Donald's First 100 Days and Before

[Love Mountain]

Every economist will also gladly you tell you that Trade is not a zero-sum game, but there's a difference between exploitation like in colonial times and mutual trade like between Taiwan and China.

Interesting phenomena to note is the car industry. In the 80s Japanese automakers had a limit on how many cars they could import into America. As a response they opened up factories in USA and focused on Luxury brands instead. Both strategies were a phenomenal success and in some way these Japanese giants still "dominate" the auto industry.

And btw, Germany's inflationary spiral was nowhere near as damaging as the following German deflation. Which was much deeper and had far-more reaching consequences, but that part of history isn't sexy which is why nobody mentions it.

[Princeps]

Did you check the chart on my link?

From a wholesale price index of 1 in 1914.
3.6 in 1919
12.6 in 1921
36.7 in 1922 (January)
100.6 in July 1922
2785 in Jan 1923
194,000 in July 1923
726,000,000,000 in Nov 1923

This is clear exponential effect and it starts from 1914.
You are focusing only on the last year because it gets bigger, but that's what exponents do. The trend was clear far before that.

You can't say ''durr the problems started in 1923''. That's just false and shortsighted.

If you actually read the chart, you'll see that the German mark stabilized in 1920 to 1921.

The German state subsequently started to purchase foreign hard currency with marks, which created a ton of inflation. This was done due to the persistent threat of invasion by the French. Once the French carried out the threat, German inflation skyrocketed into actual hyperinflation due to the loss of rhinelands productive enterprises.

Your argument is that there was some magic exponential effect independent of post war policy decisions and events. This is BS.

The German wartime finances were poorly organized. The German empire was a decentralized federation of imperial states that controlled direct taxation on their lands. To finance the war, the german empire resorted to borrowing and money printing. In the UK and America this wasn't a problem, but Germany had less sophisticated financial markets that proved incapable of absorbing such amounts of extra liquidity and so germany relied more on short term debt, which would be repaid after the war was over with French and Russian war indemnities. This apparently came back to bite germany once the war was over.

Even so, it's difficult to see how any of this is comparable to America's present situation.

[Basil II the B.S]

If you actually read the chart, you'll see that the German mark stabilized in 1920 to 1921.

The German state subsequently started to purchase foreign hard currency with marks, which created a ton of inflation. This was done due to the persistent threat of invasion by the French. Once the French carried out the threat, German inflation skyrocketed into actual hyperinflation due to the loss of rhinelands productive enterprises.

Your argument is that there was some magic exponential effect independent of post war policy decisions and events. This is BS.

The German wartime finances were poorly organized. The German empire was a decentralized federation of imperial states that controlled direct taxation on their lands. To finance the war, the german empire resorted to borrowing and money printing. In the UK and America this wasn't a problem, but Germany had less sophisticated financial markets that proved incapable of absorbing such amounts of extra liquidity and so germany relied more on short term debt, which would be repaid after the war was over with French and Russian war indemnities. This apparently came back to bite germany once the war was over.

Did you even read my other post? I specifically listed 4 steps that contributed to the hyperinflation.

Even so, it's difficult to see how any of this is comparable to America's present situation.

The historical lesson is do not overprint currency. Which is my whole point from the beginning.

[Princeps]

Did you even read my other post? I specifically listed 4 steps that contributed to the hyperinflation.

No. To bring up the 1920s hyperinflation at all is absolutely ludicrous. It has no similarities at all, on any level whatsoever, to the current situation in the US.

Germany in 1920 had been recently defeated in a total war by a coalition of powers. The US is a world dominant super power that controls all the oceans in the world.
Germany was under a threat of invasion by its debtors, and it was so invaded. No power is capable of threatening the US.
German economy was toiling under the weight of severe indemnities as well as the damage from the war.

In general, there is really nothing mysterious about the hyperinflation. Some, like Niall Ferguson, argue that it was easily preventable and that the Germans deliberately destroyed their currency to undermine the reparations regime.

In general, if you look at the historical examples of hyperinflation, virtually every single one of them occurred in the aftermath or during a war or some other great calamity.

The US can easily control for excess liquidity. If excess liquidity starts to create inflationary pressure, the Treasury can issue bonds. These bonds will tie up excess liquidity into savings. Unlike German war debt, they are widely trusted, often long term and the US has never defaulted on them. The US doesn't ever need to default (unlike what Trump alleges) since the US can create dollars whenever it needs them.
There is always an incentive, if inflation is high, to purchase these bonds since the interest rate can be set at a higher level than inflation. The Federal Reserve can also expand reserve requirements, which tie up additional liquidity in the banks where they remain sitting in accounts, rather than being circulated in the economy. These processes create a stable currency which devalues slowly over the course of a century, enabling growth and business without disruptive inflation.

You have yet to identify the mechanism through which hyperinflation could even occur given the methods which the treasury and the federal reserve can control inflation.

The historical lesson is do not overprint currency. Which is my whole point from the beginning.

The US government isn't overprinting. Inflation is record low.

And like the Japanese Yen isn't a reserve currency and yet Japan is perfectly capable of using similar monetary policies.

Like seriously, your economics are completely detached from reality.

[fkizz]

Hyperinflation is a tad fearmongering, but doing QE after QE after QE after QE as the sole economic strategy is going to hurt and not solve problems.

Interesting phenomena to note is the car industry. In the 80s Japanese automakers had a limit on how many cars they could import into America. As a response they opened up factories in USA and focused on Luxury brands instead. Both strategies were a phenomenal success and in some way these Japanese giants still "dominate" the auto industry.

Fun fact: Toyota was once a textile manufacturer that exported silk as its main portfolio. It got massive (indirect) help from government under proteccionism of the said industry. After 25 years of failing to make it big in car industry, due to a sort of "Never ever give up" helped by industry proteccionism they could finally abandon the textile manufacturer to go to things such as the Lexus.

Another tale of "proteccionism hurting business" narrative becoming parody of itself.

[Basil II the B.S]

No. To bring up the 1920s hyperinflation at all is absolutely ludicrous. It has no similarities at all, on any level whatsoever, to the current situation in the US.

Germany in 1920 had been recently defeated in a total war by a coalition of powers. The US is a world dominant super power that controls all the oceans in the world.
Germany was under a threat of invasion by its debtors, and it was so invaded. No power is capable of threatening the US.
German economy was toiling under the weight of severe indemnities as well as the damage from the war.

In general, there is really nothing mysterious about the hyperinflation. Some, like Niall Ferguson, argue that it was easily preventable and that the Germans deliberately destroyed their currency to undermine the reparations regime.

In general, if you look at the historical examples of hyperinflation, virtually every single one of them occurred in the aftermath or during a war or some other great calamity.

The US can easily control for excess liquidity. If excess liquidity starts to create inflationary pressure, the Treasury can issue bonds. These bonds will tie up excess liquidity into savings. Unlike German war debt, they are widely trusted, often long term and the US has never defaulted on them. The US doesn't ever need to default (unlike what Trump alleges) since the US can create dollars whenever it needs them.
There is always an incentive, if inflation is high, to purchase these bonds since the interest rate can be set at a higher level than inflation. The Federal Reserve can also expand reserve requirements, which tie up additional liquidity in the banks where they remain sitting in accounts, rather than being circulated in the economy. These processes create a stable currency which devalues slowly over the course of a century, enabling growth and business without disruptive inflation.

You have yet to identify the mechanism through which hyperinflation could even occur given the methods which the treasury and the federal reserve can control inflation.

Good thing Trump doesn't want to start wars then, unlike Hillary. So he's the saviour of the US economy?

As for increasing interest rates to soak liquidity, once again do you have any idea of the current state of the US economy? The Fed has barely increased by a 0.25% in December, and in January markets were crashing already. It'll add another 0.25% this December, we'll see what happens. You are proposing much more significant increases, when the Fed is being extremely careful on that matter.

The US government isn't overprinting. Inflation is record low.

And like the Japanese Yen isn't a reserve currency and yet Japan is perfectly capable of using similar monetary policies.

Like seriously, your economics are completely detached from reality.

Japan went through something completely different called liquidity trap. Awful example.

Also please, you are defending the economic disaster of the establishment and calling me out of touch with reality. Nice projection.

[Love Mountain]

Even Japan's experience with a liquidity trap is nowhere near as bad as what the European periphery is going through. Plus, Bank of Japan and the Government has been criticized for not being bold enough and simply applying larger doses of the same medicine that has been proven to give minimal returns. See Bernanke's paper on the subject (irony).

[fkizz]

Even Japan's experience with a liquidity trap is nowhere near as bad as what the European periphery is going through. Plus, Bank of Japan and the Government has been criticized for not being bold enough and simply applying larger doses of the same medicine that has been proven to give minimal returns. See Bernanke's paper on the subject (irony).

Quantitative Easing as a long term strategy works as a sort of painkiller. Economic distress hurts less, but problems are still there, without courage to re-invent old solutions or try new things.

[Love Mountain]

QE is a bandage you use to combat minor cuts. Unfortunately, no matter how large of a bandage you put on a gaping wound, you will not stop the internal bleeding. At that point you're praying that the body somehow heals itself, or the patient will die from internal wounds that the bandage cannot fix. In the form of European economy, you've been poisoned, stabbed, and roasted. Putting massive amounts of bandages on that is not gonna cure you even if it does help.

Deep structural problems in the European economy need a serious treatment from numerous angles, including bandages.

1. European periphery is in ruins, and Germany gives no s. If the EU wants to treat the Euro like a Gold Standard then it better start giving it out.
2. EU cannot be export-driven. The key to EU's ails is historically weak domestic demand and the current aversion to deficit spending.
3. Migrant problem. There is a very simple solution. Instead of giving everyone handouts, put all of these migrants to work. New Deal type programs for European infrastructure projects will both put migrants and Europe's poor to work, as well as strengthen EU ties between each other.
4. Weak inflation. Points above also are connected to it. Putting all of these refugees to work, as well as Europe's unemployed will boost both inflation and domestic demand.

Unfortunately Europe lacks both the will and political structures to put this vision into reality. Thus we have the retarded situation we currently do. Which is a ticking time bomb. Austerity will not fix deficits, shrinking tax receipts will cause deficits no matter what Europe does, and there are rising energy prices to worry about as well. God forbid we spike to 100$+ per barrel again and this will put an even bigger hole in Europe's budget for no other reason than Saudi Arabia's mood that year. If by some miracle Europe survives all of this, the rise of right-wing parties is virtually assured considering how well they point to who the "traitors" are. And that will be a catastrophe for everyone including the European project.

Maybe not for EU-Russia relations, but I don't live in Russia or Europe so zero s given about that.

[Princeps]

Good thing Trump doesn't want to start wars then, unlike Hillary. So he's the saviour of the US economy?

As for increasing interest rates to soak liquidity, once again do you have any idea of the current state of the US economy? The Fed has barely increased by a 0.25% in December, and in January markets were crashing already. It'll add another 0.25% this December, we'll see what happens. You are proposing much more significant increases, when the Fed is being extremely careful on that matter.

I wouldn't support any interest rate hikes until inflation reaches some like 4 % at least.

[Love Mountain]

Our inflation rate is actually okay. It'd be nice if it was higher, but it's not too bad. The problems with the American economy is pretty much non-existent fiscal policy. And no, cutting taxes isn't expansionary it's just letting money go through your fingers.

[Papay]

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/11/28...hio-state.html

So a new terrorist attack occured in ohio university were a Somali immigrant injured 9 people before he was shot dead. The overwhelming majority of Americans dont know that their government bombs Somalia since 2006(10 years now!)and they will believe Breitbart and other "alternative" sites that the motivation of this terrorist was probably because he hated American freedom... Obama leaves a unique legacy with US army bombing 7 muslim countries in wars that have no end in site. Donald Trump probably will escalate these wars and the result will going to be more terrorist attacks. In my opinion there is no doubt that in the next terrorist attack with many victims, Donald Trump will start taking harsh measures targeting muslims in general. For me its not a matter of if but only when will this happen. It could be in one year, it could be in three years. The majority of indoctrinated Americans will support him, unfortunately, because they are misinformed and think that "muslims hate Americans because of their freedom and their whiteness"

Insufficient and there already are enough threads to discuss Trump's (presumed) policies. Hence merged hither. ~Iskar

[Diocle]

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/11/28...hio-state.html

So a new terrorist attack occured in ohio university were a Somali immigrant injured 9 people before he was shot dead. The overwhelming majority of Americans dont know that their government bombs Somalia since 2006(10 years now!)and they will believe Breitbart and other "alternative" sites that the motivation of this terrorist was probably because he hated American freedom... Obama leaves a unique legacy with US army bombing 7 muslim countries in wars that have no end in site. Donald Trump probably will escalate these wars and the result will going to be more terrorist attacks. In my opinion there is no doubt that in the next terrorist attack with many victims, Donald Trump will start taking harsh measures targeting muslims in general. For me its not a matter of if but only when will this happen. It could be in one year, it could be in three years. The majority of indoctrinated Americans will support him, unfortunately, because they are misinformed and think that "muslims hate Americans because of their freedom and their whiteness"

Papay, more than a post it looks like a poor screenplay for an ordinary Hollywood product.

[Papay]

Papay, more than a post it looks like a poor screenplay for an ordinary Hollywood product.

Ok. We will see when the next terrorist attacks US soil with 50-100 dead. To me this is inevitable. When this happens Alt-Right and various other nice people will press Trump to take measures...

[Napoleonic Bonapartism]

Just say this essay via reddit, Ur-Fascism, by Umberto Eco. It could not be more relevant if it tried (please read the whole thing before responding): http://www.nybooks.com/articles/1995/06/22/ur-fascism/

This is not because fascism contained in itself, so to speak in their quintessential state, all the elements of any later form of totalitarianism. On the contrary, fascism had no quintessence. Fascism was a fuzzy totalitarianism, a collage of different philosophical and political ideas, a beehive of contradictions. Can one conceive of a truly totalitarian movement that was able to combine monarchy with revolution, the Royal Army with Mussolini’s personal milizia, the grant of privileges to the Church with state education extolling violence, absolute state control with a free market? The Fascist Party was born boasting that it brought a revolutionary new order; but it was financed by the most conservative among the landowners who expected from it a counter-revolution. At its beginning fascism was republican. Yet it survived for twenty years proclaiming its loyalty to the royal family, while the Duce (the unchallenged Maximal Leader) was arm-in-arm with the King, to whom he also offered the title of Emperor. But when the King fired Mussolini in 1943, the party reappeared two months later, with German support, under the standard of a “social” republic, recycling its old revolutionary script, now enriched with almost Jacobin overtones.

[Phier]

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/11/28...hio-state.html

So a new terrorist attack occured in ohio university were a Somali immigrant injured 9 people before he was shot dead. The overwhelming majority of Americans dont know that their government bombs Somalia since 2006(10 years now!)and they will believe Breitbart and other "alternative" sites that the motivation of this terrorist was probably because he hated American freedom... Obama leaves a unique legacy with US army bombing 7 muslim countries in wars that have no end in site. Donald Trump probably will escalate these wars and the result will going to be more terrorist attacks. In my opinion there is no doubt that in the next terrorist attack with many victims, Donald Trump will start taking harsh measures targeting muslims in general. For me its not a matter of if but only when will this happen. It could be in one year, it could be in three years. The majority of indoctrinated Americans will support him, unfortunately, because they are misinformed and think that "muslims hate Americans because of their freedom and their whiteness"

Insufficient and there already are enough threads to discuss Trump's (presumed) policies. Hence merged hither. ~Iskar

Here is the hilarious thing, you may be right but it has very little to do with the right, its almost all the left. People are utterly sick of "lefts" policies, from PC to SJ to immigration. EVERYTHING lately done by the left looks more like a plot to promote the right. I've said this several times already in this forum. The left is doing everything it can to create a real right wing movement in Europe, even more than the US (had Clinton won we would have ended up there too).

Don't be looking for boogiemen on the right, look for the reason the right is becoming attractive.

[Papay]

So much white insecurity. Relax. White people are in control for 500 years. They wont be overthrown at least not soon

[alhoon]

Don't be looking for boogiemen on the right, look for the reason the right is becoming attractive.

You are right, to a degree, except one thing: Everything you label left is just the progressives of the left. PC, immigration, SJWs...
Since the right has the conservatives, people move to the right not that much because they want unrestricted free market, less regulations, a smaller social safety net - smaller taxes.

Now, after that semantics distinction to clear the left's good name from labeling democrats (a rightwing progressive party) as leftwings...
I agree with you that the democrats have been pushing onwards alienating large parts of the electorate. Their progressive agenda left many conservatives unsatisfied but everyone that disagreed was labeled an -obic idiot redneck that should burn in the atheist hell.
Sure, majorities support gay marriage, legalized marijuana, multiculturalism, religious tolerance... but someone could support gay marriage, abortions and legalization of marijuana and lo-and-behold, be against multiculturalism, dislike muslims and want to say "merry Christmas". That person would be so severely attacked, that will end up with the Republicans although he agrees with just half their agenda. Because the democrats would treat him as the enemy although he agrees with half their agenda.

[jockmcplop]

There are idiots on both sides unfortunately they always seem to have the loudest voices. Makes sense that with growing frustration at the status quo the biggest, loudest idiot of them all is going to be president.

[Inhuman One]

It's a curious thing that in many ways Trump embodies the stereotype that many people have of americans.