasingly impotent though they are. The problem I have is that the abandonment of the traditional nation state seems to be the explicit goal of Europhiles. "Ever closer union" they say, without actually considering the pragmatic ramifications of that sentiment beyond what they've dreampt up in their Utopian federalist prisms. The irony, as I attempted to highlight in a previous post, is that European leaders know that the concept of nationhood provides the foundations for an optimal political unit. Their aim is simply to shift the goal posts outwards to artificially engender, by way of "affirming the European identity", a binding European nationality from which a single and legitimate centralized European government can be formed. That is to say that the supporters of Euro-federalism are simply attempting to destroy one interpretation of nationalism to reincarnate it as another without acknowledging the reality that their new nationalism it's going to be encumbered by the same problems and more.
    It's not about supporting specific unions, but the goal of unionization itself. That's what you accused the EU for attempting, considering your praise of the UK for having done the same, that is hypocritical.
    What tedious sophistry. Why do you insist on boring me with this rubbish? My support for the United Kingdom does not necessitate my support for the "unionization" of any other polities. So, no, as desperate as you are to accuse me of some sort of intellectual dishonesty, it isn't hypocritical.

    But yes there are very specific reasons for your preference. I already mentioned them above, they start with nation- and end with -alism.
    Nationalism implies that I feel a sense a superiority for my own ethnic group, which I don't. Though I can see that once again you have to rationalize different view points as either as being ignorant, predicated on some vulgar ideology or both. That sort of hubris in your own perspective won't get you far here I'm afraid.
    Last edited by Cope; June 27, 2019 at 04:45 PM.



  9. #2229
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    When the WTO chief himself says the the UK will take a significant economic hit under no-deal/WTO rules , I'd say that anyone who says everything would be rosy if the UK is defenistrated from the EU and can manage on WTO terms is either wrong, badly misinformed, or is a liar.

    Also thanks to Trump it's going to be difficult to dispute issues if the UK finds itself suffering unreasonable tarriffs under WTO. Thanks to him the WTO's appelate body isn't functioning.
    Its interesting as the issues for the UK with the WTO are finally rearing there head the closer to 'no-deal' we get. Add this with the issues of us being blocked by now various states from getting our schedules sorted (all holding out for money, legal changes or deals that are advantageous to them), including as strange as Taiwan who can be added to the US, Russia, Australia and Argentina etc who are currently either going to block or threatening to do so. The other factor is we still do not have either the level of manpower required for a viable post-brexit trade strategy, nor the experienced people. Indeed for some ridiculous reason the government has been successively shrinking the Foreign Office budget and even after brexit has not bothered to invest, but allowed it to continue to decline (https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-say-diplomats)- this has apparently led to the incredibly poor British response to global issues such as Ukraine and Syria as we lack the skills, networks and intelligence that we once had available.

    We have two candidates who both see 31st October as the 'red line', and yet frankly the country is nowhere near prepared, and there is no way of getting ready for that point, we apparently need minimum 6-8 more months (https://www.ft.com/content/a678db62-...d-b42f641eca37), i can certainly see a government collapse pending, again either from within the Tories, or for the new PM being forced to seek an actual majority to start passing legislation, as post 31st October, we'll need a whole lot of legislative changes and program if there is no deal in place and we leave (indeed a GE might be forced prior to that).

    -An interesting note which i'd been unaware of- when a government is VoNC'ed, they have 14 days to form a government, if they cannot then Labour are allowed to try and form a government, with no GE needed. They could literally walk into power... though i don't see their coalition being all that workable honestly, so a GE is very likely. But something to bear in mind about the weird rules of the Parliamentary democracy, Parliament is sovereign folks, the electorate get little to no say even if the opposition becomes the government...
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  10. #2230
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    Since you've already agreed that the United Kingdom should leave the European Union, re-running the debates of the referendum campaign isn't something I have an interest in doing.
    But that was my position from the beginning. It's not sth that changed during the course of this discussion. Since that's what the UK chose, let's get it over with.

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    What tedious sophistry. Why do you insist on boring me with this rubbish? My support for the United Kingdom does not necessitate support for the "unionization" of any other polities. So, no, as desperate as you are to accuse me of some sort of intellectual dishonesty, it isn't hypocritical.

    Nationalism implies that I feel a sense a superiority for my own ethnic group, which I don't. Though I can see that once again you have to rationalize different view points as either as being ignorant, predicated on some vulgar ideology or both. That sort of hubris in your own perspective won't get you far here I'm afraid.
    When the Brits do it, it's good. When others do it, it's bad. Employing double standards is a good indication of hypocrisy. Employing them in favour of your own nation is a sign of nationalism. If you could admit it, I could at least respect that. But you have to hide behind tangled excuses.

    Anyway, this discussion has run it's course I guess.
    Last edited by Alastor; June 27, 2019 at 05:03 PM.

  11. #2231

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post

    When the Brits do it, it's good. When others do it, it's bad.Employing double standards are a good indication of hypocrisy. Employing them in favour of your own nation is a sign of nationalism. If you could admit it, Icould at least respect that. But you have to hide behind tangled excuses.
    What a risible interpretation of my position. My view of the British union as beneficial is predicated on its context - on its history,economics and geopolitical situation. That perspective doesn't bind me to supporting all unions that do exist or could potentially exist on pain of accusations of hypocrisy. As I said, this is just you insisting that I must be guilty of some sort of intellectual dishonesty - which, incidentally, is itself intellectually dishonest. Though that just about sums up all of your"contributions" to this pointless exchange: you started with a false accusation of hypocrisy, and you've ended on one.



  12. #2232
    The Wandering Storyteller's Avatar Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I would say the discussion has not run its course. Come July, some very interesting pieces of history will be created in the next couple of months.

    Likewise I feel the Conservatives are like the GOT season 8 writers. Built up a lot of height and then splat!





















































  13. #2233

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post

    The UK should not stay in the EU because remaining provides no tangible benefits, aside from wishful thinking, but carries many very real costs.

    .
    Free trade is clearly a tangible benefit for business, free movement and certain rights , such as minimum holiday and sick pay are clearly beneficial to workers. Other regulations are clearly of benefit to the environment. I don't think you have thought this one through.


    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Its interesting as the issues for the UK with the WTO are finally rearing there head the closer to 'no-deal' we get. Add this with the issues of us being blocked by now various states from getting our schedules sorted (all holding out for money, legal changes or deals that are advantageous to them), including as strange as Taiwan who can be added to the US, Russia, Australia and Argentina etc who are currently either going to block or threatening to do so. The other factor is we still do not have either the level of manpower required for a viable post-brexit trade strategy, nor the experienced people. Indeed for some ridiculous reason the government has been successively shrinking the Foreign Office budget and even after brexit has not bothered to invest, but allowed it to continue to decline (https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-say-diplomats)- this has apparently led to the incredibly poor British response to global issues such as Ukraine and Syria as we lack the skills, networks and intelligence that we once had available.

    We have two candidates who both see 31st October as the 'red line', and yet frankly the country is nowhere near prepared, and there is no way of getting ready for that point, we apparently need minimum 6-8 more months (https://www.ft.com/content/a678db62-...d-b42f641eca37), i can certainly see a government collapse pending, again either from within the Tories, or for the new PM being forced to seek an actual majority to start passing legislation, as post 31st October, we'll need a whole lot of legislative changes and program if there is no deal in place and we leave (indeed a GE might be forced prior to that).

    -An interesting note which i'd been unaware of- when a government is VoNC'ed, they have 14 days to form a government, if they cannot then Labour are allowed to try and form a government, with no GE needed. They could literally walk into power... though i don't see their coalition being all that workable honestly, so a GE is very likely. But something to bear in mind about the weird rules of the Parliamentary democracy, Parliament is sovereign folks, the electorate get little to no say even if the opposition becomes the government...

    Does not help when the man in charge of Brexit planning quits together with the lady in charge of the Irish border policy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/27/brexit-civil-servant-in-charge-of-no-deal-planning-quits
    .


    If people are wondering why nothing is done about the state of our diplomatic service, public services and crime, note that there are 16,000 Civil Servants working on Brexit right now.


    As for Boris's recent comment on hard Brexit, it's a bit War of the Worlds.

    The chances of Brexit being hard
    Are a million to one, he said
    The chances of Brexit being hard
    Are a million to one, but still, it comes
    Last edited by mongrel; June 28, 2019 at 01:20 AM.
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  14. #2234
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Does not help when the man in charge of Brexit planning quits together with the lady in charge of the Irish border policy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/27/brexit-civil-servant-in-charge-of-no-deal-planning-quits
    .


    If people are wondering why nothing is done about the state of our diplomatic service, public services and crime, note that there are 16,000 Civil Servants working on Brexit right now.


    As for Boris's recent comment on hard Brexit, it's a bit War of the Worlds.

    The chances of Brexit being hard
    Are a million to one, he said
    The chances of Brexit being hard
    Are a million to one, but still, it comes

    Christ none of this surprises me. To bring it from the political to the personal now, but no matter what happens with the Conservative leadership contest, the fact is two morons are going to be in charge of the UK, both spouting policies that A) Cannot be met in spending terms B) are completely unrealistic. What's worse indeed is the 'no deal' . The UK objectively is not prepared, we do not have the infrastructure needed in place. Forget the tosh over 'but it'll strengthen our position', you can't frankly polish a turd, which is what Britan's trade position has been regarding the EU since Article 50 was activated because we had nothing prepared.

    Blows like this highlight that Boris and Hunt need to have a long think (or even better, will be toppled asap- the more the leadership contest has gone on, the more i'm afraid i've seen both as being political fantasists who will say anything to get into the position without regard for the reality of then delivering on any of it).

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...-brexit-latest

    Canada has essentially told Fox and the British delegation to piss off, they are unwilling in the event of a no-deal to continue trading on the same situation. This has left according to the express the British delegation spitting and humiliated. Frankly i'm not surprised. Canada joins the growing list of nations we've talked to who are all waiting and have said that they will negotiate for far better terms for themselves at Britain expense come brexit. The 'behind the scenes context' for this concerning Canada is that so it essentially has scuppered the Brexit policy idea that has been doing the rounds that Britain might be able to rely on its Commonwealth relations to help us through brexit and any no-deal scenario. After India's shooting down of this, plus Australia's antagonism currently its essentially the final blow of the 'big' Commonwealth economies that could have made a significant difference, thus i suspect the Government are going back to the drawing board.
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  15. #2235

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48869520

    So Ann Widdecombe complains about the electoral process in choosing the next EU Leader, on behalf of a party that doesn't have an elected leader. Throw in a few racially offensive remarks, add the afore mentioned idiocy and you have the perfect recipe for Brexit...

  16. #2236
    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Former MI6 head Sir John Sawers:

    "We are going through a political nervous breakdown here in the UK."We have potential prime ministers being elected by the Conservative Party now, [and] in the shape of the leader of the opposition, who do not have the standing that we have become used to in our top leadership.


    In the surprisingly frank exchange, Sir John said there were concerns in Whitehall about the direction the country is heading.

    "I think there is a lot of anxiety as we leave the European Union, we take a huge risk to our international standing, to the strength of the British economy."
    He said former prime minister David Cameron was "unwise" to call the EU referendum in 2016, adding that it had left the country "badly divided" and the UK's standing in the world "severely diminished".


    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48892102


    At my personal comment to the embarrassing behaviour of the Brexit Party Members during the opening session of the new EU parliament - turning their back during the European Anthem:

    Absolutely no manners.

    In response, EU Brexit co-ordinator Guy Verhofstadt said Ms Widdecombe was giving her party leader, Nigel Farage, "stiff competition as chief clown".
    Verhofstadt hit the nail.
    Last edited by Morticia Iunia Bruti; July 06, 2019 at 10:36 AM.
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  17. #2237
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen Sylva View Post
    Former MI6 head Sir John Sawers:

    "We are going through a political nervous breakdown here in the UK."We have potential prime ministers being elected by the Conservative Party now, [and] in the shape of the leader of the opposition, who do not have the standing that we have become used to in our top leadership.

    In the surprisingly frank exchange, Sir John said there were concerns in Whitehall about the direction the country is heading.
    "I think there is a lot of anxiety as we leave the European Union, we take a huge risk to our international standing, to the strength of the British economy."[I]He said former prime minister David Cameron was "unwise" to call the EU referendum in 2016, adding that it had left the country "badly divided" and the UK's standing in the world "severely diminished".
    I remember a time time when British civil servants, current or former, refrained from political commentary of any description, whether their opinions are seen as valid or not by others. This and the Corbyn leaks, reminds me too much of the sort of thing going on in the States which has been very corrosive to the functioning of government.
    At my personal comment to the embarrassing behaviour of the Brexit Party Members during the opening session of the new EU parliament - turning their back during the European Anthem:

    Absolutely no manners.
    I agree it was very bad manners to turn their backs, they shouldn't have stood up at all.

    They stood up because Parliament President Antonio Tajani had said sternly that he expected everyone to stand to the EU anthem, "Ode to Joy," Saying “You stand for the anthem of another country" Even though of course the EU is not a country.

    I bet the same people making a meal out of this stunt by the Brexit party, would have bleated about Donald Trump's criticism of American footballers kneeling during the US national anthem.

    If you look closely at the video, you will see a fair number of people (who had nothing to do with the Brexit party) not standing up to something which is not a national anthem.

  18. #2238

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    Canada has essentially told Fox and the British delegation to piss off, they are unwilling in the event of a no-deal to continue trading on the same situation. This has left according to the express the British delegation spitting and humiliated. Frankly i'm not surprised. Canada joins the growing list of nations we've talked to who are all waiting and have said that they will negotiate for far better terms for themselves at Britain expense come brexit. The 'behind the scenes context' for this concerning Canada is that so it essentially has scuppered the Brexit policy idea that has been doing the rounds that Britain might be able to rely on its Commonwealth relations to help us through brexit and any no-deal scenario. After India's shooting down of this, plus Australia's antagonism currently its essentially the final blow of the 'big' Commonwealth economies that could have made a significant difference, thus i suspect the Government are going back to the drawing board.
    When May announced policy was a 'hard' Brexit I started joking about Liam Fox swanning about and being photographed shaking hands with someone in Port Moresby or Maseru only for him to actually go ahead and do that. The trade deals that other nations were going to be "queueing up" to make are a joke. When you look at the list, apart from Norway, it's not good news unless you run a weird food shop that sells mostly sugar, bananas and quinoa.
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    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    But this is exactly what many were expecting to happen. Not only EVERY state feels Britain will negotiate from lesser power position then whole EU but what´s more, UK will be in bad spot due to time constrains and pressure from all sides. All the other states have to do, is to wait little longer...This will be another "easiest thing in human history".
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    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    The latest survation polling on Westminster voting intention (Highly relevant given the likely collapse of the government in a relatively short period of time). But some interesting stuff. Survation currently tend to be one of the best predictors of UK politics, being the only polling company to get the brexit ref (within error margin) and GE correct.

    The big stuff to take away from it, according to this poll and in fairness many others. The Tory leadership elections have had the desired effect, the Brexit Parties vote has decreased to the point where in this poll there is no change, they are 20% which is about right i'd say, it also falls nicely into my prediction that while the Breixt party within FPTP won't necessarily get anywhere (Though at best this result could give them 63 seats, providing the Tories don't put up a fight in those constituencies- however it could also give them 0), but they will drain votes more from the Tories than from Labour.

    The Tories have seen a drop too, this is the issue when both their current candidates are essentially poor choices to win a GE, both being polarizing and unable to reach across boundaries. So the Conservatives are sitting at 23% down -1 from the last poll.

    Labour are on 29%, and are +3, they are currently in a 6 point lead ahead of the Conservatives. A situation i'd argue is due to the weakness of the Conservative leadership candidates. While Corbyn also suffers from the same 'reach' problem, he does already (courtesy partly of being in opposition) have a far broader reach than either Hunt or Boris, whose GE crowds are fairly restricted in practice. If there was a snap GE soon on this Labour would get roughly 295 seats, the Tories would take a huge hit down to 163 due to the brexit party and their bleeding votes to Labour it would appear. I'm not sure whether this is due to Tory voters deserting because of Boris and Hunts comments over brexit, or more broadly that currently the cross-party support among the public is for anyone offering nationalization of key infrastructure, and Hunt and Boris have come out dead against this. Probably a bit of both.

    Labour however would be short 31 seats to get a majority.

    However the Tories and Brexit party even allied together (Which is highly unlikely, the Conservatives have all shot that idea down, and it would be dicey being in a coalition with a party who you share the same electoral space with) would not have enough though now to beat Labour. So its a Labour minority, or as we look the Lib-dems have 19% and no change (They are essentially like their opposites the Brexit party, stagnating again and are roughly where you would expect hard remainers to be- essentially even with the breixt party vote share), they would get roughly 65 seats (Though unlike the Brexit party due to FPTP the lib-dems are actually guaranteed at least 20 odd and maybe more given that they have a very solid local campaign machine).

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status...78561210576897


    So the next Tory leader, who by all accounts will be Boris (72% of the members vote at last polling with 2/3rds Tory members having already cast there postal vote by now- though i would say there has been some controversy here as apparently some Tory party members were actually given multiple voting sheets to use, this may rear its head after results day though in whose favour, and if they'll complain and damage an already fractured party from this process further, i'd hazard not) is in the incredibly difficult position of it likely his government will fall from a variety of ways over the short-term (which is meant to be the 'honey-moon' period for any new leader) from the technical, to the VoNC to internal split (The Tory majority is now, with the DUP only 3... Boris has according to the FT last week made conflicting promises to many MP's to get their support, delivering this alone is going to be hell, let alone the persistent group of remainers/Anti-Boris MPs who have stated they'll throw in the towel in varying circumstances for the government), also Boris might be forced to hold a GE (something he has refused to rule out) as he simply does not have the majority to do anything. Currently even if he navigates successfully through the GE traps, he's just going to be May mark 2 due to parliamentary vote share.

    The difficulty now of course is that again due to the Brexit party being diminished, but still eating vote share, its likely Labour will start any GE with a significant lead, and Corbyn excels on the Campaign trail (less so in Westminster). What's worse, this poll was taken after the BBC panorama show on anti-semitism in the Labour party. While you may feel it was a hatchet job, or that the details are shocking, it doesn't matter. Apparently the public at large now give no to this, and Labour actually has gained votes. The anti-semitic issue, like many other stuff thrown at Labour (terrorist supporting charges, traitor etc) has essentially been used politically to the point its lost any real political effect. This in a purely political context is trouble for the Tories, particularly when currently the Conservatives have undermined their own 'go-to' card of economic stewardship. There are no strengths to their GE position beyond 'we'll deliver brexit by the 31st/Christmas if you're Hunt', its too late in this context to be able to build up a serious domestic agenda that could compete with Labour's, who essentially have done nothing but that, ignoring brexit as far as possible. It really is like even with a new leader, the Conservatives have given up on trying to stay in power.

    What does this mean for brexit? A lot actually. Again sustainable brexit at electoral and parliamentary levels are necessary for anyone to get their vision to stick. This poll is the death knell of that if it continues. For instance Boris could take us out come what may by the 31st, but a GE would shortly have to follow any hard brexit due to the parliamentary majority issue of 3. Either his own party will do as threatened and topple their own government, or Boris would have to seek a majority himself to do any of the hundreds of things that a post-brexit context needs. Its like that without the promise of brexit, the Tories will be polling even lower (0 domestic vision), and you'll get Labour- in a hard brexit, its likely Labour will immediately reverse this, and sign up to their customs union with the EU (Which is essentially an 'easier' May's deal that keeps no border by becoming a Norway-esque position regarding the EU). Thus the point of Boris and his work is undone. If the lib-dems are in coalition with Labour, expect a far more remain style position, or indeed potentially given the Labour party and membership are pro-remain (Only Corbyn and his small cabal are actually brexiteers) you may get remain. Its worth nothing too that any position on brexit Labour make, they now usually caveat it with a second referendum for a mandate. The questions of those referendum would be the Labour Brexit vs Remain... the political context thus essentially shifts to 'how deep in the EU do we want to be'.

    It might even be the case that the government is toppled before they even manage to deliver brexit, in which case see above.

    The Conservatives and their brexit voting elements have essentially dropped the ball (as i've consistently said) on brexit. They have failed to look longer-term and have been so focused on getting out the EU, they haven't bothered to ensure that this decision sticks over the next few weeks, let along months or years. They have allowed their party to be consumed not by brexit, but by the withdrawal agreement of brexit. They have put up leadership candidates (see Boris) who are also only fixated on this date and give very little thought to the aftermath or how to stay in power beyond hoping and praying. While we could say that this is due to the existence of the brexit party, this has been an issue for the Tories long before they appeared. However ironically the Brexit party essentially ensure that Labour will be the ones to get their brexit vision implemented and not the Conservatives or Brexit party.

    Now Corbyn could mess up, maybe a new scandal erupts (and it would have to be a new one, as mentioned this poll comes in after the anti-semitism has reached its crescendo with the BBC doc into it), but he's up again Boris...whose even more likely to mess up in a way that the wider electorate dislikes (as indeed we saw earlier). This goes back to my original point, the leadership elections do not matter currently and i suspect the Tories are going to lose control of the Brexit process totally, most likely shortly after the 31st in the coming weeks, or perhaps even before.
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