Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Its Johnson vs Hunt.

Or Joker vs boring Clark Kent or Peter Parker.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Brecon and Radnorshire (Wales) By-election has just been triggered (date pending). The Tory MP Chris Davies there has been recalled by his own constituents who put in a recall petition after he was convicted of falsifying expense claims.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...box=1561113646

Essentially its down to his weird idea of forging expense documents for paintings for his constituency office, he still maintains it was a mistake (despite being convicted), but he literally took the time and effort to forge documents, when there was an actual simple legitimate process to go through. At a point when corruption and expense scandals are very sensitive topics for the Conservatives particulary (playing into an image they had gone to great lengths to reform), this is pretty incompetent and damaging stuff.

The judge of this said-

In sentencing in April, the judge, Mr Justice Edis, told Davies: “It seems shocking that when confronted with a simple accounting problem you thought to forge documents. That is an extraordinary thing for a man with your position and your background to do.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...gGHAeMM1MCxu_4

Its apparently deemed unlikely the Conservatives will be able to hold the seat- partly due to the leadership election meaning the party which already has struggled to campaign in a functional way will be in an even less ready state, but also, and here is the kicker, the Conservatives have not barred Chris Davies from being their candidate again (https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b0a3941860a6a1)... that's a huge handicap to go in with.

More info-

A by-election will be held in Brecon and Radnorshire after 10,005 people signed a petition to remove the constituency's Conservative MP, Chris Davies.Mr Davies had been convicted of a false expenses claim in March.
A total of 5,303 names were needed to trigger a fresh poll.
Recall petitions are launched for a number of reasons including when MPs are convicted of providing false information about their expenses.
In 2017 Chris Davies's majority was 8,038.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48720176


Some commentators seem to think it might be a Labour or Brexit party win, though in 2017 the lib-dems were the party who received second place.

What this does mean though. Essentially pending some amazing campaigning (perhaps unlikely currently as the Tories are in a mess and going through a leadership contest), that whoever gets to be the next PM, without this would be very unlikely to stay as PM due to an already hostile arithmetic (this is even with the DUP) getting far worse. I'll have to re-check but i've seen it banded around that even with the DUP the Tories majority will be 2 with the loss of this MP (I thought it was around 5-7, but either way, we're talking government collapse territory over tiny issues, let alone brexit and how divided the Tories are over that, particularly with the candidates now being Hunt vs Boris- polarizing figures both within the party).

EDIT: I was right the governments majority is currently including the DUP, 6 (https://www.theguardian.com/politics...gGHAeMM1MCxu_4). The loss of this constituency would see them down to 5 (And indeed the DUP have no been 'solid' allies to the Conservative government, on several times they have voted against them, or forced a complete u turn on government policy), so we're talking indeed a hell of a time for a new PM, and i think likely to be toppled by any internal Tory faction who doesn't like him or his policies. We've had the ERG threaten to split from the party if the new leader is now out by the 31st October, we've also had the three somewhat different factions of Greive, Clarke and Hammond (Who head or are part of different 'soft/remain groups) also state on record they would be willing to topple the government- all in slightly different circumstances, some for 'Hard brexit/no deal', others for the government trying to override and go over Parliament. Its going to be blast come the ascension of either Boris or Hunt i think, particularly because Boris apparently has made all sorts of contradictory promises to the different groups of brexiteers and remainers to get their support and win in the short term. When it comes to delivering on that we may see a melt down.

[caratacus]

Brecon and Radnorshire (Wales) By-election has just been triggered (date pending). The Tory MP Chris Davies there has been recalled by his own constituents who put in a recall petition after he was convicted of falsifying expense claims.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...box=1561113646

Essentially its down to his weird idea of forging expense documents for paintings for his constituency office, he still maintains it was a mistake (despite being convicted), but he literally took the time and effort to forge documents, when there was an actual simple legitimate process to go through. At a point when corruption and expense scandals are very sensitive topics for the Conservatives particulary (playing into an image they had gone to great lengths to reform), this is pretty incompetent and damaging stuff.

The judge of this said- https://www.theguardian.com/politics...gGHAeMM1MCxu_4

Its apparently deemed unlikely the Conservatives will be able to hold the seat- partly due to the leadership election meaning the party which already has struggled to campaign in a functional way will be in an even less ready state, but also, and here is the kicker, the Conservatives have not barred Chris Davies from being their candidate again (https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b0a3941860a6a1)... that's a huge handicap to go in with.

Yes, extremely stupid thing to have done, especially since the MPs expenses scandal some years ago created such damaging impressions in the public eye of politicians. This compared to many of those cases however seems minor, in the context of the actual amount being claimed and the fact that he could have obtained the same amount of cash through legitimate means. It is the act of forging documents that is the most damaging to his integrity and reputation.

The petition against him is understandable, but I don't think the matter is damaging enough to the interests of his constituents, that he should not be allowed to stand in the forthcoming by-election. It is a matter between him and his constituency party. If he was asked to step aside, it would in effect end his parliamentary career. However, it is a failing of the present Parliamentary system, that any MP who is convicted in a court of law, should not automatically have their seat taken from them and a by-election be called.

Chris Davies is a lifelong Euro-Sceptic and member of the ERG, and if he did step aside or loose the by-election, it is bound to alter the faction makeup within this minority government, already looking likely to implode through rebellious Remainers. However, given the state of Brexit at the moment, I doubt that the Conservatives will retain this seat whoever stands for them.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Yes, extremely stupid thing to have done, especially since the MPs expenses scandal some years ago created such damaging impressions in the public eye of politicians. This compared to many of those cases however seems minor, in the context of the actual amount being claimed and the fact that he could have obtained the same amount of cash through legitimate means. It is the act of forging documents that is the most damaging to his integrity and reputation.

The petition against him is understandable, but I don't think the matter is damaging enough to the interests of his constituents, that he should not be allowed to stand in the forthcoming by-election. It is a matter between him and his constituency party. If he was asked to step aside, it would in effect end his parliamentary career. However, it is a failing of the present Parliamentary system, that any MP who is convicted in a court of law, should not automatically have their seat taken from them and a by-election be called.

Chris Davies is a lifelong Euro-Sceptic and member of the ERG, and if he did step aside or loose the by-election, it is bound to alter the faction makeup within this minority government, already looking likely to implode through rebellious Remainers. However, given the state of Brexit at the moment, I doubt that the Conservatives will retain this seat whoever stands for them.

Indeed, don't get me wrong, i don't see this personally as particularly criminal at all, but in terms of stupidity (It technically as far as i can see didn't even have to be illegal, there was a legal method of getting some kind of subsidies for it, but for whatever reason he decided to create forged documents...) and political damage in terms of for his party, and his own standing, i think its quite significant. A by-election is going ahead, and it would sensible if the Tories wished to not have a further handicap in what will be a hard struggle (I agree they are unlikely to retain the seat as it stands), then ditch him as damaged goods.

The successful recall petition from his own constituents will mean a by-election now has to go ahead, so that's something at least (and its clear he should definently not stand-again, though the constituency party seems happy for him to do so, legally fine, politically an error), but there definently should be an automatic mechanism of if an MP is convicted of an offense, they are immediately deemed unfit for public office and have to stand again.

The impact this will have on the arithmetic is going to be interesting.

Also in broader news.... Boris, Boris Boris... Day 1 and he's lost control of the media narrative:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...s-altercation/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/934935...friend-police/

'bust up' has been used by the record, 'altercation' by the telegraph, mail and co. 'Screaming and slamming' etc.

Essentially the narrative is Police were called by neighbours to the Boris household after they heard screaming and shouting (Some papers are reporting snippets of the conversation- 'betrayal', 'messed everything up') as they were concerned for the safety of Boris's partner. The Police are on record as saying they were there in response to a call, but they found no cause for them to be concerned- no violence. It was just a screaming argument between partners. Factually then its a non-case, although it is rather rare for couples to be arguing so furiously their screaming (At least that's my experience, i've also just talked things through, maybe i'm lucky )

But, the media damage is done, and Boris has lost control of the narrative from the event, its context and his response, on the first damn day vs Hunt. It doesn't matter that this wasn't serious, or essentially that for anyone else it would be a rather non-story, couples fight, some couples have massive rows.

But just google the papers and their headlines- left and right wing press, even press ostensibly supportive of Johnson. He gave a statement that failed to actually address or refute anything about these circumstances (Thus feeding the media). Boris also has a politically dicey reputation when it comes to partners, arguments and fidelity, so its a particular weak spot, especially as its an area that contextually never looks good for the man in question in the press. While in this day and age, we could indeed fairly argue private life- it shouldn't matter. But it does have an impact.

The commentators on the BBC have said essentially that the timing, context, what it was, and his past will present an uncomfortable start for colleges and the membership, especially as its self-inflicted issue.

I said earlier that this leadership contest is Boris's to lose, he is his own worst enemy, and here we have an unnecessary and mishandled negative press cycle centering on him on the very day he made it to the final two. So going forward, maybe Hunt might be in for a chance if this is what day 1 is giving him...

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Boris is really the Joker. Hopefully Harley Quinn is alright...^^

It doesn't matter, who will win this.

It will so or so only be this Brexit deal or no deal.

Even more as Mister Barnier now is candidate for the chief office of the EU commision.

France and i think Germany and Netherlands also won't damage Barnier by making a new deal.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Boris is really the Joker. Hopefully Harley Quinn is alright...^^

It doesn't matter, who will win this.

It will so or so only be this Brexit deal or no deal.

Even more as Mister Barnier now is candidate for the chief office of the EU commision.

France and i think Germany and Netherlands also won't damage Barnier by making a new deal.

Indeed, at best for whoever wins this they become May mk.2 due to the arithmetic.

But what's also likely is a snap-GE is called, either by the new PM to try and get something to work with (remember its not just leaving the EU, its all the legislation that comes with it in a post-brexit environment, the next huge political battle is going to be the post-brexit vision...a debate that has been kicked down the road when it should have been happening consecutively, but turned out too controversial as it fractures the existing factions into even smaller parts), or more likely one of the three big 'remain' Tory factions who are now on record as being prepared to bring down their own government if various types of no-deal are sought, or Parliament is sidelined.

Not to mention the DUP are not solid allies for the Conservatives. So at this rate the new PM may enjoy their position for a good 10 minutes (or more likely a mere few weeks).

A new leaders resolves absolutely nothing, but indeed crates further political problems for the Conservatives and as we're seeing deepens the divides as opposed to healing them. This is especially true in light of an earlier FT piece that i think i posted here that Boris has been going around getting support by promising contradictory things to different MP's that cannot be delivered upon without alienating others, but this is Boris all over, a very short-term political thinker. He's got a plan to get to power, but hasn't given any thought to holding it, or how his path to power has actually made holding onto its even harder than it previously was.

[caratacus]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/21/police-called-home-boris-johnson-girlfriend-reports-altercation/[/URL]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/934935...friend-police/

'bust up' has been used by the record, 'altercation' by the telegraph, mail and co. 'Screaming and slamming' etc.

Essentially the narrative is Police were called by neighbours to the Boris household after they heard screaming and shouting (Some papers are reporting snippets of the conversation- 'betrayal', 'messed everything up') as they were concerned for the safety of Boris's partner. The Police are on record as saying they were there in response to a call, but they found no cause for them to be concerned- no violence. It was just a screaming argument between partners. Factually then its a non-case, although it is rather rare for couples to be arguing so furiously their screaming (At least that's my experience, i've also just talked things through, maybe i'm lucky )

But, the media damage is done, and Boris has lost control of the narrative from the event, its context and his response, on the first damn day vs Hunt. It doesn't matter that this wasn't serious, or essentially that for anyone else it would be a rather non-story, couples fight, some couples have massive rows.

But just google the papers and their headlines- left and right wing press, even press ostensibly supportive of Johnson. He gave a statement that failed to actually address or refute anything about these circumstances (Thus feeding the media). Boris also has a politically dicey reputation when it comes to partners, arguments and fidelity, so its a particular weak spot, especially as its an area that contextually never looks good for the man in question in the press. While in this day and age, we could indeed fairly argue private life- it shouldn't matter. But it does have an impact.

The commentators on the BBC have said essentially that the timing, context, what it was, and his past will present an uncomfortable start for colleges and the membership, especially as its self-inflicted issue.

I said earlier that this leadership contest is Boris's to lose, he is his own worst enemy, and here we have an unnecessary and mishandled negative press cycle centering on him on the very day he made it to the final two. So going forward, maybe Hunt might be in for a chance if this is what day 1 is giving him...

This incident is bizaarre and very inconvenient for Boris Johnson but understandable given the stress Johnson is probably in and his partner. Anyone who has had to prepare for an interview for a new job knows what that is about and this leadership contest to be PM is an altogether different level. People have rows, it is normal. What seems strange is that incident was recorded by the neighbour before they called the police. Perhaps there is a lesson for politicians not to live in terraced houses with thin walls, no matter how posh, if you wish to be a future Prime Minister. Let alone, dabble with illegal substances.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

This incident is bizaarre and very inconvenient for Boris Johnson but understandable given the stress Johnson is probably in and his partner. Anyone who has had to prepare for an interview for a new job knows what that is about and this leadership contest to be PM is an altogether different level. People have rows, it is normal. What seems strange is that incident was recorded by the neighbour before they called the police. Perhaps there is a lesson for politicians not to live in terraced houses with thin walls, no matter how posh, if you wish to be a future Prime Minister. Let alone, dabble with illegal substances.

Haha completely indeed. I suspect the neighbour did that for the fame or the political point scoring/damage it would cause (maybe they were a Gove fan?). But its a mess that is strange, weird, and totally unnecessary and exactly the kind of screw-up you expect from Boris, who at the pinnacle of maybe getting it all right, having had a solid mostly gaffe-free week, goes and starts to damage his own chances in what was a clear field. I would compare for interest this with the raging rows Cherie and Tony Blair had for instance, at least they were (prior to getting into office at least) sensible enough indeed not to have them in an urban setting (Prior to 1997 they spent a lot of time out at various rural friends when they needed to hash stuff out- Alastair's diaries are interesting for many things, most of all though how essentially every other week they all went into the country seemingly to have a major shouting match at each other ).

[caratacus]

Haha completely indeed. I suspect the neighbour did that for the fame or the political point scoring/damage it would cause (maybe they were a Gove fan?). But its a mess that is strange, weird, and totally unnecessary and exactly the kind of screw-up you expect from Boris, who at the pinnacle of maybe getting it all right, having had a solid mostly gaffe-free week, goes and starts to damage his own chances in what was a clear field.

Indeed, I guess Johnson requires 24hr supervision until he gets the keys to No10. I expect the neighbours to that terraced house are more trustworthy there.

I would compare for interest this with the raging rows Cherie and Tony Blair had for instance, at least they were (prior to getting into office at least) sensible enough indeed not to have them in an urban setting (Prior to 1997 they spent a lot of time out at various rural friends when they needed to hash stuff out- Alastair's diaries are interesting for many things, most of all though how essentially every other week they all went into the country seemingly to have a major shouting match at each other ).

That's funny, I didn't know that . I guess that's why Chequers is in the countryside, to enable a PM and their spouse to get away from No10 in case the occupant of no11 has their ear to the party wall.

[Exarch]

The english people screwed themselves over with Brexit and now they must pay. France is going to enjoy this.

[Basil II the B.S]

Did Bojo just blow up his candidacy?

[95thrifleman]

Did Bojo just blow up his candidacy?

Interesting how the Guardian gets the tape around 12 hours after the incident. I smell a rat here.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Indeed, I guess Johnson requires 24hr supervision until he gets the keys to No10. I expect the neighbours to that terraced house are more trustworthy there.


That's funny, I didn't know that . I guess that's why Chequers is in the countryside, to enable a PM and their spouse to get away from No10 in case the occupant of no11 has their ear to the party wall.

That sketch has just made my morning i think , so damn perfect. Indeed eventually at least, at the start he'll still have arch nemesis Hammond there next door for at least a day or two doing some serious wall listening no doubt.

I think you've hit the nail on the head about Chequers, sometimes you just need space from your Chancellor

Did Bojo just blow up his candidacy?

He may have, or at least its going to be quite damaging. It's headlining everywhere, the Daily Mail has slapped right across the front page the quote:

'Get off me... get out of my flat'.

He's totally lost control of the narrative and there is very little he can do because of the situation to 'fix' things. All he can do is wait and see if/when the papers get bored and move on, and what damage its left in its wake. But yeah, its not great to have this self-inflicted screw-up so early, particularly if its as some are saying, he's been caught having an affair again' (It doens't even have to be true, just enough people have to imply it, which is what i think the Mail was going for, its either he's had an affair/the headline allows people to believe he laid hands on her in 'some' way- with his past history the implication is just as damaging politically).

[Cope]

Did Bojo just blow up his candidacy?

No one - least of all Tory voters - cares about a contrived Guardian hit piece lol. It didn't work against Trump, it didn't work against Corbyn and it isn't going to work against Johnson.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Interesting how the Guardian gets the tape around 12 hours after the incident. I smell a rat here.

I'ts not the Guardian that's the problem, its the right-wing press who are essentially doing a hatchet job. In terms of a rat- sure, Boris ed up massively- when you're running for high office, very few people are your friends and 'privacy' is literally a luxury. He was foreign sec and should know this. But yeah, his neighbours recorded his screaming fight and either for political or personal gain have capitalized, Boris then lost control of the narrative (and indeed if he tries to take the line that its 'private', it makes him look even worse, its the perfect storm to be caught in).

And lets be honest, Boris is politically incompetent, always has been, he's sailed on the fact though he's 'loveable' and was not in particularly high office, so the Press are quite forgiving as the mistakes reported are better served taking an 'amusing' angle for readership. They build him up (even as Foreign Sec when he took such a hit for essentially being absolutely unfit for his role, he could always rely on the cover May as PM provided in terms of the press). Running for leadership/being PM, everything changes, positive press is hard to come by and the attitude changes. Just look at how Thatcher, Major, Blair and even Cameron with a broadly solid press base suffered. On their 'way up' all had very positive press, but once in leadership all commented how hostile the press became (To the point that Major took it very personally, reporters who had previously 'built him up' against Thatcher, once he'd won, very swiftly turned on him and buried the Hatchet and he genuinely could not understand it).

No one - least of all Tory voters - cares about a contrived Guardian hit piece lol. It didn't work against Trump, it didn't work against Corbyn and it isn't going to work against Johnson.

Its not the Guardian, its everywhere. Front page of Sun, Daily Mail (those two indeed are the most damaging headlines), Times, Mirror (of course) etc. The hits on Corbyn didn't work (Though they did somehwhat in polarizing his potential reach) because there was already an oppositional narrative of us vs them regarding the right-wing media (Of which the left-wing media could also be neatly slotted into). These are 'friendly fire' instances, so somewhat different, in terms of voters both membership and General public, the former it will probably damage a bit (i don't think its likely it might be the end- it depends on how effectively Boris can retake the narrative and move this on, thus far he's not been very good on that), for the public though, a Boris led Tory party is already going to struggle in a GE, this is doing no favours to the out-reach needed (And again a GE is very likely, in that regard more screw-ups like this and anyone toppling the government have even more ammunition to justify it).

Its factually a small issue, but politically its a great big pile of crap that Boris has poured all over himself.

EDIT now the Mail online is also getting in on it with a large write-up that is slanted cheekily towards the negative about the situation-

• Several neighbours described the altercation as 'the worst they've ever heard'
• One MP warned it could seriously damage Mr Johnson's Tory leadership campaign
• Another said that the clash between Miss Symonds and Mr Johnson was their 'worst nightmare'
• Security Minister Ben Wallace deleted a tweet defending Mr Johnson over the dramatic bust-up
• Mr Johnson appeared not to have told his campaign team about the police's visit to the flat he shares with Miss Symonds
  
  One neighbour told the Telegraph: 'I heard the row, it was pretty loud. I was quite worried to be honest, it was bad.
  'I heard a lot of smashing - it sounded like plates or glasses - and I could hear her shouting. It was definitely her, I didn't hear him. There was a lot of shouting and swearing. It didn't last that long, maybe five minutes. It was unusual because it's very quiet around here. We don't usually here things like this.'
  Two police cars and a van arrived within minutes, shortly after midnight, but left after receiving reassurances from both the individuals in the flat that they were 'safe and well'.
  Neighbours told the Times they had not even realised that Mr Johnson had been living in the apartment until earlier this week.
  One said: 'Boris has been visiting for six to nine months. I think he lives there now because of the frequency we see him. He leaves the house about 8am and he gets picked up by his minders.'
  Mr Johnson was caught out as the words used by Ms Symonds - 'get off me' and 'get out of my flat' - were picked up on a neighbour's phone.
  Miss Symond's flat occupies the first floor of a converted semi-detached Georgian villa.
  It is not clear whether the neighbour who recorded the row lives in the same building, either above or below, or on the first floor of the adjoining house.
  A senior MP told Mail Online: 'Boris is clearly the favourite in this leadership race but four weeks is a very long time in politics.
  'He's got 16 hustings, all of which are going to be televised… a lot can change.
  'I think a lot of Conservative members are waiting to see the outcome of the debates and things like that.
  'This might well play into their concerns about him. You are talking about Conservative Party activists… there are lots of different types of people.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-Symonds.html

So now that is every major paper either in print running as headline (as mentioned Mail and Sun are the most damaging due to their purposeful skirting of the 'implication', but online its hammering too.

The big points though (if we're fed up of me talking about the importance of controlling media spin- i god damn it, Boris didn't even tell his campaign team and media advisers that this had happened, so no wonder the stories escaped and escalated, another error), but Tory MP's seem to feel this could have a rather big impact upon how the membership feels about Boris as it plays into there fears- but also this wasn't just a Guardian job. It was multiple neighbors, all talking to different papers (so politically Boris can't spin this off as a left-wing press attack, as the story was not just broken by the Guardian, but instead we have the Times and Telegraph also 'on scene' so to speak).

Will this be as one Tory MP puts it 'the shortest leadership contest in history'? I don't think so, though it is damaging and it has highlighted that Boris is unprepared, and apparently the bust up is with the woman who is his head 'spin doctor'- she was his head communications manager and is behind his change in appearance and public behaviour (i.e. bumbling less than usual in speeches, hair-cut, fitted suits etc). That neither he nor she warned their team about the argument (to be ready for all this, which clearly they are not), i think it shows they have a lot to learn (indeed the defence sec tweeted in support of Boris...then deleted it a few seconds later, their is no media strategy in place from Team Boris yet), and indeed another few self-inflicted gaffes like this could see Boris's ambition in tatters.

[Cope]

Its not the Guardian, its everywhere. Front page of Sun, Daily Mail (those two indeed are the most damaging headlines), Times, Mirror (of course) etc. The hits on Corbyn didn't work (Though they did somehwhat in polarizing his potential reach) because there was already an oppositional narrative of us vs them regarding the right-wing media (Of which the left-wing media could also be neatly slotted into). These are 'friendly fire' instances, so somewhat different, in terms of voters both membership and General public, the former it will probably damage a bit (i don't think its likely it might be the end- it depends on how effectively Boris can retake the narrative and move this on, thus far he's not been very good on that), for the public though, a Boris led Tory party is already going to struggle in a GE, this is doing no favours to the out-reach needed (And again a GE is very likely, in that regard more screw-ups like this and anyone toppling the government have even more ammunition to justify it).

Its factually a small issue, but politically its a great big pile of crap that Boris has poured all over himself.

EDIT now the Mail online is also getting in on it with a large write-up that is slanted cheekily towards the negative about the situation-

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-Symonds.html

So now that is every major paper either in print running as headline (as mentioned Mail and Sun are the most damaging due to their purposeful skirting of the 'implication', but online its hammering too.

The big points though (if we're fed up of me talking about the importance of controlling media spin- i god damn it, Boris didn't even tell his campaign team and media advisers that this had happened, so no wonder the stories escaped and escalated, another error), but Tory MP's seem to feel this could have a rather big impact upon how the membership feels about Boris as it plays into there fears- but also this wasn't just a Guardian job. It was multiple neighbors, all talking to different papers (so politically Boris can't spin this off as a left-wing press attack, as the story was not just broken by the Guardian, but instead we have the Times and Telegraph also 'on scene' so to speak).

Will this be as one Tory MP puts it 'the shortest leadership contest in history'? I don't think so, though it is damaging and it has highlighted that Boris is unprepared, and apparently the bust up is with the woman who is his head 'spin doctor'- she was his head communications manager and is behind his change in appearance and public behaviour (i.e. bumbling less than usual in speeches, hair-cut, fitted suits etc). That neither he nor she warned their team about the argument (to be ready for all this, which clearly they are not), i think it shows they have a lot to learn (indeed the defence sec tweeted in support of Boris...then deleted it a few seconds later, their is no media strategy in place from Team Boris yet), and indeed another few self-inflicted gaffes like this could see Boris's ambition in tatters.

Dante, the Conservative Party membership won't care; I doubt if even anyone in the general public cares. This is just the usual Americanized media choreography that we have to tolerate during political contests. Aside from anything else, there isn't any sort of substantive allegation being made beyond "man argues with partner". Even when the press had genuinely damaging information against Corbyn, Trump and Farage it made virtually no difference. If anything it actually stiffened the resolve of their respective supporters.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Dante, the Conservative Party membership won't care; I doubt if even anyone in the general public cares. This is just the usual Americanized media choreography that we have to tolerate during political contests. Aside from anything else, there isn't any sort of substantive allegation being made beyond "man argues with partner". Even when the press had genuinely damaging information against Corbyn, Trump and Farage it made virtually no difference. If anything it actually stiffened the resolve of their respective supporters.

Possibly indeed mate, but i think there will be some fallout. Corbyn, Trump and Farage are not politically immune to the hatchet jobs or negative press, indeed its afflicted them fairly significantly in terms of limiting their broad appeal, they are both helped and hindered by being polarized figures in terms of media protection. But for instance, Farage running for Westminster is a massive uphill struggle because the negative press he's had has meant he's going to find it incredibly difficult to reach out from his base and appeal to broad demographics that he'll need to confront FPTP, the same goes for Corbyn 'peak Corbyn' is a thing and is an issue, as he should be able to reach across voting divides, but cannot due to the press coverage (I mean Corbyn's has actually been very damaging overall, as the Oxford uni study found iirc, he's had more negative press coverage than any other contemporary politician and its showed- people genuinely think he's a communist, his manifesto policies which are not radical are tarred as radical, even by some supporters, Corbyn's strength has been that he has an equally effective media team who have mitigated the damage by building the trump-esque tactic of 'media against me'- there is of course truth to both these guys claiming that , but as a media strategy, its really one of 'last resort' indeed i would argue its not a strategy at all as such, but the only option Corbyn, Farage and Trump have left. For while it means you can get your supporters to perceive negative press as merely biased desperate attacks and so ensure you are insulated from the impact - but it also has its flaws in it polarizes, instead of allowing a fight for the 'broad ground'). As i said, the main issue is that Johnson doesn't have this narrative. His whole press strategy has relied on sympathetic press for a bumbling image, a strategy that does not work when running for PM (or being PM), the fact he screwed up here by not telling his own team of this highlights he isn't yet thinking in terms of winning, they had no counter to this attack.

The British public (Beyond existing supporters) i would actually say cared a lot about Corbyn and claims he's communist/terrorist/spy/unbritish- there is a massive reason why Corbyn's policies are very popular across left and right, but that he himself is not. Its entirely how his personal image and life have been spun in the press.

They cared about Farage (Thus why he's never made it into Parliament- his brexit party is literally just brexit it has no inkling yet of being sustainable, and polls are showing that the Tories ditching May are starting to eek votes back- but again, it won't be significant enough currently to prevent the Conservatives losing a snap-GE).

Also this is a blue on blue contest so the context is slightly different and Boris has friendlies taking aim which adds a slightly different political context than Corbyn's 'us vs them' (Though the left-wing press are equally critical of Corbyn, so you can perhaps see some element of Boris here and what he might face, the negative press prevent any chance of broad appeal, making them as leaders essentially handicapped. Boris already has this somewhat from the no-deal stance, he can't afford to make it worse). While its somewhat true that the media has less impact than it had with Blair and the 24 news cycle, its not that people have got more critical of the coverage, as i'd say we who are interested in politics are . Instead they go online to smaller outlets and blogs, which are equally damaging and modern media strategies try and take these into account. Spin still works and personal spin works best (See Corbyn and Farage for instance, these are not examples of successfully dealing with negative press, but warnings for what happens when the press coverage gets too much- you are left with the only strategy to follow- calling media bias, which works for your supporters to retain them, but stunts you from ever appealing to the 'other side' again), so i would be hesitant to simply say people don't care anymore. People like us might not, they'd look at this story and go 'spin' because we know it, we're interested in it (god damn nerds that we are ). Most people do not do that though, this won't kill his bid (though it might if in the unlikely event it spirals), but it is damaging and is a foreboding case for things to come if Boris couldn't handle this (and again massively self-inflicted), it doesn't look good for actual political storms ahead in the hustlings.

EDIT: For instance, the potential for this story isn't that in itself it'll be Bori's undoing, but left unaddressed it will be, Johnson's dirty laundry was going to get re-aired due to his running for leader and being the favourite, however its provided a distinctly damaging avenue (if not counter-spun) for the press, left and right (as indeed the Mail online is starting to do now) to go through his backlog of ups, in a new light (i.e. now critical where before it was just 'Boris, being Boris') and through the troubling lens of these headlines and their implications. That is an issue. That his girlfriend is his chief doctor is another issue, but above all, this has poorly handled by Boris (So doubly self-inflicted). The back-log of course is the infidelity, foreign office screw ups, mayor of London screw ups, lying both past and present. Its a damaging back-catalogue that needs to always have a keen handle on it, as it could spiral quite easily for him. The other key thing to note is that the leadership election has two elements- Tory members, merely the 160,000 of them, but also this is the only chance the candidate has to actually 'win' the wider electorate. Once PM, they'll face the very real threat of their government being toppled, or being forced to hold a GE due to the parliamentary arithmetic. So he has two audiences to keep in mind and has to be appeal to both, especially with the Conservatives in such a dicey situation politically.

[Basil II the B.S]

No one - least of all Tory voters - cares about a contrived Guardian hit piece lol. It didn't work against Trump, it didn't work against Corbyn and it isn't going to work against Johnson.

Hmm. Maybe. Corbyn and Trump have the ''populist'' appeal, so whatever the mainstream press says against them hardly hits, simply because their core electorate doesn't trust the mainstream press to begin with. Bojo.... I don't know. If it was Farage, then it'd make no difference. Farage gets the same '' all'' type of votes as the other two: people want one thing, that thing, nothing else matters. Bojo has to appease a larger base, in theory.

[Cope]

Possibly indeed mate, but i think there will be some fallout. Corbyn, Trump and Farage are not politically immune to the hatchet jobs or negative press, indeed its afflicted them fairly significantly in terms of limiting their broad appeal, they are both helped and hindered by being polarized figures in terms of media protection. But for instance, Farage running for Westminster is a massive uphill struggle because the negative press he's had has meant he's going to find it incredibly difficult to reach out from his base and appeal to broad demographics that he'll need to confront FPTP, the same goes for Corbyn 'peak Corbyn' is a thing and is an issue, as he should be able to reach across voting divides, but cannot due to the press coverage (I mean Corbyn's has actually been very damaging overall, as the Oxford uni study found iirc, he's had more negative press coverage than any other contemporary politician and its showed- people genuinely think he's a communist, his manifesto policies which are not radical are tarred as radical, even by some supporters, Corbyn's strength has been that he has an equally effective media team who have mitigated the damage by building the trump-esque tactic of 'media against me'- there is of course truth to both these guys claiming that , but as a media strategy, its really one of 'last resort' indeed i would argue its not a strategy at all as such, but the only option Corbyn, Farage and Trump have left. For while it means you can get your supporters to perceive negative press as merely biased desperate attacks and so ensure you are insulated from the impact - but it also has its flaws in it polarizes, instead of allowing a fight for the 'broad ground'). As i said, the main issue is that Johnson doesn't have this narrative. His whole press strategy has relied on sympathetic press for a bumbling image, a strategy that does not work when running for PM (or being PM), the fact he screwed up here by not telling his own team of this highlights he isn't yet thinking in terms of winning, they had no counter to this attack.

The British public (Beyond existing supporters) i would actually say cared a lot about Corbyn and claims he's communist/terrorist/spy/unbritish- there is a massive reason why Corbyn's policies are very popular across left and right, but that he himself is not. Its entirely how his personal image and life have been spun in the press.

They cared about Farage (Thus why he's never made it into Parliament- his brexit party is literally just brexit it has no inkling yet of being sustainable, and polls are showing that the Tories ditching May are starting to eek votes back- but again, it won't be significant enough currently to prevent the Conservatives losing a snap-GE).

Also this is a blue on blue contest so the context is slightly different and Boris has friendlies taking aim which adds a slightly different political context than Corbyn's 'us vs them' (Though the left-wing press are equally critical of Corbyn, so you can perhaps see some element of Boris here and what he might face, the negative press prevent any chance of broad appeal, making them as leaders essentially handicapped. Boris already has this somewhat from the no-deal stance, he can't afford to make it worse). While its somewhat true that the media has less impact than it had with Blair and the 24 news cycle, its not that people have got more critical of the coverage, as i'd say we who are interested in politics are . Instead they go online to smaller outlets and blogs, which are equally damaging and modern media strategies try and take these into account. Spin still works and personal spin works best (See Corbyn and Farage for instance, these are not examples of successfully dealing with negative press, but warnings for what happens when the press coverage gets too much- you are left with the only strategy to follow- calling media bias, which works for your supporters to retain them, but stunts you from ever appealing to the 'other side' again), so i would be hesitant to simply say people don't care anymore. People like us might not, they'd look at this story and go 'spin' because we know it, we're interested in it (god damn nerds that we are ). Most people do not do that though, this won't kill his bid (though it might if in the unlikely event it spirals), but it is damaging and is a foreboding case for things to come if Boris couldn't handle this (and again massively self-inflicted), it doesn't look good for actual political storms ahead in the hustlings.

EDIT: For instance, the potential for this story isn't that in itself it'll be Bori's undoing, but left unaddressed it will be, Johnson's dirty laundry was going to get re-aired due to his running for leader and being the favourite, however its provided a distinctly damaging avenue (if not counter-spun) for the press, left and right (as indeed the Mail online is starting to do now) to go through his backlog of ups, in a new light (i.e. now critical where before it was just 'Boris, being Boris') and through the troubling lens of these headlines and their implications. That is an issue. That his girlfriend is his chief doctor is another issue, but above all, this has poorly handled by Boris (So doubly self-inflicted). The back-log of course is the infidelity, foreign office screw ups, mayor of London screw ups, lying both past and present. Its a damaging back-catalogue that needs to always have a keen handle on it, as it could spiral quite easily for him. The other key thing to note is that the leadership election has two elements- Tory members, merely the 160,000 of them, but also this is the only chance the candidate has to actually 'win' the wider electorate. Once PM, they'll face the very real threat of their government being toppled, or being forced to hold a GE due to the parliamentary arithmetic. So he has two audiences to keep in mind and has to be appeal to both, especially with the Conservatives in such a dicey situation politically.

Politicians are equally, if not more, damaged by a lack of melodrama than they they are by a few media frenzies. "Maybot" May should be evidence enough that in the social media age, the electorate doesn't warm toward politicians who are viewed as being distant and angular. The trick is to expose your humanity without making a genuine scandal. A politician might achieve this outcome by, for instance, having a public row with a partner or admitting that they snorted cocaine twenty years ago. If you read the Mail's coverage, its clear that they're treating this incident like celebrity gossip rather than an assassination attempt; they even went with the headline "Bojo faces Tory questions". The comments section is predictably overflowing with people insisting that a middle aged (sorry Carrie Symonds) couple having an argument is nothing out of the ordinary. Secondly, and perhaps even more importantly, guess who isn't on the front cover of every newspaper today or being talked about on obscure video game forums. Yeah, Jeremy Hunt.

[caratacus]

Nor in fact Jeremy Corbyn, who can hardly say anything about this incident, least it looks like opportunism. By all accounts his last meeting with Labour MPs wasn't an example of calmness either, but alas no recordings.

Labour MPs ‘shell shocked’ by angry meeting with Corbyn: ‘We’re still mopping up the blood on the carpet’
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8954126.html
Labour has been rocked by fresh infighting after a meeting with Jeremy Corbyn was described as so fractious that cleaners were “still mopping up the blood on the carpet”.
Labour MP Anna Turley said colleagues were “shell shocked” by the anger expressed at the weekly parliamentary Labour party meeting, as MPs tore into Mr Corbyn over the party’s handling of Brexit and internal complaints.

As Ep1c_fail says, this might actually work in his favour amongst a British electorate, more touchy feely these days than stiff upper lip, post Diana.