Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #2241
    Taraphir's Avatar Semisalis
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    460

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    The latest YOUGOV poll puts the conservatives first, followed closely by the Brexit Party:
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...alls-4th-place

  2. #2242

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    As long as the staying power of the Brexit Party isn't verified, it's hard to make good arguments. Lack of approaching elections also helps keeping the situation volatile. You have 10% points swings per poll, that's just nonsense.

  3. #2243
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
    Civitate Magistrate

    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    United Kingdom
    Posts
    4,988

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Taraphir View Post
    The latest YOUGOV poll puts the conservatives first, followed closely by the Brexit Party:
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...alls-4th-place

    Volatility is indeed rather widespread, as Basil mentioned most UK pollsters struggle when things are beyond a mainly binary split (not their fault, the FPTP system they have to model, which in itself is horrid for polling typically is a nightmare) though i'd point out that isn't a recent poll, its from the 4th prior to several of the major political events i alluded to. It also was something of an outlier at the time in terms of whose where, but it is indeed broadly in keeping with current polling in terms of their being essentially a four party split ostensibly, with lib-dems and brexit party having a significant impact, but not being in terms of seats all that important as for instance with FPTP, Labour's 'super majority' constituencies (something which the Conservatives and Lib-dems lack) undermines polling expectation, hence why they traditionally are rather 'protected' from drops in vote share which fail to translate into equivalent drops in actual seats, while the brexit party faces either getting a fair few seats (around 60ish again in that poll) or indeed 0 seats with the same vote share thanks to the Constituency spread- Brexit party seats essentially being the Conservatives parties to lose, though in the brexit parties favour has been from what can be seen thus far, the break-down of the Conservatives campaign machine. But essentially breixt party and lib-dems represent the 'real' brexit debate, whose votes have been stored, and its up to the Lab and Cons to 'mine' them as best they can. So far this hasn't been too successful, Boris for instance is set to win the leadership, but recent polls have the Tories losing vote share, or indeed in the YouGov one, the Boris effect has failed to get the Tories back the seats they'll need to face a GE, let alone replace the voters lost to the lib-dems due to their brexit position.

    Most recent polls though do currently show Labour are having an easier time potentially regaining votes because they are the opposition, and are trying to avoid anything brexit related as far as possible, by fudging their stance somewhat (In fairness, its not that its actually fudged, i get their parameters, but they are being very sure to leave it in a very 'fluid' state, helped by the front bench essentially adopting a remain position, while Corbyn sticks to his traditional brexiteer stance). The trick will be how long everyone will put up with said fudge, the race being if they can spot and adapt their position to any changes that happen before their supporters/voters they're trying to grab or get back become too annoyed and go the a remain or brexit party.
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; July 13, 2019 at 06:14 PM.
    House of Caesars: Under the Patronage of Char Aznable

    Proud Patron of the roguishly suave Gatsby


  4. #2244
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Prague
    Posts
    2,208

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    What I found as most amusing aspect is, we are in half of July and basically nothing has changed from supposed original Brexit date. Not internally, that is UK own issue but from EU point of view...Nothing. What I mean, if we extrapolate what will happen according to current pace of things up to now....not much will happen by Christmas.

    And internally it might even look worse then before. Because before, there was prospect, that May will be gone...Now she is effectively gone but current situation is no better at all. Can Boris or any other unite the party? Nope. They will again waste time with pointless negotiation and no-deal scenario will be yet again probably voted off right before deadline. Why? Because it was once before voted off...

    We are 3+ months after Brexit date and no-deal scenario preparations are how much further? And another deadline date is nearing...
    Last edited by Daruwind; July 14, 2019 at 07:34 AM. Reason: grammar :)

  5. #2245
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
    Civitate Magistrate

    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    United Kingdom
    Posts
    4,988

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Indeed this is exactly it, ironically, and perhaps because of the candidates (though i can't think of any current Tory MP in a position to bid for leadership who could reunite their party in fairness) the Tory leadership elections are essentially just wasted time. Whoever gets in they will be May mk.2 because of the Arithmetic, they'll also most likely be forced to do a GE on their own initiative as again majority of 3 in this parliament essentially has proven to mean no majority at all and again the really big think even if we 'no deal' it on the 31st October, there is a ton of legislation after that for Parliament to resolve related to it. The 31st is not 'Brexit resolved' its merely the start of the process, and again this is something i think the Conservative leadership candidates have lost sight of, post-31st if we've 'left' you could well have a GE currently that sees a softie or even remain party in who will reverse the no-deal position to a customs union quite easily (Providing they had a majority of course). Again the big problem currently and you can see this in the 'Brexit Party' and 'Lib dems' who are essentially neck and neck. There is still three years on no way forward for a sustainable brexit that will politically hold.

    However, i don't think many Tories, and certainly not their leadership candidates really give a damn if brexit is sustainable or 'works' or not. Currently it seems very much like its a looming danger they just want ticked off and done with before it destroys their party. The issue being brexit isn't something you can just 'tick off' asap, it fundamentally effects the entirety of the UK, right down to the kind of society we then wish to shape, to work needs to be implemented and presided over by a leader and party who are serious not about 'Brexit is the greatest thing ever, ignore all the negatives consequences' or 'Brexit is the biggest disaster ever, ignore the potential for change'. This is an area though where the Tories are their new potential leaders and entirely lacking.
    House of Caesars: Under the Patronage of Char Aznable

    Proud Patron of the roguishly suave Gatsby


  6. #2246
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Prague
    Posts
    2,208

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I think actually pushing no-deal scenario under current situation is the worst possible option even for brexiteers. I would split them into two groups. 1) fanatics wanting brexit no matter what. Well they donīt care so they are irrelevant for whatever else... 2) the realistic brexiteers, for whom the brexit question should stick around longer to get gone...and everybody must understand that such option require brexit to be successful and actually improve situation of UK.....which in current situation cannot happen. Trade deals negotiation is dead in water, commonwealth nations are waiting too...

    And again..we are nearing situation that there is not enough time to be prepared, have all the legislature, laws...

    What I see as problem is that from Uk point of view, there is this notion that the decision can be,could be somehow still push further and further...that basically EU wants to prevent brexit so we can balance on the edge little longer. My problem with this approach is from opposite direction. EU has to agree with any extension and right question is, how much longer EU can keep it together. We saw Macron doing vibes and making muscles...now we are getting new EU leadership, Salvini might be doing fuss about his recent Russia money or even migration...That would be okey if there were already some kind middle term/long term way for britain..instead of brexit date being October 31. Having brexit date letīs say 2020 with very same quoting ( A Brexit extension "only as long as necessary" and "no longer than 31 October" to allow for the ratification of the withdrawal agreement..isntead put there 31 October 2020 ...eas ypeasy a few years for britain to clear things up ... ) But thatīs not here. So question is, will Uk ask for another extension and will get any? Or another 6 moths? I think that in case there is no no-deal scenario before October, we will probably see some long term extension even a few years for Uk to unlock internal state...
    Last edited by Daruwind; July 17, 2019 at 12:59 PM.

  7. #2247

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    In the spirit of the OP I would suggest revoking article 50 , to be invoked at a later point once a Royal Commission suggests a way forward. The issue is too big or this Parliament to handle and, in a political sense, Britons need to get a life and tend to the things that need attention, like poverty, housing and why it is so bloody hot today.

    News just in. It looks as if the new PM won't be able to prorogue Parliament in order to get Brexit through.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/17/commons-showdown-looms-after-peers-pass-amendment-to-block-no-deal


    Edit: The Commons has now tabled its anti proroguing amendment.



    Update:-it passed, Boris is confounded!
    Last edited by mongrel; July 18, 2019 at 09:05 AM.
    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

    "Out of the crooked tree of humanity,no straight thing can be made." Immanuel Kant
    "Oh Yeah? What about a cricket bat? That's pretty straight. Just off the top of my head..." Al Murray, Pub Landlord.

  8. #2248

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    ...and by 41 votes, with one minister resigning to vote against the government and several others - including the Chancellor Philip Hammond - abstaining. It looks like a 1642 scenario has been averted.
    Resident Language Geek
    Baseless Assertions on the Celts Since 1996

  9. #2249

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    This a pretty good read from a pro-Brexit Labour (or what's left of it) perspective. Bias aside it has some really valid points.
    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/...-of-corbynism/

  10. #2250

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Elmetiacos View Post
    ...and by 41 votes, with one minister resigning to vote against the government and several others - including the Chancellor Philip Hammond - abstaining. It looks like a 1642 scenario has been averted.
    Could be the first time a Prime Minister has been defeated before taking office, LOL!


    Johnson has also been caught lying to his party and indeed the nation on national TV. This kind of nonsense will kipper his vision of Brexit.


    Also as an Irishman with a recollection of Britain's role in the Great Famine, I find this particularly disturbing........

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...land-1.3725093
    Last edited by mongrel; July 18, 2019 at 04:03 PM.
    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

    "Out of the crooked tree of humanity,no straight thing can be made." Immanuel Kant
    "Oh Yeah? What about a cricket bat? That's pretty straight. Just off the top of my head..." Al Murray, Pub Landlord.

  11. #2251

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    i actually want Farage to win, this is the guy who popularised the entire Brexit movement, let him be the one to solve it.

    Otherwise, all he is, is a career politician looking to live fat off the EU's expense by being an MEP and doing SFA.

  12. #2252

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I'm sort of convinced that once Brexit is solved, Farage would make a terrible PM. Then again you had Theresa May, David Cameron , Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. If you made a poll to ask who did more damage to the UK, it'd be a tough choice.

  13. #2253

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Basil II the B.S View Post
    I'm sort of convinced that once Brexit is solved, Farage would make a terrible PM. Then again you had Theresa May, David Cameron , Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. If you made a poll to ask who did more damage to the UK, it'd be a tough choice.
    Farage was the one who really got the Brexit ball rolling, even before Gordon Brown called for the Brexit election; way back in 2008 he was making all sorts of noise about leaving the EU.

    It's become clear that Farage has simply used the british continental antipathy for his own political career; getting a cushy job in mainland europe talking about his european hosts and getting a nice lucrative MEP's salary to boot, much more than what he would have earned as a trader back before he entered politics. The fact that he's said he's willing to 'continue serving as MEP' even after Brexit simply highlights how much he would prefer to live off the generosity of the EU than doing any actual work.

    So it would be poetic justice if he was elected PM although i'll bet he'd just resign like he did last time.

  14. #2254

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    BoJo's reign starts poorly:

  15. #2255

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Basil II the B.S View Post
    I'm sort of convinced that once Brexit is solved, Farage would make a terrible PM. Then again you had Theresa May, David Cameron , Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. If you made a poll to ask who did more damage to the UK, it'd be a tough choice.
    If measured purely by wads in my wallet, and ease by which legislation was drawn up and passed, the Tony years were the best. Mind you I left UK Armed Forces by then, thus missed his wars. Boris may be the last PM of a United Kingdom


    Nice illustration of the UK's obsession for targets btw . I may even grant rep.
    Absolutley Barking, Mudpit Mutt Former Patron: Garbarsardar

    "Out of the crooked tree of humanity,no straight thing can be made." Immanuel Kant
    "Oh Yeah? What about a cricket bat? That's pretty straight. Just off the top of my head..." Al Murray, Pub Landlord.

  16. #2256
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    U.K.
    Posts
    3,789

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    If measured purely by wads in my wallet, and ease by which legislation was drawn up and passed, the Tony years were the best. Mind you I left UK Armed Forces by then, thus missed his wars. Boris may be the last PM of a United Kingdom
    It was the Blair government that set the path for the breakup iof the UK by his devolution plan, whilst doing nothing to reform Parliament itself.

    Nice illustration of the UK's obsession for targets btw . I may even grant rep.
    Why would you give rep, for something that advocates cutting people in half, if it isn't a magic trick. Then again it would make them easier to get passed in shop doorways.

  17. #2257

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I'm fairly sure the average 30+ years old Western citizen remembers the 90s as economically better times. It doesn't have much to do with the government they had since there was quite variance in terms of center right and left, though with rather identitical stances on core issues. Indeed that stance is why most people are worse off now.


    I'm not sure what's wrong with the communication strategies of British politics but it's not a rare problem. Here's Turning Point UK:


    Spelling mistakes aside, they are referencing a meme of a UK college graduate histerically screaming ''I'm literally a communist'' that was made fun of worldwide for a few days. I'm not sure how exactly copying the cringeworthy left will make the right look better? It's even more cringey and spelt wrong.

    All of which pales in comparison to People's Vote, who are seeing an infight over what strategy to adopt: come out as Remainers or stay ''neutral''. The underlying reasoning of the discussion is that they believe that voters are imbecilles who totally do not see People's Vote as a Remain group. However, that's not even important, what's important is that the movement is splitting over that discussion.
    Amazing.

  18. #2258

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Johnson's strategy set out to the HoC this lunctime is a familiar and predictable one: propose something the EU can't possibly agree to, then when everything goes horribly wrong blame it on Johnny Foreigner and his "intransigence".
    Resident Language Geek
    Baseless Assertions on the Celts Since 1996

  19. #2259

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    It's actually more sensible. The biggest stakeholder in the EU is Germany. Germany is in deep now. The country is at heavy risk of recession because of Trump's tariffs. The German economic model, which should be ''the model'' for the EU economy doesn't look sustainable any longer, because export driven economies need an importer on the other side. The banking sector is also in deep because if the ECB cuts rates even further into negative territory, they are going to post massive losses by the end of the year. Deutsche Bank is downsizing bit time to avoid that the crater it leaves trounces the entire country.

    Why is Brexit relevant? Because it might as well cost Germany 100k jobs if it's a no-Deal one. So Johnson simply has to call Merkel and say: ''do you want to have a Merry Christmas in 2019? Give us a good deal''.
    Last edited by Basil II the B.S; July 25, 2019 at 11:53 AM.

  20. #2260
    Carmen Sylva's Avatar Domesticus
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Location
    Palace of Neuwied
    Posts
    2,228

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Meanwhile in reality, not in Avalon, where about green grasslands jumping unicorns fulfill every wish:

    EU negotiator Michel Barnier calls Boris Johnson's Brexit stance 'unacceptable'

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-negotiator-...ble/a-49748323



    Last edited by Carmen Sylva; July 25, 2019 at 12:43 PM.
    Proud Non-Citizen / My Mods


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •