Austria presidential elections

[alhoon]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36351359

The gist: Amidst disillusionment with mainstream parties and anger over the immigrants given asylum, Austrian voters go to the polls today to elect the (largerly ceremonial) head of state after eliminating from the contest the main-stream candidates. One of the two remaining candidates is the far-right Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer. The other is an independent with the backing of the Greens, the professor Alexander Van der Bellen.
EU doesn't like either prospect, especially Hofer.

Now, my personal opinion on the matter:
Full disclosure: I don't know much about either candidate or the political situation in Austria.

- I don't like the far-right wings, I don't trust them.
But... from the few pieces I found in the article, Hofer although xenophobic doesn't sound the run-of-the-mill nationalist. He's against multiculturalism which is an acceptable position and he says that Brussels decisions do not control Austria... which I agree with.

- Whatever mr Hofer beliefs are, the rise of the far-right in Europe is of great concern. And his party sounds way less benign than he does.

- A victory for the Freedom party, although unlikely, would be taken as a moral victory among other far-right Euroskeptic xenophobes in Europe. And while I don't think Austria will start paramilitary squads to beat up immigrants, the "mild" form of xenophobia will actually boost moderately xenophobic people to try their own far-right parties.

EDIT: Van der Bellen narrowly won for ~30K votes.

[Dromikaites]

He is unlikely to win. If you take a look at the political platforms for the candidates ranked 3rd to 6th you will see Hofer is unlikely to get additional votes from there in the second tour.

On the other hand Van der Bellen is quite likely getting the Social-Democrats' vote (11.3%), most of the NOS votes (at least 12% of the 18.9% Irmgard Griss got) and at least half of the OVP votes (another 5.6% out of the 11.1% Andreas Khol got). That puts him at 50% already.

Given he has actually plenty of room to grow among the NOS and OVP voters while Hof cannot get almost anything from NOS, I wouldn't be too worried about Austria giving the World a second "great man" in less than 100 years.

[alhoon]

True enough. But... he doesn't sound too much like the previous great man. From what I read I would put him as right-wing, Euroskeptic. Not far-right \ nationalist \ immigrant-beater.

[Dromikaites]

True enough. But... he doesn't sound too much like the previous great man. From what I read I would put him as right-wing, Euroskeptic. Not far-right \ nationalist \ immigrant-beater.

He is not palatable for people who vote for the Social Democrats or NOS (liberals) and quite likely he raises a few eyebrows among the OVP voters (center-right). That is all what counts for the second tour: there is no pool of voters from where he could attract enough to get elected.

[Condottiere 40K]

Historically, Austrians aren't dangerous until they immigrate.

[alhoon]

Historically, they led the HRE for centuries...

[StarDreamer]

Since as you say it is a largely ceremonial position. I can see him being voted in sort of as a protest/warning that the people's concerns need to be taken seriously and that throwing around labels and buzzwords don't work.

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

Anti-Freedom Party demonstrators want an "open Austria"
This picture is just perfect.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36343623 interesting

[alhoon]

He is not palatable for people who vote for the Social Democrats or NOS (liberals) and quite likely he raises a few eyebrows among the OVP voters (center-right). That is all what counts for the second tour: there is no pool of voters from where he could attract enough to get elected.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36353200

He's at 50% with 98% of the votes counted... tied with the Green party guy.

[Dromikaites]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36353200

He's at 50% with 98% of the votes counted... tied with the Green party guy.

Well, so far my hypothesis seems confirmed: Van der Bellen got most of the votes from the other candidates' supporters. In most of the cases the candidate with "momentum" (the one who grows the most) wins. Of course Hofer could still win by a very narrow margin.

[Harith]

I actually think this is a good development. They complain about the status quo, so let them have a go at it and see how it turns out.

[Salvator]

As an Austrian I don't really support either of those (more on Hofer's side though), but after reading the BBC articles I was shocked in which way Norbert Hofer is being presented.
When I read "Xenophobia" or "gun loving" I can see which position BBC has taken on this matter. To be fair, Norbert Hofer is not against immigrants but intends to be more selective and be a bit stricter if they commit a crime, just as Switzerland is. On the otherhand he is a homophobe and no doubt about that. Which put a lot of votes in the hand of Van der Bellen.

Frankly, Austrians don't like changes and will never like them. If something is going to change Austrians will always be against it. That's why they vote for Van der Bellen, a Merkel lover and supporter of the European Union.
He even intends to give up our neutrality for the sake of benifiting the EU. This gives Hofer an edge as he will be trying to be more like Switzerland when it comes to referendums and such but still...
If Van der Bellen will be elected, which I do think will happen, nothing will change. Everything will continue on as nothing ever happened. Even the international Press will abruptly stop to talk about Austria.
In the other case Austria will gain a rather negative reputation internationally though with faster changes happening to the country.

[alhoon]

As an Austrian I don't really support either of those (more on Hofer's side though), but after reading the BBC articles I was shocked in which way Norbert Hofer is being presented.
When I read "Xenophobia" or "gun loving" I can see which position BBC has taken on this matter. To be fair, Norbert Hofer is not against immigrants but intends to be more selective and be a bit stricter if they commit a crime, just as Switzerland is. On the otherhand he is a homophobe and no doubt about that. Which put a lot of votes in the hand of Van der Bellen.

I was also surprised by the comments this man made. At least in the BBC article, he doesn't seem a xenophobe authoritarian, but a euroskeptic moderately xenophobic.

[Mithradates]

Come on the guy's name starts with an H and ends with -er, cant you see it?
TZHE END IS NIGH!

I hope he wins, simply because this time it doesnt really matter but it should be the wake up call Europe needs.

[Dromikaites]

As the old Chinese saying goes, be very careful what you wish for because you might get it.

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

Van der Bellen will win.

[Pinarius]

some info graphics on orf.at:
http://orf.at/stories/2340510/2340508/

[Mangalore]

I actually think this is a good development. They complain about the status quo, so let them have a go at it and see how it turns out.

Germany and Austria are notoriously bad with that parenting style, having burnt down the house twice and so on...

[alhoon]

Germany and Austria are notoriously bad with that parenting style, having burnt down the house twice and so on...

When did it happen in Austria?
And to be frank, I do believe that in Germany, the fire on the parliament that led to Hitler becoming dictator was set by the communists.

[Condottiere 40K]

Seems an anarchist thing to do, since you want the bleeding hearts, the useful idiots, and the fellow travellers to gum up the works.