ISIL War in Iraq and Syria II

[Principe Alessandro]

You’re essentially fear-mongering about Turkey potentially doing all these things under the assumption that it’s possible to recreate a territorial empire. Meanwhile, Russia, Iran, and Saudi are already doing all the things you are worried about. This isn’t about who controls the territorial Middle East. It’s about which local powers will get the biggest slice of the geopolitical pie as the west pulls back. Given a choice between Saudi, Iran, Russia, China.... I think one could do alot worse than Turkey, which historically has the strongest secular democratic tradition in the region.


The Kurdish issue is significant, which is why the US should not have pulled out of Northern Syria to make room for the Turkish invasion. However, that bridge is crossed. Russia clearly doesn’t care about the Kurds, as they endorsed the operation. I wouldn’t put any more faith in the other regional powers to safeguard Kurdish interests either. If the Turks manage to foil Russian interests to prop up Assad while at it, I say it’s a win for US and allied interests in the end. Time will tell.

I think that we are downplaying the deep and far reaching consequences of the relations between Erdogan and Putin. It isn't just a temporary tactical alliance in the context of the war in Syria. The two dictactors have already reached many agreements in the economic and the energy fields, recently Turkey began to purchase vital defense equipment from Russia not interoperable within the NATO defense structure.

For a long time Turkey has walked toward realigning its geopolitical stance and is poised to join Russia, China and Iran and to oppose US, Israel and the Gulf Monarchies.

The problem is that Trump is a weak buffon with no understanding of geostrategy, Putin is simply a better leader while Erdogan understands only brute force.

Turks aren't in Syria "to foil russian interests" because Putin and Erdogan have already reached an agreement about the future of Syria.

Inviato dal mio TA-1024 utilizzando Tapatalk

[Lord Thesaurian]

Iran is not an expansionist force. It hasn't been so in centuries. It seems to be content to control what is theirs, in a sort of conservative manner.

Perhaps prior to 1979. Also, you seem fixated on territorial possession. The post you quoted explains the context from which you seem to be removing what I said.

Saudi Arabia (seems to be) on the Us's leash. And in fact, its enmity with Iran is such, that they practically cancel each other out.

I certainly hope so.

Russia. FFS, Russia has been in the thick of it for decades, even as far back as the Soviet era. If it couldn't create an Empire that would "ravage the West" then, it won't do it now. It's ridiculous that the whole strategic planning (formation of NATO), the whole design of almost all western/US weapons was to stop the Soviet Main Battle tank "flood" into Europe. What a joke. The Soviet Union's plans were never to conquer the West. In fact they could have caused serious cracks in NATO back in 1987, when Greece and Soviet controlled Bulgaria allied against Turkey (another NATO member) but nothing happened. Yet people bought the whole "Red Alert" thing, and it seems they 're still buying it now.
There's no "Russian threat". There never was, there never will be.

There is a Russian threat to western political stability, security, and economic independence under Putin’s ambitions and actions. Again, with the territorial fixation. I’m not sure what any of this has to do with Turkey or Syria.

I think that we are downplaying the deep and far reaching consequences of the relations between Erdogan and Putin. It isn't just a temporary tactical alliance in the context of the war in Syria. The two dictactors have already reached many agreements in the economic and the energy fields, recently Turkey began to purchase vital defense equipment from Russia not interoperable within the NATO defense structure.


For a long time Turkey has walked toward realigning its geopolitical stance and is poised to join Russia, China and Iran and to oppose US, Israel and the Gulf Monarchies.


The problem is that Trump is a weak buffon with no understanding of geostrategy, Putin is simply a better leader while Erdogan understands only brute force.


Turks aren't in Syria "to foil russian interests" because Putin and Erdogan have already reached an agreement about the future of Syria.


Inviato dal mio TA-1024 utilizzando Tapatalk

Perhaps. I agree Turkey isn’t invading Syria specifically to foil Russian interests. That doesn’t mean she won’t. I think Turkey’s geopolitical profile fits more closely with a middling power that plays the likes of Russia and the US against each other for her gain. It’s entirely premature and lacking precedent to assert that Turkey has thrown her lot in with the Russo-Chinese alignment, or that she would do so, to one side or the other.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...ssia-1.4045397

Trump’s corruption and incompetence removed the US from the equation. The variance of power between the remaining major actors in Northern Syria is lower by default.

[Cope]

Meanwhile in other and considerably funnier news, the Senator of South Carolina, Lindsey Graham, fell victim to Russian pranksters, who pretended to be the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs. In public, Graham appears to me the most vocal critic of the withdrawal from northern Syria, threatening Turkey with devastating sanctions, if she attacks the Kurds. In the call, however, Graham was very sympathetic to the Turkish concerns, called the Kurds a serious threat and severely condemned Obama's decision to cooperate with them. He essentially insisted on almost exclusively on the "S-400 vs F-35" issue. Crocodile tears.

Oh no, not the Russian trolls again!

[PointOfViewGun]

Iraqi Christian Foundation tweeted pointing out that Syrian Christians in northern Syria preferred Syrian government rule and that they were oppressed and forced war on them by YPG.

World Council of Armenians (Syriacs) also tweeted supporting USA's decision and blaming YPG on the escalation. From their release:

The PKK and the PYD/YPG Kurds, who control the SDF, are two sides of the same coin. The communist ideology and violent nature of these nationalist organizations discredit democratic and liberal values. These ‘heroes’ have oppressed vulnerable Arameans, taken their innocent lives, Kurdified their lands and still use a tiny Christian group as their mouthpiece to represent Kurdish interests. The resentment against the YPG among the locals is prevalent, yet underreported. In due time, their authoritarian governance would likely lead to an ISIS 2.0 among the local Arabs, who outnumber the Kurds, mainly among Arab nationalists and among conservative Arab and Kurdish Muslims.

Unlike the Aramean Christians and Yazidis, the YPG Kurds received protection and huge amounts of money, arms and airpower from America to defeat ISIS. The Kurds should always remain grateful to America, which never promised them an eternal partnership. The YPG Kurds should have used their privileged position to focus on Syria’s unity and strike a peace deal with Syria and/or Turkey. In particular because they should have known that America would never sacrifice its relations with a fellow state, huge trade partner and established NATO ally for a rather impulsive non-state actor whose mother organization after all is officially designated by the U.S.A. as a terrorist organization.

Meanwhile, in response to the Turkish operation, YPG have been shelling border Turkish towns indiscriminately, which in turn caused civilian casualties that include children.

Meanwhile in other and considerably funnier news, the Senator of South Carolina, Lindsey Graham, fell victim to Russian pranksters, who pretended to be the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs. In public, Graham appears to me the most vocal critic of the withdrawal from northern Syria, threatening Turkey with devastating sanctions, if she attacks the Kurds. In the call, however, Graham was very sympathetic to the Turkish concerns, called the Kurds a serious threat and severely condemned Obama's decision to cooperate with them. He essentially insisted on almost exclusively on the "S-400 vs F-35" issue. Crocodile tears.

Yet, Graham was the guy who got the defense minister of USA to admit that PKK and YPG were closely related in a congressional questioning. His current objection to Turkey's action is mind boggling.

[Exarch]

The only oil rich area we could speak of that falls under the buffer zone is the Suwayda oil field.

Turkey controls the dams upstream from those Syrian territories; all they have to do is let out some more water and those regions will become as lush and green as lebanon.
That is, unless the syrian arabs want to bite the ottoman hand, in which case the tap gets turned off.

[Vanoi]

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-s...-france-syria/

EU sanctions are on the table. A weapons embargo would be a decent move.

[PointOfViewGun]

From Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, dated February 13, 2018:

Russia and Iran are planning for a long-term presence, securing military basing rights and contracts for reconstruction and oil and gas exploitation. Iran is also seeking to establish a land corridor from Iran through Syria to Lebanon. The Kurdish People’s Protection Unit—the Syrian militia of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)—probably will seek some form of autonomy but will face resistance from Russia, Iran, and Turkey.

Kurdish People’s Protection Unit is what we call YPG.

[Vanoi]

You're trying really hard but the YPG isnt a Syrian militia of the PKK nor is the YPG or PYD listed as a terror group.

[Tureuki]

Kurds are better than us in propaganda, i gotta give them a round of applause on that. Bringing forward the "they are attacking Christians" card to incite reaction in the west. Somehow making the west believe that due to a few Turkish shells ISIS militants will escape the prisons, i mean who CANNOT see that this is just a insidious way of saying "we will set them free if you don't fight for us," but people buy it, they buy whatever the freedom fighter angels say. Next, i expect some unsuspicious urban bombings, "look, because of the Turks, ISIS has resurfaced, in just 2 days "

Omg nobody is trying hard, It is YOUR GUYS that repeatedly acknowlodged that fact, either clearly or implicitly.

What more proof you want other than this guy anyway?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazlum_Kobane

[Vanoi]

Kurds are better than us in propaganda, i gotta give them a round of applause on that. Bringing forward the "they are attacking Christians" card to incite reaction in the west. Somehow making the west believe that due to a few Turkish shells ISIS militants will escape the prisons, i mean who CANNOT see that this is just a insidious way of saying "we will set them free if you don't fight for us," but people buy it, they buy whatever the freedom fighter angels say. Next, i expect some unsuspicious urban bombings, "look, because of the Turks, ISIS has resurfaced, in just 2 days "

Well the Syraic Military Council are composed of Christians and you are attacking them. A few Turkish shells landing near an ISIS prison should be a concern but i do realize Turkey doesn't consider ISIS to be a threat so i doubt they'd care if they ended up hitting it anyways.

[PointOfViewGun]

You're trying really hard but the YPG isnt a Syrian militia of the PKK nor is the YPG or PYD listed as a terror group.

It wasn't really that hard to post the assessment of the US Intelligence Community by the director of National Intelligence, Daniel R. Coats.

[Lord Thesaurian]

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Kurdish militias start executing ISIL prisoners, rather than risk letting the guys they fought for years and who killed their friends escape. It’s human nature. Can’t say I would blame them.

[Vanoi]

It wasn't really that hard to post the assessment of the US Intelligence Community by the director of National Intelligence, Daniel R. Coats.

Cool. Is the YPG or PYD listed as a terror organization now?

[Tureuki]

Execution would be more honorable, they threaten everyone that they would unleash them.

Your country wouldn't even list the PKK as a terrorist organization if the government back in its time was as "unloyal" as this one. It's not the deeds or connections that puts anyone into that list, it's all politics. At least the intelligence reports are more honest.

[Kyriakos]

Turkey controls the dams upstream from those Syrian territories; all they have to do is let out some more water and those regions will become as lush and green as lebanon.
That is, unless the syrian arabs want to bite the ottoman hand, in which case the tap gets turned off.

I find it incredible just how shortsighted, deluded (and beyond ludicrously at this point megalomanic) Erdogan and his goons are. It is extremely dangerous a game; Turkey won't be allowed to control oil fields and water sources, it isn't some major power regardless of the mass delusion there. This isn't just over-extending or over playing one's hand - it is on the level of a farce to think such a power grab will be left unchecked by actual major powers (US, Russia and who knows who else).
It is funny, because up to the rise of Erdogan, Turkey was the same thing as now in reality, but certainly was far more cautious and self-preserving. Now they may as well declare war on France - reality is no longer a concern.

[PointOfViewGun]

Cool. Is the YPG or PYD listed as a terror organization now?

This is the part where you admit that you were flat out wrong. An apology would go well as well.

[Vanoi]

This is the part where you admit that you were flat out wrong. An apology would go well as well.

Lol what was i wrong about? Are you now really claiming the YPG is the PKK? And i'll ask again. Is the YPG or PYD listed as a terror group?

Your country wouldn't even list the PKK as a terrorist organization if the government back in its time was as "unloyal" as this one. It's not the deeds or connections that puts anyone into that list, it's all politics. At least the intelligence reports are more honest.

If politics determined who got on that list there'd be a lot more terror groups listed. Hell, the US doesn't even list the Taliban as a terror group.

At the end of the day you and Seth are trying to paint the YPG as no different as the PKK or even outright trying to claim they are the PKK. You know this isn't true but you need to justify the invasion even if there's no need for it. Gotta get better at the propaganda.

[Abdülmecid I]

I find it incredible just how shortsighted, deluded (and beyond ludicrously at this point megalomanic) Erdogan and his goons are. It is extremely dangerous a game; Turkey won't be allowed to control oil fields and water sources, it isn't some major power regardless of the mass delusion there. This isn't just over-extending or over playing one's hand - it is on the level of a farce to think such a power grab will be left unchecked by actual major powers (US, Russia and who knows who else).

As it has been explained above, there are no important oil fields in northern Syria. Even before the civil war, Syria was never a serious exporter of oil. Not sure what you mean by water resources. Turkey has been controlling 90% of Euphrates' water flow since her establishment and has constructed the major hydroelectric Atatürk dam in 1992. This is not about natural resources, neither for the Turks nor for the Americans. Eastern Syria is poorer in comparison to the coast and urban centers of the west and, even among Syrians, their eastern compatriots are stereotypically mocked as backwards and impoverished. Finally, Turkey is a major regional power, as the richest (twelfth in the globe) and most populous country in the Near East. Trump ditching the Syrian Kurds is the clear and unambiguous result of Turkey's significance for the maintenance of the American sphere of influence in the region. I keep hearing prophecies about the imminent doom of Turkey, but they have so far failed to materialise, perhaps because they are based on bias and not tangible data.

[Vanoi]

There's no evidence the YPG is the PKK. Another thing is the simple fact the PKK is known to target civilians which got them labeled as a terror group in the first place.

[alhoon]

Turkey's treatment of Gulenists, Iran's diplomats in the world and similar have no relation with the ISIS war in Iraq and Syria or even with the ongoing operation of the Turkish military against the Kurdish militias. Please respect the topic and if you want to discuss Turkey's internal policies, foreign agenda and policies or both, please create a relevant thread in the academy. Same applies for discussing Iran. You can discuss these two countries and their agendas as far as they are part of the topic in this thread.