Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Basil II the B.S]

-Low turnout
-high leave area
-high minority area

are the factors you look for.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

-Low turnout
-high leave area
-high minority area

are the factors you look for.

Indeed, this is why Farage needs more than the single-issue platform to get into Westminster. Peterborough is a marginal, flipping between Labour and Tories with very small majorities for each, it also indeed overwhelming voted to leave, Moreover Labour's campaign in traditional terms was terrible- anti-semitism accusations, being fueled by the candidate herself and filling the boots of a previous MP who is now a criminal. Brexit just isn't going to be the force that drives them over the line. They need that domestic platform, which is where the pitfalls begin to open up.

What's interesting is this-

“There are now seats like this over the country where Conservative voters are going to start to realise, if you vote Conservative, you are going to finish up with a Corbyn government.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...lection-result

That is Farage identifying what went wrong. The strategy though is one that will not work, as the Conservatives have also identified that previously and are an extolling voters to vote Tory or get Corbyn (nearly every Tory candidate has mentioned that).So the right-wing vote is going to remain split if both sides adopt a 'fear Corbyn, vote us' strategy, which will lead to Labour indeed getting into number 10 ironically. Its a shaky platform to run on in a GE and as we saw in 2017 will not get the results desired alone.

[Basil II the B.S]

Farage had a couple of interviews yesterday, one notably with an Italian newspaper. He's not aiming for Westminster (yet?) or he's hiding plans. Either way, he's waiting for the Tories to settle their thing (likely Bojo). Also noteworthy, the Economist/FT support Bojo because he's a social liberal, meaning he's likely to disappoint the base which is staunchly social conservative.

So? There's, in theory, plenty of room for Farage to completely rout the Conservative party, however right now he's not seizing on it and I'm not sure whether waiting is the right option. He might as well end up like Corbyn who had a chance in 2017 but didn't make it and now he's dead in the water.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Farage had a couple of interviews yesterday, one notably with an Italian newspaper. He's not aiming for Westminster (yet?) or he's hiding plans. Either way, he's waiting for the Tories to settle their thing (likely Bojo). Also noteworthy, the Economist/FT support Bojo because he's a social liberal, meaning he's likely to disappoint the base which is staunchly social conservative.

So? There's, in theory, plenty of room for Farage to completely rout the Conservative party, however right now he's not seizing on it and I'm not sure whether waiting is the right option. He might as well end up like Corbyn who had a chance in 2017 but didn't make it and now he's dead in the water.

Interesting, as the impression he's given in interviews today and in the past few days, he's clearly going for Westminster ('Seismic change in UK politics, First Brexit party MP soon etc)- though this could be a 'different audiences, different contexts' thing- In European political terms, spin it as being about brexit, while domestically spin a 'the aim is Westminster' as most Brits, even Remainer's don't really follow Euro politics (Hence why Brexit has almost entirely been an internal debate in the UK in terms of our position and divides, and rarely a glance to the EU side until they do something that might effect this internal debate ). If he wants to at all impact brexit policy though, he does need to get into Westminster in significant numbers, waiting for the Tories to resolve their leadership spat, it'll be too late, as currently even Raab or Boris may not be in office long given internal divides.

Indeed there is scope for a domestic policy platform- however, socially liberal vs socially conservative- are still being drawn entirely from the Conservative vote share base (as i can't see Lib-dems voters going for Boris), and as we've seen in Peterborough, that will still leave it split, and Labour in prime position to take seats that would otherwise go to 'the right'. Essentially on this course unless Labour screw-up (possible, Party conference coming up, and Labour never like to keep a good thing going, no doubt some faction will upset another for a very public media spat- but the screw-up needs to be huge for it to have any effect really at this point), or the Conservatives remember how to fight elections (not likely currently either), we'll get the Brexit party delivering a Labour government.

However, the second place will be the key battleground, and here indeed it'll be a knife-edge fight between the Brexit party and the Conservatives. The difference between them, even with the Conservatives in 3rd place is not massive and as FPTP plays out, the Tories have a 'home-ground advantage', despite being so low in vote share polling. So it really could go either way, and will i suspect be a very bloody battle, with the results going either way very quickly- as you said, Farage may rout the Tories entirely, or the Conservatives may hit back hard and keep the brexit party from getting many seats at all.

I think Corbyn was dead in the water, i don't think that is the case now, Peterborough Labour ran on an anti-austerity platform, the issues Corbyn relies on are still massive in the publics perception and indeed the reality for many. His brexit muddle has certainly seen off Labour remainers potentially from trying much at the party conference. Whatever happens (Even the Brexit party gaining no seats at the next GE), it'll likely be Labour who form the next Government (Especially with the Tory vote, even if they see off the Brexit party, are still losing the remain voters they need to beat Labour to the lib-dems by seeing off the brexit party) as the right vote will still be split (Unless the GE is in 2022, in which case i suspect indeed Corbyn may not be leader). Labour on the other hand have enough scope needed to grow (as they did increase the number of votes they got, by a 100 odd sure , but that in a marginal is a really significant) on their essentially domestic platform, that they unexpectedly squeeze the brexit-orientated parties out.

[mongrel]

The remainers like Mongrel see this as a victory, but is it? The leave vote was split between Brexit and Tories with 400 votes still on UKIP. Labour LOST it's voteshare compared to the previous election by 17%.

If Tories get brexit wrong as they are almost certain to do, they could get wiped out in the next election by brexit party. Next government could conceivably be a labour, lib dem, tory, brexit party hung mess.

Also Labour's brexit policy is a bloody mess, promising everything to everyone, what happens when they are forced to pick a side and a have policy other than "we will do anything for everyone, please vote for us"?

Strictly speaking, I'm not a remainer, I just can't see how Brexit can work at this point in time (see thread title) without destroying the UK's economy.We simply aren't ready.

It is a victory because if it wasn't for Farage's intervention, Labour would have certainly lost the seat.But, if I were Corbyn,in future I'd go for second referendum , vote Remain, end austerity ticket. The Leave voters will cancel other out.

[Basil II the B.S]

Interesting, as the impression he's given in interviews today and in the past few days, he's clearly going for Westminster ('Seismic change in UK politics, First Brexit party MP soon etc)- though this could be a 'different audiences, different contexts' thing- In European political terms, spin it as being about brexit, while domestically spin a 'the aim is Westminster' as most Brits, even Remainer's don't really follow Euro politics (Hence why Brexit has almost entirely been an internal debate in the UK in terms of our position and divides, and rarely a glance to the EU side until they do something that might effect this internal debate ). If he wants to at all impact brexit policy though, he does need to get into Westminster in significant numbers, waiting for the Tories to resolve their leadership spat, it'll be too late, as currently even Raab or Boris may not be in office long given internal divides.

Indeed there is scope for a domestic policy platform- however, socially liberal vs socially conservative- are still being drawn entirely from the Conservative vote share base (as i can't see Lib-dems voters going for Boris), and as we've seen in Peterborough, that will still leave it split, and Labour in prime position to take seats that would otherwise go to 'the right'. Essentially on this course unless Labour screw-up (possible, Party conference coming up, and Labour never like to keep a good thing going, no doubt some faction will upset another for a very public media spat- but the screw-up needs to be huge for it to have any effect really at this point), or the Conservatives remember how to fight elections (not likely currently either), we'll get the Brexit party delivering a Labour government.

However, the second place will be the key battleground, and here indeed it'll be a knife-edge fight between the Brexit party and the Conservatives. The difference between them, even with the Conservatives in 3rd place is not massive and as FPTP plays out, the Tories have a 'home-ground advantage', despite being so low in vote share polling. So it really could go either way, and will i suspect be a very bloody battle, with the results going either way very quickly- as you said, Farage may rout the Tories entirely, or the Conservatives may hit back hard and keep the brexit party from getting many seats at all.

I think Corbyn was dead in the water, i don't think that is the case now, Peterborough Labour ran on an anti-austerity platform, the issues Corbyn relies on are still massive in the publics perception and indeed the reality for many. His brexit muddle has certainly seen off Labour remainers potentially from trying much at the party conference. Whatever happens (Even the Brexit party gaining no seats at the next GE), it'll likely be Labour who form the next Government (Especially with the Tory vote, even if they see off the Brexit party, are still losing the remain voters they need to beat Labour to the lib-dems by seeing off the brexit party) as the right vote will still be split (Unless the GE is in 2022, in which case i suspect indeed Corbyn may not be leader). Labour on the other hand have enough scope needed to grow (as they did increase the number of votes they got, by a 100 odd sure , but that in a marginal is a really significant) on their essentially domestic platform, that they unexpectedly squeeze the brexit-orientated parties out.

It might be I got the wrong impression then. Not sure. If I were him, I'd go all the way against the Conservative party. Hell, if I were a Lib Dem, I'd do the same with Labour.

You are right that Lib Dem voters aren't going for Boris. It is true that Conservatives have lost some votes to Lib Dems, however winning them back will prove to be a lot harder than winning back social conservatives from Farage. The Peterborough is somewhat of limited impact because of the low turnout. Pundits need something to talk about and will overread it but it's not a turning point on national level.

Corbyn has the usual problem: 2/3 of his voters want to Remain and are tempted by other parties. 1/3 are social conservative working class that are tempted by Farage. You can't rely on economic themes only to win both. He can rely on the fact that Tories suck, but those are not the only option in the ballot anymore.

[TheLeft]

Amazing that people didn't vote in a single issue party with no manifesto whose upper echelons believe in 'curing gay people' and privatising the NHS.

[caratacus]

Right and Left voting patterns have no relationship to the Brexit vote. Labour didn't get in here on an anti Brexit ticket, and yes the Conservatives certainly suffered by drawing away voters to the Brexit party. Which begs the question what will be Labour's strategy after Peterborough be. It was interesting and annoying that a Labour sokesman on the news was stating that it made the case for anther referendum, which it did not.

Anyway, I think there are too many people trying to draw far too much into what was a small sample of the total electoral vote and only a voter turn out of 48% in this particular constituency. The Labour candidate's win was ony 668 votes! A party that didn't exist a mere 2 months ago comes a close second in front of the Conservatives. That isn't comfortable for the major parties by any means.

And where was this big swing to the LibDems and Greens? This aside though, I cannot understand why Labour won here and it would be useful to see who voted for them and why. Why was she able to stand given the controversy over the previous incumbent?

Labour Party backlash after Peterborough by-election winner Lisa Forbes liked 'anti-Semitic' posts online
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a4161821.html
Labour MP Lisa Forbes, who won the Peterborough by-election on Thursday, is facing a backlash from within the Labour Party after it emerged she had liked Facebook posts that were accused of being anti-Semitic..

I don't buy it was a anti-austerity ticket. Peterborough is a growth town, it probaby is the least affected of anywhere. What it does demonstrate I think, is that UK politics is become increasing unpredictable.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

It might be I got the wrong impression then. Not sure. If I were him, I'd go all the way against the Conservative party. Hell, if I were a Lib Dem, I'd do the same with Labour.

You are right that Lib Dem voters aren't going for Boris. It is true that Conservatives have lost some votes to Lib Dems, however winning them back will prove to be a lot harder than winning back social conservatives from Farage. The Peterborough is somewhat of limited impact because of the low turnout. Pundits need something to talk about and will overread it but it's not a turning point on national level.

Corbyn has the usual problem: 2/3 of his voters want to Remain and are tempted by other parties. 1/3 are social conservative working class that are tempted by Farage. You can't rely on economic themes only to win both. He can rely on the fact that Tories suck, but those are not the only option in the ballot anymore.

I think honestly Farage is spinning different impressions for different situations. So i don't think your wrong, just what he wants to imply at that time. He's gone from heralding this as a great victory, to saying essentially that we'll get Corbyn in number 10 if Tory voters do not come over to us.

That's a fair point on social Conservatives being easier for the Tories to win back, the issue however is that without those wayward Lib-Dem Tory voters, the Conservatives will be unable to get into office again. I suspect that perhaps this is what the Conservative leadership are currently concentrating on though- not necessarily staying in power, but staying in its role as one of the big two- be that in Opposition or Government. Indeed the low turn out is a big caveat here- weirdly the brexit party has said it was an amazing turn-out... which was false. Partly indeed this is because its a by-election, but i'd add the further caveat that in a primarily leave voting constituency, and the brexit party was unable to bring out those leavers to vote for them. I think this is the fact we discussed before that the 'leave' potential for voters might be over-inflated for Westminster voting purposes, as 3 million odd people who voted in the brexit referendum had never been 'politically engaged' before- it was the great achievement of the Leave campaign, but it also means those people staying politically engaged (especially after the way the Conservatives handled brexit) is questionable, especially after 2017. However, even if not, the lower turn-out is an issue for Farage (It implies that their is a boycott/voter fatigue going on that will damage FPTP aspirants and their Conservative rivals more than Labour, whose ground-game is probably the strongest of all the political parties currently).

I'd agree its not a turning-point, but i think it has highlighted the issue with these vote share polls (well not the issue, just how they can't really be properly interpreted at GE level for Westminster due to FPTP).

True enough, however i think the fact the Labour 'botch' on brexit has held in favour of a domestic emphasis, which a GE would only exacerbate, renders the issue of Labour's brexit stance (which was weak in 2017 too) not a primary issue for them, i would argue you could rely on economic issues only to win 'enough' needed to get over that line for Labour- a big debate going on currently in the Conservatives between essentially, May, all leadership contenders vs Hammond is that there needs to be a politically motivated spending spree to win back some political capital (and the amounts talked about are comparatively for this Conservative government significant, its not any kind of real economic reform or actual plan, it just throwing money at things (Money from Hammonds Brexit 'war chest')- but its the perception that is key). I think thus in the event of a snap GE, which i think everyone see's as a possibility, it will be investment and the economy that has been identified as being where it will be won and lost. The Brexit party and Conservatives will fight each other on brexit policy of course, probably in a fairly bloody way, but they at this point are competing for opposition pending a dramatic shift, simply because Labour is not as exposed as the Conservatives are to Brexit party voters, and as 2017, voters currently are polling low in regard to the clarity of Labours brexit position, but any attacks can be spun off towards the tangible that most voters still seem to care about- school budgets, council funding, NHS etc.

He can indeed rely on the Tories suck I think the issue is that for Farage to eat into the Labour vote share that he needs to, his domestic platform will have to match Corbyn's somewhat, but if he does that, he will likely alienate the Conservative voters he needs. All three parties essentially due to varying extents are constrained in their room for growth by Brexit and the economy, the issue is that the Tories and Brexit party are standing in broadly the same right-wing space. Unless one annihilates the other, Labour will come out on top.

The final caveat (as apparently i like undermining my own points), is that the Lib-dems- indeed could gun for Labour, the question being as always, and much like the brexit party- can they translate their growth into FPTP seats, they have a much harder job at this than the Brexit Party does, because of A) Labour's super-majorities and B) Labour, unlike the Tories on the brexit party already have a lot of political ammunition against the lib-dems, and indeed have started firing at them. The lib-dem coalition reneged on promises to students (they technically compromised, but you know- political spin and all that ) and implemented austerity, indeed most of their current MP's voted in favour of those things. So unlike the brexit party with their clean slate causing problems for the Tories, the Lib-dems fit easily within Labours overall electoral anti-austerity emphasis, its something they'll have to somehow escape...the only escape beyond 'owning' austerity or using the current rather feeble argument of 'it went too far' (i.e. admittance of guilt) neither of which are vote winners in attacking Labour vote share, though they do attract the Tory remainers, is to concentrate on brexit, so they effectively make themselves a one-issue party, like the Brexit party and have all the attendant problems there, only worse, because Labour seats have really inefficient use of vote share (which as that article i think said rather well- is both bad and good).

Right and Left voting patterns have no relationship to the Brexit vote. Labour didn't get in here on an anti Brexit ticket, and yes the Conservatives certainly suffered by drawing away voters to the Brexit party. Which begs the question what will be Labour's strategy after Peterborough be. It was interesting and annoying that a Labour sokesman on the news was stating that it made the case for anther referendum, which it did not.

Anyway, I think there are too many people trying to draw far too much into what was a small sample of the total electoral vote and only a voter turn out of 48% in this particular constituency. The Labour candidate's win was ony 668 votes! A party that didn't exist a mere 2 months ago comes a close second in front of the Conservatives. That isn't comfortable for the major parties by any means.

And where was this big swing to the LibDems and Greens? This aside though, I cannot understand why Labour won here and it would be useful to see who voted for the and why. I don't buy it was a anti-austerity ticket. Peterborough is a growth town, it probaby is the least affected of anywhere. What it does demonstrate I think, is that UK politics is become increasing unpredictable.

Some good points. I think though we need to bear in mind Peterborough is a marginal seat- Labour's victory of 668 is actually up on their previous number of votes by 100 odd vs the Tories, so its a pretty good showing for such a context, this is also why it is relevant to the broader political context, though of course cannot be taken as wholly representative. But as sign-post a marginal seat that goes to Labour, a seat that was overwhelmingly pro-brexit, highlights the need for a rethink politically from all sides. The emphasis on the brexit is not a 'vote winner' in marginals, then in 'safe seats' its certainly going to have an issue for parties wanting to 'win' (arguably indeed we're according to wider polling with its FPTP caveats and this, the Tories and Brexit party are going to be engaged in a bloody battle for who would get to be the Opposition, and by how much- i'd recommend this if anyone hasn't read it yet for why- https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/06/02...longer-useful/.

Labour strategy i suspect will (or should) double down on the anti-austerity message, While Peterbourgh isn't as effected by austerity- the 'austerity context' has affected them:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol...tion-and-crime

Education funding, NHS, Jobs- and bearing in mind its perception that is key (and indeed there are actual issues of course), domestic trumped brexit, as 2017 showed. It alone seems not able to deliver the knock out blow needed in a marginal- which is a key piece of information.

You are spot on here about the weird comments of the Labour spokesperson, if anything this result will solidify Corbyn's strategy of 'organized chaos' on Brexit, not make a case for a second referendum at all.

The Lib-dems and Greens didn't feature because it was i suspect an overwhelmingly leave voting constituency. Which is why Labour did so well, as their strategy allowed leave voters to support them on domestic issues. What is clear is perhaps then that 'leave' does not mean the Boris/Farage leave for a proportion of leave voters (Something we already knew with the internal factions of leave and remain), or that domestic simply is more important.

Voter turn-out, indeed was low. Partly i'm sure because it was a by-election and not a GE. However the low turnout is an issue for the Brexit party. It means the dynamic factor they are relying on simply isn't enough to get voters to turn out for them. FPTP relies on small voting turn-outs, new parties which already have a massive uphill struggle need to attract entirely new voters if they want to win a slightly easier ride (Though lets be honest, toppling the Tories for second is a good achievement here, however the brexit party isn't a threat to Labour currently, as they are not directly treading on each others toes, like the Tory-Brexit rivalry who are fighting over the same core demographics. With that being split it is easier for Labour to win, as they only need to grab a small percentage of the 'leave' voters, who perhaps care about austerity more, or don't mind Labours fuzzy brexit position, to beat the Tories and Brexit party, as those two fight over a fixed amount of people).

Massively agree though on the volatility of British politics currently- indeed the article on FPTP highlights why for the Tories and Brexit party, it literally, even with polling higher for the brexit party come down to the Tories losing nearly all seats, or the Brexit party gaining barely any and the Tories retaining their position as one of the big two (though in Opposition), its a knife-edge. Labours main threat are from the Lib-dems and Greens, so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out in a remain voting constituency, if that would factor at all, and how effective Labours austerity-based attacks on the lib-dems would be, as well as their support for a 'greener economy' might sway Green voters to do the tactical thing at a GE or not.

EDIT: To further add to the low-tunout, its an issue for the BP as i've just heard on the radio Farage's reasoning for the BP- Brexit being 'the central issue' that voters care about. The issue being again that the referendum drew out on both sides people who had never voted before, its incredibly hard to keep such a demographic (especially after three years of Government screw-ups on that very vote) politically engaged and not either going back to not-caring, or indeed boycotting/having voter fatigue. That Farage needs to expand beyond the one issue for the BP is i think a given. The issue being foraying out into the domestic realm, could also see the Brexit party crumble and lose its gain depending on the policy platform picked. I don't envy Farage's position here, its incredibly difficult to craft a popular domestic platform that can bridge voting divides, the Tories failed at it during 2017, and Labour have struggled with that most of their political life.

Also just on the left-right not being related to the brexit vote- Its true, brexit has left and right-wing voters for it. However, they way they will vote in a GE will be also on left-right divides. You have traditional labour voters and socialists advocating brexit to get rid of the EU's neoliberal structures and be able to effectively re-nationalize various public services. These guys will not vote for the Conservatives at a GE, because a GE is for the government for the next 5 years, domestic thus impacts heavily, even within a brexit-context (and again domestic can and does i would argue trump brexit for most voters regardless). Likewise of course Brexit voters who are traditionally conservatives have a very different vision of Britain's brexit (and post-brexit life), and different priorities.

This is where Farage's brexit party will have issues, because standing at a GE, they are the government for the next give years potentially. They need to have an overall plan, especially as simply to 'secure' brexit as Farage wants you'll probably need to stick around in politics and in government for the next decade or so to make sure it stays on track (essentially you need to create the sustainable majority that has been lacking). So unless Farage is going to try and put forward a platform of vote for us at a GE, we'll make sure brexit is done, and then straight away we'll have another GE so someone else can take over who has a domestic plan, he'll have to come up with something that will appeal to left-wing and right-wing brexit voters (and to win a majority, he might even need remainers). This is where it gets very difficult. Brexit-related domestic policy (i.e. the future vision of the UK internationally and in terms of social, economic and political reform) are going to be as equally as divisive as 'brexit' itself was. Farage also needs to come up with domestic policy not related to brexit too if he wants to be sure to beat the Conservatives in a GE, let along get into government, i.e. NHS, school-funding etc. Here its also going to be very hard to 'unify' brexit voters behind him, as i don't think many people are seeing a GE as a further 'one shot' referendum, their looking at the Conservatives failures economically and wanting an improvement- that improvement is going to be equally divisive for left and right brexit voters.

So while brexit indeed is more than left-right divides, though divides are going to be key for a GE in 'how' brexit is subsequently delivered (Which will be during that Parliament). The BP here have a major battle on their hands to craft something, as so far Labour is occupying still significant portions of the needed 'left-wing' brexit vote (Its no accident that the BP is mainly effecting Conservative core vote share), as well as having a large swathe or remainers. This makes it both stronger against the Brexit party (able to bridge that divide by being confusing on brexit policy), but also its vulnerable if the Lib-dems and Greens can mount a real attack on its vote share from a 'remain' angle. Currently though we're seeing the BP (partly due to Farage who is a traditional conservatives with arguably a libertarian streak) only able to make real in-roads amongst Conservatives, hence why they are currently in danger of getting embroiled in a bloody battle for second place (and indeed why it'll be a 'weaker' second place if they do, as the Tories will still be around to endanger their vote share, and former Tory remainers are going towards the lib-dems, this political turmoil may potentially see Labour take the traditional place of the Conservative party, as the 'default' party of Government in British politics simply by their being the 'last broad church' standing, able to threaten various pies of vote for the next decade or so, at least while Brexit remains 'central' (though it certainly will remain relevant for a long-time after we've left the EU).

[95thrifleman]

Amazing that people didn't vote in a single issue party with no manifesto whose upper echelons believe in 'curing gay people' and privatising the NHS.

You clearly missed the part where 9801 people voted for Brexit party. The Labour only won by just under 700 seats.

[mongrel]

You clearly missed the part where 9801 people voted for Brexit party. The Labour only won by just under 700 seats.

That's why it is amazing. I would suggest it could have been more but for Trump's slip about acquiring the NHS.

[95thrifleman]

That's why it is amazing. I would suggest it could have been more but for Trump's slip about acquiring the NHS.

Maybe, maybe not. The problem is this will force the Tories to double down on hrd brexit.

[mongrel]

Maybe, maybe not. The problem is this will force the Tories to double down on hrd brexit.

True, it will also lead to their destruction, one cannot outflank Farage. The Liberals are the true Conservatives now.

[Basil II the B.S]

Alright Dante, you did your worst right there. 2 walls of text and then you added a third because it why not.

So, I looked at the Conservative candidates and I'd say by the end of it, the only one who can legitimately prevent the implosion of the party is Dominic Raab.
This is why:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rgotten-stand/

Goodwin's analysis is generally top notch. Now, without going too much into the details, you have 3 electorates that vote Tories. The social-conservative working class: up to half of the vote. The Euroskeptic Libertarian upper class, small but influential, and the social-progressive economic liberal educated middle class. The last one is sort of switching to Lib Dems. The first one is flocking en mass towards Farage. Now, here's the huge problem: lack of working class representatives within the party. That means, and it's exactly the case, that most Tory MPs are from the 2nd or 3d group, none of which has a clue about what the electorate wants. Indeed you have Bojo, who doesn't even have a clear stance, he's an opportunist, Gove (3rd group), Hunt (also 3rd group), Stewart (also 3rd group), Javid (unclear, I'd say 3rd group light) and Raab who's socially conservative and economic liberal. That makes him the only cross-electorate bridge that can keep the party afloat.

As it is right now, however, he's not going to win. He'll likely end up 3rd or lower. I stick to my prediction. Bojo will win, he'll try to renegotiate and here I'm reading crazy stuff like postponing to 2021. Barnier also said he has zero intention to renegotiate the deal, the EU will not want Farage's BP in the European Parliament after October, so Bojo will try and fail. At that point it's up to Farage. If he wants, there's a clear path towards Prime Ministership. He has a key advantage over Lib Dems, who can overthrow Labour as the other party and that's the fact that Lib Dems have to contend with the Greens (and Labour). Farage has only one obstable in comparison.

[Elmetiacos]

"Why are working-class voters flocking to Farage? Because the Tories have forgotten what they stand for" asks the article, but the truth is that there were never very many working class Conservative voters in the first place: you just have to look at a map of the MPs various seats have returned and match it against average income. Raab may be less divisive within the party, but being socially conservative and economically liberal is currently the worst possible combination for appealing to the wider electorate.

[Basil II the B.S]

The socially conservative working class has actually been a core of the Conservative vote, curiously since Margaret Thatcher. Then New Labour came along and that accentuated the divorce of the working class from them. Before the 80s they were all Labour voters. For the rest, in theory the best combination to win elections would be socially conservative, economically interventionist, which would likely win landslides with FPTP, due to the fact that the opposite side would be a fragmented vote of socially progressive and economically liberal, split between Labour, Green and Lib Dem.
The current leadership of the Conservative party would fight for those group of voters, where conpetition is stiff, meaning that there's untapped potential over the other half of the country. Noteworthy, they'd win every single constituency outside London and a good number of London ones as well.

However a socially conservative/economic interventionist platform is too far from what Conservatives are right now. They don't even have anyone with that platform in mind.

[mongrel]

Whoever the Tories pick is not going to change the parliamentary arithmetic. Nor will it wipe out well over a decade of economic neglect and incompitence.

[caratacus]

You clearly missed the part where 9801 people voted for Brexit party. The Labour only won by just under 700 seats.

Controversy continues to spin around the Peterborough by-election. In addition to furore surrounding the Tweets of the winning candidate,

Jeremy Corbyn Defends New Labour MP After Calls For Suspension Over Facebook Anti-Semitism
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/jeremy-co...anti-semitism/

There are now claims that the actual voting may not have been entirely proper. A petition is currently doing the rounds for an examination of the vote. Doubts about legitimacy largely stem from previous voting irregularities in Peterborough. In fact Peterborough had been officially highlighted by the government and electoral commission as one of the top ten constituencies in the country where serious electoral fraud is known to occur.

In the recent election, the top candidates polled around 31,000 votes and the total number was about 32,563. It is reported that of these there were a total of over 6,000 postal votes. That is around 20% of the votes! If correct that is a truly remarkable portion of the total vote.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[TheLeft]

Controversy continues to spin around the Peterborough by-election. In addition to furore surrounding the Tweets of the winning candidate,

As a Brexit Party supporter, I'm wondering how you square this circle...

Farage's racist Breaking Point poster = fine, nothing to see here.
Anti-Semitic tweet = Outrage

Personally, I think both are abhorrent. But I'm wondering how you see it. Is racism not as bad as antisemitism? Is there a sliding scale of intolerance where some is acceptable and others not? I'm curious...

There are now claims that the actual voting may not have been entirely proper. A petition is currently doing the rounds for an examination of the vote. Doubts about legitimacy largely stem from previous voting irregularities in Peterborough. In fact Peterborough had been officially highlighted by the government and electoral commission as one of the top ten constituencies in the country where serious electoral fraud is known to occur.

In the recent election, the top candidates polled around 31,000 votes and the total number was about 32,563. It is reported that of these there were a total of over 6,000 postal votes. That is around 20% of the votes! If correct that is a truly remarkable portion of the total vote.

Is Farage challenging 'The Will of People' by seeking to overthrow a democratic vote? Oh the irony...

[caratacus]

As a Brexit Party supporter, I'm wondering how you square this circle...

Farage's racist Breaking Point poster = fine, nothing to see here.
Anti-Semitic tweet = Outrage

Personally, I think both are abhorrent. But I'm wondering how you see it. Is racism not as bad as antisemitism? Is there a sliding scale of intolerance where some is acceptable and others not? I'm curious...

You seem insistent on personalising any debate. Where in my post did I say I was a Brexit Party supporter or make any comment about this stupid woman's Tweets? Please quit with the Snowfake posturing!

Is Farage challenging 'The Will of People' by seeking to overthrow a democratic vote? Oh the irony...

There has been a history of vote rigging in this town, I would think anyone who cares about democracy would have a concern about any doubts over a result, not just someone who supports a particular party, but I guess you aren't.