Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Aexodus]

Cameron left because he realized what cluster is ahead...2%. That´s not viable majority for decade long plan. We are three years in and brexiteeers are afraid of repeating referendum because they could lose this time. Three years...how often there are elections?

If remain had won the referendum, would the UK be operating on an unviable majority by staying in the EU?

[Daruwind]

If remain had won the referendum, would the UK be operating on an unviable majority by staying in the EU?

Nope. See, I have no problem with brexit. If it has major support and is well thought off. 2% majority is crappy result for any long term planning. :-) I would say I´m more for remain but if 66-75% or more people voted for leave, why not. Their majority choice. IF referendum, negotiations and preparation were conducted as "easiest" negotiation ever and got done actually (like getting results, like having right now all possible trade deals, agreement with EU without backstop, withdrawal agremeent etc...except right now Uk has none of that) then why not do it?

What is goal of leave now if it will make UK join in 5 years later? It will only damage EU as the whole, UK as well. I´m from Czech Republic and for me this is wasted time. I would like some reforms for EU, some moving forward, instead we are here stucked on brexit.

In current situation unless any brexit scenario is new total golden age for UK, it will simply boost the remain/rejoin option down the line in few years...

[QuintusSertorius]

Nope. See, I have no problem with brexit. If it has major support and is well thought off. 2% majority is crappy result for any long term planning. :-) I would say I´m more for remain but if 66-75% or more people voted for leave, why not. Their majority choice. IF referendum, negotiations and preparation were conducted as "easiest" negotiation ever and got done actually (like getting results, like having right now all possible trade deals, agreement with EU without backstop, withdrawal agremeent etc...except right now Uk has none of that) then why not do it?

That's nice for you, but you don't get to rewrite the rules of the referendum after the fact. I wonder how you feel about the Welsh devolution referendum, with barely a 50% turnout and just over a 50% in favour of creating the Welsh assembly and devolving powers to Cardiff?

What is goal of leave now if it will make UK join in 5 years later? It will only damage EU as the whole, UK as well. I´m from Czech Republic and for me this is wasted time. I would like some reforms for EU, some moving forward, instead we are here stucked on brexit.

In current situation unless any brexit scenario is new total golden age for UK, it will simply boost the remain/rejoin option down the line in few years...

I couldn't care less about "damage to the EU", the UK's sovereignty matters a lot more than some political bloc aspiring to nationhood. If you really think you're going to get "reforms", you're delusional. The EU only goes in one direction, "more Europe", van der Leyen and the other new hires are already talking about their plans for even deeper integration. Once the UK is gone, you might get the pleasure of becoming a contributor to the EU, rather than a recipient. But yes, I'm sure they could have accelerated those plans still further were they not still talking about Brexit.

People are more than welcome to campaign to rejoin after we've left. Though they might find that once all the posited horrors they warned us about fail to materialise, a lot of people will be wondering what they were on about.

[Elmetiacos]

May did nothing to stop them usurping the order paper, which enabled the Cooper-Letwin Act. I think we might find Johnson does rather more with the levers at his disposal.

What exactly do you think all these mysterious levers are that Boris has in his virtual political signal box?

Makes a big difference whether or not the PM is actually trying to stop those sorts of unconstitutional ploys. Not to mention simply sending everyone home by proroguing.

How are the ploys "unconstituitional"? Prorogation has been off the agenda since the passage of the Benn-Burt amendment last month.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

So we're beginning to see the wider repercussions of the UK's current course (that's brexit, the way the Government and Parliament have handled brexit, the popularization of politics etc)

https://www.conservativehome.com/pla...-the-lead.html

From the Conservativehome, which is naturally bias to all things Conservative, but is quite balanced on the 'different conservative' viewpoints within it, if that makes sense (i.e. Conservatives from One Nation to Thatcherite are all giving a fair platform...while they all spit on Labour ).

But the 'Boris effect' has happened in Scotland with polling at 52 to 48% for wanting Independence (Is it just me, or do those percentages come up a lot ). It is only one poll so far by Lord Ashcroft, however it is the first poll in two years that shows this. This has been seen (again on the Tories own platform) as a rather large threat to the future of the UK.

What's interesting though is that if pushed, the majority of Scots would prefer a Corbyn Government over a Boris one, (57% to 43%), but also that while Boris is one of the least liked politicians in Scotland, Ruth Davidson is actually the second favorite (Sturgeon is 50% positive to her 47%). Davidson who has a very different brand of Conservatism than Boris, and is also consistently tipped as a potential Tory leadership candidate (Despite her being an MSP, go figure- i guess just as Boris was Mayor). In a post-brexit setting (assuming Boris's government survives that long) they'll be an interesting 'battle for the soul of the party' i think developing- Much as with Thatcher's surprise take-over, between Davidson who can argue she puts the 'Union' in 'Unionist' party vs an incumbent Boris who delivered brexit and could say he's put the 'Conservative' into the 'Conservative' party (alright give me some time for a better slogan for him...).

[Ludicus]

Food for thought,
Nicole Sturgeon,

"I made abundantly clear to Boris Johnson my opposition to Brexit and to a no- deal Brexit, and also made clear to him that people of Scotland should be able to chart their own course and choose their own future and not have that future imposed upon them

By the time of the 2016 referendum, every single council area in Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Overall, 62% of Scots favored continued EU membership; 55,8% of the Northern Ireland favored the EU membership. Link

[Aexodus]

London voted to remain. What’s your point.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I think its more the issue that Scotland, unlike London has an extra political context (that also rears itself at the last few GE's) and that is Scottish Independence is a hot topic that some would argue brexit prevented from 'dying off', though i would argue essentially, much as my argument about EU membership, despite brexit happening (or not) -once something is raised politically, it becomes a contentious point for decades, with real political power if used/manipulated right. So the first Scottish referendum essentially opened the door to all this, just as i think the Brexit referendum will not be the end of 'brexit' or the issues over European membership- its not as if 'Remainers' are going to stop fighting for it, just as when we joined the EEC, they'll become a faction that waxs and wanes in power until it forces the issue again- worse with brexit being so polarizing it'll be more as the Scottish ref was- i.e. it was almost immediately put back on the political agenda to fight over.

I did attend a seminar about the UK's changing political constitution (Brexit featured heavily sure, but discussion was more about the battles a post-brexit society would have in defining itself politically), and it was observed though that while we laugh at London 'exiting' from the United Kingdom now, the idea of the SNP and the fact that we even had a Scottish referendum, let alone the potential for a second one (and let alone that Scotland both in the first referendum and potentially this second one was in serious danger of leaving the UK) was also laughed at historically- even in the early 20th century when main political (and national thought) had Scotland merely as 'Northern Britian'- indeed its rather interesting just how recent and virile Scottish Independence is (its why many tie it to the decline of Britain as an imperial project severing the ties that held the two states pragmatically together).

In the same vein though thus, London in the coming decades, particularly if Scotland leaves (which was deemed likely in the long term, the UK just lacks a cohesive identity, and currently the competing identities on other politically and socially are ironically too polarizing to actually unify the four constituent parts in any meaningful way) is a possibility. Given the power dis-balance between England and London (the former is actually a drain on the resources of the latter) and arguably the fact that London since the 1840s (and certainly with the advent of free trade) became an 'Imperial Capital', no longer tied to the developing English identity, something that ironically today is less pronounced, but that is because England has been 'Londonized' (a term from the talk i will steal), with a fight-back from both a more traditional 'English' identity (whose tenants are quite admirable) as well as the trend across Britain to 're-imagine' regionalisms (I say re-imagine, because that is exactly what the Scottish, Welsh, Yorkshire, Cornwall etc are doing- drawing on a historic past for the best bits and modernizing them). So there is a possibility down the line, that not to do with brexit, though brexit will probably act as a signpost of 'divergence' that London may simply become a city-state and financial hub (Which honestly with the City of London corporation and its very undemocratic control and real influence over Parliament- it already kinda is its own thing- if we track Scottish Independence to Scotland getting its own assembly as a major point, the fact the City of London has unelected parliamentary representatives with significant powers to protect the Cities interests is a similar thing and far older) on its own.

[Basil II the B.S]

Scotland independence now leading the polls:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/sta...71430997544960

Too late?

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Scotland independence now leading the polls:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/sta...71430997544960

Too late?

Never late, though I think i pipped you to the post in bringing it up , but its good to see others think of it as an interesting political development. It certainly from the ConservativeHome link i posted has concerned the Tory base. As i sort of alluded it hits to the heart of the Tories potentially as a party not surviving brexit, as it fundamentally opens too many divides. Are Conservatives prepared to risk the break up of the union (The 'Unionist' party) to deliver brexit? Are they though also willing to risk anhiliation in their English heartlands (again referring to an academic article i posted a few months back- Aexodus has the bibliography where i get the nationalist stuff from, so ask him ) the Conservatives are paradoxically both for the Union, but a particularly 'English' conception of it, and more importantly England's role within it- particularly in the political symbolism they use. So would they as things develop turn down the chance for a clean-break as most Tory party members wanted (Remembering that poll that put forward they cared more about brexit being carried out than any economic cost) if it meant securing the Union?

Of course its not as simple as 'Is brexit worth more than the union?' as i mentioned- both are issues that feed into each other, but would still cause polarization and divides even without the other, indeed another question is 'Is Boris worth the union?' giving the polling data about political parties i posted

[Basil II the B.S]

Hadn't read your previous post ahah, I saw the word ''Scotland'' being thrown around but I'm overworked today + Italian heat = brain meltdown. Either way, to answer your question:
''Are Conservatives prepared to risk the break up of the union (The 'Unionist' party) to deliver brexit?''
You saw the polls about that one. I think it was 60% of Brexit voters wanting to flip the table about Scotland as well so long that it means clean exit. That means if Tories don't risk it, Farage will.
Western politics simply has little room for compromise these days.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Hadn't read your previous post ahah, I saw the word ''Scotland'' being thrown around but I'm overworked today + Italian heat = brain meltdown. Either way, to answer your question:
''Are Conservatives prepared to risk the break up of the union (The 'Unionist' party) to deliver brexit?''
You saw the polls about that one. I think it was 60% of Brexit voters wanting to flip the table about Scotland as well so long that it means clean exit. That means if Tories don't risk it, Farage will.
Western politics simply has little room for compromise these days.

Haha its alright mate, i entirely sympathise- comparatively its rather cool here especially vs you guys, and its still way to hot for me (Ginger Scot down South) .

Good point about how knits in. I wonder then if the Tories do follow through (to keep the BP threat from undermining them), if we'll see a split on the right, with a 'Unionist' party being formed that is essentially Cameron's Tories, 'One Nation' guys et al who can provide a home for the Conservative votes who did not want brexit (as well as be a place for Scottish unionists), while the rump of the Conservative party continuing as current- 'Global Britain' (which is a divisive policy inside the Tories already) and making the post-brexit UK a 'success' as opposed to caring if Scotland remains. Though of course we're now prematurely talking about the discussion (that admittedly i've been eagerly trying to push far too soon ) of the 'Battle for the Soul of Brexit' that will follow the 31st, over just what the UK will become.

[Aexodus]

Fair enough about Scotland but I was thinking of Northern Ireland. Him and Daruwind are suggesting we join the Republic.

[Basil II the B.S]

Honestly I expect England to be the tyrant of Scotland for the next few years. Scotland has consistently voted differently anyway, it's far more left wing. However the occasion to leave has passed and I don't see Westminster giving it another shot in the immediate, meaning they will bully Edimburgh throughout Brexit.

If there's something that Scottish independentists can learn from Brexit is that they must be stubborn long enough until they get to vote to leave again.It took Farage 30 years to get it done and given the mediocrity of May and Cameron, it's pretty safe to say he has been the most influential British politician of this century so far.

Fair enough about Scotland but I was thinking of Northern Ireland. Him and Daruwind are suggesting we join the Republic.

Ireland has gone from being one of the most Catholic countries in the world to one of the most liberal within a generation thanks to education. There's actually a study on this (though based on England):https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...cation-effect/

Though the data are comparable to Ireland if you look at the percentage out of the total population that went to university now and then. Given that religion has died out, the main reason for division has disappeared; now it's just ''the Irish nation'' again. I expect to see united Ireland within our lifetime.

[Daruwind]

Fair enough about Scotland but I was thinking of Northern Ireland. Him and Daruwind are suggesting we join the Republic.

Look at it from distance. You need some kind of catalysm for both triggering Scots to leave and NI to join Ireland. SO question is how long and how severe cluster the whole brexit mess must be in order to trigger it..

[Aexodus]

Ireland has gone from being one of the most Catholic countries in the world to one of the most liberal within a generation thanks to education. There's actually a study on this (though based on England):https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...cation-effect/

Though the data are comparable to Ireland if you look at the percentage out of the total population that went to university now and then. Given that religion has died out, the main reason for division has disappeared; now it's just ''the Irish nation'' again. I expect to see united Ireland within our lifetime.

You’re hilariously wrong. Religious divisions are very much still there, and it’s an argumentative fallacy to assume no religion = United Ireland.

[Basil II the B.S]

Didn't Ireland recently have a referendum to legalize abortion or something like that?

[Daruwind]

Didn't Ireland recently have a referendum to legalize abortion or something like that?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44256152

May 2018, The Republic of Ireland has voted overwhelmingly to overturn the abortion ban by 66.4% to 33.6%.

But honestly Basil, how does it connect to Brexit? In this instance my imagination failed me...

[Basil II the B.S]

Short term? No effect. Long term? The EU could try to seek retribution for Brexit by supporting Irish reunification and Scottish independence. Though the EU sucks at foreign policy and almost never has a coherent line, even when it comes to just following US initiatives.

The whole point of the referendum is that there's a clear shift in Irish culture because 20 years ago something like that would have never passed. Religion is significantly less salient that it was. Then again, Aexodus simply posted a one liner which seemed more interested in burying me rather than offering a counter point.

[Elmetiacos]

Short term? No effect. Long term? The EU could try to seek retribution for Brexit by supporting Irish reunification and Scottish independence. Though the EU sucks at foreign policy and almost never has a coherent line, even when it comes to just following US initiatives.

Spain would block any attempt to do anything like that, because of their own separatist problems.

The whole point of the referendum is that there's a clear shift in Irish culture because 20 years ago something like that would have never passed. Religion is significantly less salient that it was. Then again, Aexodus simply posted a one liner which seemed more interested in burying me rather than offering a counter point.

The division is now between secular, liberal UK and ROI and the religious bigots in the North...