Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Daruwind]

Brexit was an English problem yet constituencies in Wales and Northern Ireland voted for it

https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
N.I - 55.8% remain
Scotland - 62% remain
Wales - 52,5% leave
England - 53,4% leave

N.I didn´t..

[95thrifleman]

https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
N.I - 55.8% remain
Scotland - 62% remain
Wales - 52,5% leave
England - 53,4% leave

N.I didn´t..

Yet nearly 45% of NI did vote to leave so it can not be claimed that NI is a united remain block somehow isolated from the rest of the UK.

[Daruwind]

Yet nearly 45% of NI did vote to leave so it can not be claimed that NI is a united remain block somehow isolated from the rest of the UK.

By this logic yet 48,11% of UK did vote for remain so it can not be claimed that UK is a united block to leave at all?

Come on, if you claim that leave option won with 51,89% then in NI remain option won with better result of 55,8%..

[95thrifleman]

By this logic yet 48,11% of UK did vote for remain so it can not be claimed that UK is a united block to leave at all?

Come on, if you claim that leave option won with 51,89% then in NI remain option won with better result of 55,8%..

Firstly, NI is part of the UK, we are a united nation and in these cases it's the final count that matters.

Secondly, go through my posts, I'm on record as saying I don't like referendums and would prefer a minimum percentage for a decision to be made such as 55 or 60 percent.

Lastly, the bloody country is divided, it takes a complete idiot to not realise the nation is not united behind either leave or remain.

However the law is that the UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND voted in a referendum an the leave vote won. All these attempts to halt or reverse that decision are undemocratic and show that the system doesn't work.

[Daruwind]

Firstly, NI is part of the UK, we are a united nation and in these cases it's the final count that matters.

Secondly, go through my posts, I'm on record as saying I don't like referendums and would prefer a minimum percentage for a decision to be made such as 55 or 60 percent.

Lastly, the bloody country is divided, it takes a complete idiot to not realise the nation is not united behind either leave or remain.

However the law is that the UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND voted in a referendum an the leave vote won. All these attempts to halt or reverse that decision are undemocratic and show that the system doesn't work.

No offence but your previous post sounded like 45% for leave option in IN is being "victory" for leave ;-) but nevermind, I fully agree that there should be minimul threshold level heck even 66%.

[Alastor]

The divisions caused by the referendum across the constituent nations of the UK gives one a new appreciation of vetoes.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Boris lost his majority....during his own speech. Tory MP walks across while he gives his parliamentary address. The Former Tory MP Phillip Lee went straight to join the Lib-dems.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-mps-...rexit-11801143

[Gaidin]

https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
N.I - 55.8% remain
Scotland - 62% remain
Wales - 52,5% leave
England - 53,4% leave

N.I didn´t..

Question as an American:

Would the British system say that as first past the post there are four votes and N.I. voted to remain and this was a tie. Or would N.I. need a HELLUVA lot more than 55.8%(same for Scotland in theory) to really counter England and Wales?

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Question as an American:

Would the British system say that as first past the post there are four votes and N.I. voted to remain and this was a tie. Or would N.I. need a HELLUVA lot more than 55.8%(same for Scotland in theory) to really counter England and Wales?

Its part of the flaw of the Westminster system alas. In terms of political spin both narratives have weight if necessary, hence the SNP in Scotland using the referendum as both an argument that Scotland voted to remain (so sod the parts that voted to leave as they are not Scottish) but also as a highlight of how 'different' Scotlands political culture is.

In practical terms though, its compiled together- so even though the UK is a Union of countries of varying legal status, some like Scotland that are legally their own nations, others that are devolved (Wales)- its just a simple 'add all population'. The issue here of course is that as a Union, the UK has never really had to do as you guys in the US have had to tackle- how to make it 'fair' between the balance of power of states vs one another (and we of course lack any federal structure- England is deal with by Westminster... which leads to arguments of either 'the English oppress the other states of the Union, the UK is merely England's tool' vs 'The English get no representation whatsoever in the Union and thus large regions of that country are ignored, underdeveloped and left behind by Westminster- which is essentially a London-centric system'.

Indeed the 'West Lothian Question' in the case of Scotland has plagued (and continues to indeed) Union politics all throughout the modern era highlighting just how rubbish the UK is in structure, as in practice the system is broken and stunted and allows 'England' to dominate over the rest of the UK in any such vote, even while the majority of England in other concerns like economic development is for many of its regions simply ignored.

But in terms of popular votes - even if N.I, Wales, Scotland all voted a different way, it would not matter in how things are currently drawn up. FPTP its 'winner' takes all, by population.

So even if say Scotland voted 100% Remain and so did N.I. in actual practice it technically would not mean anymore than it does now. I.e. politically Scottish MP's and Sinn Fein i'm sure would use it to highlight how 'we're different', but in reality, England's population outnumbers the rest so much that it drowns them out.Thus why Scottish independence currently looks real damn likely for the first time ever alas.

EDIT: Interesting stuff happening- Boris has lost his majority now, tis gone AND it looks like tonight's legislation preventing no-deal will pass. Boris has just committed in Parliament to respecting it. It seems likely then that after tomorrow he will call a GE (Unless he gets a surprise win tonight in Parliament), HOWEVER- Fixed term act may screw him over in a big way, as their are lots of commentary swirling that say Labour might actually reject a GE currently. The lib-dems already will not support it, But the SNP would because they are set to literally take all Scottish seats.

So we could end up in a situation, where Boris is trapped. He's having to legally obey Parliaments legislation, but also that he's in a minority government (especially if he does as threatened and remove the whip from the 23 Tory rebels expected to vote against him later tonight), but will be unable to call a GE despite being such a minority, because Parliament won't let him... he'll potentially be trapped as a figure-head government having to essentially ditch an entire policy base to secure lib-dem or Labour support for doing anything until the opposition allow him to call a GE... this is exactly what the Lib-dems with Cameron wanted the Fixed Term Parliament act to do of course, as it prevented Cameron from ditching their coalition when the polls looked better. But its a state of affairs that might just see Boris's government ended as i don't think A) Voters are going to get just how trapped he might be in this situation- he'll be seen instead as betraying them B) It literally means legislation will only get through if it is not just cross-party, but needs significant support from Labour- we're back in the 1940s-60s social consensus territory- which is ironic when we've never have two parties more different from each other than the Tories and Labour are currently- it'll be the end of right-wing neoliberalism or left-wing socialism for as long as the opposition refuse to let Boris call a GE).

Of course Corbyn may also roll the dice, but currently it looks like we're going to get an enforced government of national unity that forces the scrapping of party politics for however long it lasts thanks to the Fixed Term Act potentially. Its an interesting scenario.

The way out of this for Boris would be to get the numbers to VoNC himself- and then be out, of course this leaves 14 days for other to form a new government...which may happen given he unified the opposition together. Though if they don't a GE will then be forced.

EDIT EDIT: Boris has also just said that he will de-select any ERG MP's from the Tory party who vote down any deal he brings back from the EU (This goes back into the point i made a few days ago, and that others have said too- he's simply going to ditch the back-stop and keep the rest of May's deal...if the EU even let him do that of course. But there goes working with Farage out the window).

[Copperknickers II]

Wow! Today has been yet another blitzkrieg of Brexit bombshells. A simple guide to what happens now:



Well, when I say 'simple'... geez, this week in British politics makes Game of Thrones look quite dull and predictable.


Basically, this is the most likely scenario now:

1. The Rebels seize temporary control of the House of Commons tomorrow, and try to force Boris to extend the deadline for another few months.
2. They win, and Boris' strategy of 'play chicken with the EU until they cave and give us a deal' is finally dead. Negotiations with Brussels stop.
3. Boris calls an election, and Labour narrowly back it.
4. The election will be held in October, and... yeah. It won't really solve anything. Maybe it will lead to a brief extension while everyone works out what the new parliamentary arithmetic is, and the whole process of finding parliament's agreed least-worst option will begin again. But the problem is, until the results are announced, Boris is not only still PM, but PM of a country with a dissolved parliament, which means he's essentially an absolute monarch for a short time and can freely move the date of the election, ignore parliamentary legislation intended to force his hand, or do whatever else he can think of to force through No Deal on October 31st.

So it's looking like 50/50 right now, between the downfall of Boris, and total victory for Boris, all depending on just how much of a constitutional crisis he is willing to cause.

We're now in the realms of character judgment, but based on past actions, I'd have said that Boris alone is fairly reckless and short-sighted as well as being a massive liar, but he's not demonstrated a willingness yet to actually break through the glass wall between "controversial" and "genuinely despicable". But Dominic Cummings, his advisor, sadly, has demonstrated exactly that tendency - he will do whatever it takes to win, regardless of legal boundaries, because his life experience has taught him that the winner takes all, and he also stands open to prosecution and even imprisonment if Labour were to take power, so he'll be advising with all his persuasiveness for Boris to do the unthinkable and go full dictator. I don't think that bodes well for Britain.

[Daruwind]

Question is, how soon EU will say that countless extension are pointless.."here, take 5 year extension with ability to left immidietely (or after short period of time) in case Uk parliament finally agrees on something nad/or ratify the agreement with EU". Honestly i expect that even if Ukask for short extension, EU will simply offer longer one because "we don´t wanna solve this again in 2-3-6 months...."

Because such longer extension is only thing that will somehow deescalate things immidiately at least for medium period of time.

[Muizer]

This originally written in the Telegraph. Posting Indy here as it has a less annoying cookie wall

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9089586.html

Would not surprise me in the least. Putting it mildly. Basically, there have been no meaningful negotiations since Boris took office. If true, it would mean any government claiming that the threat of no deal is vital to negotiations is a swindle.

[Cyclops]

Not surprised Johnson is not negotiating seriously, he's a "seat of the pants" player. He's not Trump though, he has to know Brussels will flay the UK if it can (he worked in Brussels for years as a reporter, albeit a singularly uninformed one): he lacks the finesse or imagination to create a solution, he's just a waffler with a certain brutish opportunism. What a goon to have in power at a time when the constituent Kingdoms and more importantly their ruling classes are so deeply divided.

As much as I dislike him, as legally and formally chosen First Minister Johnson has a clear mandate to take Great Britain out of the EU. "No Deal Brexit" will be a disaster, but its the people's Disaster and they have chosen it. Parliament with its faffing about has directly betrayed the People's Choice and made No Deal almost certain. The sheer dysfunction of the current Parliament is demonstrated by its paralysis in a crisis and the choice it has made of a complete plonker for Prime Minister.

Idiots chanting "stop the coup" are deliciously misguided: Parliament has effectively broken the constitution by clearly disregarding the terms and result of the referendum. If anything Johnson's clumsy prorogation plot is a step against a coup.

This looks like UK is out of Europe, followed by Scotland and possibly NI seceding and re-joining on worse terms. The Gammons have smashed the UK good and proper.

England always mattered more than the Celtic fringe in the UK, to my mind this is really an English decision based on English notions of supremacy. Such naked visions of race and hierarchy are an ugly reminder of the forces that formed modern nation states.

I honestly wonder what the Queen wants. I think she'd prefer the Union remain but the monarchy is probably doomed in or out of Europe. It will a very sad day when she passes, the last symbol really of British Unity. It may all fall apart even before she dies, and that would be a very sad day for such a calm, skilled and effective monarch.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

So Boris lost the vote by a rather large 28 (comparative to previous), he also then was slapped down by Corbyn, the SNP and Lib-dems about the challenge of a GE. They will not go for it unless he now commits this legislation to law. Very interesting stuff. Copperknickers is spot on about this being 50/50.

Its been mooted about that Boris might actually just accept this legislation without further fight as the price of a snap GE, and then he will essentially turn the GE into a mini-brexit referendum (... Though hopefully with more skill than May when she tried). Its damn dicey though, brexit party in play and Boris today firmly came out against them, so the chances of a Farage deal are now very tiny. If the election is fought overtly on Brexit, he also risks tactical voting by the 'opposition', especially as it seems (beyond my expectation i admit) the opposition are rather more unified than i thought they could be- the SNP didn't even break ranks to go for a GE where they'd win Scotland. So its all to play for really. But i suspect that Boris GE will not pass tomorrow, unless he adopts this legislation...which he will, in return for a snap GE (As then Labour can't really say no as they just did). Then we'll be off to the races with the date set around the 14 October- so yeah, a pre-brexit GE with a new parliament returned, and the 31st is rather officially dead pending anything weird tomorrow (and unless Boris can win a landslide on October 14th).

EDIT: Just to clarify by 'accept' i mean that he won't try and override it with a GE vote- he's already committed himself in Parliament to obeying the law on this, i don't even think Boris and Cummings are insane enough to get arrested in pursuit of brexit.

Also usual caveats of how tenuous everything is- the Lords on both sides are prepping for a battle, and both sides can try some rather imaginative things potentially, but it appears by the moves stated currently, their both going for the straight shoot for now.

[Common Soldier]

As an outside observer, I would like to point out the the Brexit vote was more than 2 years ago, and Britain still hasn't left the EU yet. By inaction, it has de fact given the remain vote the victory even though they lost the vote.

It seems to ms the remain people have secretly sabotaged efforts to leave by not coming up with a deal. After all, as long as Britain stays in the EU working out a deal, it's as if the Remain vote had won. I suspect many Conservatives are secretly in support of staying, but publically claim to support Leaving because thati what their constituents want. If I had been a Brexit supporter, I would be No Deal one, since no matter how long or many extentions you get, you still are not going to get a deal that is acceptable.

If 2 years wasn't enough time, how will 2 more years make any difference?

And for the Remain supporters, what is your goal by delaying the inevitable? Do you think Britain will change its mind? Get real. The Exit supporters will likely never tolerate that having won the vote Britain does not leave after all, no way would that be acceptable.

Best in my opinion is Britain leave on schedule, and after it discovers what a disaster leaving was, Britain can rejoin the EU.

By the way, I think Britain could have avoided the mess by instead of a simply majority vote, it required a a super majority (2/3 vote) to leave. There are times that more than a simple majority should be required. My 2 cents or pennies.

[mongrel]

TBH Brexit is undeliverable, that's what happens when a policy doesn't undergo basic scrutiny before being unleashed to an unknowing public. This is the economic equivalent of the Iraq War scandal.



I note that Operation Yellowhammer, the no-deal Brexit contingency plans were not published yesterday as planned. It should have been published sooner but Gove considered it too scary. Civil servants spent the whole weekend watering it down. It is still considered to worrying for the British public to read. Best do some prepping before we fight over the last dozen potatoes.

https://www.ft.com/content/c95b92ea-...4-b5ded7a7fe3f

[Copperknickers II]

It seems to ms the remain people have secretly sabotaged efforts to leave by not coming up with a deal.

A deal was presented to parliament by Theresa May. It was sabotaged by a number of different groups. Not only Remainers (and why should Remainers vote for it, they are mostly either in Opposition or in Remain seats, so they'd be going against their democratic responsibility if they voted in favour of Brexit), but also the hard Brexit supporting ERG Tories, and the Northern Irish DUP. It was first and foremost the hard Brexiteers who sabotaged their own policy and will have themselves to blame if it results in Brexit not happening.

And for the Remain supporters, what is your goal by delaying the inevitable?

Inevitable? Remain is still on the table, and if not Remain then at least soft Brexit. I hope my MP does everything in her power to undermine Brexit, I didn't vote for Brexit and nor did the majority of people in my country so I will not accept Scotland being dragged out of the EU against the will of its people. As for those in England and Wales, they are trying to avoid No Deal, which will affect nobody moreso than the strongly-pro Brexit areas of England. Those people didn't know what they were voting for, they didn't vote to become poorer and now this is the fate that a load of millionaire Etonians are trying to force on them.

Do you think Britain will change its mind? Get real. The Exit supporters will likely never tolerate that having won the vote Britain does not leave after all, no way would that be acceptable.

Britain already has changed its mind. If given a choice between No Deal and No Brexit, it's pretty clear the British public would choose No Brexit. I can't be sure of this, but the obvious and sane thing to do would be to have another referendum to decide it. It's totally normal to have two referenda in a situation like this: one at the start and one at the end of the process.

Best in my opinion is Britain leave on schedule, and after it discovers what a disaster leaving was, Britain can rejoin the EU.

You seriously think that any British PM is going to rejoin the EU if we have left? They'd be signing their own death warrant.

By the way, I think Britain could have avoided the mess by instead of a simply majority vote, it required a a super majority (2/3 vote) to leave. There are times that more than a simple majority should be required. My 2 cents or pennies.

Even I'd admit that a situation where 65% of people voted to Leave and were considered to have 'lost' the vote would be too ridiculous to countenance.

[Muizer]

Idiots chanting "stop the coup" are deliciously misguided: Parliament has effectively broken the constitution by clearly disregarding the terms and result of the referendum. If anything Johnson's clumsy prorogation plot is a step against a coup.

MP's are the only ones to truely hold a mandate from 'the people' and it comes from them being elected in their constituencies. MP's are entirely free to make up their own minds. That AND they are the sole providers of a democratic mandate to the government. Apart from that, the government only has an appointment from the Queen. Just to point out that in legal terms and in terms of precedent set for the future, you have to look at what is currently happening as if the referendum never happened.

[Elmetiacos]

But in order to call a general election, he needs a qualified majority vote in Parliament... what if he doesn't have it?

That's not relevant for two reasons:

1. He would only want to call a general election in circumstances where he was the clear favourite in the polls. Since that isn't currently true, he can afford to wait until it's forced upon him.
2. Corbyn has already committed himself to supporting a new general election and, given the circumstances, he won't have a better chance than this to get into power. Were he to refuse to back a motion for a new election he would lose all credibility.

Labour are not going to vote for a general election which lets Boris Johnson name the date for it and neither are any of the opposition parties... just call me Cassandra (not to my face though) Does he think he could win a majority in an election, even having booted out 20 of his own MPs - some of whom might stand anyway - or is this just a tactic to scare wavering Conservatives into backing him, lest they lose their seats?

[95thrifleman]

Labour isn't going to support a GE because they are scared of the lib dems, they need to find a way of being the saviours of remain before they will risk a GE.