That's it. Fate: Crisis is MingYun1101, which is what's lowering his personal security, thus his bodyguard. It looks like there's 2 more levels to that trait, so he can snap out of it somehow.
Code:
Trait MingYun1100
Characters family
NoGoingBackLevel 1
AntiTraits MingYun9100
Level MingYun1101
Description MingYun1101_desc
EffectsDescription MingYun1101_effects_desc
GainMessage MingYun1101_gain_desc
Threshold 1000
Effect TroopMorale -2
Effect HitPoints -15
Effect LocalPopularity -10
Effect Law -2
Effect Unrest -20
Effect PublicSecurity -10
Effect PersonalSecurity -100
Level MingYun1102
Description MingYun1102_desc
EffectsDescription MingYun1102_effects_desc
GainMessage MingYun1102_gain_desc
Threshold 2000
Level MingYun1103
Description MingYun1103_desc
EffectsDescription MingYun1103_effects_desc
GainMessage MingYun1103_gain_desc
Threshold 3000