Ethiopia declares war & invades Somalia; Somalia gets further screwed

[Farnan]

From what I've read, it seems the cause of Ethiopian intervention is a statement by the UIC that they seek to add ethnic Somalias from neighboring states, such as Ethiopia, to Somalia thus threatening Ethiopia. Ethiopia then backed the Federal Government.

Also from what I read, Ethiopia is not seeking a destruction of the UIC, but rather a severe weakening of its power and an upperhand in the peace negotiations. And since Ethiopia is a giant in the region it seems it may be successful.

[MoROmeTe]

And they get that reduction. Then what? The UIC is given time to breathe, the interim government can't to anything without the Ethiopian backing. And after a short time we come back to the same situation. Not a very smart thing.

A realistic approach is to let the interim government, which is artificially kept alive, die down and then get the remaining parties to the negotiation table...

But it seems that the bloodshed will continue for the time being...

[tomdidiot]

And they get that reduction. Then what? The UIC is given time to breathe, the interim government can't to anything without the Ethiopian backing. And after a short time we come back to the same situation. Not a very smart thing.

A realistic approach is to let the interim government, which is artificially kept alive, die down and then get the remaining parties to the negotiation table...

But it seems that the bloodshed will continue for the time being...

The Ethiopians aren't just going to let the Transitional Government collapse - that would certainly NOT help their relationship with the US, as the Transitional government is CIA-backed. Besides, the transitional government is Internationally recognized and they'll probrably just flee the country and set up a government-in-exile.

[Lavastein]

From what I've read, it seems the cause of Ethiopian intervention is a statement by the UIC that they seek to add ethnic Somalias from neighboring states, such as Ethiopia, to Somalia thus threatening Ethiopia. Ethiopia then backed the Federal Government.

Also from what I read, Ethiopia is not seeking a destruction of the UIC, but rather a severe weakening of its power and an upperhand in the peace negotiations. And since Ethiopia is a giant in the region it seems it may be successful.

you can get more with a kind word and a gun, than just a kind word.

I totally back Ethiopia. There is no question about where im leaning to.

[AMERICARULES]

For what it's worth here's what I think would be the best resolution to this situation.

The UIC hopefully will be utterly destroyed as a political force within the region. When you've got clerics declaring that people who don't pray five times a day will be executed, it's a bad situation. Nothing good can ultimately come of UIC rule. They will turn into the Taliban. We need to look past the short term here.

Somaliland and Puntland should go their own separate ways. They seem to be functioning quite well compared to the rest of Somalia, so there's no reason to meddle in their affairs and ruin something that is, for the most part, working.

Finally, hopefully a secular, moderately liberal government can be restored to Mogadishu with the help of the Ethiopians. I know this sounds unlikely, but hopefully the international community can do a better job fixing this place and its government than the last time around.

[Farnan]

Of course US Spec Forces are involved. Their is probably a Spec Forces officer sitting next to the Ethiopian General advising him on what would be a good plan and what would not, and teams there training the Ethiopian Army, but their is probably not even one American pulling a trigger. The Spec Forces expertise is training Indigs to fight against enemies of the US...


Also, Caelius reading that last quote, I think the world may sometimes be a better world is we were all more like Ethiopia...

[King Sakkeus]

Wow... I cant believe people actually want Somalia to be a country with no law and order with warlords killing people as they please.
Unless Ethiopia restores law and order wich I really doubt, then we are back in that situation.
Seriously people what the hell does it matter if the rulers are islamic? They brought law and order and unlike people seem to think, didnt execute people for not praying.
Because of the west and Ethiopia attacking them, the place might really become a safe haven for foreign jihadists. There were none in Somalia before the invasion but now there just might be after the ICU called for their help.
When Ethiopia leaves, and they will leave because most somalis dont want them there, the jihadists aint going to go home, atleast not willingly.

[turd]

Seriously people what the hell does it matter if the rulers are islamic? They brought law and order and unlike people seem to think, didnt execute people for not praying.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,234817,00.html (that's an AP story)
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx..._news__africa/
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/...n2015687.shtml
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=52004
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...ixnewstop.html
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ory?id=2210223
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=50980
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...i101414D77.DTL

yeah, a bunch of positive developments right there.

[danzig]

yeah, a bunch of positive developments right there.

Now, now atleast the people werent facing with random killings...when they were killed it would be predetermined and expected! Certainly being killed for not praying is better then randomly being killed. People arguing for defense of the Islamic overthrow in Somalia (and that is what it was) are probably same people who cheered Palpatine when he gave his speech about safe and secure society!

[King Sakkeus]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,234817,00.html (that's an AP story)
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx..._news__africa/
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/...n2015687.shtml
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=52004
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...ixnewstop.html
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ory?id=2210223
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=50980
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...i101414D77.DTL

yeah, a bunch of positive developments right there.

Seems I was wrong but is it not better if you must listen how movies are bad as opposed to warlords extorting money at illegal checkpoints and random killing.
I doubt Ethiopia has the money or will to make Somalia secure and the warlords could return.

[PacSubCom]

and the warlords could return.

It has already begun.

[Ó Cathasaigh]

Hopefully they can find some kind of strong Somalian leadership in this mess. I'm guessing what can save Somalia is a "dictatoresque" leader that's going to rise in during the fighting. Hopefully he won't be a total dirtbag.

The Islamo-Facsists are finished, or so I hope, in this region. They'll be crushed under Ethiopian/Somalian Govt Boots if all goes well.

[Richard]

This is a bit off topic, but an interesting tidbit relating to this is that I heard somewhere (news paper awhile back I believe, about some villages in the south of Somalia being bombed) that the Somali government use Ukrainean pilots for their aircraft because no one in their country is qualified to fly one.

[{nF}remix]

Mogadishu will be taken, but Mogadishu will be the Baghdad of Ethiopia. You will see car bombings, suicide bombings, and assasinations. Basically guerilla warfare will ensue for months and the islamist will continue to fight all across the country as they vowed and not one village will be spared.


Hopefully that does not happen and a stable government can be erected by the transitional government

[MoROmeTe]

As the UIC seems to flee, I really do hope Ethiopia goes all the way and hunts all the militants and disbands all of the warlord militia while providing security in the country and Mogadishu. Otherwise we shall see a return to the situation of anarchy and in-fighting between warlords while the interim government does zilch aka nada.

If Ethiopia redraws quickly, we are so back to the "failed state" situation and the UIC will soon regain power and there goes the Horn of Afirca firendly neigbourhood again...

[MoROmeTe]

As the UIC seems to flee, I really do hope Ethiopia goes all the way and hunts all the militants and disbands all of the warlord militia while providing security in the country and Mogadishu. Otherwise we shall see a return to the situation of anarchy and in-fighting between warlords while the interim government does zilch aka nada.

If Ethiopia redraws quickly, we are so back to the "failed state" situation and the UIC will soon regain power and there goes the Horn of Afirca firendly neigbourhood again...

[turd]

Mogadishu will be taken, but Mogadishu will be the Baghdad of Ethiopia. You will see car bombings, suicide bombings, and assasinations. Basically guerilla warfare will ensue for months and the islamist will continue to fight all across the country as they vowed and not one village will be spared.


Hopefully that does not happen and a stable government can be erected by the transitional government

Wrong. We are talking about Ethiopians now. They are not bound by kid-gloves; "political correctness" and "sensitivity". If the described scenario were to unfold, the Ethiopians will open a can of whoop ass because they don't give a damn. There isn't any real media in there to trumpet up anti-Ethiopian propaganda as is the case in Iraq. In other words, Ethiopians won't get stabbed in the back by their own.

[Farnan]

The TFG, Puntland, and Ethiopian alliance has taken Mogadishu without a fight, and the UIC is down to 3,000 fighters, many of whom are children or foreign Jihadists.

Also, the Islamic State of Iraq, the umbrella group that controls many of the insurgent factions in Iraq, has called upon Jihadists around the world to head to Somalia...

To King Sakkeus: Ethiopia is one of the most powerful states in that region of Africa.

[Casuir]

Ethiopia restore stability to somalia, yeah right. Not exactly coming from paradise themselves. My moneys on ICU here, they look to be playing this one fairly smart.

[Bwaho]

ya what on earth could ethiopia improve? it's just another crappy african country