Detection Roll:
(Modified down by the highest Pathfinder trait of any character on the raid and modified up by the province value, +1 to detection for each 10,000 Dragons)
1-5, the peasants are caught completely by surprise and no defence can be mustered. Proceed straight to a Loot Roll.
6-10, the peasants muster a weak defence, but in the chaos do not send riders to report the attacking banners. Proceed to Raid Roll.
11-15, the peasants muster a defence, and report the identity of the attackers by rider to the local keep. Proceed to Perception Roll.
16-20, the attackers are detected well before they arrive, allowing the local Levy and Militia to rally to the defence. Conduct a Perception Roll and a Field Battle.
Perception Roll: Roll a d20, with 1-10 being a vague understanding of who you are (eg, 'Westermen') and 11-20 being a more specific understanding (eg, 'Westermen from Sarsfield'). Use of banners will not alter this roll, though banners will be reported alongside any other findings (eg 'They had Winterfell banners but seemed like Rivermen to me'). RP justifications shall be the survivors recognizing an accent or dialect, overhearing raiders mentioning something that gives a clue to their origin, etc. Proceed to Raid roll afterwards.
Raid Roll: Roll a d20, with the outcome being the % of your force lost during the pillaging spree to death, desertion or disappearance. This is capped at 400 men, since large forces are otherwise at a disadvantage, where every 1% represents ever larger numbers of men for no extra gain.
Loot Roll: Roll a d10, with the outcome in % being the loot you gained, based on the following table:
Very poor - 20,000
Poor - 30,000
Prosperous - 40,000
Very prosperous - 50,000
Rich - 60,000
Very rich - 70,000
In addition, gain +1% for every 250 men present in the raiding party (after the Raid Roll casualties are factored in, and rounded to the nearest 500) up to a maximum of +12% (3,000 men) and +1% for each point of Pillager for any character in the raiding party (max 1 character applied per player, to stop single players exploiting this by sending parties with 4 characters each with +3 Pillager).
Thus a maximum amount of 22% base loot may be seized. Once an army has raided a province, it will be stationary for 3 RL hours.
Raid Size Limitations:
The size of a raiding army will have effect on how easily it will be detected. The more men that are present in a raiding force, the easier it becomes for the local populace to detect that force and prepare against it. Historically, it was much easier for a small group of men to remain undetected compared to a larger group of men and this rule is meant to simulate this kind of effect.
-- The maximum size that a raiding force can be without having any penalties is 2,000 men
-- For every 250 men above this cap, a +5 will be added to the raid detection roll.
-- An army that is over 3,000 men (+20 detection rolls) will always be detected by the local populace when it is on a raiding mission and it will usually be subject to a full-scale battle with the local provincial levy as a result
-- The maximum size for a raiding fleet is 40 ships before detection penalties are involved.
-- For every 20 ships above this size, there will be a +4 to detection rolls. A fleet larger than 120 ships will automatically be forced to fight the local regional levy.
In addition, a raiding army connected to a Lordly House is limited a maximum of three raids per year. This is to prevent player abuse in raiding a whole bunch of close together and undefended provinces while also helping the moderators by not having us roll five to ten raids per week per person. This shall be rped as your men being satisfied by their acquired loot and wanting to return home to spend it.
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