Is climate change fuelling war?

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

http://www.theverge.com/2015/3/4/814...-drought-study
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-10081163.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...hange-drought/
http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/does-clim...cause-conflict

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

A sand tornado passes through as thousands of Kurds stream into Dikmetas, Turkey, from Syria in September 2014. Years after rural residents fleeing drought poured into Syria's cities, helping to spark a civil war, the region remains in turmoil.

A new study says a record drought that ravagedSyria in 2006-2010 was likely stoked by ongoingmanmade climate change, and that the droughtmay have helped propel the 2011 Syrian uprising.Researchers say the drought, the worst everrecorded in the region, destroyed agriculture in thebreadbasket region of northern Syria, drivingdispossessed farmers to cities, where poverty,government mismanagement and other factorscreated unrest that exploded in spring 2011. Theconflict has since evolved into a complexmultinational war that has killed at least 200,000people and displaced millions. The study appearstoday in the leading journal Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences."We're not saying the drought caused the war,"said Richard Seager, a climate scientist atColumbia University's Lamont-Doherty EarthObservatory who coauthored the study. "We'resaying that added to all the other stressors, ithelped kick things over the threshold into openconflict. And a drought of that severity was mademuch more likely by the ongoing human-drivendrying of that region."

With the release of Atilla, where climate is a big part of the game, this study reminds me of the similarities, between 400 AD and now (or the Mongols and climate change). Maybe the mudpit isn't the place to discuss the factor of climate and the end of the Western Roman empire or the Mongols but you get the picture: Climate change CAN cause important historical events
I couldn't find the study but its conclusion is clear: more war if climal change isn't stopped. Can climate change be stopped?
Do you see this conclusions as valid? It seems to me he makes an excellent point. Although it isn't the main factor it is indeed a push factor in these wars.
What regions/countries are vulnerable to climate change that sparks into violence?
What will be the role of climate change on borders? What countries are in dager of this or will cripple (Brazil, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, China) under Climate change?

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pre...climate-change
http://www.unesco.org/new/en/brasili...limate-change/
http://www.scidev.net/global/desert-...ure-water.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8B41B820121205
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/0...0KU0XL20150121
http://www.gcca.eu/sites/default/fil...fghanistan.pdf
It is important to some countries.
Remember what happens in a small country can spark to other countries or cause other effects..

Please don't turn this in "what caused the Syrian civil war"..probably a million things (discuss that in the ISIS thread..it will maybe change the mood there)

[Davius]

Preeeeetty sure sandstorms happen whether the earth is on a warming trend or not.

So, no.

[Jom]

Preeeeetty sure sandstorms happen whether the earth is on a warming trend or not.

So, no.

Every weather condition happens whether the earth is generally getting warmer. The question is whether sand storms are becoming more common because of climate change. If climate change is causing increased aridity in areas that are already arid, then that's going to mean more loose dust particles to blow around.

[alhoon]

Actually, the question is if climate change is fuelling wars.
I believe no. A sandstorm increase won't cause wars.


Now, if climate change drastically reduces food production and famine is threatened, that will bring wars.

[Caligula's_Horse]

Farming practices tend to be reasonably well optimized to the local weather patterns, so anything that changes them is usually detrimental, at least short term. So man made climate change causing crop failure, thereby leading to war, is a perfectly plausible scenario. It probably happened at a few times already, we just don't understand weather patterns well enough to confidently attribute one to the other.

[Earl Dibbles Jr]

Human-made climate change is a myth. That being said, natural climate change has yet to have a substantial impact that would directly lead to war.

[Jom]

Human-made climate change is a myth. That being said, natural climate change has yet to have a substantial impact that would directly lead to war.

Citation needed.

[Captain Jin]

The answer is yes. Climate change is fueling wars. Or more accurately it's adding stressors that contribute to the outbreak of the war. Food security and water security are two major examples in the developing world. An example of how climate change can and does contribute to the outbreak of conflict is seen in Egypt-- China experiences a major winter drought that is highly uncharacteristic. This effects Chinese grain production. The Chinese severely curb grain exports. Egypt is one of the largest grain exports in the world. This series of events contributed to food insecurity for many people in the country. This helps to spark protests against an authoritarian regime. It's not the single greatest cause, but again, it's a stressor.

That's a light example. In reality climate change is a national security concern. Extreme weather and its effects act as threat multipliers. This has already been acknowledged by the DOD and CIA.

A report completed by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America found a correlation between unusually warm temperatures and civil unrest/conflict in Africa. According to them, if climate trend projections are true then by 2030 there will be an approximately 54% increased in armed conflict-- resulting an additional 393,000 estimated battle-related deaths. This happens, generally, because agriculture makes up the bulk of most countries in Africa's GDP and figures heavily into employment figures. When farmers lose crops to increasing temperatures and lack of precipitation it puts stressors on what are already fragile situations in many countries. Since most of these countries are incapable of dealing with the stressors it can often lead to violence. The study does indicate that there needs to be more research, however these are the results:

"Temperature variables are strongly related to conflict incidence over our historical panel, with a 1 °C increase in temperature in our preferred specification leading to a 4.5% increase in civil war in the same year and a 0.9% increase in conflict incidence in the next year (model 1 in Table 1). Relative to the 11.0% of country-years that historically experience conflict in our panel, such a 1 °C warming represents a remarkable 49% relative increase in the incidence of civil war."

Moreover people should realize that before the Syrian Civil War began Syria was experiencing a severe drought of biblical proportions. It resulted in the mass migrations of people from destitute farms in rural areas into the urban centers where people competed for an already scarce supply of jobs in order to feed their families. Also given the nature of Syria's infrastructure the cities were unable to cope with this influx of people and, in part thanks to the drought, food and water security became an issue. All of this had a large hand in sparking protests against the Assad regime and we see how he responded to that unrest.

Here are two of the reports if anyone is interested in reading them in detail.

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-...ArabSpring.pdf
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20670.full

[James the Red]

Its not hard to see why climate change can contribute to tensions and thus make war more of a possibility.

Heck, the population of Urban settlements now outnumber rural inhabitants, so a sudden decrease in food supply won't be pretty. Or water, even in the USA there are many places where water is becoming scarcer, and people are still watering their effing lawns.

[Phier]

As predicted, such is the future of man.

[Dr Zoidberg]

As predicted, such is the future of man.

Couldn't the future be a less movie?

[Vanoi]

;look to the Arctic Circle that is melting and look at how many countries are already trying to stake their claim as it melts. If climate change isn't fueling war now, its laying the groundwork for it.

[I WUB PUGS]

You mean the great Danish-Canadian Gunboat War of 2020?



People do strange things when it gets hot. As a southerner I am accustomed to this. Y'all just need to set yourself right up on the porch and have a few of these...

[Vanoi]

You mean the great Danish-Canadian Gunboat War of 2020?

Russia is putting a lot of its military in the Arctic and even China is trying to stake a claim. Lots of resources and of course people forget that ships can sail through this Arctic when the ice melts and cut down their travel time a lot. And with climate change its only getting easier for ships in the summer to pass through the Arctic.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage

Until 2009, the Arctic pack ice prevented regular marine shipping throughout most of the year. Changes in the pack ice (Arctic shrinkage) caused by climate change have rendered the waterways more navigable.^{[8][9][10][11]} The contested sovereignty claims over the waters may complicate future shipping through the region: the Canadian government considers the Northwestern Passages part of Canadian Internal Waters,^[12] but the United States and various European countries maintain they are an international strait and transit passage, allowing free and unencumbered passage.^[13][14] If, as has been claimed, parts of the eastern end of the Passage are barely 15 metres (49 ft) deep,^[15] the route's viability as a Euro-Asian shipping route is reduced.

Just as long as Canada stops .

[hellheaven1987]

even China is trying to stake a claim.

I never heard China wants to claim Arctic region; rather most information suggest Chinese want to help their international buddies (if that exists in first place) to gain a favorable claim so Chinese can explore those resources in friendly territories.

[Sphere]

You're not southern Pugs. You're Floridian. When it's hot you drink Surge. And it's always hot.

[I WUB PUGS]

No, I drank a six pack of Mountain Dew a day growing up. I think that's why I have all daughters.

And Florida fought against your Yankee aggression!






































Even if I'm directly descended from a Union soldier from Ohio I can feign outrage!

[I WUB PUGS]

I know, which is why I reference the Canadians and Danes.

You didn't just link me to something we all learned about in 3rd grade did you? Come on man, I'm not like, Ugandan or something.