Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #2801

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    You forget the remaining 10% result from trade deals with third parties via the EU. No EU no deals with rest of the world. Britian is unlikely to arrange decent deals with third countries within months let alone days of day one no deal. People will notice from D1ND plus 10 onwards , if not before, how shafted they are.
    The United Kingdom has already arranged continuity and mutual recognition agreements with a wide variety of countries and economic blocs which it is trading with via the European Union. In most cases trading arrangements with non-EU countries will simply be rolled over and it will be possible for the government to pursue its own FTA's with large trading partners which are currently subject to EU duties (such as the US and Canada). So as I said, in the case of a clean break exit there would probably be some disruption and limited availability in the near term, but there is no reason to suspect that this would cause malnutrition or destructive price rises. And of course any concerns about EU tariffs would be immediately rectified if an independent FTA with the European Union could be reached (which would be exceptionally easy were it not for the ridiculous brinkmanship currently on show).

  2. #2802

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    It is the will of some people, many of whom are barely informed or deceived by charlatans. Shouting 'WILLADAPEEPUL' doesn't cut it. We are not the Peeeepulz Republic of China , or someover country taken over by commie peasant militia. Parliament is sovereign and it voted to reject no deal Brexit.


    Sometimes I wonder if such posts are "genuinely Bremain" or are somehow designed to ridicule the Bremain position, promoting Brexit.
    So, the voting body of the UK, the electorate, the people, the power from which all powers stem, is now reduced to some "commie peasant militia"?
    As for "barely informed", that's what I call being a sore loser (I am referring to the Bremain side). For the love of God, they had ALL THE TIME in the world (air time) to make their points. It's nobody's fault if they just wasted all that time in Godzilla appearing and demolishing The Big Ben while eating people in the streets in the case of a Brexit. The point is that the Bremain side had actually no working arguments to make their point. And in fact, the people of the UK well VERY WELL INFORMED. How? Well, by actually LIVING UNDER THE EU for DECADES, and reaping all the "benefits" from that . And guess what, they believe IT SUCKED. Their lives changed for the worse, and they decided to put an end to it.
    You can't dominate the UK political scene for decades, implementing EU policy after EU policy unchallenged and then say that "the people were not informed". The people felt the pro-EU arguments on their skin.

  3. #2803
    Settra's Avatar the Imperishable
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    When the 59% of the people who voted for brexit google hwat is the Eu and what iws Brexit after the fact you can be damn sure that they are reducing themselves, though their own ignorance, to a sheeple militia.
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  4. #2804

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    When the 59% of the people who voted for brexit google hwat is the Eu and what iws Brexit after the fact you can be damn sure that they are reducing themselves, though their own ignorance, to a sheeple militia.
    I'm going to assume that you have no evidence for this claim.

  5. #2805
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Ioannis, go back through the thread and you will find polls going back to the 70s that until right before the referendum people in the UK considered the membership of the EU a non-issue. If it sucked that badly, I'm sure they'd have woken up to that fact earlier. I think people voted leave thought it an opportunity to get rid of a few things they did not like. I really do not think people (whether they voted leave or remain) can truely comprehend what the impact of even a few weeks across the board economic disruption will mean. How is un-plugging the economy from foreign trade going to work out? The 'default' scenario should be mayhem unless extensive measures are taken. The default is certainly not "things will magically pretty much stay the same". For a suitable analogy, think back to what happened when the garbage collection stopped for a few days. Something everyone takes for granted, but boy when that stops things turn bad fast.
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  6. #2806

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    Ioannis, go back through the thread and you will find polls going back to the 70s that until right before the referendum people in the UK considered the membership of the EU a non-issue. If it sucked that badly, I'm sure they'd have woken up to that fact earlier. I think people voted leave thought it an opportunity to get rid of a few things they did not like. I really do not think people (whether they voted leave or remain) can truely comprehend what the impact of even a few weeks across the board economic disruption will mean. How is un-plugging the economy from foreign trade going to work out? The 'default' scenario should be mayhem unless extensive measures are taken. The default is certainly not "things will magically pretty much stay the same". For a suitable analogy, think back to what happened when the garbage collection stopped for a few days. Something everyone takes for granted, but boy when that stops things turn bad fast.
    Leaving the European Union doesn't "un-plug the economy from foreign trade".

  7. #2807

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    The United Kingdom has already arranged continuity and mutual recognition agreements with a wide variety of countries and economic blocs which it is trading with via the European Union. In most cases trading arrangements with non-EU countries will simply be rolled over and it will be possible for the government to pursue its own FTA's with large trading partners which are currently subject to EU duties (such as the US and Canada). So as I said, in the case of a clean break exit there would probably be some disruption and limited availability in the near term, but there is no reason to suspect that this would cause malnutrition or destructive price rises. And of course any concerns about EU tariffs would be immediately rectified if an independent FTA with the European Union could be reached (which would be exceptionally easy were it not for the ridiculous brinkmanship currently on show).
    Operation Yellowhammer already points old that there will be disruption in the the short term. It would take months or years for the UK to get it's trading affairs sorted and it will in the meantime lose a chunk of its GDP. The state of the UK after almost ten years of austerity and brexit falsehoods ( they were promised an easy deal and bundles of free money) is such that I doubt if the British public would tolerate it.

    Quote Originally Posted by ioannis76 View Post

    Sometimes I wonder if such posts are "genuinely Bremain" or are somehow designed to ridicule the Bremain position, promoting Brexit.
    .
    No, it's to point out your ignorance of the UK's constitutional arrangements.
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  8. #2808

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by mongrel View Post
    Operation Yellowhammer already points old that there will be disruption in the the short term.
    Yellowhammer attempts to predict "worst case scenario" outcomes on the basis of 20 assumptions. It is not a general forecast.

    It would take months or years for the UK to get it's trading affairs sorted and it will in the meantime lose a chunk of its GDP.
    This could be true but it also might not be. The single most relevant variable (in my opinion) is whether or not parliament is resolved in its desire to see a successful exit: if it insists on undermining the UK's negotiating ability in the hopes of sabotaging the viability of the departure (with the extended interest of rallying public support against separation) then the economy will suffer.

    The state of the UK after almost ten years of austerity and brexit falsehoods ( they were promised an easy deal and bundles of free money) is such that I doubt if the British public would tolerate it.
    The only reason why organizing new arrangements with the European Union hasn't been easy is because the Commons is divided against itself. The mistake that Fox, Gove and others made was in assuming that negotiations would be carried out by a united government commanding a comfortable parliamentary majority.
    Last edited by ep1c_fail; September 18, 2019 at 02:32 AM.

  9. #2809
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    Yellowhammer attempts to predict "worst case scenario" outcomes on the basis of 20 assumptions. It is not a general forecast.
    Actually it was originally labeled as "base scenario"...the real worst case is not public..

    This could be true but it also might not be. The single most relevant variable (in my opinion) is whether or not parliament is resolved in its desire to see a successful exit: if it insists on undermining the UK's negotiating ability in the hopes of sabotaging the viability of the departure (with the extended interest of rallying public support against separation) then the economy will suffer.
    Simply nope. One reason why UK has so far got so a few trade arrangements is that majority of countries are waiting for brexit. They smell weakness. How often top 10 world economy got into such deep problems? There is a lot to gain and lot to loose for UK..

  10. #2810

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Actually it was originally labeled as "base scenario"...the real worst case is not public..
    Prove it.

    Simply nope. One reason why UK has so far got so a few trade arrangements is that majority of countries are waiting for brexit. They smell weakness. How often top 10 world economy got into such deep problems? There is a lot to gain and lot to loose for UK..
    The usual desperate drivel.

  11. #2811
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    Prove it.
    Kirsten Cambell, her original leaked document if you need more, google it.
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



    goverment publish very same document with just minor changes. For example point 15 was blackened.
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



    Now I´m no native speaker but "base" =/= "worst" right?There should be another document "black swan" which is supposed to be the actual worst case scenario ( https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/oper...-yellowhammer/ )

    The usual desperate drivel.
    Do you have any proove that such situation won´t happen? Oh right, you cannot...
    Last edited by Daruwind; September 18, 2019 at 03:31 AM.

  12. #2812

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Kirsten Cambell
    her original document

    goverment publish very same document with just minor changes. For example point 15 was blackened.

    Now I´m no native speaker but "base" =/= "worst" right?
    I'm asking for proof that there is a "real" worst case scenario document, not that Yellowhammer was original called "base scenario" (a perfectly reasonably title for a document which assumes no contingency planning).
    Do you have any proove that such situation won´t happen? Oh right, you cannot...
    Asking me to prove a negative. Cool logical fallacy.

  13. #2813
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    I'm asking for proof that there is a "real" worst case scenario document, not that Yellowhammer was original called "base scenario" (a perfectly reasonably title for a document which assumes no contingency planning).
    Asking me to get secret goverment document, which is goverment afraid to publish? If I could probably every newspaper would offer me like million dollars

    Asking me to prove a negative. Cool logical fallacy.
    Actually yes. Give us one reason why anybody should not use UK´s weakness. Saying the trade is mutual benefit is not enough. What is preventing the others from getting advantage? It would be just little more beneficial to them and there is no logical reason why they should not use it.

  14. #2814

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Asking me to get secret goverment document, which is goverment afraid to publish? If I could probably every newspaper would offer me like million dollars
    So you have no proof? Thought not.

    Actually yes. Give us one reason why anybody should not use UK´s weakness. Saying the trade is mutual benefit is not enough. What is preventing the others from getting advantage? It would be just little more beneficial to them and there is no logical reason why they should not use it.
    There is no "weakness"; the fundamental economy (that is the structure) of the British economy is strong and will remain so outside of the European Union. Your ridiculous insinuation that the United Kingdom is a dying beast being circled by vultures is nothing more than an eschatological fantasy designed to justify your ideological disagreement with Brexit. It's boring. Either argue on the basis of the facts or don't waste my time.
    Last edited by ep1c_fail; September 18, 2019 at 04:09 AM.

  15. #2815
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    So you have no proof? Thought not.
    Why was document renamed? Base is again not worst. Occam´s razor. It is simple logic. If it was trully worst case scenario, it would be branded that way from very beginning. Alternation is suspicious.

    There is no "weakness"; the fundamental economy (that is the structure) of the British economy is strong and will remain so outside of the European Union. You ridiculous insinuation that the United Kingdom is a dying beast being circled by vultures is nothing more than an eschatological fantasy designed to justify your ideological disagreement with Brexit. It's boring. Either argue on the basis of the facts or don't waste my time.
    Then you are blind to opportunity. Hopefully other states will be too right?

  16. #2816

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Why was document renamed? Base is again not worst. Occam´s razor. It is simple logic. If it was trully worst case scenario, it would be branded that way from very beginning. Alternation is suspicious.
    1. I asked for proof of an alleged document outlining the "real" worst case scenario. You are yet to provide it.
    2. A base scenario is not mutually exclusive with a worst case scenario. A hypothetical which assumes no-deal with zero contingency is simultaneously a base scenario and a worst case scenario.
    Then you are blind to opportunity. Hopefully other states will be too right?
    There are opportunities for all parities; to frame those opportunities as British "weakness" is the usual disingenuous drivel.

  17. #2817

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I've finally seen the document, having been wondering why it was "worst case" planning. I have been curious as to what variables are in play which cause the scenario to be described as "worst case" rather than "likeliest case" or "reasonable assumption" and there are basically none. To me "worst case" would be everything in Yellowhammer and then for example, there happens to be an air traffic controllers' strike, or a major terrorist incident or something like that, happening at the same time. That's what "wost case" means to me, something horrible which is unlikely but possible being factored in. Everything which is in the document is simply the most probable scenario. All talk of "worst case" is the government lying again, as it was caught doing when the document was leaked initially.
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  18. #2818
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by ep1c_fail View Post
    The United Kingdom has already arranged continuity and mutual recognition agreements with a wide variety of countries and economic blocs which it is trading with via the European Union. In most cases trading arrangements with non-EU countries will simply be rolled over and it will be possible for the government to pursue its own FTA's with large trading partners which are currently subject to EU duties (such as the US and Canada). So as I said, in the case of a clean break exit there would probably be some disruption and limited availability in the near term, but there is no reason to suspect that this would cause malnutrition or destructive price rises. And of course any concerns about EU tariffs would be immediately rectified if an independent FTA with the European Union could be reached (which would be exceptionally easy were it not for the ridiculous brinkmanship currently on show).
    Dante has already detailed explained in various posts, that the UK won't be able to remake this trade deals in a short time because of insufficient department of foreign affairs and WTO rules.

    Still you are claiming without any real new arguments for your position the opposite.
    Last edited by Carmen Sylva; September 18, 2019 at 06:45 AM.
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  19. #2819
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Canada rejected trade agreement

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...-brexit-latest

    Japan seeking big concessions from UK , better terms...

    https://www.ft.com/content/5ce60af2-...b-ff8ef2b976c7
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...alks-eu-brexit

    ...

    It is not just about having not enough competent people, it is about opportunity. Everyone is making popcorn and waiting. Why making deals now when you can get a way better in short time..
    Last edited by Daruwind; September 18, 2019 at 06:43 AM.

  20. #2820

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen Sylva View Post
    Dante has already detailed explained in various posts, that the UK won't be able to remake this trade deals in a short time because of insufficient department of foreign affairs and WTO rules.

    Still you are claiming without any real new arguments for your position the opposite.
    Rolling over trade deals isn't remaking them. You don't know what you're talking about - again.

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