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"For what it’s worth: it’s never too late to be whoever you want to be. I hope you live a life you’re proud of, and if you find that you’re not, I hope you have the strength to start all over again."
Westminster voting intention: BREX: 26% (+1) LAB: 22% (-4) CON: 17% (-5) LDEM: 16% (+4) GRN: 11% (+7) CHUK: 1% (-1) UKIP: 1% (-1) via @OpiniumResearch, 28 - 30 May Chgs. w/ 20 May First ever poll to put Brex ahead.
Unique moment in British history and the medium term result of the referendum has been the wipe out of the two dominant parties in favour of insurgents. Voters have been realigning along with Leave and Remain, with Brexit Party and LibDem earning their spots by promising to deliver exactly that. The moderates are dead.
Indeed, we're approaching historic territory if a snap election is called, there's also a similar discussion in the Euro-Elections thread (where we got onto some GE polls...because i'm terrible at topics sometimes ). However, the big caveats remain- the Brexit party and to a similar (those lesser arguably) extent the lib-dems will not retain these numbers when the domestic element becomes important (or where manifestos are concerned for the brexit party), so unless a snap election is called in the next few weeks (prior to Tories selecting a leader) i'm not as excited as i should be alas.
Second is Tory leadership- will influence. Likely to be a brexiteer, who will be under massive pressure to call a GE (and indeed may have one from his own party) this will also eat some vote share too on top of the manifesto- imagine Boris for instance. Also though, the Conservatives with all these current polls (Most say Labour Victory or Labour-led coalition, or as you've put here most likely be a brexit victory with them having to form a coalition- using the electoral calculus on all polls currently, its not very accurate in terms of 'reality', but does provide for interesting reading and an idea) will resist a GE for as long as possible.
However polling is volatile at the moment- i'm tracking using the electoral calculus (has its problems but is an interesting general overview of if a GE was literally happening in the next hour)- Currently on most polls, the Lib-dems would win Liddingtons Conservative 'safe seat' of Aylesbury (historic), but with Basil's polling it now goes to the 'Brexit party... so you can rather see how things are in upheaval . On the ground here, its likely the lib-dems are more accurate given Aylesbury is a commuter town, Alyesbury itself is predominantly labour-leaning, but the 'village' wards outlying it sway to the Conservatives and lib-dems at locals. But again we're in some interesting times politically.
In the other thread, the earlier poll (https://www.businessinsider.com/youg...MsBGzP80POiRzA) had the Lib-dems indeed coming out on top on 26% and brexit party on 22%, however this according to Curtice and several other profs, meant actually that Labour (who was on 19%) won the most seats overall regardless it actually coming 'fourth' in that poll, getting 202 seats, with lib dems getting 119 seats and Conservatives 110 and the brexit party getting 141 iirc.
So again usual caveats . I'm not discounting it, but the next 'event' that needs to happen before i start getting remotely excited is the brexit party needs to release its domestic policy platforms (which Farage said are coming over the next few weeks). Once this drops, the polling may or may not change (i suspect it may slightly), but the other horizon event is the Conservative leadership. With that in place i think we'll find the polls will settle down in their volatility, and instead of swinging between Labour, Lib-dem and Brexit party we might start to see consistency, which will then lay the groundwork for a GE. I don't say 'win' a GE as look at 2017- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39856354 (2017 and a Labour that was roughly a massive 17% behind the Conservatives in most polls to then once campaigning started, managed to climb hugely to almost being on par with the Tories, which is whatever we might think of Corbyn, a startling achievement, especially as it is Labour climbing, the Tories vote share does not significantly collapse compared to the rise).
But aye interesting stuff may be afoot, Lib-dem or Brexit party getting major share- if it will translate to seats in a clear way, and even then as in the earlier 'Lib-dem' 'winning' poll, that does not necessarily translate to their being the government 'winning' the election, but we'll see.
What i will say, is if somehow miraculously the Tories manage to keep their own party from toppling themselves (very difficult) and stave off the need for a GE (also very difficult) until 2022...i'll be downright despondent and the 'could have beens' as by then we'll probably be back to the binary two predominantly with the lack of 'current brexit' fueling the lib-dems and brexit party (especially if 'a' brexit is carried out).
To Basils point (As i've been meandering about polls, so the good stuff ) To get on to your analysis there though Basil- agreed mate, the big thing coming across is that compromise and moderation regarding brexit is dead as an electoral strategy. The EU elections rather saw alluded to it, and its a trend that has continued into GE polling. Labour and the Conservatives are going to need to take a stand...one that does not somehow internally rip their parties apart. the Lib-dems and Greens are benefiting from a decidedly anti-brexit stance, while of course the Brexit party is in favour of a 'clear brexit'. What do we think though on the chances of Labour and the Tories swinging to a hard-line position to to reclaim their vote share?
I suspect, that as we're kinda seeing- a brexiteer is likely to win the Tory leadership, and Corbyn is being forced down the 'second referendum' pathway. However, for both i see trouble- the Conservatives as it may spell the end of their government as Tory softies/remainers and Hammond align with Labour to bring down the Conservative government (as they've stated indeed), for Labour though, Corbyn is not going to let them go full remain without a fight. The last few days have had contradictory headlines of 'labour support second referendum' from some front bench statements, while Corbyn then has clarified later only in specific circumstances. So there is a battle brewing here too, one that could be bloody.
The worrying Brexit-shaped Curve-ball:
One thing i do know now is, that not matter what happens brexit-wise, due to the 'center' on brexit being essentially dead electorally in any significant way, we are in that cycle i predicted a year or so ago. Brexit will be a presence disrupting British politics and pissing off voters on both sides for the next decade or so. There is almost no chance now of securing electoral consensus, and worse is that both sides are fairly evenly split (on the issue of brexit) still, almost to the point that some were talking about coming out of the EU elections- if that is extrapolated somewhat, the 'battlelines' haven't really moved in a significant way- a second referendum, might come out a few points for Remain, but the issue is still the same in terms of it not being a sustainable majority, as brexit currently also lacks a sustainable majority for the policy to be successful. This is the part that is keeping me up at night (only partly joking), as the rammifications are going to large as any party (especially the big two) looking to shore up vote share post-brexit can go an call upon the what i'm going to term 'brexit rallying card' (or rejoin EU/ forge a different new relationship card depending on 'when') to quickly gain support from a significant section of the electorate, who they might not be able to reach typically.
Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; June 01, 2019 at 06:00 PM.
The real issue is now June 6th and June 7th.
This will be a defining moment in British Political History. And I agree with Dante, right now we can be optimistic that change MAY come. However the Tories (worst party in the history of British Political History) are such a stubborn bunch and so corrupt that even if you got rid of them, they won't go away.
June 6th is the Peterborough by-election. IF Brexit party WINS - this will be a massive shock.
June 7th. Trump is visiting and the UK government will do everything to wreck this relationship in order to keep Westminister's political establishment.
Why these two dates?
June 6th - Nigel Farage will get an excellent boost. Trump is very well aware of this - even though he'll endorse Boris, he's also hopeful that Nigel can get some ground in this Brexit saga mess.
June 7th - JC doesn't want a meeting with him, and if he loses Peterborough, well he's going to have to prove his mettle as leader. He's done it before, and he can win. Why? There isn't any politican apart from JC's charisma or personality in the Labour Party that can beat him. They know this. JC's popularity is dwindling now because he was forced to take a position he didn't want to do. I assumed JC wanted to respect the will of the referendum (I think he voted for Brexit.) and assumed that the Govt would sort this mess out. The remainers latched onto the Labour Party and boom. Now if he tries to go back to backing Brexit, the voters aren't stupid. They'll instantly vote him out.
The Tories and Labour claim to hate each other, but they know what a mess they're in. Compared to the Lib Dems 2015 bad results, and Labour's 2010 bad results, this whole Brexit Saga is going to be their Waterlooo for them.
If Nigel wins in Peterborough, Westminister will do everything in their power to stop him. It's stupid you know. The best way to contain Nigel Farage was to bring him in Government and let him be part of the negotiating team or part of the diplomatic service,, they'd have the sense to retain him on a leash - total nonsense.
June 6th and June 7th. Watch out for these dates. Brexit Party will endorse Trump statements, and those two days will see a lot of anti-trump bashing. (Trump will not like this, and thus wants Nigel or Boris to come in.)
But even if Boris becomes PM, he'll struggle to maintain a consistent election campaign because the voters won't believe the lies the Conservatives did for them. Boris can do an outright 360 Trumpian style campaign - but it won't work. Nigel already has established himself as a potential tiger in the jungle. Bring any other candidate apart from Boris and they'll flop. Conservatives are weak debaters. The British Political establishment is doing everything possible not to let Nigel into power.
Ironically they're doing more to help his chances of becoming PM, increasing vote share in Parliament, etc.
They're doing the same Anti-Trump campaign that the Democrats and Obama went on that train, and now they're doing it to Nigel.
The more you deter Nigel, the more people vote for him.
In my view, the week commencing 21 September is the critical one, the Labour Party conference. At that point the fence Corbyn is sitting on will break.
Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar
"Out of the crooked tree of humanity,no straight thing can be made." Immanuel Kant
"Oh Yeah? What about a cricket bat? That's pretty straight. Just off the top of my head..." Al Murray, Pub Landlord.
You have to keep in mind two things:
-relatively few voters are single-issue voters;
However:
-most voters care primarily about 3-4 issues at best;
This is why for instance the Remain field is spliy between Lib-Dem and Greens. A lot of people want to Remain but to them the environment is more important. Mainstream parties generally dominate when they can focus on those 3-4 issues that the most care about. Now, Brexit is what roughly 60-70% of Brits want a solution about. If you don't have a core strategy about it, you are out. Everything else is secondary.
It also means that once Brexit is out and that's by the end of the year I think, we'll see whether the Brexit Party and Lib Dems have real staying power. It is possible. I'm keeping an eye on the Conservative leadership contest, the lack of ideas is astounding. Bojo relies on lack of clarity in what he wants to do. The rest are adopting May's compromise strategy, which is not going to work. Amazing. Labour is in a similar chaos, albeit with less pressure but it has the ongoing anti-semitism problem. They can both disappear.
Indeed i think that is fair to say. The trick would be at any snap election, which of these key issues come to the fore. At 2017 we saw Labour essentially surge up the polls as time went on, simply because they concentrated on austerity and specifically NHS funding. The Conservatives strategy was to make it 'about brexit', but this failed to become the 'central issue'. So i think alongside voters who have their issues, i suspect many people also follow the 'spin' campaigns of the parties and see what the media and parties have made a central battleground to influence their decision. It also for me is why the Brexit Party Manifesto (to add to the very correct list of things people have said are dates to watch ) is going to be such an important event for its parties future in any snap pre-brexit GE (I tend to agree with you that post-brexit, the Lib-dem and Brexit party will have a real fight to shift to a platform that is domestically acceptable and popular), as i believe given the attention the Conservatives will heap on them alongside Labour, this will be where the fight truly be across a few fronts. NHS perhaps, Social Care, Working poverty, wealth inequality and state intervention might all feature heavily (the issue being indeed the Tories have done essentially 0 domestically legislation since 2016, so there are a lot of options ) alongside brexit. Thus far, Brexit party spokespeople haven't been great in articulating any sort of policy that 'might' be electorally successful beyond brexit- however this is because i don't think they've actually started to sort anything yet. The bright side and downside is that due to their party structure, no one gets a say but Farage in those policies. Which makes drafting efficient, but also means it will be through Farage's lens, which judging by past comments and policies he tends to misjudge the domestic by a wide margin.So we'll see.
God the Tory leadership contest... if anyone ever wants to see what the death of a party looks like, this is a historic example. When you're next leaders (which should be usually a way to 'revitalize' and re-engage the party) are either intellectually challenged on actual policy creation (or indeed as Boris, don't really bother with that sort of thing), and nearly all the 'big guns' have been absolute failures in their respective offices (even 'forgettable' offices that tend to not generate political capital, like Gove as environment secretary- he actually has managed to cause controversy by his support of scrapping green belt areas and supporting the implementation of extra taxation that will essentially kill of Britain's potential as a 'Green energy' manufacturer, which weirdly we'd been building up quite successfully until the last few years. Even worse though, no matter the leader now, due to how divisive its already been, there is a very likely scenario in which the Conservatives ruin themselves with (at best) possibly voting themselves out of government (Though say with Boris, i'm not sure how the subsequent GE might help them regain Brexit Party voters- it would likely result in the Conservatives no longer being in government, but it also may curtail the hopes of the Brexit Parties impact and make a hard struggle even harder to get a significant amount of seats)- Again the weird scenario here is still that Brexit Party success, might lead to.... well.... whatever line Labour and the Lib-dems can agree on, which in itself i suspect is not going to be the 'walk' most commentators are predicting. Corbyn is a euro-sceptic, the Lib-dems are full EU integration essentially. This will not be a happy coalition negotiation if it comes to that.
Labour are indeed equally frustrating, as @Mongrel said, key for them will be the Conference, the party membership want a firm line, most for remain, others for brexit. A 'compromise' that may work somewhat is the second referendum (but that doesn't really solve anything i suspect given i doubt it will lead to a sustainable majority). However with the anti-semitism issue, and indeed with the manufacturing of problems (Like kicking out Campbell, to now having to back down and potentially readmit him)- Labour has forgotten 'power politics' and what is important is getting into power. They keep making silly mistakes by miring themselves in issues that do not matter. Anti-semitism could have been resolved ages ago (or i get that its being used partly as a stick by the Conservatives, but they could have taken the sting out of it) by listening to the groups effected, adopting the definition of it without reservation (even if and lets be cynical, you don't agree with it, it doesn't matter- the Palestine/Israel issue is one for a later day, and one that doesn't really concern the UK regardless in any major way) and get their house in order. Instead its been allowed to drag. So indeed this is with less pressure than the Conservatives, but there are still two big issues- fence sitting, and anti-semitism (as well as the Watson-Corbyn divide) that are actually quite volatile potentially, and might see Labour randomly blow itself up one day, quite unexpectedly.
Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; June 02, 2019 at 04:18 AM.
Gove is polling like second (waaay behind Bojo) and said he'd postpone Brexit until 2020 to try to get a better deal. You know he's a moron. It's not what those voters who shifted to Farage want. He's not going to win them back this way. He's certainly not going to win any Remainer vote back either, because those want to remain at all costs. And it's also not going to happen because the EU is not going to allow Farage with a 30%+ to meddle in their business for over a year, especially when key positions in the EU are being assigned.
So who the hell is Gove trying to fool? It's not a believable promise and nobody cares anyway. Hell, you had Osborne asking for a second referendum and that's still not enough anymore. Why? Because Lib Dems will promise to cancel Brexit altogether and thus win remain voters that way. So what can you do? Go to the Brexit voters and say ''we are leaving without a deal''. People whine because I'm harsh towards mainstream politicians. However this mess proves me right. They have no idea what the electorate wants.
It seems as if the whole Conservative Party will announce that they're going to run for the leadership candidate.
13 MPs in the race for Conservative leadership?
These Conservative MPs were very happily sipping campagne in five star hotels, congraluting themselves when the measures of austerity and public cuts put financial struggle on middle class voters. There is a reason why Labour won the popular vote because the people were fed up of austerity, then Labour are no different tbh.
And their BS excuse there was no money - ofc there is! Otherwise how else would you fund those lavish conferences and parties? How much taxpayer's money has been wasted due to this saga mess?
Dear me, I didn't see that many 13 Mps run for leadership of the Conservative Party when Cameron resigned! Where were you lot then?
Theresa May has done such a bad job leader its like the whole cabinet engulfed into civil war once she was gone.
Even the days of Gladstone, Diserali and Churchhill would have aborred this inhorrent leadership! I mean the UK was respected one time as an Empire!
Now look....UK has been reduced to an extent of maybe...Spain's power. And Spain isn't even a powerful country.
Actually, the UK's position is similar to the Spanish in 1898. Spain pretty much like Britian possesed a few islands, and the Americans were eager to take the Spanish islands of Cuba. The Spanish Government could have negoitated a deal where they withdrew without sacrificing the lives of so many men. Spain wasn't even a functional country to even have a proper army that could defeat America. Britian in today's age had the political might to challenge the EU. Both Governments messed up their deals and boom.
After this lunacy of leadership - voters aren't going to vote Con even if Boris became PM.
And Trump is right. Send in Nigel Farage. Even he now seems resonable enough instead of the fruitcakes and loonies the Conservative Party has to offer!
Or else what you will see is the biggest upheveal in political history.
Actually sending in Farage would be fun. Let´s see how hardline brexiteer can do it properly and what he will do with rest of internal issues. And then of course blame him in case it is gigantic pile of mess.... SO far, he is just all the talk but once he is responsible for the stuff.
That reminds me of the ''rational consumer'' theory, according to which people balance their consumption according to their budget. Nobody really believes that to be true. People are ''irrational'' and monetary value isn't everything. Indeed for Brexiteers whatever economic benefit they might accrue by belonging to the EU isn't worthy the country's sovereign independence. Similarly plenty of studies show that using economic arguments to prove the benefits of immigration has zero impact when it comes to people wanting to preserve their identity.
Then they should not be pandered to. There are millions of working Britons whose pay is so poor that they rely on benefits and those benefits have been cut. There are millions of others who have had pay freezes and pay cuts for more than 10 years. Those are the people that need targeting as chlorinated chicken won't placate them.
Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar
"Out of the crooked tree of humanity,no straight thing can be made." Immanuel Kant
"Oh Yeah? What about a cricket bat? That's pretty straight. Just off the top of my head..." Al Murray, Pub Landlord.
You want to ignore 33% of British voters? Go for it!
Given FPTP, that's guaranteed victory for any party that panders to them. God bless democracy!
First act: scrap the ''Equality'' act.
Second act: criminalize denial, cover up of migrants crime as hate crime. A life time in jail for those who do will help.
Third act: immigration advocates/apologists are legally responsible for any crime committed by any migrant. This means that victims can sue them and win money.
Last edited by Basil II the B.S; June 02, 2019 at 03:27 PM.
Under the patronage of Pie the Inkster Click here to find a hidden gem on the forum!
He actually did it because he wanted his kids to have dual passport, there's zero evidence he wanted to run for the European Parliament in another country. Especially when he doesn't speak the language.
He applied for his entire family. He was only able to get them for his kids. He wanted to run in Poland or Hungary but people just laughed him off that idea because the patriots there do no allow foreigners to run in their country.
But your post raises some questions. If Brexit was a good idea and will be such a massive success, if the Eu is topically evil and all that, why did he want his kids to have Eu citizenship? Is he not confident in the "facts" he was campaigning on? Why did he try to buy a house in Romania of all places? Why did he apply for citizenship in 5 countries?
Under the patronage of Pie the Inkster Click here to find a hidden gem on the forum!
Do you have a source about him wanting to run in Poland or Hungary? Because indeed he'd have zero chances. They don't even need him. If there are two countries where Euroskeptics dominate, far more than the UK, that's them.
As for the rest: wanting the EU, as in a supranational state gone, doesn't imply he never wants to set foot on the continent again. He wants a continent of nation-states that trade and cooperate, not something run by unelected technocrats.
Settra I don’t particularly like the EU.
But the EU is not Europe.
And by the way what the hell is eu ‘citizenship’. Is the EU already a country?
33% of voters aren't dumb racists, they are confined to UKIP now. Much of the 33% will be of that lefty generation that opposed the EU at its inception or held their bosses at ransom by runing unions as closed shops.They are literally a dying breed.
I can see that time won't be on the Brexit Party's side. Already the US is looking to tear the UK a new one (restored sovereignty my arse), including a suggestion that US involvement in a privatised NHS is a must.So much for £350m pw week funding it. Bedsores and plague all round.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-trade-demands
How? Negotiations have ceased abd Farage doesn't have and would not carry a Parliamentary majority. We are literally in the same place we were before Christmas, but with no May.
Last edited by chriscase; June 02, 2019 at 09:42 PM. Reason: off topic removed
Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar
"Out of the crooked tree of humanity,no straight thing can be made." Immanuel Kant
"Oh Yeah? What about a cricket bat? That's pretty straight. Just off the top of my head..." Al Murray, Pub Landlord.