Lebanon, civil war?

[Saladin45]

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/12/10/news/lebanon.php


Lebanon's pro-Syrian president has refused to endorse a draft accord sent to him by the cabinet to create an international tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of a former prime minister.
President Emile Lahoud said Saturday the cabinet of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and his anti-Syria allies had lost its constitutional legitimacy.
The president's action was certain to intensify political and sectarian tensions that have worsened since mass protests over the 2005 slaying of the former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, forced Syria to end a nearly three-decade military occupation of Lebanon.
The Syrian-backed Hezbollah guerrilla group and its allies were in the ninth day of street protests launched after talks with Saniora's government failed to produce a national unity government. The groups called for a huge demonstration Sunday, saying it would mark an escalation in their attempt to oust the U.S.-backed government.

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The political crisis has taken on a dangerous sectarian tone, with most Sunni Muslims supporting the Sunni prime minister and Shiites backing Hezbollah. Christian factions are split between the two camps.
A Christian leader allied with Hezbollah, General Michel Aoun, renewed his call for Saniora to step down as a way out of the political impasse.
"Your excellency, the prime minister, stop being stubborn," Aoun said in a televised statement Saturday.
He added that Saniora should "go home."
"That's better for you because you are unable to steer the ship no matter how much support you get from abroad," he said.
"Please step down," he added.
The president had been expected to reject the tribunal agreement sent to him Nov. 27.
The accord calls for a United Nations-organized court to try the suspected assassins of Hariri, an opponent of Syrian influence who was killed by a truck bomb along with 22 others in February 2005.
A UN investigation has said the attack's complexity suggested the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services played a role in the assassination. Syria denies involvement.



Saladin's comments- I just want to see what people think about the situation on this forum. I'm actually a citizen of this country and have family over there. Talk about scared, I was thankful for everyday that they weren't killed this summer. And to think, there will be another long, drawn out civil war to come.

[Sher Khan]

There will be civil war in Lebanon when one clan grows too powerful to take on another. Peace was established after the last civil war because all sides, the Druze, the Shi'ites, the Sunnis, the Maronites, etcetera, found themselves at a stalemate.

Now the Shi'ites have truley gained manpower to overcome all others. Hezbollah now comes knocking, and the old Maronite-led government finds itself in another fight for control.

[Miraj]

Shiites have Christian allies? What a bizzaro world! Well Lebanon has always been that way. On one street theirs gay hookers and a few blocks down there's shariah law.

I really hope Hezbollah stop this nonsense and bullying. That's if they wish well for Lebanon.

This is obviously Syria's machinations. Isn't it odd how these "troubles" started just as the UN tribunal to investigate the assassination was announced.

[Saladin45]

I have a feeling that Hezbollah will take the gov very soon. And not only are they already powerful, it's mainly due to the fact that they've had backing from Syria and Iran. Most of the other groups are not going to have that type of backing. Therefore, if civil war does erupt, which it probably will, there will be a serious upper hand for Hezbollah. And for some reason, in the pit of my stomach, I have a feeling the government is going to topple because honestly, the military of Lebanon is a joke.

[Miraj]

Damn thats sad. The Iranians and their Syrian byaches are really taking over since the Iraq war. Its the same story in Iraq. And even my dad in Bahrain tells me the shiites there are getting restless. I mean if Hezbollah were able to hold down the Israelis they could easily shred through the Leb Army and the other factions. I really hope they come to their senses and stop this.

I have many Leb friends who are also scared of this a lot. There doing everything now to bring their relatives to Canada. They really don't trust Lebanon's stability anymore.

[Saladin45]

I mean, honestly. The government isn'tthe best. But, I mean, versus all out civil war, what would you want? Ya know?

I think the best thing to happen would be for the government to just surrender itself to Hezbollah or try to come to a kind of agreement. Because like you said, if Israel was held by Hezbollah, they will shred the Lebanese army.

My uncle's buisness in Beiruit is actually falling apart. Most shops and stores in Beiruit are actually filing bankruptcy, etc, because they just can't afford to stay open. The economy I believe is basically at a dead stop. This year we were supposed to have a six percent increase (I read this somewhere, can't remember where) and now it's at zero.

Most of my family there are thinking about either moving to Syria or coming to America.

[TheKwas]

Why isn't there a clause to allow a motion of no confidence and have an election?

Also, people should remember that this isn't a 'Hezbollah-vs-Christian government' thing. Hezbollah has something like 14 seats (out of 70 something) and are tied for 2nd in the oppisition coalition. They are big players, but the oppisition is much more complex than that. I believe Anoun (sp?) is one of the most actively involved groups in the protests and they are primarly Christian and have an equal amount of seats as Hezbollah.

Seriously, isn't it standard everywhere in the world outside America to have forced elections?

[mrjesushat]

Why isn't there a clause to allow a motion of no confidence and have an election?

Also, people should remember that this isn't a 'Hezbollah-vs-Christian government' thing. Hezbollah has something like 14 seats (out of 70 something) and are tied for 2nd in the oppisition coalition. They are big players, but the oppisition is much more complex than that. I believe Anoun (sp?) is one of the most actively involved groups in the protests and they are primarly Christian and have an equal amount of seats as Hezbollah.

Seriously, isn't it standard everywhere in the world outside America to have forced elections?

Which raises a point. Lebanon might be better off with a Presidential system akin to what we have in the U.S. Proportional representation in a place this badly divided is probably a bad idea. They might be able to avoid Civil Wars if they had two absurdly fictional parties with platforms bearing no recognizable relationship to actual national concerns. This way, the population could worry about something other than religion and ethnicity, except for purposes of flaming eachother in online debate.

[Saladin45]

What we need in Lebanon is a centralized leader. Problem is, nobody is really fit to lead. And those who can lead, aren't exactly the most righteous of people.

[TheKwas]

No no no, I disagree completely. Part of the problem now it seems is that the government is becoming much too polarized for the oppisition's taste. Traditionally Lebanonese parties really mean nothing more than meger funding and loyalty is given to local groups/familes before your representating party (this is what all politicans may say in the rest of the world, but it's actually true in Lebanon), and politicans of the same party will vote against each other (regardless of the fact that there's so many parties).
From what I gather from my limited sources (there's a large lebanonese community where I live and Lebanon media outlets are avialable if you look in the right places), the ruling coalition has moved more to work as a bloc in order to limit the power of the growing-in-popularity oppisition (who have been growing mainly since after the Israeli invasion, due to their harsh criticism of how the leading government handled the problem).
Apperantly the oppisition Coalition, who are just barely smaller than the leading coalition thanks to some recent agreements, tried to appeal for some cabinet seats (creating an all-reaching coalition government, which is often the normal in PR governments, see Germany). The leading Alliance refused and the oppisition thinks they have a right to such positions due to their rise in the polls and their already large size.

To completely push one group out of power (which is what the Presidential system does, 50% of the vote=100% of the power) will force the large minorities to seek political powers by non-parliment methods.


Unless you mean purely longterm, where elections are a joke and are merely choosing something everyone can agree to hate. Then I suppose you may have a point.

EDIT: Originally meant for Jesushat, but applies to Saladin's post too I guess.

[mrjesushat]

No no no, I disagree completely. Part of the problem now it seems is that the government is becoming much too polarized for the oppisition's taste. Traditionally Lebanonese parties really mean nothing more than meger funding and loyalty is given to local groups/familes before your representating party (this is what all politicans may say in the rest of the world, but it's actually true in Lebanon), and politicans of the same party will vote against each other (regardless of the fact that there's so many parties).
From what I gather from my limited sources (there's a large lebanonese community where I live and Lebanon media outlets are avialable if you look in the right places), the ruling coalition has moved more to work as a bloc in order to limit the power of the growing-in-popularity oppisition (who have been growing mainly since after the Israeli invasion, due to their harsh criticism of how the leading government handled the problem).
Apperantly the oppisition Coalition, who are just barely smaller than the leading coalition thanks to some recent agreements, tried to appeal for some cabinet seats (creating an all-reaching coalition government, which is often the normal in PR governments, see Germany). The leading Alliance refused and the oppisition thinks they have a right to such positions due to their rise in the polls and their already large size.

A really awesome analysis, Kwas. Thank you for posting it.

To completely push one group out of power (which is what the Presidential system does, 50% of the vote=100% of the power) will force the large minorities to seek political powers by non-parliment methods.

Yes. And here in the U.S., the appearance of a free-to-object opposition is manufactured through various media avenues. So, the Conservatives complain on talk radio and Fox News, while the Liberals complain via Hollywood and Comedy Central.

Unless you mean purely longterm, where elections are a joke and are merely choosing something everyone can agree to hate. Then I suppose you may have a point.

Bingo, dude. This is precisely what I meant. Lebanon would be far better off if their bureau of tourism ran the country, and hid its operations behind a large-scale presidential system that made for entertaining, totally insignificant political debate. What the Maronites, the Shiites, the Druze and everyone else need to remember is, Lebanon is a giant beach. People from all over the world would love to vacation there, if only the stupidity and the explosions would stop.

I guess we'll have to wait for Ramada or Hilton or Holiday Inn to get fed up and just buy out the country, erect a fictional government, and revitalize the old tourist mecca of the Middle East. Until that time, it looks like they're in for chaos and Civil War.

[AMERICARULES]

Unfortunately, I see civil war in Lebanon as very likely. It seems to me that a lot of people in Lebanon (particularly those in Hezbollah controlled areas) are more loyal to their own sect than they are to the country of Lebanon itself. Hezbollah accused the government of wanting Israel to destroy them in their recent war. If the government is indeed toppled, who knows what might happen?