Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[caratacus]

Commons Speaker John Bercow prevents debate on the the Government's deal with the EU under the Withdrawl Agreement Bill.

Brexit: MPs' vote on deal ruled out by Speaker John Bercow
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50128740
The Commons Speaker has refused a government request to hold a "yes" or "no" vote on its Brexit deal.

John Bercow said a motion on the deal had already been brought before MPs on Saturday, and it would be "repetitive and disorderly" to debate it again. Saturday's sitting saw an amended motion nodded through by MPs, which withholds approval of Boris Johnson's deal until it has been passed into law.

The PM agreed a deal with the EU last week, but it must be approved by MPs. Speaking in the Commons, Mr Bercow said he came to the decision on the basis of a parliamentary convention dating back to 1604. He cited Parliament's rulebook, Erskine May, which says a motion that is the same "in substance" as a previous one cannot be brought back to the Commons during the course of a single parliamentary session.

The Speaker also said the circumstances around the motion had not changed, so his ruling was "necessary... to ensure the sensible use of the House's time and proper respect for the decisions that it takes".

But Tory MP and Brexiteer Sir Bernard Jenkin appeared to accused Mr Bercow of bias, saying it was "remarkable" how often the Speaker "pleased one lot and not the other". "It is most unusual for a Speaker so often to prevent the government having a debate on the matters which the government wish put before the House," he added.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Indeed, in fairness the Government were really chancing it by attempting to bring it back again in same form considering its such a basic precedent, the complaints against it today did not have a leg to stand on, especially as overturning this precedent (as the Speaker could do) leaves Parliament open up to massive abuse in the future on non-brexit things (i.e. A future Corbyn Government could essentially just keep bringing back the same bill to nationalize banks, every day, of every month until MP's are bullied into doing something), indeed Reese-Moggs a mere few months ago commended the speaker for upholding this precedent against May (as did most ERG MP's).

The actual annoyance is that now amendments can be added to it (Something that the Government hoped to avoid), and potentially the economic impact of May and Boris's deal (that so far he's trying to hide from scrutiny) can be analyzed. This might upset the numbers game, which is close again, though i suspect its likely the Government might get the deal through this week, providing they don't play silly buggers.

EDIT: An interesting point- but the economic impact assessments being hidden and Parliament essentially 'blind-voting' on the Brexit deal as was attempted Saturday would help Johnson's government in the coming snap-GE as the blame for passing such a deal could fairly be argued to the public that all MP's who voted for it (Not just the Conservative Government) are responsible for any economic fallout (Actual and ones that are spun on it, such as a potential Africa loan based recession)- this might help somewhat even the playing field in favour of the Conservatives surviving the passing of the May-Boris deal and again in a context where from 2010 majorities have been incredibly hard to come by, every small ounce of advantage helps. I suspect then the tug over the economic impact assessments are less about what brexit means- but more about providing 'legitimacy' for both sides- If they aren't made public and the May-Boris deal is achieved as hoped- then any blame can be spread around.

For the Opposition they want them, again not really to see the actual 'cost' but to justify and drum up support for their voting down of the deal (and perhaps holding off on any GE a while longer). It also would make good ammunition come a second referendum- which is also why the Government are attempting to not have to publish them, as a second referendum as of now is a pretty big possibility now that amendments can be attached- it lacked 12 votes last time- we'll see what happens in the coming days.

[Daruwind]

Commons Speaker John Bercow prevents debate on the the Government's deal with the EU under the Withdrawl Agreement Bill.

Logical consequences of yesterday? There was perfectly fine opportunity yesterday...somebody walked away like child.

Just trying to say...Bercow is like constant trouble for goverment as of lately. I read yesterday people are expecting this conclusion. So naturally it is goverment fault because they could expect this result. It is simply poor HoC strategy from goverment side because they are lacking numbers, support.

[caratacus]

Logical consequences of yesterday? There was perfectly fine opportunity yesterday...somebody walked away like child.

Just trying to say...Bercow is like constant trouble for goverment as of lately. I read yesterday people are expecting this conclusion. So naturally it is goverment fault because they could expect this result. It is simply poor HoC strategy from goverment side because they are lacking numbers, support.

Johnson knew that Bercow would do this, it plays with “the people against parliament” line which he wants to cultivate to get backing for his deal with Brexit MPs and their electorate. It also would win support for him if it came to a GE. A deal which if you examine it closely, really isn't Brexit at all. Any fool could see that just like as with May's deal insufficient time was given to examine the details of the agreement before last Saturday and Monday isn't much better.

Bercow maybe right on this but I think everybody knows what his objective is. The UK has become trapped by its parliament, between accepting soft Brexit or a revokation of Article 50, an absolute stitch up.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Johnson knew that Bercow would do this, it plays with “the people against parliament” line which he wants to cultivate to get backing for his deal with Brexit MPs and their electorate. It also would win support for him if it came to a GE. A deal which if you examine it closely, really isn't Brexit at all. Any fool could see that just like as with May's deal insufficient time was given to examine the details of the agreement before last Saturday and Monday isn't much better.

Bercow maybe right on this but I think everybody knows what his objective is. The UK has become trapped by its parliament, between accepting soft Brexit or a revokation of Article 50, an absolute stitch up.

I'd say a very fair analysis of this current situation here. It's also just kicked something in my brain- Johnson attempting to speed through the May-Boris deal without any proper parliamentary scrutiny was also integral to him getting it his deal through.

The ERG have mainly (though its split iirc) have said they'll vote for his deal, but they don't like it. However if any amendments are attached to it they'll largely reconsider and probably downvote it. Johnson has just potentially lost then his 'knife edge' as without the roughly 28 'Spartans' there is no way to get his deal through, even with the handful of Labour rebels- all because amendments will now certainly be added (Unless the Government can do an incredible whipping operation- very unlikely). So i'd reconsider what i said earlier that the deal is likely to pass this week - i suspect if the ERG make good their word (and they usually do) the May-Boris deal is now dead in the water, unless he accepts some of the amendments to get opposition support- such as a customs Union or second ref or whatever else might present itself.

EDIT:

Well damn seems i was too generous to the Government in my previous post- apparently another more short-term reason for Boris trying to speedily get his deal agreed by Parliament by pushing it through without scrutiny is that he hoped to hide that for all intents and purposes N.Ireland will have a hard border between it and the rUK, something Barclay 'misinformed the Select Committee about- and has since set the record straight on):

The government is coming under fire this evening over confirmation by the Brexit Secretary, Stephen Barclay, that Northern Irish businesses will have to complete exit declarations when sending goods to Great Britain under the terms of the Brexit deal.As reported by Politico, Barclay was correcting an answer he gave minutes earlier to the House of Lords European Union committee, when he said he did not think such forms would be required under the deal.
He told peers: “We’ve said in terms of [trade] from NI to GB that it will be frictionless and so there wouldn’t be [declaration forms].”
The Labour Peer, Stewart Wood, was the committee member who pressed Barclay and has been making hay on Twitter and says that Barclay’s “revelation” confirms two things
“1. The GB-NI border inside the UK will, from a commercial point of view, feel like a real border.
2. The Govt is trying to push through a vote on the deal before the text of the Withdrawal Bill is seen for a reason: the contents are alarming.”
Nigel Farage, the Brexit Party leader, and the east Belfast DUP MP, Sammy Wilson, have both been weighing in:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sion-live-news

[caratacus]

I suspect if the ERG make good their word (and they usually do) the May-Boris deal is now dead in the water, unless he accepts some of the amendments to get opposition support- such as a customs Union or second ref or whatever else might present itself.

I note that the ERG haven't actually declared their support though have they? I think that it was said they reserve that until the time of voting. There is, as you say, the prospect now of a much watered down deal, even if it was approved this week.

EDIT:
Well damn seems i was too generous to the Government in my previous post- apparently another more short-term reason for Boris trying to speedily get his deal agreed by Parliament by pushing it through without scrutiny is that he hoped to hide that for all intents and purposes N.Ireland will have a hard border between it and the rUK, something Barclay 'misinformed the Select Committee about- and has since set the record straight on):

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/sta...sion-live-news

Despite asssurances to the Ulster Unionsts, it seems to me that the long term intention is to facilitate Irish unification after the Belfast Agreement. The province is without a functioning democracy. Today Stormont met after three years and after a brief meeting about the abortion law could not decide over proceedings, leaving a Westministr bill to take effect unopposed. The meeting broke up after an hour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50115449 How can you have this assembly be given the responsibility of deciding upon its relationship with the EU without involvement of London under direct rule.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I note that the ERG haven't actually declared their support though have they? I think that it was said they reserve that until the time of voting. There is, as you say, the prospect now of a much watered down deal, even if it was approved this week.

Good question. Ostensibly they are behind it (and certainly the media jumped on trying to tie them to it)...but each to varying degrees, and its indeed not a firm commitment to Boris, more just 'advice' with caveats.

Mr Bakerearlier tweeted: "ERG advice to MPs: 1. vote for Boris's deal in the national interest 2. support the legislation to completion in good faith, provided it is not spoiled by opponents of Brexit 3. vote with Boris throughout to give him maximum opportunity to deliver for our country."Mr Francois said: "The aim of Amendment A is clear. The emperor has no clothes. It is to stop us leaving the European Union at any cost.
"The ERG met this morning. And normally our meetings are private. But under the circumstances there are three things I thought I should share with the House.

"One, the officers overwhelmingly recommended backing the Prime Minister's deal. The ERG overwhelmingly recommended the same, and no member of the ERG spoke against it."Thirdly, and most importantly, we agreed that if you vote for the deal, you vote for the Bill. And if the deal is passed today, we will faithfully vote the Bill through to the end, so we can leave the European Union. You have our word."ERG member Bernard Jenkin earlier suggested he would get behind it - while voicing his reservations.
He said: “This deal is hundreds of miles from perfect. It has terrible elements, but we are where we are.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...twin-amendment

And each of course has their own caveats that some have been quite public about. However you are quite right to point out that essentially they hadn't exactly solidly committed to backing Boris's deal - something i note a lot of the media trying to calculate numbers sort of missed out- they all assumed the ERG were fully on board with Boris for now- in fact its indeed been far more up in the air, and the amendments plus with N.Ireland issue are likely to kill their support for the deal now totally i suspect, so aye we're going into amendment territory and with Boris essentially in May's exact position- reliant on opposition support to get a deal through- he could court the Lib-dems with a second ref, or get a cross-bench support if he goes for a Customs Union, but we are looking at closer alignment with the EU potentially.

What's interesting as well- a Second Referendum is in danger of not resolving anything regardless- a poll today by Opinium had it 42 Remain vs 42 Leave vs 16 don't know- prior to this while Polls have swung for Remain or leave, its not exactly by game changing numbers- 52 vs 48 for Remain from any second ref and we're still exactly where we are now with the Brexit party still weighing in on any snap GE and polarisis over how to get forward due to this (again 2010- lack of real majorities, 2015 only gave Cameron 12, so a small chunck of annoyed voters are essential political capital, let alone a large one as any referendum would create).

Despite asssurances to the Ulster Unionsts, it seems to me that the long term intention is to facilitate Irish unification after the Belfast Agreement. The province is without a functioning democracy. Today Stormont met after three years and after a brief meeting about the abortion law could not decide over proceedings, leaving a Westministr bill to take effect unopposed. The meeting broke up after an hour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50115449 How can you have this assembly be given the responsibility of deciding upon its relationship with the EU without involvement of London under direct rule.

Very interesting point, i hadn't been following that today. It surely indeed highlights that the chances of Stormont being ready and able to in 4 years time commit to the Boris-May deals consent obligation without fracturing apart (as today) is going to be a monumental task.

[Muizer]

Johnson knew that Bercow would do this, it plays with “the people against parliament” line which he wants to cultivate to get backing for his deal with Brexit MPs and their electorate. It also would win support for him if it came to a GE. A deal which if you examine it closely, really isn't Brexit at all. Any fool could see that just like as with May's deal insufficient time was given to examine the details of the agreement before last Saturday and Monday isn't much better.

Bercow maybe right on this but I think everybody knows what his objective is. The UK has become trapped by its parliament, between accepting soft Brexit or a revokation of Article 50, an absolute stitch up.

Hmm, the optics of the 'out of touch' parliament. Although I understand the exasperation, I do think that to qualify parliament as 'out of touch' is unfair. Considering the small margin in favour of leaving it is reasonable to assume it would never have materialised without the support of people who voted leave expecting an orderly exit. Anyone claiming people voted for a clean break is essentially saying they got the decisive few percent in the referendum by deception. A much more realistic outlook on 'the will of the people' then and now is that had they been able to express a more nuanced view than 'yes' or 'no', it would have lead to a similar stand-off to the one we see in Parliament. In that sense, Parliament is working fine. And the truth is, when things are close, the voice of people near the middle ground is decisive and that's what you can see in action now. If, eventually, some half baked Brexit deal makes it through, then that would be an outcome that does justice to the will of the people. It is worth noting though how big a factor in all this the referendum itself has become, when the price of honoring its outcome is a deal that hardly anybody seems to want.

[Daruwind]

Lot things happening but one catch my eyes:

Sinn Fein: united Ireland poll could happen in five years

Sinn Fein vice president Michelle O’Neill has suggested that a border poll on Irish unity is likely to happen within five years, due to Brexit upheaval, the Press Association reports.

O’Neill said polls show the necessity for debate and planning to begin on preparations for a border poll, and then beyond that to a united Ireland.
Sinn Fein have said they want a border poll on a United Ireland within five years, but O’Neill said Brexit could see it happening sooner.

Speaking in Dublin, she said the collapse of the Berlin wall and subsequent reunification of east and west Germany shows that major political events such as Brexit can speed events up.



Everything is moving in that direction. I believe it was moving there even before Brexit, but clearly Brexit has become a catalyst for it. What is important to note is the German example. I think with the Berlin wall, Germany was reunited within a year ... the fact that events overtook and the country was unified within a year.

[Elmetiacos]

So now the House of Commons was ready to back the deal, but Boris Johnson insisted they rush the legislation through in 3 days or he said he'd withdraw it... this bizarre zero sum game tactic has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, as MPs voted for the Bill but against the very short timetable.

Complete and utter madness.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

EDIT- Sorry from formatting- the first paragraph is from my post elsewhere..and then i added a load to it here . Also Elmetiacos beat me to it with a 'to the point' summary which is very accurate.

So essentially tonight's big Brexit vote ends in stalemate.

The May-Boris deal was passed with a rather larger than expected majority, but parliament by also a rather significant majority rejected the Governments mere 'two day' timetable (probably part of the extra support for the deal is due to this vote also being expected to pass) for analyzing a 100 page withdrawal agreement (Usually a few months work) for its pros and cons for the UK, and also due to the Government refusing to publish its economic impact assessments of this deal. The Government were really chancing it to expect MP's on any side to be happy with essentially voting blindly on Johnson's deal.

The Government due to this defeat has subsequently paused all further discussion of its deal. Boris has essentially decided to delay Brexit.

The Government's bill when it comes back will now no doubt be subjected to the amendments of Customs Union, Second Referendum etc that may see the ERG refuse to support it (Though may also gain the support of Opposition MP's)

What is certain is that it now is almost impossible for Britain to leave the EU on the 31st of October. Boris Johnson stated it is now up to the EU to offer us an extension (which he is legally obligated to accept), so we'll wait and see if the EU offers us one and then essentially we should expect a battle over the timetable.

The issue for the Government is the more Parliament scrutinize the Boris-May deal, the less likely their will be public support for it during a snap GE from the quarters that Boris was hopping to draw support from as it undermines completely the previous 'tough talk' from Boris (Hence Farage's attacks on the deal), so i don't expect them to roll over to Parliament's rejection of their quite frankly ridiculously short timetable, with the Government still refusing to bother to do any kind of impact analysis into their own deal for MP's to be informed when voting (again- the risk is that the economic impact assessments allow the Opposition to present the deal in a negative light to the public who want to leave, but 'well' and remainers, while the facts of the deal regarding EU rules on N.Ireland and a 'hard border' in the sea allow Farage and the Brexit party to attack the leave vote that Boris is trying to court with his tough language)- at a time when majorities are scarce and polling is knife-edged this could be bad).

Thus i suspect the Government will now try and come up with a way around this (hence why they've essentially put Brexit on hold- party political reasons triumph again).

EDIT: The Governments official reason for pausing is to 'allow the EU to make up its mind on an extension'- its complete bollocks of course, because there is absolutely nothing stopping the Government doing as intended in bringing its deal back in an hours time, or indeed tomorrow for further scrutiny and indeed for allowing at least 28 days (The number afforded to the ERG backbenches during the Mastriicht treaty singing to debate the merits of the treaty), or less but more than 7. Indeed its in the Governments gift if they wanted to pull all sorts of unorthodox things (like actually working Monday-Saturday) to facilitate the proper time for a reading if that is clearly all it takes to get the deal passed. Its clearly in a very painful way about the party-political angle for Boris.

[caratacus]

Nineteen Labour MPs rebelled against their party to vote for the PM's deal, whilst 19 former Conservatives who had their whips withdrawn, also supported the deal.

It essentially passed using the votes of Conservative Remainers and Labour MPs worried about their leave voting seats. Any subsequent vote is unlikely to be as supportive of the Government. I foresee a barrage of amendments approved by "Bollox to Brexit" Bercow watering down what is a soft Brexit deal and at some point introducing a second referendum confirmation vote.

Fact is this Parliament will not enable the UK to leave the EU, the extra time for scrutiny of the deal is a valid one, but the objective will not be to enable its implementation this year but to request an extension of several months using the Benn Bill.

[Muizer]

puzzling. If parliament voted for the Brexit legislation, exactly what remains to be done?

[caratacus]

"Following PM @BorisJohnson’s decision to pause the process of ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement, and in order to avoid a no-deal #Brexit, I will recommend the EU27 accept the UK request for an extension. For this I will propose a written procedure." Donald Tusk on Twitter

Wonder if the PM has any particular ditch in mind.

[Daruwind]

Question is, what is true goal for Boris...no deal probably not but who can say for sure. Winning GE is very probable goal. Maybe he really wait to see if the public will think he lost his tough guy play and is incapable or if people will see it like he almost did it..

[Muizer]

Ok, looked it up.Looks like voting 'yes' in second reading but 'no' on the timetable means "we're not rejecting it, but we're not sold on it yet either". After amendments a 3rd reading will have to pass both chambers, and Parliament does not want to be rushed.
Still, it's progress of a sort.

Some media make it seem as if Boris is obsessed about the 31 of october date. Sure he promised that, I don't really believe he'd be punished electorally for not making that self imposed deadline if it were just a matter of dotting i's and crossing t's; If he felt confident enough to say 'bar a few minor details we've done it'.

[Ludicus]

So, Boris Johnson has paused the progress of his Brexit deal through the House of Commons. Tusk says,

I will recommend the EU27 accept the UK request for an extension. For this I will propose a written procedure

Without comments

[Elmetiacos]

Some media make it seem as if Boris is obsessed about the 31 of october date. Sure he promised that, but it seems to me he's trying to leverage the 'will of the people' to make haste to avoid substantial changes to his deal. If it went through without significant amendments, I don't think he'd care greatly if it were at the end of october or in a few months time.

The government does seem obsessed by the date, they have fetishised it, repeated it endlessly, appearing to have forgotten how repeating "strong and stable government" didn't work at all for Theresa May. Paradoxically, Boris and the Brexiteers are what's keeping Britain in the EU: after the Conservatives lost their majority, they could have sat down with Labour and the SNP to compromise with a Norway type arrangement, but no, instead they forced May into a hard Brexit position... having done that, it wasn't hard enough, so they voted the deal down and forced her out and then when they finally looked to have got everything they wanted against the odds, they tried to push parliament too far and blew the whole thing again.

[Ludicus]

The government does seem obsessed by the date, they have fetishised it.

The secret to Boris's stubbornness...the Financial Times asks, Is Brexit a genuine return to genuine Britishness?

....I am not, of course, the first person to notice all this. Here’s George Orwell, in 1941: “The liberty of the individual is still believed in [in England] . . . the liberty to have a home of your own, to do what you like in your spare time, to choose your own amusements instead of having them chosen for you from above. The most hateful of all names in an English ear is Nosey Parker.” The antecedents go back much further than Orwell.
The global image of Britain in the 18th century — unruly, fearless and probably drunk — strikes me as closer to the current spirit of the place than the standard clichés of propriety and repression. The right caricature of the place is not Alistair Cooke’s refined diction or Dickens’s poor but virtuous Tiny Tim saying, “God bless us, every one.”

It is a Hogarth cartoon, or William Hazlitt’s 1816 description of John Bull (the portly English analogue to Uncle Sam) as a man who is “fond of having his own way, till you let him have it”.

"... the Brexit done".

[Greyblades]

The government does seem obsessed by the date, they have fetishised it, repeated it endlessly, appearing to have forgotten how repeating "strong and stable government" didn't work at all for Theresa May. Paradoxically, Boris and the Brexiteers are what's keeping Britain in the EU: after the Conservatives lost their majority, they could have sat down with Labour and the SNP to compromise with a Norway type arrangement, but no, instead they forced May into a hard Brexit position... having done that, it wasn't hard enough, so they voted the deal down and forced her out and then when they finally looked to have got everything they wanted against the odds, they tried to push parliament too far and blew the whole thing again.

...In what universe do you live where May had a too hard brexit positon? Did you read anything at all on the content of Chequers? Did you not see the complete uturn from "no deal is better than a bad deal" to asking for a extension because parliament wouldnt permit her complete disaster of a deal?