Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?
Originally Posted by
ep1c_fail
I don't disagree that whoever wins the Conservative Party leadership election is almost certain to have a difficult time in any forthcoming general election if the Brexit issue is not settled (or at least on the road toward being settled) prior to then. That said, it isn't definitive that Parliament will fail to reach any sort of consensus minus a general election. The dynamics are complicated, but its perfectly possible that Labour moderates in safe Brexit voting seats will push a Hunt/Johnson deal over the line in the hopes of disarming both the Corbynites and the external threat posed to Parliamentary stability by UKIP and the Liberal Democrats.
Indeed, Though of course that's if Johnson or Hunt can even get a deal, the EU currently have reiterated that their not going to renegotiate, plus their is a limited span when the EU are actually available to negotiate that some commentators are saying is basically not enough time. The deal on the table would most likely be essentially May's, with some re-wording (ironically May's might pass). For Labour MP's to vote in favour of the government though, could possibly happen, but i would emphasize this is the most unlikely of all outcomes, it would damage them and their party beyond repair as they would tie themselves in the blame of the post-brexit fallout, instead of being able to capitalize on it. You'd have to have a major fall-out with Corbyn, which is unlikely given that Corbyn is fighting their corner currently in avoiding placing a second ref as the central policy. Boris or Hunt might indeed be forced to take May's deal with presentation edits, to get out by the 31st, but of course politically that's still fraught as equally as no-deal is and may cause a snap-GE regardless. this is the most unlikely of all outcomes, it would damage them and their party beyond repair as they would tie themselves in the blame of the post-brexit fallout, instead of being able to capitalize on it. You'd have to have a major fall-out with Corbyn, which is unlikely given that Corbyn is fighting their corner currently in avoiding placing a second ref as the central policy. Boris or Hunt might indeed be forced to take May's deal with presentation edits, to get out by the 31st, but of course politically that's still fraught as equally as no-deal is and may cause a snap-GE regardless.
Originally Posted by
caratacus
But there are at least three involved in this incident not just Boris Johnson. Himself, his partner (it takes two to create an argument) and the politically motivated neighbour. I cannot see there is enough mud here to stick, at least as far as we know. What happened to the recordings? Could there be more embarrassing incidents recorded? It seems to me that the neighbour probably had been eavesdropping well before he called the police, maybe over the course of months. Could that be the reason Johnson is so reluctant to admit to something that most couples experience at some time. The timing of this all seems very suspicious given this stage in the leadership contest. As far as I am aware fits of rage are not something associated with Boris Johnson. The interview with Ian Dale however, certainly didn't do him any favours and resulted in another days bad headlines. Unless anything else comes out, this probably won't cause long lasting damage.
I do agree, and his partner in fairness should have known better, she is his spin doctor, though that still then doesn't speak to him having the right team or skills himself for this. I personally think that the act of recording this was absolutely politically motivated, the issue for me that i've been banging on about is that it shows a severe error of judgement by Boris (and his team) in regards to the bread and butter of politics. The incident was damaging not because of it itself, but the way Boris and his people failed to spin it or even seemingly bother to control the story. This time, i do agree with you, its unlikely to cause lasting damage or be the 'issue' that breaks the camels back but it shows Boris has a severe weakness that may cost him later (lack of media skills), i suspect this is because at lower his antics are 'Boris being Boris' in the media, but at FO (which he should have realized in fairness) and then running for leadership the media are totally different beasts (as major found particularly) being very negative (Speaking about the right-wing press, the Guardian and Indy of course have always been gunning for him), its something he thus far has failed to compensate for, and i'm wondering (given his time at FO and the lack of ability to protect from the media, though May lets face it, didn't really have any driving reasons to defend him, its arguable if the post wasn't just to highlight how inadequate he is for office as a punishment position) if its something he can ever develop.
Aye, the handling today has been poor (again the story could have been gone and done with but for Johnson or his teams choices over this), it will die down. It'll be interesting though to see if Hunt can or will capitalize on this chance, i know yesterday he was keen to attempt to make this contest about 'Character' (Though Hunt has a lot of skeletons in his closet regarding expense scandals, so perhaps glass houses and all that).
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