Turkish provocations against Greece: Simply big talk?

[ioannis76]

http://www.ekathimerini.com/214420/a...ek-sovereignty

In another thread there was an interesting discussion regarding Erdogan's aggressive comments. It appears that there is a competition among turkish politicians regarding who is the bigger man, and who is going to take more land from Greece. The whole thing would be funny, much like listening to teenagers boasting in a cafeteria, if we were not talking about the avant garde of the turkish political life.
Thus, we very recently had the statement of a certain Mr. Tanju Oztzan (I hope the spelling is correct), who said that he would "nail the Turkish flag in the Greek islands (18 islands and 2 islets), and send the Greek flag back to Greece by courier"

http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/201...m-the-islands/

The interesting bit here, is that this man is not a member of the turkish government, but an MP of the biggest party of the opposition.
I guess he will try to get on a boat full of refugees and pretend to be one himself in order to accomplish this great deed.

Do you believe that all this big talk will manifest into something tangible, or is this just the usual stuff, ie turkish politicians behaving like teenagers from the safety of their offices?

[Abdülmecid I]

Thread re-opened, as a new, English-speaking source has been added. However, please be advised that, given the tendancy of previous similarly themed threads of being derailed into flaiming and irrelevant historical debates, any violation of the Terms of Service will probably lead to infractions and the permanent closure of the thread.

[PointOfViewGun]

Since when is a blog post as amateur as that is a good basis for discussion? The link has the same constructive value of a Facebook post...

Are we also to open a thread every time a Greek politician says something remotely sounding nationalist about Turkey? There are plenty of those going around too.

By the way, one of the islands in question is Marathi. The text from the agreement between Turkey and Italy from 1932:

Article 1

The Italian Government recognises the sovereignty of Turkey over the following islets:

Volo (Gatal-Ada), Ochendra(Uvendire), Fournachia (Furnakya), Kato Volo (Katovolo), Prassoudi (Prasudi) (soyth-east of Catovolo). The islets of Tchatallota, Pighi, Nissi-Tis-Pighi, Agricelia reef, Proussecliss (rock), Pano Makri, Kato Makri(including the rocks), Marathi, Roccie Voutzaky (Rocci Vutchaki), Dacia (Dasya), Nissi-Tis Dacia, Prassoudi (north of Dacia), Alimentarya (Alimentaria), Caravola (Karavola).

[Alastor]

Since when is a blog post as amateur as that is a good basis for discussion? The link has the same constructive value of a Facebook post...

In that I would be inclined to respond since CNN, BBC and all major media outlets openly threw their lot with certain political camps and completely discredited themselves(see US elections, Brexit etc).

There will be no war, Turkey is not stupid. Turkey smells weakness and is trying to take advantage, nothing surprising here. It's how politics work. But a war will not be in their advantage. There are other ways.

[PointOfViewGun]

In that I would be inclined to respond since CNN, BBC and all major media outlets openly threw their lot with certain political camps and completely discredited themselves(see US elections, Brexit etc).

That doesn't discredit them in any way, or give credit to half-assed blogs like the one we're dealing with right now.

[Akrotatos]

My guess is that Turkish MPs try not to let Erdogan take over the nationalist agenda as he already has the religious one. It IS telling of how unreliable our "allies" and "friends" are when an EU and NATO country is faced with such aggression and provocation and they pretend they don't hear a thing.

[ioannis76]

The threats seem to escalate. Originally, we had Erdogan being Erdogan. Then it escalated, because there was a written question in the turkish parliament, and it received a written reply regarding the ownership of the islands. I am not sure if that written question originated from the political party to which Oztcan belongs, but it makes little difference.
In theory, he could do what he says, by means of masquerading as a refugee. However, what will happen if he is caught in the act? Even this Greek government will have to detain him. Will he be detained for a few hours, and then return to Turkey a "hero"? Perhaps this is his intention, but things like this could get out of hand really fast.
Needless to say that, now that he said what he intends to do, if he doesn't deliver, he will look ridiculous, even to his own voters.

[Akrotatos]

He doesn't need to pose as a refugee, all he needs is a boat. Do you think the Greek coast guard can guard every rock on this ridiculous sea?

Prediction: Turkey will escalate until we make a stupid response and they get the chance to "grey out" another chunk of the Aegean.

[Dromikaites]

The most idiotic and suicidal thing a Turkish government could do is to start a war with Greece. Especially in the current West-European context where the far right's popularity is on the rise and with Donald Trump in charge of the strongest military in the world.

The treaty of Sevres might look like an excellent deal for Turkey at the end of such war.

[Akrotatos]

The most idiotic and suicidal thing a Turkish government could do is to start a war with Greece. Especially in the current West-European context where the far right's popularity is on the rise and with Donald Trump in charge of the strongest military in the world.

The treaty of Sevres might look like an excellent deal for Turkey at the end of such war.

No war obviously but a military crisis? Easily. Seriously this is what happened in 1996:

1. Turkish ship runs ashore at Imia and governments disagree over salvage rights since both claim the rock (I won't call it an island it's as big as a football field).
2. Media picks up the story and the mayor of the island next to Imia goes there and raises a Greek flag
3. Turkish journalists go there, remove the Greek flag, put a Turkish one and broadcast the whole thing live.
4. Greek navy puts again the Greek flag up.
5. Both countries put their military forces on alert.
6. Greek commandos land on the rock to guard the flag.
7. Turkish commandos land on the rock next to it.
8. Greek helicopter patrolling the area finds the commandos and later crushes. Officially it is still considered and accident btw and 3 men died.
9. By this point we are literally one wrong move before war and the Americans, realising we will jeopardise the whole of NATO and their policies in Eastern Med over two rocks an a flag step in and defuse the situation.

It can easily happen again and Greece is much weaker and diplomatically isolated than that time.

Plus Turkey has an actual dictator in charge who has already proved to be capable of stupid moves when it suits his political agenda with complete disregard of long-term geopolitical consequences (Gaza flotilla, supporting Jihadists in Syria, restarting a full blown war with PKK, shooting down a Syrian jet, shooting down a Russian jet, invading Syria etc. etc. etc. )

Edit:Turkey is both important militarily (next to Iran, Iraq & Syria, close to Caucasus, controlling the Bosporus) and economically (a population of 70 million just waiting to buy western stuff). Compared to that, Greece can go f- itself according to western elites.

[Kyriakos]

The most idiotic and suicidal thing a Turkish government could do is to start a war with Greece. Especially in the current West-European context where the far right's popularity is on the rise and with Donald Trump in charge of the strongest military in the world.

The treaty of Sevres might look like an excellent deal for Turkey at the end of such war.

Unfortunately, Turkey is the sort of country/amalgam which inherently needs this kind of exporting of its crisis, so as for the leading caste there to survive a bit longer. That said, at this particular time, with so many events going on, and Turkey being on the news (unlike in 1996 when virtually no one in west Europe even heard about Imia or such things) i also am of the view that any move of escalation and war by Turkey will ultimately result in its own collapse. You can't seriously act like Turkey/Erdogan does when you are perpetually on the brink of civil war. That is called asking for it.

Ultimately, yeah, i think this is what will happen. Probably about time too, cause i am bored of having such a ludicrously militaristic neighbour country, and i am sure many turkish people also don't like their society either (i can accept that regular turkish people have to survive, and mean well for their own, it is basic human nature, but if they make themselves blind to following the whims of goon dictators then part of the blame is on them as well imo).

[ioannis76]

It's interesting that some people will choose to haggle over details ratherthan address the issue itself.
Anyway, here is another link, from the English version of Kathimerini (a newspaper), saying the same thing, and giving some more information:

http://www.ekathimerini.com/214420/a...ek-sovereignty

“If they [Turkey] threaten our country, they will meet with our response and they will know that we shall not make concessions in the name of diplomacy on issues of national sovereignty,” Kammenos said in a radio interview Thursday, referring to recent remarks by Erdogan questioning the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne that set the borders between Greece and Turkey, as well as by other Turkish politicians who have disputed Greek sovereignty over a string of islets in the eastern Aegean.

The remarks by Kammenos, the leader of junior coalition partner Independent Greeks, followed strong statements by Turkey’s Deputy Parliament Speaker Tugrul Turkes, who described his country as the guarantor power of the whole of Cyprus, rather than just the breakaway state in the north, while a lawmaker of the opposition CHP, Tanju Ozcan, upped the ante even further, saying he would raise the Turkish flag on 18 Greek islands.
“I will go to the islands and if need be I myself will raise the Turkish flag. Then I will fold the Greek one and send it to the Greek government with a courier,” he told the Turkish Parliament.

I consider Kammenos a huge political clown and the statement quite vague. Unless of course he is being deliberately vague because he does not want to expose his plan for action (if he has one at all).

7. Turkish commandos land on the rock next to it.

Turkish commandos did this, because the then government of the big Europhile socialist Simitis ordered that west Imia (the second islet) be left without any garrison whatsoever. The plan was to mutually evacuate the area, so it was officially "greyed out" from that point onward. The situation is similar in some ways (a flag game), but also different. Unless this Ozcan is a complete joke, he will attempt to make good on his word. If he does, is there going to be an agreement with Erdogan, or will he act on his own/after an agreement with his own party? Such actions can easily backfire (if he is captured) or escalate. I would like to remind the forum members that for such an act (taking down the flag) a Greek-Cupriot was murdered in cold blood back in 1996, by an official of Denktash's regime. What if the MP were to perish in the attempt?

[PointOfViewGun]

It's interesting that some people will choose to haggle over details ratherthan address the issue itself.
Anyway, here is another link, from the English version of Kathimerini (a newspaper), saying the same thing, and giving some more information:

http://www.ekathimerini.com/214420/a...ek-sovereignty

I consider Kammenos a huge political clown and the statement quite vague. Unless of course he is being deliberately vague because he does not want to expose his plan for action (if he has one at all).

Turkish commandos did this, because the then government of the big Europhile socialist Simitis ordered that west Imia (the second islet) be left without any garrison whatsoever. The plan was to mutually evacuate the area, so it was officially "greyed out" from that point onward. The situation is similar in some ways (a flag game), but also different. Unless this Ozcan is a complete joke, he will attempt to make good on his word. If he does, is there going to be an agreement with Erdogan, or will he act on his own/after an agreement with his own party? Such actions can easily backfire (if he is captured) or escalate. I would like to remind the forum members that for such an act (taking down the flag) a Greek-Cupriot was murdered in cold blood back in 1996, by an official of Denktash's regime. What if the MP were to perish in the attempt?

What if the island he goes to do this is indeed Turkish? What then?

[ioannis76]

What if the island he goes to do this is indeed Turkish? What then?

Which island would you have in mind? Could you give me an example?

[PointOfViewGun]

Which island would you have in mind? Could you give me an example?

I already have, but, according to you I was haggling over details... The island in question was Marathi as I said before.

[ioannis76]

I already have, but, according to you I was haggling over details... The island in question was Marathi as I said before.

The island you mentioned is this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathos_Island
It is an inhabited Greek island. I am afraid Turkey cannot have it. Something doesn't just become turkish because it's near Turkey. This is exactly what Greeks mean when they speak about turkish aggression.

You brought a link with what is supposed to be an Italian-Turkish agreement of 1932 handing sovereignty of the Imia islets (among other islands and islets, one of which is the island you mentioned).
How could Italy possibly hand over the islands to Turkey in 1932, and then hand over the islands to Greece in 1947?

The Italo-Turkish Agreements of January 1932 and the additional protocol of 28.12.1932, on the basis of which the territorial waters of the two countries between the coast of Asia Minor and the Dodecanese islands were defined. It should be stressed that the Imia islets were ceded to Italy by the Treaty of Lausanne, which is easily confirmed by the fact that in Point 30 of the additional Protocol, which was signed on 28.12.1932, they are referred to as one of the points under Italian sovereignty from which the median line dividing the territorial waters between Italy and Turkey shall be calculated.
Under the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty (Article 14), sovereignty of the Dodecanese including the Imia islets was ceded by Italy to Greece. Greece thus succeeded Italy as sovereign state over the Dodecanese.

http://www.mfa.gr/en/issues-of-greek...sh-claims.html

And how could Turkey of 1947 possibly accept such a scam (for lack of a better term?). Italy gives to Greece the islands that it previously gave to Turkey.
Obviously it didn't.
The Process Verbal of December 1932 stated that:

The supplementary agreement fixes 37 pairs of reference points between which the maritime boundary dividing Turkish and Italian territory (which at that time included the Dodecanese islands) was drawn. In the above Proces Verbal it was spelled out precisely to which state the majority of the remaining islets belong, "...ne faisant l' objet d' aucune contestation". Included are the "Kardak islets", which are described as belonging to Italy, with the boundary line between Italian and Turkish territorial waters "a moitie distance entre Kardak (Rks) et Kato I (Anatolia)", that is falling midway between the Kardak islets and the island of Kato, Anatolia. Thus, Italian sovereignty over the Imia islets was confirmed by the explicit reference made to them in the text itself.

http://www.hri.org/MFA/thesis/spring97/two_islets.html

Otherwise, we have to accept that either Italy scammed both countries, giving the islands first to Turkey and then to Greece (and nobody noticed), or that the islands were turkish and Greeks somehow went there and illegally occupied them, and from 1947 to 1995 nobody in Turkey noticed (LOL).
I am glad that you brought this up, because such leaps of logic are quite indicative of turkish foreign policy.

[pajomife]

The Turks just have to open the doors and millions of refugees will flood the Greeks Islands, then they will give it for free.

[Alastor]

The Turks just have to open the doors and millions of refugees will flood the Greeks Islands, then they will give it for free.

Yeah, because that didn't already happen last year...

[Tureuki]

That was a fraction. 3 million more on the wait. I hope they let them go. With their current birth rate there will be some 10 million of them in following decades.

[ioannis76]

I base my entire premise on an actual international agreement

No you're not. What you are presenting is not what the agreement states. The agreement of 1932 states that Imia remain with Italy, and your link claims that they were given to Turkey.
It is logically IMPOSSIBLE that Italy would give the islands to Turkey, and 15 years later would give THE SAME islands to Greece.
And even, by some miracle this could happen, Turkey simply "forgot" about these islands for approximately 50 years. Such things simply CANNOT happen.