Korea Situation

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

First of all I'm not even Japanese, not even ethnically.
Second of all you are making this about China being better than Japan when it has nothing to do with my argument.
Third your argument seems to literally be that China is a belligerent douche but they are strong so who cares.
Finally what true facts? Should I take propaganda issued by the CCP as factual? You have not even pointed out what part of what I have said is untrue.
If you don't recall we had more or less the same conversation over here.

[Exarch]

given the crap state of north korean rocketry we've observed this past month, i think we can rest easy knowing the Norks may have nukes but they'll never be able to launch them.

Also, i do believe the Chinese are somewhat fine with Trump bombing the nuke reactor.

[hellheaven1987]

I say US should just pull out South Korea if South Korea does not want THAAD; US military should not operate in a nuclear environment.

[caratacus]

Just to be clear, THAAD as positioned in South Korea would be able to thwart missiles (including those armed with nuclear warheads) in the terminal phase in and around the peninsula and knock them out using simple kinetic energy. THAAD in South Korea would not have the ability to thwart an ascending missile headed for the continental United States or Hawaii. As suggested by its name, THAAD was designed to knock out high altitude targets, meaning all those low-altitude targets and regular shelling from North Korean artillery wouldn't be affected by THAAD. China argues that THAAD is thus not really necessary for a real confrontation with North Korea and is really a measure with the Chinese in mind, especially with its advanced radar system that can detect potential incoming Chinese targets.

I think the statement by Trump that South Korea should pay for THAAD through better trade deals, really shows that he is still grandstanding to the American public, and when a politician does this in office, you know that he isn't being completely honest. It is of course grandstanding, because it is a statement entirely inappropriate given the situation. No doubt it is expedient to claw back some of the money for stationing this system in South Korea, but as you point out the defence system is designed for high altitude ballistic missiles aimed at targets some distance away. It would be useless to protect targets in the potential combat zone within South Korea, which include Seoul.

For this reason there is a lot of opposition to stationing THAAD in South Korea and given that elections are close, telling South Koreans that they must pay for it, is incredibly stupid and insensitive, and guaranteed to get a government in office who aren't cooperative with the Americans.

I also find Trump's schmoozing with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping somewhat at odds with his previous statements about China's attitude to North Korea. Or indeed the Chinese UN representative, who recently made a statement to the effect, that solving the North Korean problem, is "not China's responsibility", when it has everything to do with China! Trump actually Tweeted yesterday that the firing of the recent missile "disrespected China" Perhaps Trump's son in law's close business contacts with the Country may be having an influence on his approach, because I don't see much evidence from Beijing that Xi Jinping is actually doing anything to defuse this crisis, other than make sympathetic statements.

What I find especially disturbing from the American government, is its acceptance of any nuclear capability in the Korean peninsula, as they have stated that it is probably not possible to roll back what has already happened. Instead they define their red line, as being North Korea developing a missile that could reach America. In this and in Chinese attitude, people should be extremely cautious in believing that these superpowers represent any bodies security but their own. This nasty little state is a product of both of them and the dangers it poses are not limited solely to Korea and the countries that border it, with or without intercontinental missiles. The whole world should be standing up now to voice an opinion on the issue, and yet the voices of a great many governments are silent outside of Washington and Bejing, content that it will be remedied by both when the opposite has been true for many years now.

[Love Mountain]

How is the USA a bully in this scenario? If anything the bully is China who uses economic subversion, is the only country in East Asia other than North Korea who has nukes and is constantly bullying its neighbors in the literal sense. Not to mention the fact that they are always using the USA and Japan as scapegoats in their propaganda. As I said China has cowed South Korea before and it was for things that had nothing to do with the USA. Does anyone honestly think that if America were gone tomorrow that China wouldn't start to exert itself on its neighbors? You know sort of like how they are doing at this exact moment in the South China Sea. It is a well known fact that Red China has antagonized basically all their neighbors throughout their entire history. Those Asian states as well as the USA realized back then that China was a threat and realize today that China is still a threat that must be contained and it really is that simple.

What business does USA have in the Pacific? Especially when it comes to security measures? China rightfully sees American security agreements in the Pacific as a threat, and any expansions to these efforts are also rightfully seen as a threat. China is like any other great power, it doesn't like any potential enemies in its backyard. Mind you, I am of the opinion that USA hegemony is in the best interest of the global community, so I welcome aggressive American policy. I don't have any expertise in the Pacific, but I do know that China so far hasn't been willing to engage in military action, we need to see how far we can push them. This is a complete 180 when it comes to my usual rhetoric about Russia, and it doesn't have much to do with the fact that I'm from Russia. No, on the contrary, we've seen Russia invade twice already, in 2008 and 2014. Russia is a bold player willing to defend it's "territory". Current American political climate will not tolerate another war over scraps of land that the public holds no fond feelings of.

Historically China propped up the ROK's mortal enemy the DPRK which continues to this day, why wouldn't South Korea be wary of China. Moreover we forget that while attention is being put on North Korea the real big kid on the block is China and it isn't like China is eager to give North Korea their comeuppance and come to save South Korea. Had it been up to China then South Korea and North Korea would have "re-unified" decades ago. When this dream became impossible and no thanks to Bill Clinton China decided to become a giant of exportation and now South Korean markets depend on Chinese trade.

I mean it's pretty obvious why. Good old Communism vs the world ideology, don't ya remember?

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

What business does USA have in the Pacific? Especially when it comes to security measures? China rightfully sees American security agreements in the Pacific as a threat, and any expansions to these efforts are also rightfully seen as a threat. China is like any other great power, it doesn't like any potential enemies in its backyard. Mind you, I am of the opinion that USA hegemony is in the best interest of the global community, so I welcome aggressive American policy. I don't have any expertise in the Pacific, but I do know that China so far hasn't been willing to engage in military action, we need to see how far we can push them. This is a complete 180 when it comes to my usual rhetoric about Russia, and it doesn't have much to do with the fact that I'm from Russia. No, on the contrary, we've seen Russia invade twice already, in 2008 and 2014. Russia is a bold player willing to defend it's "territory". Current American political climate will not tolerate another war over scraps of land that the public holds no fond feelings of.


I mean it's pretty obvious why. Good old Communism vs the world ideology, don't ya remember?

USA has the business of protecting its allies from Red China. I mean if Malaysia, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea etc etc all of a sudden like China and don't want military or monetary aid then they should just say so and the USA can just leave. American hegemony in the Pacific is very positive if we were to compare it to Chinese hegemony. China should rightfully see American presence as a threat to their power as it was in reaction to the threat posed by Red China. Containing Red China is something that everyone should want as they are still ruled by the CCP Politburo and are not really any better than they used to be. At best they allowed Capitalist markets (with extreme amounts of regulations), China is basically what North Korea would be if they accepted Capitalist economics. Make no mistake the PROC is still a threat, just because they sell cheap goods to us instead of chanting slogans in Beijing doesn't make them any less dangerous. The only reason that China has not engaged anyone in military operations since the Korean War or the Sino-Vietnamese War is because they lack an effective military and because they fear American retaliation. Despite that there have been multiple incidents between China and Taiwan the kind that we see in the Korean Peninsula to this day.

[Ludicus]

Donald Trump offers to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un .

If it would be appropriate for me to meet with him, I would absolutely, I would be honoured to do it

Sometimes I just don't know what to say. Is he naive about people/issues he doesn't understand?

[Roma_Victrix]

Donald Trump offers to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un .

Sometimes I just don't know what to say. Is he naive about people/issues he doesn't understand?

As usual, Donald Trump is full of surprises. Where would this hypothetical meeting take place? In China? Along the DMZ?

[ggsimmonds]

I'm now of the mind that war is not imminent. This is just stupid posturing from both sides.
I don't like it, but it beats the alternative I guess.

If the US was to follow a previously given piece of advice and shoot down a NK missile right now it would be a disaster. We don't have near the necessary number of assets in the region to do anything of the sort. Carriers aren't like the things from the Avengers movies.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

War isn't imminent at all, North Korea doesn't actually want an open confrontation since that defeats the purpose of mutually assured destruction. DPRK can't even hit America either, at best they hit South Korea or Japan so DPRK can't even engage in the concept of MAD effectively. When DPRK can upgrade its missile systems then the chances for an actual nuclear holocaust will be different.

[Ludicus]

And now, what a mess!
China Demands "Immediate Halt" Of US Missile Shield Deployment.

We oppose the deployment of the US missile system to South Korea and call on all parties to immediately stop this process. We are ready to take necessary measures to protect our interests

Moscow has likewise opposed the stationing of the THAAD system to be an “additional destabilizing factor for the region” amid alarmingly increasing tensions. It has called on Washington and Seoul to reconsider the decision.

Further complicating matters, Trump stunned Seoul last week when he suggested South Korea should pay for the $1 billion THAAD system

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Call China's bluff, what could they even do about it except threaten South Korea with more sanctions. The only reason China has gotten this far is because we've let them. Had we not been engaged throughout the Middle East China would never have gotten the chance to place itself within the South China Sea. Put that with the corporate millionaires that absolutely love Chinese exports. Now China thinks it can negotiate from a position of strength, here I am hoping that Trump's sudden 180 from his campaign platform was to try and lure them out like this.

As China has stated they shall do "live-fire exercises and test new weapons" which is hardly surprising since the PLA does this on a regular basis either way and similar exercises for possible scenarios. They are now making this known as a sort of way to add pressure to the situation, clear blow fish.
Verdict: China is a paper tiger and with enough pressure they would fold like an origami house in the rain. Worst case the situation escalates after a long time and South Koreans become increasingly more confused as to whether they want to continue business as usual with regards to Chinese trade or finally put down their foot against Chinese encroachment.

[Love Mountain]

I say we hit North Korea now. We are on a ticking time bomb. North Korea will eventually develop effective nuclear munitions, and China will eventually have the capability to launch massive amphibious invasions. Neither of those things are true at the moment or in the next 20 years, so we gotta do something soon. I dread a world where China can actually threaten the Pacific or when North Korea can accurately hit targets in Japan and Australia.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

In all honesty I do think that the time to do away with North Korea is now. There has probably never been a better time save for when Kim Il Sung died and the Soviet collapse, had it not been for Operation Desert Storm we could have probably diverted those resources to wipe out the DPRK.
China is not strong enough yet to win in a confrontation and North Korea does not have the means to hit us, better we do it swiftly than wait two decades until they develop their own means or China gives it to them.

[Admiral Piett]

Seriously, China is not in a position to do jack if North Korea's alleged nuclear development facilities and missile sites are hit. The two easiest solutions here are either withdraw entirely from Korean peninsula or just stop beating around the bush and do what probably needs to be done to keep the region from turning into a location in Fallout.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

If only North Korea is being attacked then China really shouldn't stick out their neck for them. 1950 is a long ways away. I really can't stress enough how inadequate the PLA is to deal with any sort of military situation.

[Copperknickers II]

In all honesty I do think that the time to do away with North Korea is now. There has probably never been a better time save for when Kim Il Sung died and the Soviet collapse, had it not been for Operation Desert Storm we could have probably diverted those resources to wipe out the DPRK.
China is not strong enough yet to win in a confrontation and North Korea does not have the means to hit us, better we do it swiftly than wait two decades until they develop their own means or China gives it to them.

It might be decades before North Korea can develop reliable nuclear weapons capable of hitting the mainland USA. It shouldn't even be on America's radar at the moment, it's a problem for people who still need to get their big brothers to buy them alcohol at present. The regime will probably fall by itself long before that. The real danger is a conventional attack on South Korea. In case it's escaped everyone's notice, Russia and China have nuclear weapons, they have never openly attacked the USA. What they've done is attacked localised areas in their hinterlands in a game of chess, one move at a time. North Korea doesn't even really have that option since it only has one direction to go in and there's no leeway. Iran is the greater threat over the long term because the Middle East is a much less stable region and if WW3 starts it's going to start there. The Korean peninsula is boring, nothing interesting has happened there for 50 years and it's not going to any time soon, and even if it did, America's peace of mind is not worth sacrificing South Korea by starting an unnecessary war, even if the latter would actually help anything.

[Love Mountain]

We've been hoping for a regime collapse for decades now. We shouldn't leave anything up to chance. I agree that right now is a bad time for any decisive military action. Too many problems at home. Perhaps the next presidency.

[Admiral Piett]

Just in case you may have failed to notice, Russia and China are "relatively" stable regimes that aren't interested in threatening US and its allies with nuclear destruction. One cannot possibly compare the NK regime to either of those two regional powers. The US government is not one that always responds to threats like this with "patience" nor should expect them to. Especially if its been proven that they do have the capability to do serious damage with its fanatical and secretive intelligence apparatus. Its no coincidence that this change in reaction from the Pentagon comes not long after the high profile assassination. Any agency capable of transporting and deploying chemical weapons like that is also capable transporting nuclear material. It's just as likely that potential sabotage is limiting the effectiveness of the missiles for all we know as it is technical inferiority.

There's additionally nothing to suggest that Iran is a larger threat than North Korea. Although very outdated, the North Korean military and intelligence apparatus is far larger than Iran. Its nuclear program is decades ahead of Iran. But Iran only ever really shouts Death to America, whereas the North Korean regime is far more specific in what it wants to do to the US. And there is no indication that any effective elements in the military or intelligence elements in NK are hostile to Jong-un. He's effectively removed all potential obstacles there already. The people there are under such total dominance that it has no real ability without serious outside interference to topple it.

[ggsimmonds]

It might be decades before North Korea can develop reliable nuclear weapons capable of hitting the mainland USA. It shouldn't even be on America's radar at the moment, it's a problem for people who still need to get their big brothers to buy them alcohol at present. The regime will probably fall by itself long before that. The real danger is a conventional attack on South Korea. In case it's escaped everyone's notice, Russia and China have nuclear weapons, they have never openly attacked the USA. What they've done is attacked localised areas in their hinterlands in a game of chess, one move at a time. North Korea doesn't even really have that option since it only has one direction to go in and there's no leeway. Iran is the greater threat over the long term because the Middle East is a much less stable region and if WW3 starts it's going to start there. The Korean peninsula is boring, nothing interesting has happened there for 50 years and it's not going to any time soon, and even if it did, America's peace of mind is not worth sacrificing South Korea by starting an unnecessary war, even if the latter would actually help anything.

I completely disagree. Predictions about North Korea's timetable was already wrong once. They are ahead of schedule according to that prediction, and I would rather not take the gamble that they complete a weapon capable of hitting the mainland before we expect them to.

If our position is that North Korea must be prevented from developing a nuke and a reliable delivery system, the sooner we do something the better it is. Waiting around hoping the problem resolves itself is not the way to go.

What gives me pause is the guy living in the White House. I have serious doubts he can navigate a diplomatic situation of this magnitude in an acceptable manner.

Right now North Korea is coming off as that poser kid in high school that wants to be considered one of the "cool" kids or one of the bad asses when everyone knows they aren't even close to that.