Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Elmetiacos]

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/br...son-erg-video/

We are now looking at a very early GE potentially, i.e. before brexit is done. The majority of 1 or2 (depending on when asked) and this statement essentially makes Boris in a worse position than May.

I would imagine Boris is going to be looking at the polls carefully to see if he can win enough extra seats in an election to steamroller opposition to No Deal. It would take significant gains for him to do it and if he was expecting help from Farage and his cronies, he's not going to get it thus far, they are on course to carry on splitting the Brexit vote and letting remainers in:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9021961.html
Call me cynical, but they realise that if they endorse Boris, they vanish and their MEPs instantly lose €6824 a month when Halloween comes... on the other hand, if this changes, neither does it look as if Labour, the Lib-Dems and Greens would come to any sort of arrangement to avoid splitting the Remain vote and letting Tories in: Labour will always stick to a doctrinaire position of contesting every single seat in order to win power, do or die. It would be left to the voters to vote tactically. Brexit Party supporters (and the few remaining UKIPers) could vote tactically too, but they are much less likely to think about it because they are much more of a protest voting tendency intending to damage the system rather than playing it.

[Daruwind]

Euronazi Officer Gunther Oettinger tries to blackmail Bojo like a typical godfather over ''due money''.
https://www.politico.eu/article/not-...-commissioner/
This is a guy known for things like ''the markets will teach the people that they shouldn't vote for populists''. If the UK leaves with no deal, it's thanks to idiots like this one. A German that never learns and a decades ago would have likely worked as a SS officer.

Um...Euronazi? Blackmail? Godfather? Due money? ..He is merely responding and warning Johnson because he is talking utopian things 1) Oettinger is EU budget Commissioner...who else si more competent to speak about money? 2) And he is saying exactly what EU was repeating many times. Even in case of no-deal, those loose ends, backstops, withdrawal agreement, divorce bill will return before ANY future trade agreements. UK cannot escape this...3) Whatever we think about brexit, those money were last year agreed by UK..so not only UK promised them long time ago, but also agreed with that last year... 3) tanked finacial credibility is natural result of not paying what you are supposed to..

And actually he is right. No-deal scenario would probably very soon wake up people from their Albion dream. Go read a few pages back what Danta wrote. No-deal is probably quickest way for UK back into EU..only this time without any special treatment and with alot pissed off countries around. UK diplomatic credibility already tanked in EU..

And once more. If no-deal happens, all responsibility lies only on UK itself. Sorry for that but Cameron started with that crappy idea, May were continuing a few years on Titanic course and now looks like Johnson will finally hit iceberg. Crying that world is not caretaking about UK and playing nice with UK is all you can do. Politics should know better that no negotiation is for free and that in weak positions all will prey on you..

EDIT: basil,can you stop throwing around such generalization like SS officer and nazis? Just because you call everything you dislike nazi it is not true. It is exactly this light foot generalization and quick judges that is wrong with current world.

[Basil II the B.S]

Um...Euronazi? Blackmail? Godfather? Due money? ..He is merely responding and warning Johnson because he is talking utopian things 1) Oettinger is EU budget Commissioner...who else si more competent to speak about money? 2) And he is saying exactly what EU was repeating many times. Even in case of no-deal, those loose ends, backstops, withdrawal agreement, divorce bill will return before ANY future trade agreements. UK cannot escape this...3) Whatever we think about brexit, those money were last year agreed by UK..so not only UK promised them long time ago, but also agreed with that last year... 3) tanked finacial credibility is natural result of not paying what you are supposed to..

The worst case scenario is WTO rules trade. It doesn't require a new agreement because noone is leaving the WTO. This also allows the UK not to pay a penny and leaves a major hole in EU finances, meaning that the EU will have to ask to net contributors (namely Ger/Fra/Ita/Netherlands) to fill it. Politically it's more complicated because the UK might break up.

And actually he is right. No-deal scenario would probably very soon wake up people from their Albion dream. Go read a few pages back what Danta wrote. No-deal is probably quickest way for UK back into EU..only this time without any special treatment and with alot pissed off countries around. UK diplomatic credibility already tanked in EU..

In a sense, if Remainers get a grip, they can rejoin the EU in 3-5 years. All they have to do is win an election with the distinct promise to rejoin. That would be democratic and acceptable. If the plan is to stop Brexit, then they are going to kill democracy with potential far worse consequences than they can imagine.

And once more. If no-deal happens, all responsibility lies only on UK itself. Sorry for that but Cameron started with that crappy idea, May were continuing a few years on Titanic course and now looks like Johnson will finally hit iceberg. Crying that world is not caretaking about UK and playing nice with UK is all you can do. Politics should know better that no negotiation is for free and that in weak positions all will prey on you..

I spoke to 20+ commodity traders in the last month, including head of departments, not a single one of them is worried about a no-deal Brexit. Tariffs are relevant in international trade only if they are significant, eg Trump's 25% on steel. The truth of the matter, nobody really knows what exactly will be the impact on the UK.

EDIT: basil,can you stop throwing around such generalization like SS officer and nazis? Just because you call everything you dislike nazi it is not true. It is exactly this light foot generalization and quick judges that is wrong with current world.

Oettinger has insulted Italian voters, apparently guilty of thought crime. He never apologized. He'll never be forgiven. So long that the EU will increasingly resemble a totalitarian institution, the comparison fits. Maybe when they stop insulting voters for being ''spoiled, unappreciative or misled by Russia'', I'll change my narrative.

[Daruwind]

The worst case scenario is WTO rules trade. It doesn't require a new agreement because noone is leaving the WTO. This also allows the UK not to pay a penny and leaves a major hole in EU finances, meaning that the EU will have to ask to net contributors (namely Ger/Fra/Ita/Netherlands) to fill it. Politically it's more complicated because the UK might break up.

I´m not trading expert but the opinion I mostly read was similar to :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...it-say-experts

Firstly, the UK must produce its own schedule covering both services and each of the 5,000-plus product lines covered in the WTO agreement and get it agreed by all the 163 WTO states in the 32 remaining parliamentary sitting days until 29 March 2019. A number of states have already raised objections to the UK’s draft schedule: 20 over goods and three over services.

To make it more complicated, there are no “default terms” Britain can crash out on, Howard said, while at the same time, the UK has been blocked by WTO members from simply relying on the EU’s “schedule” – its existing tariffs and tariff-free trade quotas.
The second hurdle is the sheer volume of domestic legislation that would need to be passed before being able to trade under WTO rules: there are nine statutes and 600 statutory instruments that would need to be adopted.
The government cannot simply cut and paste the 120,000 EU statutes into UK law and then make changes to them gradually, Howard said. “The UK will need to set up new enforcement bodies and transfer new powers to regulators to create our own domestic regimes,” she said.

So here goes your WTO rules...

In a sense, if Remainers get a grip, they can rejoin the EU in 3-5 years. All they have to do is win an election with the distinct promise to rejoin. That would be democratic and acceptable. If the plan is to stop Brexit, then they are going to kill democracy with potential far worse consequences than they can imagine.

I agree with you on this one. And if UK really wants to leave (like majority of people) I´m not stopping them. However all I try to say is to have first the debate and instead of leaving and joing after a few years, get majority for long term plan. That´s all.

I spoke to 20+ commodity traders in the last month, including head of departments, not a single one of them is worried about a no-deal Brexit. Tariffs are relevant in international trade only if they are significant, eg Trump's 25% on steel. The truth of the matter, nobody really knows what exactly will be the impact on the UK.

I´m not spoking about commodity trading but overall responsibility. IF anything goes sour, it will be upon UK fault...

Oettinger has insulted Italian voters, apparently guilty of thought crime. He never apologized. He'll never be forgiven. So long that the EU will increasingly resemble a totalitarian institution, the comparison fits. Maybe when they stop insulting voters for being ''spoiled, unappreciative or misled by Russia'', I'll change my narrative.

Haven´t heard about that. But I believe you. However because one politic says something stupid, that´s enough for you to beheave in similar crappy fashion? Just to point out, my great grand parents died in concentration camp..you know filthy slavs. And I dare to say that current Germany where I have many friends and many czech people are working is little different and definitely not nazi state. So their commissioner even with his statement is far from being nazi. Because i can easily imagine to find a few peopel who would call you nazi....see? Meaningless.

[caratacus]

I agree with you on this one. And if UK really wants to leave (like majority of people) I´m not stopping them. However all I try to say is to have first the debate and instead of leaving and joing after a few years, get majority for long term plan. That´s all.

I´m not spoking about commodity trading but overall responsibility. IF anything goes sour, it will be upon UK fault...

And the alternative would be, ie not leaving the EU? Probably the best person to ask would be the new Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
In the selection of this key Merkel ally, there seemingly was no other candidate.

Ursula von der Leyen: Merkel ally chosen for EU top job
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48841980
Ursula von der Leyen's name is unlikely to have cropped up in early conversations as European leaders wrangled over the best candidate to replace Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

A long-time close ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany's defence minister was not well-loved by its armed forces and her record was not without its failures.

And yet, she has emerged from the shadows, nominated by EU members states and backed by the European Parliament for the top job, after initial compromise deals collapsed.

The vision set out by the new president in her opening speech was very revealing;
The completion of a European army by 2025, That member states will have no veto on deciding foreign policy, That the a European minimum wage would be introduced and a European common social security strategy formulated. In short the continued progress towards a fully intergrated Europe.This is not what the UK wants.

[Muizer]

You know, on the surface I get the reservations about the further integration of the EU. I do find the timing to be a bit odd though. Consider that for decades the EU was mainly about economic integration and, since the fall of the Soviet union, expansion of the common market. In other words, a primarily economic union. Let's not forget that this kind of union is what has led to the disaffection with the EU. How is it that now the EU is finally owning up to the fact that the social aspect was neglected, certain forces in society start to agitate against loss of sovereignty and a need to take back control? In the case of Britain, how has this all lead to the takeover of your government by a group of people whose vision for Britain seems to be a no holds barred Victorian age style capitalism. Are the British such a masochistic people? I mean, if you're going to 'take back control' then how on earth do you put it into the hands of people who will try to screw you over 10 times harder than the EU ever would?

[caratacus]

You know, on the surface I get the reservations about the further integration of the EU. I do find the timing to be a bit odd though. Consider that for decades the EU was mainly about economic integration and, since the fall of the Soviet union, expansion of the common market. In other words, a primarily economic union. Let's not forget that this kind of union is what has led to the disaffection with the EU. How is it that now the EU is finally owning up to the fact that the social aspect was neglected, certain forces in society start to agitate against loss of sovereignty and a need to take back control? In the case of Britain, how has this all lead to the takeover of your government by a group of people whose vision for Britain seems to be a no holds barred Victorian age style capitalism. Are the British such a masochistic people? I mean, if you're going to 'take back control' then how on earth do you put it into the hands of people who will try to screw you over 10 times harder than the EU ever would?

All the established parties in Westminister advcate progressive liberalism. The Conservative party you are portraying doesn't exist. Its a Liberal elite who are predominatly pro-EU that run the show. There is little difference between all three of the main parties and hasn't been for years now. Because of this, I'm cynical that the UK will ultimately get anything but a watered down Brexit. All the changes being done with the Tories now could be seen as simply a major facelift, for the elctorate to abandon the possibility of turning to the Brexit party.

The Brexit party includes a diverse range of opinion on the political spectrum, unified by a single issue and voters could be swayed. But a party which is also growing in support is the Social Democratic Party. The SDP is centre Left, social market orientated, pro-nation state, in favour of capital redistribution and the concept of local community development, and because of this, very much against what the EU is turning into.

[Basil II the B.S]

I mentioned pages ago that I thought Corbyn's ship had sailed. Now we have evidence in favour.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Indeed, its not even necessarily Labour's still rather 'on the fence' brexit policy, but Corbyn is providing something of a bulwark now to Labour comfortably beating Boris. Now i get a GE campaign would lead to a rise again as last time, and Corbyn would perhaps likely be able to win a GE (though marginally i suspect in best case)- as a GE Labour tends to run a decentralized campaign concentrating on local issues with a broader national message of change (To avoid brexit). However, Boris for all his policy and 'in office' incompetence is always a very good campaigner. Its one of the reasons i suspect that Boris himself might be the one to call an early GE before Labour can consider replacing Corbyn.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9024116.html

Something a stretch too far, but amusing to consider is that May's parting 'advice' to Corbyn was to step-down himself as well and know when he's 'had his time'. Many took this (probably rightfully) as a last parting shot, but there is something to it, especially as May detests Boris. Labour's polices are still popular, particularly when looking beyond brexit (which is there achilles heel) and into the kind of country Britain wants, Boris for all his promises has appointed a team who are already going towards a Thatcherite interpretation of reform, the exact neoliberal (ish) policies that have proven so unpopular, dropping working rights, putting the 'increases' not on state budgets, but primarily on councils who cannot afford it (i.e. they will not happen), Labours issue is now just Corbyn. I say this as someone who admires the man for his campaigning but also despairs at his and Labours persistent terrible control of 'main stream media' narrative and inability to spin, i get too that this is due to a very hostile reaction to him, but there is a fact that this hostile reaction has successfully limited what appeal he might have had, and he has (politically speaking) too many skeletons in the closest that could be and indeed were used against him to varying effects (his opponents also made the mistake though of over-playing a lot and thus lessening the impact, however that's understandable when the Conservative Government has essentially been in terminal decline since 2016 on the domestic front, when your record in office sucks, attack the opposition).

The question being then- will Corbyn go prior to the now snap-ge that nearly everyone agrees will happen? Or will he stay and if so- will he be able to campaign his way out of it? Bori's domestic position is weak, so Labour can score points there, but Boris unlike May (as well as the timing of thing) will make any GE prior to the 31st about Brexit, and i'm not sure Labour will be able to (as they did last time) shift the rhetoric to domestic policy simply because brexit is now so close.

The saving grace of course for Corbyn in those circumstances are that the brexit party will still 'be a thing' and thus Labour will likely scrape in- but note it wouldn't be due to Corbyn, it will be in spite of him.

[Elmetiacos]

I told Labour supporters after 2017 not be so quick to clamour for a general election: the Conservatives can't possibly run as incompetent a campaign as they did 2 years ago. Again, Boris will be watching the polls and seeing if they suggest a big majority, or close enough that he can get there with a good campaign (he'd love that) before calling an election. However, his time is limited: we have a month of parliament on holiday when the impetus behind a new leader fades and then if it looks as if he's calling the election as a back door to prorogation, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means he can't call an election without a majority of MPs in favour.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

All things indeed to consider, also though i think this might be a crunch point for Boris-

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/br...lts-announced/

The Breacons by-election happening tomorrow, The Tory MP was convicted of fraud and a recall petition by his constituents resulted in his being kicked from office. The Tories are actually letting him stand again, which means there is no 'home' advantage. I actually can't quite fathom why politically they would. The constituency is a 52% leave seat, but it seems that the Lib-dems are on track to win it by a large margin: 43% to the Tories 28%.

Labour are considered not really to be in the running as the seat has never been a Labour one. I suspect the lib-dems with Jo Swinson are a credible threat to the Conservatives because with the Tories under Boris they can reach out to Conservative voters who are more on the 'left' side of the Conservative party. If this result comes true though, it might also highlight that brexit will not be the thing to dominate a GE, despite how close it is. The lib-dems its noted are fighting against 'no deal' during this by-election actively, but beyond that are more concentrating on the economy, local issues etc.

If the Conservatives lose this seat though as predicted, their majority will be down to 1 (finally have got that certified ). The implications of this are massive both in practical, but also morale terms. It will mean as @Elmetiacos mentions above, Boris will be looking for a GE asap, or will be forced into one.

While the Fixed term parliament act prevents the government from calling an election without Parliaments agreement, in practice any opposition party voting against the chance for a General election will be butchered politically and thrown into turmoil. The whole point is to seek power, Labour are committed under Corbyn to fighting a GE asap, so with simply them and the Tories alone its through (Tory rebels would likely support a GE attempt as if Boris fails, it'll mean his ousting, Conservative leaders rarely survive failed GE attempts- May was saved by the fact that she was still able at least to form a government). The only one's i imagine not wanting this are whatever is left of Change UK, but they are now essentially dead regardless.

[Basil II the B.S]

Indeed, its not even necessarily Labour's still rather 'on the fence' brexit policy, but Corbyn is providing something of a bulwark now to Labour comfortably beating Boris. Now i get a GE campaign would lead to a rise again as last time, and Corbyn would perhaps likely be able to win a GE (though marginally i suspect in best case)- as a GE Labour tends to run a decentralized campaign concentrating on local issues with a broader national message of change (To avoid brexit). However, Boris for all his policy and 'in office' incompetence is always a very good campaigner. Its one of the reasons i suspect that Boris himself might be the one to call an early GE before Labour can consider replacing Corbyn.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9024116.html

Something a stretch too far, but amusing to consider is that May's parting 'advice' to Corbyn was to step-down himself as well and know when he's 'had his time'. Many took this (probably rightfully) as a last parting shot, but there is something to it, especially as May detests Boris. Labour's polices are still popular, particularly when looking beyond brexit (which is there achilles heel) and into the kind of country Britain wants, Boris for all his promises has appointed a team who are already going towards a Thatcherite interpretation of reform, the exact neoliberal (ish) policies that have proven so unpopular, dropping working rights, putting the 'increases' not on state budgets, but primarily on councils who cannot afford it (i.e. they will not happen), Labours issue is now just Corbyn. I say this as someone who admires the man for his campaigning but also despairs at his and Labours persistent terrible control of 'main stream media' narrative and inability to spin, i get too that this is due to a very hostile reaction to him, but there is a fact that this hostile reaction has successfully limited what appeal he might have had, and he has (politically speaking) too many skeletons in the closest that could be and indeed were used against him to varying effects (his opponents also made the mistake though of over-playing a lot and thus lessening the impact, however that's understandable when the Conservative Government has essentially been in terminal decline since 2016 on the domestic front, when your record in office sucks, attack the opposition).

The question being then- will Corbyn go prior to the now snap-ge that nearly everyone agrees will happen? Or will he stay and if so- will he be able to campaign his way out of it? Bori's domestic position is weak, so Labour can score points there, but Boris unlike May (as well as the timing of thing) will make any GE prior to the 31st about Brexit, and i'm not sure Labour will be able to (as they did last time) shift the rhetoric to domestic policy simply because brexit is now so close.

The saving grace of course for Corbyn in those circumstances are that the brexit party will still 'be a thing' and thus Labour will likely scrape in- but note it wouldn't be due to Corbyn, it will be in spite of him.

The thing is, and I'll give you the polls when I have more time, Corbyn economic platform is hugely popular, except in the upper echelons of society.
So he's kind of stuck with the wrong electorate for that kind of policy, while the most interested in his economic platform is becoming a die hard Leaver.

There are also 3 factors: the Remain vote is split among Lib-Dem, Labour and Greens primarily. Let's even say that Greens get squeezed in the GE. Lib-Dems however are competitive. They can go all out on a full-Remain platform and I can guarantee a GE this year would be all about that.

Conservatives have two issues: Farage is hammer on any concession on Brexit and is even more dangerous for BoJo than Lib Dems are for Corbyn. The real question is: who is going to cost the election for whom. The other issue the unpopular economic platform. There isn't much appetite for ''Global Britain'' outside the already mentioned upper echelons.

I have actually been invited to London for a couple of weeks because bankers are going ''reeeeeeeeeeeee'' over the possibility of no-deal Brexit, there's a ton of frustration over lack of clarity and my briefings make sense. Ahahah.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

The thing is, and I'll give you the polls when I have more time, Corbyn economic platform is hugely popular, except in the upper echelons of society.
So he's kind of stuck with the wrong electorate for that kind of policy, while the most interested in his economic platform is becoming a die hard Leaver.

There are also 3 factors: the Remain vote is split among Lib-Dem, Labour and Greens primarily. Let's even say that Greens get squeezed in the GE. Lib-Dems however are competitive. They can go all out on a full-Remain platform and I can guarantee a GE this year would be all about that.

Conservatives have two issues: Farage is hammer on any concession on Brexit and is even more dangerous for BoJo than Lib Dems are for Corbyn. The real question is: who is going to cost the election for whom. The other issue the unpopular economic platform. There isn't much appetite for ''Global Britain'' outside the already mentioned upper echelons.

I have actually been invited to London for a couple of weeks because bankers are going ''reeeeeeeeeeeee'' over the possibility of no-deal Brexit, there's a ton of frustration over lack of clarity and my briefings make sense. Ahahah.

Fear not, i well believe you, If its the polls i'm thinking of i used them a few pages ago to highlight that Labours current policy platform is wildly popular, but the issue is literally the man himself in terms of being able to now to 'reach over' to the electoral groups he needs to win. The targeted campaign against him by his opponents, while being overdone, rather crass and losing its momentum (as seen by the essentially 0 impact the anti-semitism stuff is having now on Labour polling), has done the job of exploiting the 'weak points' and skeletons of Corbyns political career that has somewhat stuck.

I agree with the analysis there, it'll be interest to see just how it works out, what's making things more complicated, is that i suspect the Lib-dems might likely be once more in a 'king-maker' position (simply because they'll have an easier time translating support into seats than the Brexit party) after a near-term GE. But Boris and Corbyn are both equally distant from the Lib-dems under Jo Swinson, not to mention i honestly don't think Corbyn could come out fully for Remain (Both personal conviction, but also the need to keep safe the Northern strongholds, whose supermajorities are potentially looking less super), nor of course could Boris do anything of the sort due to his 'do or die' platform. So i'm not sure where that will leave is.

Haha well full kudos to you mate, teach them well, and if you can drop (though i know that's a busy time) a note or something about what your talking about and their reactions, please do i'd be really interested to hear what you say and find.

[Daruwind]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...exit-live-news

So it looks like more troubles are brewing not just in Scotland....

-Boris Johnson has wrapped up a morning of talks with the five main parties in Northern Ireland having heard multiple warnings from them about how damaging a no deal Brexit would be (see 11.06am, 11.16am, and 12.10pm). It was his first visit to Northern Ireland as prime minister, and his first proper engagement with the parties, but there was no sign that he had made any progress towards getting Sinn Fein and the DUP to agree to the resumption of power-sharing.

-It would be “unthinkable” if a no-deal Brexit was not followed by a poll on Irish reunification, the leader of Sinn Féin has warned Boris Johnson, also telling the prime minister that no one believed he was impartial on Northern Ireland.
-Any future US-UK trade deal would almost certainly be blocked by the US Congress if Brexit affects the Irish border and jeopardises peace in Northern Ireland, congressional leaders and diplomats have warned.
-Labour’s Emily Thornberry has said the party would be “off our bloody rockers” not to seize the chance to remain in the EU via a second referendum, in an interview which put her at odds with comments from Jeremy Corbyn over the weekend.

-Boris Johnson has sent his most senior EU adviser and Brexit negotiator to Brussels to deliver in person his message that the UK will leave without a deal unless the bloc abolishes the Irish backstop. As Daniel Boffey reports, David Frost, a former British ambassador to Denmark who was also an adviser to Johnson when he was foreign secretary, is to hold talks with EU officials over the next 48 hours.

-Labour has written to the elections watchdog urging pre-emptive action to ensure a US-based pro-Brexit lobbying group, co-run by Nigel Farage, does not risk “dark money” from overseas subverting the UK electoral system.

[Basil II the B.S]

Fear not, i well believe you, If its the polls i'm thinking of i used them a few pages ago to highlight that Labours current policy platform is wildly popular, but the issue is literally the man himself in terms of being able to now to 'reach over' to the electoral groups he needs to win. The targeted campaign against him by his opponents, while being overdone, rather crass and losing its momentum (as seen by the essentially 0 impact the anti-semitism stuff is having now on Labour polling), has done the job of exploiting the 'weak points' and skeletons of Corbyns political career that has somewhat stuck.

Yeah exactly. The thing is, his economic platform is popular... with Leave voters. But if you recall a few pages back I showed that at this point Leave voters are willing to sacrify the economy, Scotland and Northern Ireland so long that the UK leaves the EU and that's where I think Corbyn is shut down. So long that the discourse is about Brexit, everything else is secondary which is why BoJo must fear Farage and Corbyn must fear Lib Dems.

I agree with the analysis there, it'll be interest to see just how it works out, what's making things more complicated, is that i suspect the Lib-dems might likely be once more in a 'king-maker' position (simply because they'll have an easier time translating support into seats than the Brexit party) after a near-term GE. But Boris and Corbyn are both equally distant from the Lib-dems under Jo Swinson, not to mention i honestly don't think Corbyn could come out fully for Remain (Both personal conviction, but also the need to keep safe the Northern strongholds, whose supermajorities are potentially looking less super), nor of course could Boris do anything of the sort due to his 'do or die' platform. So i'm not sure where that will leave is.

Haha well full kudos to you mate, teach them well, and if you can drop (though i know that's a busy time) a note or something about what your talking about and their reactions, please do i'd be really interested to hear what you say and find.

I don't know the schedule so far but they have been sweating their expensive shirts because they don't know which button they want to push: no deal Brexit or Corbynomics. It's increasingly likely that it'll be one or the other.

[Elmetiacos]

I'd add the caveat that specifically Conservative Brexiteers are the ones willing to do all that, not everyone who voted leave.

Re the Greens, polling seems to show the Greens down since the Conservative leadership election (Opinium for The Guardian) presumably as remainers increasingly see tactical voting as necessary. In a hypothetical pact, the Liberal Democrats can't do much to help the Greens, whose main target seat would be Glasgow Kelvin, but a pact there would achieve nothing for the Remain cause as it would only unseat the SNP. This is the only constituency where they finished second; their next target would be Isle of Wight, where if polling is as in 2017, even all the Lib Dem votes added to the Green votes would still mean they finished 3rd behind Labour. With the rest, we're in lost deposit territory. Of the top 10 Lib Dem target seats, one is SNP and another Plaid Cymru, so putting them aside, the Greens didn't even stand in Richmond, St Ives, Cheadle or Lewes, but they could help in Cheltenham, Devon North, St Albans and in the Labour marginals of Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West - both constituencies full of students.

The problem for Boris trying to call an election is twofold. The first problem is that the pesky Brexit Party won't go away quite as much as one might haved hoped, still staying in the 10-15% range in polls. Once again, my cynical analysis is that Nigel's gang won't step aside because they are basically in it for the money: Brexit on 31st October and they lose their salaries as MEPs after only 5 months on the EU gravy train they will all tell you they hate so much... therefore, what they need to be angling for is an electoral pact with the Conservatives which would mean they can swap their seats in Strasbourg for seats in Westminster and be on a new gravy train (albeit one with slightly less plush seating and not as nice a buffet) for 5 more years. This pact would be a huge task for Boris Johnson's people to sell to the Conservative Party, partly from just the shame of having to admit they can't win on their own and partly because it means activists in constituencies setting their own people aside in favour of what is so far a real rag-tag of candidates (Claire Fox and Anne Widdecombe on the same slate goes beyond "broad church" and into the realms of WTF??!!) and it could just push the Labour Party into swallowing their own long established pride and entering into a pact on the other side. The second problem is the news. Boris shouts huzzah and tries to create a positive and energetic mood music, but it's impossible while at the same time various groups from Welsh farmers to Vauxhall Motors to the CBI keep popping up to remind us how horrible a no deal Brexit would be, so we're back to echo chamber politics again.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Fair analysis Elmetiacos, and i largely agree Basil so not much to add to you both.

In sort of keeping with what we've been discussing recently, this is happening now, the Lib-dems might also prove a headache for Boris in parliamentary terms at least .

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9030576.html

https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-p...ction-11774237

With the by-election tonight likely to be a Lib-dem gain from the Tories, there are now 6 Tory MP's in talks with the lib-dems about defecting to them. This will bring down the Government if followed through, who even with the DUP will be down up to 7 MP's . The big questions are if these Tories will split, and also what it means for the 50 or so 'remain-wishing' 'One nation' faction (Hammond, Greives etc) within the Tory party who have yet to make any moves. It seems as i think everyone predicted, the UK's constitutional crisis began as a Tory party internal dispute exploded, and it may be finish one way or the other due to that same internal battle.

[Basil II the B.S]

Factors to consider:
-relatively low turnout (that's normal for this kind of things)
-Lib Dems were competitive here before.
-Lib Dems squeezed Labour of at least 10 pts
-Brexit Party costed Davies the seat

Conclusion:
Lib Dems can be competitive nation wide if they manage to squeeze Labour further, BoJo is hostage of Farage.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Spot on analysis i'd say. Combine this with the fact an early GE is almost assured now (Commentators are saying 'from this result', but i'd argue even when the Tories had a majority of two it was still pretty likely) and we've got a very interesting landscape politically for the next Parliament. I think also to indulge in the longer term, the next GE will also re-create clamour for reform to the voting system on a PR basis, simply i think because you'll end up with a greatly expanded lib-dems, but the Brexit party will struggle to turn their support into seats/not as many seats as the Lib-dems nationwide.

[caratacus]

Looks like the Brexit party cost the Tories the seat in Brecon and Radnorshire. Farage should not have contested this seat. The standing MP has been a Brexiteer for many years and the only reason they put up a candidate against him, was that he had voted for May's deal. However, by doing so they split the Leave voters.

This is a small rural constituency with the total vote numbers reflecting that, but does provide a good indicator of what may happen to a great many similar seats in which the Tories have the LibDems as a competitor rather than Labour. Early analysis had the Brexit party at 35% of the vote and the LibDems in second place at 25%, so its easy to understand why Farage thought he was in with a chance here. Boris Johnson needs to do a deal with the Brexit party before an election, or despite Corbyn's weakness, he might be given the opportunity to form a inority government with the LibDems.