Originally Posted by
Basil II the B.S
Ahah I agree the poll is pretty scary, let's be honest here, there's a level of fanaticism. You bring an interesting point about Westminster, let me expand it. For England, Brexit was a revolt against London as well, because it's no longer perceived as part of the nation. Too distant politically, economically, culturally and socially. I honestly think if you had taken these polls two years ago, the numbers would have been lower. Now it has become emotional, there's a strong sense of distrust due to the potential threat of Brexit being overturned, which is obviously radicalizing people's views. This is mostly the EU's fault and the hardline Remainers like Blair. People really don't like the idea of voting for something and then finding out it doesn't matter anyway because ''the elite says so''.
I agree here in the main particularly with the analysis of greater radicalization as time goes on, but i'd also say this is from the brexiteer leadership as well among the Conservatives and the brexit supporting media- when you have them instead of trying to forge unity to create a sustainable position, instead the use of 'traitors', and the 'put up and shut up' argument- which politically has been a huge mistake, combined with a government who whatever we think of May (I see her as a brexiteer, others i know see her as a pro-EU leader) whose rhetoric is to deliver brexit, flouting parliamentary and legal precedents to weight committees and conduct brexit in as much secrecy as possible, it will polarize. So all sides share the blame, and to an equal extent i'd say as neither side has bothered to try and reach a middle ground. Its embodiment is in parliamentary terms the Lib-dems vs ERG, 'bollocks to brexit' vs 'anyone who is not our vision is a traitor', there is no attempt from these two at compromise, thus you'll get a divided electorate equally politicized (or at least, a divided electorate will not be brought back together by leaders showing the way forward on this).
Though remainers i will reiterate are by no means innocent here, Change UK...or whoever their calling themselves now, highlighted that well enough when essentially the perception of their talking down to leave voters meant they could get very little traction to what they were trying to achieve, which hilariously we must all remember was originally to 'unify' the country on a centrist platform... by...not remotely being 'centrist' in regards to the brexit debate (which as your poll shows on the yougov page, has essentially bridged across party divides, with Tory brexiteers feeling more in common with Corbynite brexiteers, than remain voting conservatives- while brexit exists their is a new axis to consider for British politics.. because who loves drawing simple graphs?)
The polls about Scotland and Northern Ireland shouldn't really be seen as anti-Scottish or anti-Irish, but simply as a declarion of independence from the EU. I'm sure most would rather remain friends with the Irish and the Scots but that shouldn't come at the cost of being subordinates to Brussels. It's also quite the punch against the argument that Brexit was voted on the memories of the imperial past. If Brexiteers are ready to give up on the UK altogether so long that it means leaving the EU, it's not about empire. It's the total opposite, it's about sovereignty. They would rather let go Scots, Welsh and Irish people in the name of true independence.
I don't think its anti-Scottish or Irish indeed, but it is anti-British essentially (according to this poll at least for this groups perceptions) which is the joint project, and i get the reasoning behind this, but it is just shocking that essentially the anti-Brussels perspective is so virulent that (and not to get too macro about this), brexiteers of the Conservative party are in the long term willing to see their 'place in the world' diminish to the point where indeed power imbalances take on an even greater aspect in trade agreements and diplomacy (Which is a whole part of the sovereignty dispute that is not yet talked about, but soon i think will be firmly on the political agenda). But indeed, i wouldn't say brexit is linked to imperialism at all, Just like the idea of 'Global Britain' that Conservative brexiteers like to tout is a fantasy, their not narratives that 'fit' with what most people want, nor what is possible.
As for Osbourne, yeah... I have been noticing for years that the entire party is out of touch with reality. There's a massive problem of cognitive dissonance that was probably caused by relatively easy and undeserving victories at the ballot, mostly thanks to the infighting of Labour. I heard that Rory Stewart did very well in the TV debates, by Brexiteers standards, who appreciated his honest speak despite disagreeing with him. Unfortunately, the latter counts and Bojo should win easily.
I'll admit i couldn't actually watch the leadership debate earlier- i love these sorts of things, but it was too excruciating for even me. Rory is coming across well i agree, but he's essentially using the Blair playbook and modernizing it for the current times and audience, Boris was just...christ. Javid is an air head, Hunt has no idea where his line should be, and Gove has been on his best behaviour since the drugs thing... which is creepy, i'll be honest, take the politics out of it, the man comes across as a creep. So i couldn't get beyond 15 minutes i'm afraid , so i'll gladly trust and use your analysis here on whose coming across better.
But aye, the Remain referendum campaign was terrible. The fact that relying on economic arguments had actually almost lost the Unionists the Scottish referendum was seemingly lost (It was only last minute promises of devo-max that swung it essentially), they gave the emotional and nationalist appeal, as well as the 'positive' case to the SNP- who had then the whole of Scottish culture, a culture and identity designed to be easily exportable (and monetized ) by its emotional appeal, to play with, and they used it well. It's like nothing was learned but as you say the message of 'well, we won'. I'm beginning to suspect that the Conservatives Post-Blair, never actually managed to get their (in)famous political campaign machine back, i suspect it may have died with Major.
The economic one... is tricky. When it comes to working class Brexiteers is simply a ''I don't have much to lose anyway, my life sucks, if there's going to be mass economic damage it'll mainly hit rich Londoners and those people don't care about me anyway''. But that's just part of the argument. I suspect Brexiteers that are well off have more mixed thoughts about this. They either really value independence or they think they'll do just fine and find opportunities as well.
Agreed here- it was something again that Remain totally missed, after the crash, austerity and the structural issues, the worst thing to do is to argue that 'Economically things will be worse'- sure they can always get worse in a macro sense that then effects personal circumstances, but trying to get across that message in a convincing way just does not wash. You have people currently in work, using foodbanks in ever rising numbers- try telling them that brexit will be bad for the economy- what will they care? And rightly so, i get it. In terms of those not struggling it is indeed interesting to see the attitudes. A big misassumption i've seen the brexit press make is that academics are anti-brexit because it'll hit them economically, which isn't the case. It's looking like it will provide a lot of opportunity for the social sciences (except for economists... but that is more because i'm committed to applied History being revived and taking over from economists because they lack the tools to take into account the nuances of human behaviour through most of their models... its a personal bias ) and humanities due to the sheer amount of work post-brexit Britain will require in these fields. So your right to point out the nuanced issues of this that economically, there will be those who benefit from brexit as well as lose, but also that the 'winners and losers' will not be quite as expected i suspect.
About your point ''what happens if the UK'' falls apart: I assume that in your post ''we'' means the Scots and in that case I agree that you'll likely re-join soon enough. The English definitely won't, given the polls above.
This is true, though i should have been clearer (it was late, and pizza called...), i more meant to say that a Britain that doesn't collapse, but appears on the verge of collapsing (or one that is indeed experiencing significant economic damage) is likely to rejoin the EU in short order because of the non-sustainability of brexit currently, there is no 'solid' support for it. The Conservative membership are one of the smaller party membership bases, for instance the SNP actually has more.
https://researchbriefings.parliament...ummary/SN05125
For the rest of the UK electorate, brexit is somewhat contingent on not causing any major issues, and delivering on some of the positives that were promised, positives that given the UK's domestic situation economically might have been a stretch. Given that even now essentially brexit is either for remain or leave the same kind of support, its very 'up in the air'. So even in England, a brexit that sees serious economic damage (Caused directly or able to be spun as thus convincingly), or indeed the UK fall apart will not exist for much longer. There simply are not enough hardcore adherents 'in any situation' as these Conservative members are, which is why they here are essentially being their own worst enemy. 51% of 124,000 (and its arguable now less as their have been reports of the Tories having real issues with donations and activists) is nowhere enough. There needed to be a sold majority consensus, of which there is not, and certainly not for the 'hard brexit' that might see these Rubicons crossed to overuse a phrase
. We're likely in the territory now of brexit as political football regardless of what happens (If Boris WTO's it, its likely Labour will get in and then do their customs union adherence to EU rules, which the lib-dems might even push to a second ref on rejoining, and then the Tories no doubt will split/decide on a new approach- we're in for a fun decade i suspect...), but a big even like sacrificing the UK, or a true economic crash from it would see brexit as a political concept finished for England, Scotland and all.
EDIT: Sorry there mate, i blathered a bit
, so damn tired haha. But i hope what i was trying to say came across well enough.