Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[QuintusSertorius]

What exactly do you think all these mysterious levers are that Boris has in his virtual political signal box?

Refusing to resign after a VONC, and waiting for the inevitable court case to time out the 14 days to form an alternative government, as just one example.

How are the ploys "unconstituitional"? Prorogation has been off the agenda since the passage of the Benn-Burt amendment last month.

Cooper-Letwin was rammed through in two days. It would have been a single day, if the Conservatives in the Lords hadn't prevented them from doing so. That is a dangerous precedent at odds with the way things have been done for a very long time.

Food for thought,
Nicole Sturgeon,


By the time of the 2016 referendum, every single council area in Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Overall, 62% of Scots favored continued EU membership; 55,8% of the Northern Ireland favored the EU membership. Link

We voted in 2016 as the UK, not as constituent nations. Scotland has already had a "once in a lifetime" referendum on their membership of the UK.

Spain would block any attempt to do anything like that, because of their own separatist problems.

Precisely, Sturgeon's rather bold assumption that a newly-independent Scotland could skip the normal accession process ignores the veto Spain at the very least would use.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Refusing to resign after a VONC, and waiting for the inevitable court case to time out the 14 days to form an alternative government, as just one example.



Cooper-Letwin was rammed through in two days. It would have been a single day, if the Conservatives in the Lords hadn't prevented them from doing so. That is a dangerous precedent at odds with the way things have been done for a very long time.

Just as a point here, i think the issue is indeed that the UK's unwritten constitution has been thoroughly shredded by both sides. Letwin set a dangerous precedent of backbenchers taking control of government busijness, and Boris is about to potentially set one too by refusing to resign after a VONC- which is approaching the dictatorial in regards to how the UK political system currently functions. Moreover he's even considering running rough-shod over Civil Service neutrality in any early GE to continue to implement policy that is disputed by other parties. We're effectively seeing the end of the Westminster system based on convention, i wouldn't be surprised if after this mess there are calls for a legal constitution that is recorded, as the unwritten one has proved entirely inadequate. Imagine for instance if Corbyn wins a GE, is successfully VONC'd down the line, but refuses to step down, aided and abetted by Boris doing exactly the same previously. We're in the ultimate in 'short-term' political thinking in ways that will be damaging for the state (pending any actual constitutional reform) in a post-brexit context- this is of course on top of May already having hugely undermined the political constitution- by weighting key committees, despite not being a majority government on her own steam, of allowing the use of archaic powers to 'streamline' parliamentary scrutiny (again Labout with those precedents will be interesting) of bills and the use of secondary legislation (which has far less scrutiny and is typically for unimportant edits) to sneak through primary legislation.

We voted in 2016 as the UK, not as constituent nations. Scotland has already had a "once in a lifetime" referendum on their membership of the UK.

The issue here is that this is a 'wish' position, as a Unionist i agree, but in practical terms that line of argument has very little value politically currently. The terms indeed were subject to material change advocated by the SNP and then ensured during the landslide in the Scottish Parliament, so the counter-bases is equally valid and with a mandate of its own. Moreover the Union is pending fundamental reform, in decline regardless of brexit, Scottish independence has consistently gathered pace, its merely been galvanized by brexit to seize the chance to score some further points in how different the political cultures are between the two nations, but a 'no-deal' Westminster government would find it very difficult to deal with a Scotland if this frankly unprecedented surge continues (it might not), deny a referendum if there is consistent polling for independence is an international and domestic nightmare that a post-brexit UK does not need, likewise though brexit has undermined the Unions case we used last time- i.e. that Scotland should remain in the UK due to economics and EU membership- both arguments which brexit has overridden (indeed vote leave i'd argue borrowed heavily from the Vote Yes tactics during the Scottish referendum, appealing to pride, positive nationalism and emotion).

The reason of course that we on the Union side did not make any positive case for the Union in equally emotive terms is that there is a 'crisis' in Britishness, even back them that is widely recognized of what is the UK's 'point' as a Union. Historical justifications no longer apply, and the positives are essentially economic, thus its a very limited case. I'm not looking forward to what i think is now potentially an inevitable 2nd Scottish Indy ref sometime in the next few years where the case for the Union will be essentially- well, nothing. 'Global Britain' going it alone, while sure can be a success, equally applies to 'Global Scotland' going it alone- the USP essentially is no longer there until it can be re-established, which i'd go on a limb and say it would take a fair few years to do.

Also in regards to Scotland joining the EU- i honestly do not think this is something anyone should rest their arguments on regarding Scottish Independence. The Scottish public are concerned about leaving the EU, particularly with no-deal, the SNP are making political hay of this, however i suspect that is all the EU is to the SNP. During the independence referendum it was never really tackled, and indeed the Unionists held the card 'you can't join, we're already in'. But i suspect they don't really care about actually being part of the EU. The SNP line traditionally has been (and would be in the case of any referendum), that what a post-UK Scotland does, is up to its own people- the implication being that for them independence is not contingent at all on Scotlands ability to join the EU. This of course was pointed out by us Unionists as economically idiotic with damage being done, but of course no-deal brexit even its advocates say will see the UK economy take a hit- the debate is for how long- similar lines of arguments can and were employed by the SNP. So its kinda a point that has been neutralized by how public debates have since gone- I remind you for instance that the first use of 'Project Fear' was what the SNP labelled the Unionists as , anytime during the indy ref, i'd talk about economics and why we should stay, that was used to shut anything i'd said down- in the wider picture it was used politically as exactly that. Brexit made this label UK-wide, and beyond what anyone actually thinks of the economic consequences of brexit- it has and will be used again to simply shut out aspects of the debate that are not part of the narrative that one side wants pushed.

[Daruwind]

https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...-reunification

Data from the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey has consistently shown, at least up to 2017, that Irish reunification is supported by no more than a quarter of voters. A majority favour a resumption of devolution.







Constitutional preference in Northern Ireland (Updated: 18 Jun 2019)







In March 2019, the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll found that just 38% of the Northern Ireland public thought there should be a referendum on Irish reunification, while 45% thought there should not be. If there were a referendum now, 45% said they would against unity, and 32% said they would vote in favour, with the remaining 23% responding ‘don’t know’.

So this is probably for long term timetable. However. Question is, what would be in case of severe problems due to brexit. Culture, religion, customs...usually a lot things go aside when there are major economical problems. Let´s say Brexit happens, no-deal scenario and it is not sweet dream scenario but cluster (heck it can cause next world financial crisis...brexit -> crisis in EU ...EU banks ...bang, new world wide crisis) ...that could easily push Scotland to independence, that would mean a few more years of political upheaval in Britain, that could lead to ..Irish referendum.

Nah, this is just wild theory. But in reality things rarely happen as standalone events. Usually everything influences all other things and one thing leads to another...

OF course it looks like now NI has no will for leave. That would probably not happen. But imagine world crisis, hitting EU and UK being broken down due to Scotland leaving. It is no more good old UK...

[Basil II the B.S]

That's more or less what I was saying. The chances of Irish unification in the immediate are non-existing. Long term? happens, all the time.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Oh there is a constitutional crisis brewing of massive proportions ladies and gents- just heading on from my response to QuintusSertorius about Boris refusing to stand down if VoNC'ed (In which case Britain ceases to be a democracy with a PM now refusing to leave office, which will be the first in the entire history of Britain this has happened) and moreover expecting the civil service to continue to implement Government policy, even during a GE, despite Parliament and his own party having given him the kick- puts the Civil Service in a hell of a position as it means not only will it be the first time they will be pressured to forgo their 'holding pattern', but they'll also be asked to implement policies that the opposition during the GE are actively campaigning against. It is insane- but hey ho, this is what i've been talking about when ranting about the absolute ridiculousness of FPTP and the Westminster system.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...box=1565087491

However, on the back of this, the remainers plan in the Tories is equally troubling from a democratic perspective- If Boris refuses to step down, according to the FT article on it (Google if interested, i'm alas on phone without it ready) Grieves and co are going to use that same 14 days to essentially supplant the now 'kicked out' Government, by trying to forge a party of 'National Unity'- which will not be elected, will not go to the polls. But will contain One Nation Tories, Lib-dems, Greens, and Pro-Remain Labour MP's, all coming together as a dominant block under one structure, leaving the other parties as mere rumps of themselves. Under the 14 day rule, they'll vie (and arguably be constitutionally more acceptable than a PM refusing to go after being kicked from office) with Boris's 'finished' Government as they'll have an actual majority potentially- but then can stay in until 2022 without any elections needed to be called (As the precedent that new Governments forged through either new PMs or in negotiations of the 14 days go to the polls asap for a mandate will have been well and truly crushed, as other precedents have been by quite frankly both sides being too short-sighted to see the damage their causing- also the incentive for such a large blob party to go to the polls until absolutely necessary will not be there as they'll NEED the time to hopefully outlast the consequences...i.e. 'Doing a Change UK').

This is getting a bit ridiculous now and rather dangerous. Genuinely there are brexiteers or remainers both cheering about how this would be a 'great' thing for their side to do this- fine, but now what happens if Corbyn gets in and refuses to leave? What happens if Corbyn or the lib-dems use the Government's precedents of weighting committees and using secondary legislation to avoid parliamentary scrutiny of bills- for instance Corbyn just nationalizes without Parliamentary debate or even approval large swathes of the private sector? Will these people still be cheering then? What happens if the new opposition- say that's the Tories, manage to 'Letwin' the sitting Labour Government and can push their own agenda?

These are absolutely integral to the fact that the 31st is not the end of Brexit. Its the beginning of what a brexited UK will look like, parliamentary scrutiny is integral, as is a working parliament with mechanisms to get rid of the Government, whoever that may be- the ERG and 'Global Britain' is not something particularly with this cabinet that the electorate will be happy with, though its also equally likely that it will Corbyn in number 10 arranging the post-brexit structures of state, in which case do liberals and Conservatives want to just allow Corbyn do now, unshackled by EU regulation implement a socialist state with no say from anyone else? Because that is what this is coming to, that is what Boris is now moronically touting and Grieves and co are also strutting around shouting. I cannot believe that there are elements of the British public on both sides so ing moronic that they see this as a 'great exercise' and would cheer if something like this happens, its genuinely as if they can't see beyond the incredibly near-term. 'Brexit means brexit' or 'remain means remain'.

When you point this out to them- their only response is 'well Parliament will reform itself'... Now i say this as someone who wants Parliamentary reform, who sees the Westminster system as the flawed, outdated and undemocratic model that it is, 'mother of democracies' indeed- but a mother who never moved or changed, and whose emphasis has always been as Baldwin put it 'making democracy safe for the world' (I.e. protecting UK class interests primarily from the masses)- now sure there are some positives to this. But to get back to the main point , simply believing after all this that 'Parliament will reform itself'- how the will it do that Sherlock? What incentive will any party have? We've even had brexit supporting MP's state that they'd never even consider another referendum again because of the problems it causes. Parliamentary reform is now more distant than its ever been (and that's saying something, calls for it have never been very popular- again i would know), you are stuck with these broken precedents now in place, which sure you shallowly and unintelligibly support while 'your team' are the ones benefiting, but what about when the otherside get in? No doubt you'll suddenly hypocritically 'Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee' That Corbyn is running roughshod over Parliament, the Lib-dems in coalition are rejoining the EU without parliamentary approval, or the Tories in opposition are now seizing control of the order papers and establishing a true 'shadow Government'. It is this short term stupidity of the public aiding this that will see polarization continue, because large amounts of them seem unable to see beyond their own stubby noses.

Can you tell i've partaken in a really quite frankly soul destroying conference? Genuinely despairing at the complete partisanship that turns people stupid and the lack of any ability to critically think beyond the scope of a week. Something that is replicated everywhere in the comments in the press articles about these situations.

EDIT: Context for comments- i've actually been thinking of creating a long-post of news sources detailing at the start of brexit the deterioration of parliament as an institution (As May attempted to keep brexit secret to hide the fact that nothing had been done, then with the Henry VIII implementation, the weighting committees, the use of secondary legislation, the ignoring of opposition day motions and the disputes over timetabling to the impending constitutional crisis now- Letwin, et all and finally Boris doing this vs an enforced national government- which would be unprecedented considering every other time this has formed its been by the PM with the opposition leader- never their parties simply just upping and leaving). It'll be interest to record this later as i think it will fundamentally have destroyed the idea that UK democracy is something to be 'admired' compared to the PR system or a written constitution (which democratically speaking is far superior- especially as the 'stability element' seems dead in the UK since 2010).

https://www.ft.com/content/feeed45c-...8-aa6628ac896c

https://www.ft.com/content/00e75fb4-...8-aa6628ac896c

[Daruwind]

And that kind of chaos is exactly what I was talking about Basil. Something brewing behind horizont, that not everyone can detect...heh, many thought Brexit is the worst part.

So that´s Brexit, probalby no-deal scenario, might trigger economy crisis in EU, constitutional crisis in UK, politics are polarized , Scotland is leaving.....So why the heck NI cannot unificate in such cluster storm conditions?

EDIT: bear with me, I already said it like 50 pages ago, no-deal might easily ends with German police mission to keep civil unrest checked. What failed Napoleon and Hitler, that will manage Uk itself. German tanks on Piccadilly Circus. Or V like Vendetta will happen? Not sure what is more hilarious scenario...

[Elmetiacos]

Refusing to resign after a VONC, and waiting for the inevitable court case to time out the 14 days to form an alternative government, as just one example.

Behaving like an African dictator from 20 years ago isn't what I'd call a lever at his disposal. A PM staying on having lost the confidence of the House just doesn't happen. If he tried it, either the Queen would have to sack him, or with things having gone full-on Dungeons & Dragons, Parliament could pass a Bill of Attainder against him. I can't see this as anything but a bluff aimed at frightening anti-no deal Conservatives.

Cooper-Letwin was rammed through in two days. It would have been a single day, if the Conservatives in the Lords hadn't prevented them from doing so. That is a dangerous precedent at odds with the way things have been done for a very long time.

It's unusual but not unconstitutional; four bill went through in a single day at the outbreak of the Second World War.

[Daruwind]

CBI report
https://cbicdnend.azureedge.net/medi...f?v=20190801.2

-nobody is ready for no-deal Brexit

[Aexodus]

and Boris is about to potentially set one too by refusing to resign after a VONC

A parliamentary VONC yes, a party VONC no.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

A parliamentary VONC yes, a party VONC no.

Fair to point out the difference indeed.

However refusing to resign after a parliamentary VONC is far worse. It fundamentally shatters the health of UK democracy and the sustainability of its political system and sets a precedent to all future PM's effectively destroying the ability of the Commons to 'check' the Government. Though that's what you get when you have a Westminster system that is built around the idea of fair governance through gentleman's agreement, as if the UK was immune to the issues the rest of the world faces (and thus why predominantly democracies employ written constitutions, proper checks and balance- unlike the Westminster system which has allowed a tripartite system to decay and become far from its working intention, and be centralized more and more in firstly the Cabinet and then the PMship itself.

Frankly if this was merely an internal party VONC issue, it wouldn't matter half as much, beyond tearing the Tory party to bits, but it would have no direct wider implications for the UK's political system and democratic health.

[caratacus]

It seems Remain supprting MPs are busy plotting with the Commons Speaker to block any attempt at leaving the EU on 31st May. This morning a BBC reporter stated that John Bercow was to facilitate a alteration under section 1922 of the Erskine May Parliamentary Regulations to use a Standing Order so MPs could take control of the House of Commons after a vote of no confidence in the Government. This would path the way for opposition parties to cooperate and form an alternative government “National Unity Government” under emergency powers. Of course this cannot be done without the cooperation of the monarch, as it requires her consent to form a government.

Are there no limits to the machinations of these people, who not only are nefariously attempting to undermine Brexit, but doing so in a way that threatens the foundations of our constitutional democracy.

Remainer MPs could ask the Queen to sack Boris Johnson if he loses a no-confidence
-johnson-if-he-loses-a-no-confidence-vote/ar-AAFsQIZ?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp

Senior anti-Brexit politicians could try to drag the Queen into politics by telling her to sack Boris Johnson if he refuses to resign after losing a no-confidence vote.

Anti-Brexit Conservative Dominic Grieve says the Queen should tell the prime minister to resign should he try and ignore a vote in the House of Commons. MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit are considering a plan to vote against Johnson in a no-confidence vote this autumn, a move designed to collapse his government and prevent a no-deal Brexit. Johnson will reportedly simply refuse to resign in this scenario, allow the UK to crash out of the EU, and then call a general election, setting up an unprecedented constitutional crisis.

The Brexit crisis has taken another bizarre turn as senior anti-Brexit politicians discuss dragging the Queen into politics by telling her to sack Boris Johnson if he refuses to resign after losing a no-confidence vote.

Not content with undermining a constitutional precedent that has lasted since the Restoration in 1660 to keep the monarch out of the nation's politics, we have a main opposition party that is quite prepared to risk the breakup of the Union to do so, through a dirty deal with the SNP,

Labour Party open to a Scottish independence referendum - McDonnell
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...-idUKKCN1UX0JC
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s opposition Labour Party should allow Scotland to hold another independence referendum if the Scottish parliament votes for one, the second most powerful man in the party said.

Labour’s John McDonnell told an event at the Edinburgh festival fringe that his party should not try to block a second vote on independence, the Guardian reported.

“We would not block something like that. We would let the Scottish people decide. That’s democracy,” McDonnell was quoted as saying.

Hardly a surprise though from people who think that if you don't win a referendum first time, then you can always try again until you get the right result.

[Daruwind]

@Caracus So second referendum is undemocratic but Boris plans no to step down after VONC and force no-deal without parliament support are fully democratic?

EDIT:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...no-deal-latest
Anyway looks like Corbyn not interested in National Unity Goverment...

EDIT2:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...op-hard-brexit
GE instead of National unity gov..in case it is lead by conservative....

[Aexodus]

What happens in America today happens here tomorrow.

We’re doing the same damn underhand and honour-less politics as they’ve been doing for years. Almost party’s doing it or at least the big ones are. They’re all hypocrites.

[caratacus]

@Caracus So second referendum is undemocratic but Boris plans no to step down after VONC and force no-deal without parliament support are fully democratic?

EDIT:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...no-deal-latest
Anyway looks like Corbyn not interested in National Unity Goverment...

I have no issue with those who are opposed to Brexit, I fully take on board some of the arguments made. It is the devious manner in which these politicians are behaving, that I find completely distasteful. If the government collapses then we must have an election, and those MPs standing should be preared to stand by their voting record on Brexit this past 3 years. These politicians don't want that, they want to prevent Brexit period, and will stop at nothing to do so, even if it jeopardises the unity of the Country. We are seeing people in Britain knowing conspiring with foreign interests to undermine those of our democratic system, such things haven't happened since the days of the Jacobites in the 17th century!

I am not surprised that Corbyn has said he won't join a government of national unity, because he knows he probably won't be asked. Few of the Blairites would want that, let alone Tory rebels.

[Elmetiacos]

@Caracus So second referendum is undemocratic but Boris plans no to step down after VONC and force no-deal without parliament support are fully democratic?

EDIT:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...no-deal-latest
Anyway looks like Corbyn not interested in National Unity Goverment...

EDIT2:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...op-hard-brexit
GE instead of National unity gov..in case it is lead by conservative....

This reaction is as expected. Corbyn may not be interested but remember that shortly before the last general election the Parliamentary Labour Party passed a no confidence motion in him by 197 votes to 40. There are still a lot - probably a large majority - of Labour MPs who may view it as a possible opportunity to sideline or even get rid of him. It may come down to numbers. How will the Conservative MPs react to Boris losing a VONC? Dump him or keep him? Will they fear losing an election (and possibly getting a Corbyn government) or think they can win one? Would the Labour leadership change its mind if it's made clear that this would only be a caretaker government which will resign once another extension (or a second referendum or a Norway-like deal or something) has been secured?

[caratacus]

This reaction is as expected. Corbyn may not be interested but remember that shortly before the last general election the Parliamentary Labour Party passed a no confidence motion in him by 197 votes to 40. There are still a lot - probably a large majority - of Labour MPs who may view it as a possible opportunity to sideline or even get rid of him.

I think that there are moves afoot to replace Corbyn with McDonnell. Given his statement on another Scottish referendum, it seems that he might have already been asked to head a cross party government of national unity with Swinson and Sturgeon. Quite what has caused this old Trot to distance himself from his Lefty chum Corbyn and fall so completely into the Remain camp with the Blairites is beyond me. Although I have a few guesses, given what has been going on.

Sure enough it would present a golden opportunity to sideline Corbyn and eventually oust him on the pretext of needing to work with other parties. The Blairites must be very excited of getting rid of two problems at once, but of course with little regard to the political consequences of doing so.

John McDonnell deepens Labour rift over Scottish independence vote
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/l...exit-z0hdsbmbq

Labour’s splits over Scottish independence burst into the open again today as John McDonnell reaffirmed his pledge to sanction a second referendum in the face of an intensifying backlash from his party.

Despite being told by the leader of Scottish Labour in a meeting this morning that there was “no case” for another referendum and condemned by more than a dozen Westminster candidates, Mr McDonnell refused to back down.

The shadow chancellor, who is Jeremy Corbyn’s closest political ally, dismayed his colleagues in Scotland on Tuesday when he made the significant shift of policy at an event in Edinburgh

Scottish Labour leader hits back in indyref2 row
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-49263525
The Scottish Labour leader has hit back at suggestions from shadow chancellor John McDonnell that the party would not oppose an independence referendum. Richard Leonard said he had made clear to Mr McDonnell that there is "no case" for a second referendum. He also claimed that the majority of people in Scotland were still opposed to one being held.

Mr Leonard told BBC Scotland that Labour's official policy is still to oppose a referendum. He said he had spoken to Mr McDonnell to "put to him the very clear view that the people of Scotland do not want a second independence referendum and also to remind him that the last independence referendum was supposed to be once in a generation".

Mr Leonard added: "I was elected 18 months ago directly by the members of the Scottish Labour Party, and one of the parts of the platform I stood on was clear opposition to a second independence referendum.

[Kyriakos]

Brexit cartoons getting edgier

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/37cdb...ormat&fit=max&

[Alastor]

Brexit cartoons getting edgier

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/37cdb...ormat&fit=max&

The link doesn't seem to work. But Brexit has indeed been a cartoonist goldmine. I bought a while back a nice book collecting Brexit cartoons. I'm hoping for another nice collection after Britain is finally out.

[Kyriakos]

It is just the stupid greediness of the braindead Guardian... I mean who goes into so much trouble to make a cartoon image only accessible from their newspaper page

Here is a pic of it:

[95thrifleman]

Why should Boris resign? Corbyn was, by parlimentary tradition, supposed to resign after he lost the last general election.

Just watched the labour shadow transport sec harp on about how labour already has a deal ready which is basicly lock into all the EU rules without any say in the EU.

Simple fact, if it gets pushed to the general election labour will be slaughtered by lib dems. Labour has lost the plot, even throwing independence at Scotland in desperation to get them to prop up a labour governemnt.