Korea Situation

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

The US military is to keep China from expanding. Being dominated by China only makes sense in the same way that Prussia dominating Germany makes sense, it is Realpolitik.
But really Asian countries were allied to the United States for a reason.

[RedGuard]

do any of you believe its possible to reunite Korea diplomatically? Im sure the Kim dynasty would have to end for that to happen, but do you guys thinks its possible without a war? Korea united would be an economic powerhouse. Supposedly the north is sitting on 10 trillion dollars worth of rare minerals.

[ByzantinePowerGame]

do any of you believe its possible to reunite Korea diplomatically? Im sure the Kim dynasty would have to end for that to happen, but do you guys thinks its possible without a war? Korea united would be an economic powerhouse. Supposedly the north is sitting on 10 trillion dollars worth of rare minerals.

Korea united would be an absolute basketcase.

Consider how much of a problem it was for the unified Germany to get the portion that was formerly DDR up to par in regards to infrastructure and development with the rest... BRD was about 4x greater than DDR in GDP and economic power. ROK is about 10-12x greater than DPRK in terms of GDP and economic power. The disparity between North and South is so staggering that it would wreck ROK's economy to try to develop DPRK to ROK standards. South Koreans are already some of the most indebted people in the world and their nation's economy is in a very precarious position.

If I were one of the leaders of South Korea, I would not want to unify with North Korea nor absorb them in any manner. The only reasons I would want to consider unification would be cultural, certainly not economic because economics dictates keeping DPRK out of ROK.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

do any of you believe its possible to reunite Korea diplomatically? Im sure the Kim dynasty would have to end for that to happen, but do you guys thinks its possible without a war? Korea united would be an economic powerhouse. Supposedly the north is sitting on 10 trillion dollars worth of rare minerals.

It's basically impossible. Annexing North Korea would probably be extremely costly for South Korea. They have no efficient way of grabbing the territory or administrating it. That is basically the main reason that their politicians don't push for it. Also because South Korean society is terrified of a war actually breaking out.

[Marcus Aemilius Lepidus]

Korea united would be an absolute basketcase.

Consider how much of a problem it was for the unified Germany to get the portion that was formerly DDR up to par in regards to infrastructure and development with the rest... BRD was about 4x greater than DDR in GDP and economic power. ROK is about 10-12x greater than DPRK in terms of GDP and economic power. The disparity between North and South is so staggering that it would wreck ROK's economy to try to develop DPRK to ROK standards. South Koreans are already some of the most indebted people in the world and their nation's economy is in a very precarious position.

If I were one of the leaders of South Korea, I would not want to unify with North Korea nor absorb them in any manner. The only reasons I would want to consider unification would be cultural, certainly not economic because economics dictates keeping DPRK out of ROK.

The problems of the unification of Germany have little to do with the infastructure of the GDR. They had huge chunks of industry which was en par with the west, especially in the metal sector. To survive they should have been propably privatizised, something that the Kohl-government failed to do. What happend was that companies from the west bought up GDR companies for pretty much nothing, took machines and material and bankrupted those companies. Those things happend on all sectors of life from industry to football. The people of the GDR had to learn capitalism the hard way. Thats why the unification failed on the economic terms. The koreans pay academics very well to study the mistakes of the Kohl-government to avoid them in case a unification should happen.

And in regards of Korea, people underestimate how much the Koreans might empower themself. I wrote it earlier in this thread and it was pretty much ignored, but the North was economically stronger than the South until the late 80s. The South was a dictatorship and the time and the last president who was deposed last fall, was his daughter. Within less than 20 years the South modernized stronger than any other country in the world. The situation in the north is actually a mess because our own policies. We sanctioned and isolated that country because we wanted to get rid of communism there and they reacted even harsher. Instead of surrendering they discipline their own people in the most cruel ways. I always wonder if it had to come to this if we would just let them develop a communism light like China.

[Love Mountain]

There's always a chance that the Kim regime might collapse and that the power structure will be open to negotiations. IMO, the best possible scenario is that N.Korea's leadership gets international amnesty for all crimes in return for handing over power to South Korea. Everybody wins.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

More likely the personnel of the DPRK regime would find amnesty in China.

[caratacus]

There was a lot of talk yesterday about a new avenue of negotiation between the two Korea's after the election of Moon Jae‑in. That possibly this could even result in direct talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. China and the US signed a new trade agreement supposedly paving the way for better cooperation on solving the nuclear issue.

Then this morning, North Korea fires their sixth test rocket in the Sea of Japan. Just seems like so much more hyperbole to me! Unlike in previous years, North Korea doesn't want to negotiate anything.

North Korea carries out new ballistic missile test
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39911530

North Korea fires missile days after new South Korea leader pledges dialogue
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-no...-idUSKBN1890UO

[hellheaven1987]

Negotiation would go no where anyway, since neither side can back down its terms.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Any South Korean politician claiming that they can solve the DPRK issue with negotiation is either acting on their own fear or playing on the fears of the populace or extremely naive. This is literally impossible to accomplish without threats of imminent death from somebody. I don't even know if nuclear devastation would necessarily create the required response from the DPRK.

[ggsimmonds]

Sometimes I wonder if NK is just...stupid.

"Momentum," for lack of a better term, is on their side. There were indications that China may not be committed to applying pressure, Trump has other things on his plate, and SK just elected a can't-we-be-friends president.

NK could have sat tight and quietly added to their arsenal, but instead they use the slack to meaninglessly bomb the Sea of Japan...again.

Wouldn't it be better to string people along on the idea of engaging in talks? Instead they decided nah, lets kill some jellyfish

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

I guess Mao Zedong was right, the nuke is a paper tiger. So too are those who rely on it, or I would assume.

[hellheaven1987]

Sometimes I wonder if NK is just...stupid.

"Momentum," for lack of a better term, is on their side. There were indications that China may not be committed to applying pressure, Trump has other things on his plate, and SK just elected a can't-we-be-friends president.

NK could have sat tight and quietly added to their arsenal, but instead they use the slack to meaninglessly bomb the Sea of Japan...again.

Wouldn't it be better to string people along on the idea of engaging in talks? Instead they decided nah, lets kill some jellyfish

Talk is waste of time anyway, since no one would agree Best Korea's terms and hence forces Best Korea to develop nuke.

[AqD]

what's to talk about?

Kim is doing fine.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Thinking about this why didn't we deal with North Korea during the 1990's when China was less militarily capable, when North Korea did not have as advanced missiles, when Boris Yeltsin was president of Russia and when the Asian countries were not so reliant on the Chinese economy.
We could have done this right after Operation Desert Storm and even though George H.W. Bush felt the unpopularity of the Gulf War it isn't like he was going to be re-elected, so why not wipe out North Korea as well? Or hell why didn't Bill Clinton flex his muscle? He could have made it coincide with the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis to really make a show of it. Maybe it isn't wise to mix issues but I bet an invasion of the DPRK would have been sufficient as a bargaining chip to make China back down from the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis.

I actually looked up this crisis on Wikipedia and this is what I found:
"The U.S. government responded by staging the biggest display of American military might in Asia since the Vietnam War.^[4] President Clinton ordered additional ships into the region in March 1996.^[5] Two aircraft carrier battle groups, Carrier Group Seven centered on USS Nimitz, and Carrier Group Five centered on USS Independence, were present in the region^[6] as well as the amphibious assault ship USS Belleau Wood.^[7] The Nimitz and her battle group and the Belleau Wood sailed through the Taiwan Strait, while the Independence did not.^[8] The crisis forced the Chinese leadership to acknowledge its inability to stop U.S. forces from coming to Taiwan's assistance.^[9] "

[Ukiah]

And in regards of Korea, people underestimate how much the Koreans might empower themself. I wrote it earlier in this thread and it was pretty much ignored, but the North was economically stronger than the South until the late 80s. The South was a dictatorship and the time and the last president who was deposed last fall, was his daughter. Within less than 20 years the South modernized stronger than any other country in the world. The situation in the north is actually a mess because our own policies. We sanctioned and isolated that country because we wanted to get rid of communism there and they reacted even harsher. Instead of surrendering they discipline their own people in the most cruel ways. I always wonder if it had to come to this if we would just let them develop a communism light like China.

Actually, South Korea overtook North Korea during the 1970s. The industrialization and the development began during the 1960s. The father of the last South Korean president was the military dictator during the 1960s and the 1970s. His name was Park Chung-hee. The military dictator of the 1980s was a different person named Chun Doo-hwan. Both of them took power through a coup d'état. North Korea's economy started to stagnate during the late 70s when it began to increase military spending heavily.

[Ukiah]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...=fb-share&_r=0

If Americans Can Find North Korea on a Map, They’re More Likely to Prefer Diplomacy

By KEVIN QUEALY MAY 14, 2017

When asked which policies the United States should pursue regarding North Korea, Americans diverged on their views depending in part on whether they knew where it was.

North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile on Sunday, and the White House called for “all nations” to put in stronger sanctions.

An experiment led by Kyle Dropp of Morning Consult from April 27-29, conducted at the request of The New York Times, shows that respondents who could correctly identify North Korea tended to view diplomatic and nonmilitary strategies more favorably than those who could not. These strategies included imposing further economic sanctions, increasing pressure on China to influence North Korea and conducting cyberattacks against military targets in North Korea.

They also viewed direct military engagement – in particular, sending ground troops – much less favorably than those who failed to locate North Korea.

The largest difference between the groups was the simplest: Those who could find North Korea were much more likely to disagree with the proposition that the United States should do nothing about North Korea......

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Probably cause Americans think that North Korea could actually hit the USA. In terms of missiles they don't really have anything that could reach the Pacific coast, or so I would think. The DPRK has pretty much no nuclear threat realistically since their chances of successfully launching a missile would be fairly low and much less one that could hit a target. The bigger threat is really if they drop sarin or some other chemical, perhaps even a biological weapon but for North Korea that last one might be a stretch.

[ggsimmonds]

Probably cause Americans think that North Korea could actually hit the USA. In terms of missiles they don't really have anything that could reach the Pacific coast, or so I would think. The DPRK has pretty much no nuclear threat realistically since their chances of successfully launching a missile would be fairly low and much less one that could hit a target. The bigger threat is really if they drop sarin or some other chemical, perhaps even a biological weapon but for North Korea that last one might be a stretch.

Based on their most recent test, they can hit...Guam.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

How was that determined? Based on like trajectory or distance or something?