Taliban attack Kunduz

[Papay]

http://news.yahoo.com/taliban-assaul...102440296.html

KABUL (Reuters) - Heavy fighting between Afghan security forces and Taliban insurgents that killed more than 30 combatants on Monday threatened a major northern city, prompting President Ashraf Ghani to delay a state visit to India.
Officials said hundreds of Taliban insurgents had attacked police and army checkposts in the province of Kunduz, the militants' last stronghold before U.S. coalition forces drove them from power in 2001.
Now they threaten to overrun parts of the provincial capital, after fighting that killed eight Afghan security forces and at least two dozen Taliban in the area, a spokesman for the provincial governor said.
"The threat level is very high, but with new reinforcements, our security forces have gained morale and god willing, we will win the fight," said Abdul Waseh Basel, the spokesman.
The insurgents have overrun seven army and police checkposts in central Kunduz and two districts, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in an email statement.


Ghani postponed his planned departure for New Delhi and called NATO's Gen. John Campbell to a meeting at the presidential palace to discuss the Kunduz fighting, the general said.
It was unclear how long the delay would be. Ghani's spokesman was not immediately available for comment.
Battles were raging about 6 km (4 miles) south of Kunduz city, officials said. Insurgents also broke into the city itself, in the southern district of Gul Tepa, Basel told Reuters.
Afghan security forces used artillery to defend the city, another official said.
"The sound of heavy weapons fired by Afghan forces can be heard in the city," said Kunduz police spokesman Sayed Sarwar Hussaini.

Its obvious that the current government cannot enforce order in Afghanistan. The oxymoron is that the majority of Afghan troops are in southern provinces to fight Taliban, and that has lead to a rapidly deteriorating security situation in northern Afghanistan, even in areas that no Pashtun live. Kabul government will have serious survival problems on the long term

http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2015/04/27...men-imam-sahib

If Kabul loses so easily Kunduz(the most important city in Northern Afghanistan)at the begining of the fighting season then it would be a terrible disaster for the morale of Afghans who support the government. I assume that NATO wont let Taliban capture Kunduz but the fact that the rebels defeated the Afghan army so easily is a very bad sign for Kabul

[Generaal Van Heutsz]

But but but they have been trained by the dutch, they should be though really though, Groenlinks made many special demands before they would vote for the training missions. (I know this doesn't make any sense to most readers but the dutch will understand)

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

Funny how all the ignorants (not here I think) were making jokes and laughing about how ISIS and Taliban would fight each other...
Those people didn't see that ISIS had only some supporters/groups in Pakistan/Afghanistan but no real ground. I doubt that hundred people died in this 'war'. Pathetic how this was all over the news

[Heinz Guderian]

Longest war in US history. Mission Accomplished.

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

Longest war in US history. Mission Accomplished.

The Punic wars took 120 years (not every year fighting season though ) so in another 100 years you may have won.

I don't follow Afghanistan so closely. I thought the Taliban got some deal with the government? Or didn't that work out. All in all Afghanistan seems to be quite stable to me.
War is raging in Afganistan for 37 years and 6 days ...

[Papay]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-with-taliban

More worrying signs. Its obvious that the Afghan government will loose control of all of Afghanistan except from the big cities

[Admiral Piett]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-with-taliban

"Most casualties are from local police forces." You would think that the ANA would be suffering mass casualties with the way that headline was written. It's obvious that the opposition was waiting for the US combat mission to end and before ramping up on the offensive. And casualties are "way up" because now they are fighting without the US to bear the brunt of it.

[snuggans]

More worrying signs. Its obvious that the Afghan government will loose control of all of Afghanistan except from the big cities

that's not so obvious, but the article does paint a few positive points: "Afghan forces have initiated offensives in at least three areas since assuming full control of combat operations and have performed well, said Tribus."

"A Taliban fighter on average is killed every 48 hours attempting to plant a bomb, according to Sediq Sediqqi, a ministry spokesman. "

"Campbell said he had been surprised recently to discover a Ministry of Defense warehouse bulging with “thousands and thousands” of bulletproof vests and headgear even as the local police units go without protection. The Afghan defense ministry now plans to transfer the equipment to the Ministry of Interior, which commands the local police units, he said."

so yes their casualties have increased as is to be expected from the increased exposure that comes with the gradual departure of the coalition, and it isn't sustainable amounts, but compared to 1996, Afghanistan has a much better chance now.

Obama has slowed down the departure from Afghanistan although the end deadline remains the same, troops will be leaving Afghanistan at a slower rate than what was planned but they should all be out (except for embassy defense in Kabul) by 2017, seems like it will be largely up to future presidents as to whether there will be more involvement than that

[Heinz Guderian]

absolute debacle from start to finish. Graveyard of Empires.

[Condottiere 40K]

7612
You pass through Afghanistan to richer pastures; you don't stay, which seems to be the general mistake.

[The Noble Lord]

Kunduz will NOT fall, they don't have enough resources to mount full-scale frontal attack in a conventional way, plus they can't stand attrition
warfare in a conventional way, theirs is hit and run tactics. This attack came as a news because they were able to mount simultaneous attacks
from few sides, other than that it is like other attacks. The Taliban are not what they used to be in their heyday, in Kunduz there is Taliban, then
Hezb e-Islami fighters, plus at least 50-100 foreign fighters who fled North Waziristan and settled in Kunduz province with their families. And they are
NOT coordinating their attacks nor they are under unified command!

If Kabul loses so easily Kunduz(the most important city in Northern Afghanistan)

The most important city in Northern Afghanistan is Mazar e-Sharif, it is the capitol of the North!

[Impresario]

it looks like you were right, talibans didn't take Kunduz and they apparently sopped attacking. how is situation up there now?

[Papay]

it looks like you were right, talibans didn't take Kunduz and they apparently sopped attacking. how is situation up there now?

Bleak

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/0...0O715V20150522

One month later the government army has failed to repel Taliban who are still "besieging" Kunduz. The government is forced to rely on local militia to "check" Taliban progress. The worst is not that though. The worst is that the government looses ground almost everywhere in Afghanistan. They did a successful campaign against Taliban in Ghazni province but now after defeating them there, they must stay to prevent Taliban from reclaiming the lost territories. Meanwhile Taliban attack elsewhere. At least 15 of the 34 provinces of Afghanistan has seen a spike in violence(many of them in North)and the government loses ground steadily.

http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanist...sts-in-uruzgan

Here is an article for Uruzgan province which was considered traditionally one of the most "peaceful" south provinces

http://m.strategic-culture.org/news/...an-border.html

Another article about Badakshtan province which in the NE of Afghanistan, again traditionally peaceful. 80% is controlled by Taliban now

Generally speaking the Taliban are incapable of capturing big cities for now but i dont know what will happen in 2 or three fighting seasons. The Afghan army has a steady bleeding in manpower since the begining of the year

[snuggans]

Bleak

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/0...0O715V20150522

you linked a positive bit of news for Afghanistan but presented it as a disaster, which shows how little you know of Afghanistan. guess who fought against the taliban back in the 90's and 2000's? mujahideen like Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, even Pashtuns. whichever official government in Kabul wants to govern Afghanistan NEEDS to have some form of relationship with these anti-taliban mujahideen seeing as how they are also military strongmen themselves and could also present problems, but instead are helping the fight against the Taliban, once again. yeah, the situation is really bleak, papay. the locals are fighting Pakistani invaders, this is terrible news....

even if the taliban were nonexistant, you'd still need to establish some sort of relationship with these people that live right in the middle of the place.

what i'm definitely seeing is that as the US departs from Iraq and Afghanistan, there are more locals and regional groups in the two countries coming together to fight against a common foe whether it be daesh or the taliban.

[Papay]

you linked a positive bit of news for Afghanistan but presented it as a disaster, which shows how little you know of Afghanistan. guess who fought against the taliban back in the 90's and 2000's? mujahideen like Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, even Pashtuns. whichever official government in Kabul wants to govern Afghanistan NEEDS to have some form of relationship with these anti-taliban mujahideen seeing as how they are also military strongmen themselves and could also present problems, but instead are helping the fight against the Taliban, once again. yeah, the situation is really bleak, papay. the locals are fighting Pakistani invaders, this is terrible news....

even if the taliban were nonexistant, you'd still need to establish some sort of relationship with these people that live right in the middle of the place.

what i'm definitely seeing is that as the US departs from Iraq and Afghanistan, there are more locals and regional groups in the two countries coming together to fight against a common foe whether it be daesh or the taliban.

Return to the 1992-1996 genocidal civil war then. Very nice

[Heinz Guderian]

Return to the 1992-1996 genocidal civil war then. Very nice

yeah thanks America

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Kraut and Tea]

I point the finger of blame at Pakistan.

[Heinz Guderian]

mission accomplished

[Papay]

http://www.khaama.com/taliban-take-c...-province-1230

Taliban captured a strategic district and now they are on the outskirts of Kunduz. Although i doubt that they will capture the city its a bad sign for things to come

[Raubritter]

Lets look at a few numbers here.

Age structure of Afghanistan
0-14 years: 42% (male 6,793,832/female 6,579,388)
15-24 years: 22.2% (male 3,600,264/female 3,464,781)
25-54 years: 29.4% (male 4,771,323/female 4,586,963)
55-64 years: 3.9% (male 603,197/female 622,539)
65 years and over: 2.5% (male 371,753/female 428,808) (2014 est.)

The average age here is 18 Years old.

Total fertility rate
5.43 children born per woman

Population growth rate
2.29%


So let me explain what that adds up to. These people have a giant pool of soft target fighting material aka. manpower that is way faster in supply than there is economical growth. The dependency rate is around 88% among the young. The only one hiring are the Army and the Insurgents, which means the blood river flows and the population still growths! The idea, that western powers can match this demographical arms race is absurd! We rather talk about making/ruining our whole enviorment able for pensioners, women and the few children we still have.

This only can end if they breed less and all the surplus sons kill each other untill there are so few left, that they easily find something better to do somewhere else in their community.