"Greek recession is over" - Are we sure about it?

[alhoon]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-25-9-percent/

According to this article, our recession (the worst in modern history, worse than USA in the Great Depression) is over but as even the article admits, things are FAR from good and recovery will be painfully slow.

However... I'm not optimistic. Elections loom in the way and the government started covertly to give bunch of money out. The abhorred extra residence tax (ΕΝΦΙΑ) was slashed by 20% to 50% for millions. The military salaries jumped back (and well they did) but they will also receive recompensation for many months that they had lower salaries. The money given by the country to support families with 3+ children return, increased, and again, people collect them retroactively.
All in all... we're back to spending a lot of money and I'm afraid that we will very soon return to spending beyond our means.

So, while we're in a sloooow recovery now, I'm afraid the prediction shown in the article won't come to pass; I'm afraid the graph will dip down, again.

On the other parts, I kinda agree with article; ECB policies didn't help.

[Stavroforos]

If New Democracy stays in power, the West will keep us on life support so that we can be in more or less the situation we are now, or if Syriza comes to power, they'll cut us off and then it's every man for himself.

[Hobbes]

If New Democracy stays in power, the West will keep us on life support so that we can be in more or less the situation we are now, or if Syriza comes to power, they'll cut us off and then it's every man for himself.

I am almost certain that a SYRIZA government will do as it's told. The whole radicalism thing is just for looks. Samaras used to talk about radical measures before he came to power and Tsipras will just do the same.

[Stavroforos]

I am almost certain that a SYRIZA government will do as it's told. The whole radicalism thing is just for looks. Samaras used to talk about radical measures before he came to power and Tsipras will just do the same.

The way I see it is SYRIZA will do as it's told, but it will "scare" away the lenders and the credit ratings people so that it will make it even harder for them and for the rest of us.

[Garbarsardar]

Porsche has a new Cayenne model. Do I buy it now with a largely unsecured loan or should I wait a bit?

[Stavroforos]

Porsche has a new Cayenne model. Do I buy it now with a largely unsecured loan or should I wait a bit?

Wait until the elections, comrade, Syriza will give all Greeks one.

[Denny Crane!]

Germany closes in on a new recession where is this recovery? Is it a recovery when we have 25.9% unemployment as a victory score?

Where is Greeces debt and what is the recovery estimation. Interesting either way, I love to hear this stuff. If not for optimism for hilarity.

[alhoon]

Germany closes in on a new recession where is this recovery? Is it a recovery when we have 25.9% unemployment as a victory score?

Where is Greeces debt and what is the recovery estimation. Interesting either way, I love to hear this stuff. If not for optimism for hilarity.

The Greek Debt is I think 150-160% of GDP and the "recovery estimation" is 2022. That is, without dropping to recession again before the elections.

[Gaidin]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-25-9-percent/

According to this article, our recession (the worst in modern history, worse than USA in the Great Depression) is over but as even the article admits, things are FAR from good and recovery will be painfully slow.

However... I'm not optimistic. Elections loom in the way and the government started covertly to give bunch of money out. The abhorred extra residence tax (ΕΝΦΙΑ) was slashed by 20% to 50% for millions. The military salaries jumped back (and well they did) but they will also receive recompensation for many months that they had lower salaries. The money given by the country to support families with 3+ children return, increased, and again, people collect them retroactively.
All in all... we're back to spending a lot of money and I'm afraid that we will very soon return to spending beyond our means.

So, while we're in a sloooow recovery now, I'm afraid the prediction shown in the article won't come to pass; I'm afraid the graph will dip down, again.

On the other parts, I kinda agree with article; ECB policies didn't help.

Technically even the American Great Depression was over a long time before things were...well...good.

[fkizz]

So greece has:

Debt as % of GDP: 212.57%

Interest per Year to pay: 27,587,524,337€

Interest rises 875€ per second

source is going by http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/greece

unemployment is on 25~% figure

recession over? even if going full technical, not much longer for technical recession to re-start again.

Greece gov budget is in its dark ages aswell, going by trading economics

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/gree...ernment-budget

Sorry but I think it's gameover for you guys, you apparently seem to have no decent future in the euro, this assuming that the euro has a future

[Ludicus]

So greece has:

Debt as % of GDP: 212.57%

Interest per Year to pay: 27,587,524,337€

Interest rises 875€ per second

source is going by http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/greece

unemployment is on 25~% figure

recession over? even if going full technical, not much longer for technical recession to re-start again.

Greece gov budget is in its dark ages aswell, going by trading economics

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/gree...ernment-budget

Sorry but I think it's gameover for you guys, you apparently seem to have no decent future in the euro, this assuming that the euro has a future

Our statistics are just a little better, and yet the debt is unplayable. Right, Fkizz? At Lambeth in 1998, the Archbishop of Canterbury proclaimed the need for debt cancellation of developing countries in the third world:

"...the massive debts, which are totally unplayable and which engulf millions of people in slavery no real than the terrible Atlantic trade of the nearly 19th century"

The same applies to us. (Greece and Portugal). Unfortunately, debt cancellations are not acceptable for weak and peaceful countries. We are not an highly indebted Germany, without access to capital, and that was Germany in in 1953, when half the country's debts were canceled. Nobody can deny that the Germans were hopelessly in debt after WW2, not unlike Greece and Portugal today. A parable,

Matthew 18:23-34

[23] Therefore is the kingdom of heaven likened unto a certain king, which would take account of his servants.
[24] And when he had begun to reckon, one was brought unto him, which owed him ten thousand talents.
[25] But forasmuch as he had not to pay, his lord commanded him to be sold, and his wife, and children, and all that he had, and payment to be made.
[26] The servant therefore fell down, and worshipped him, saying, Lord, have patience with me, and I will pay thee all.
[27] Then the lord of that servant was moved with compassion, and loosed him, and forgave him the debt.
[28] But the same servant went out, and found one of his fellowservants, which owed him an hundred pence: and he laid hands on him, and took him by the throat, saying, Pay me that thou owest.
[29] And his fellow servant fell down at his feet, and besought him, saying, Have patience with me, and I will pay thee all.
[30] And he would not: but went and cast him into prison, till he should pay the debt.
[31] So when his fellow servants saw what was done, they were very sorry, and came and told unto their lord all that was done.
[32] Then his lord, after that he had called him, said unto him, O thou wicked servant, I forgave thee all that debt, because thou desiredst me:
[33] Shouldest not thou also have had compassion on thy fellow servant, even as I had pity on thee?
[34] And his lord was wroth, and delivered him to the tormentors, till he should pay all that was due unto him.

Ironically, the preacher's daughter is now in the position of the ungrateful servant of the parable.

[Caelifer_1991]

Our statistics are just a little better, and yet the debt is unplayable. Right, Fkizz? At Lambeth in 1998, the Archbishop of Canterbury proclaimed the need for debt cancellation of developing countries in the third world:

"...the massive debts, which are totally unplayable and which engulf millions of people in slavery no real than the terrible Atlantic trade of the nearly 19th century"

The same applies to us. (Greece and Portugal). Unfortunately, debt cancellations are not acceptable for weak and peaceful countries. We are not an highly indebted Germany, without access to capital, and that was Germany in in 1953, when half the country's debts were canceled. Nobody can deny that the Germans were hopelessly in debt after WW2, not unlike Greece and Portugal today. A parable,

Matthew 18:23-34



Ironically, the preacher's daughter is now in the position of the ungrateful servant of the parable.

I personally wouldn't be opposed to some kind of debt cancellation for Greece and Portugal, but I imagine the investors would have a rather different view. The problem with Europe, as compared with Africa, is that its economy is just too large for the same options to be applicable; Africa in the 1980's was heavily indebted in regards to the size of its economy, but its economy had collapsed in the couple of decades after decolonisation to that of raw resource mining and agriculture, aka, pre-industrial (which of course isn't surprising given that all the people running the factories were European and left, and the people that owned the factories were also European and pulled their capital back to Europe with them, but I digress). Long story short, relative economic development is, even if only in that one way, a double edged sword, though its worth mentioning that Africa's debt cancellation was not for free, and was paid for in politics instead... much like the bailouts in Europe actually. Where capital is insufficient these things are still paid for, the currency merely changes to influence; in the case of Germany this worked out rather well, what with half of their country being occupied by the USSR, and the corresponding overlap in interests between the debtor and the borrower.

In regards to Portugal and Greece, with the higher cost accounted for, the question must then be asked: how much may the lender countries benefit sufficiently to offset the losses incurred through debt cancellation? For debts of such magnitude, and for relatively developed countries, then it seems to me that other than through mutual defence under the prospect of war, that there is nothing that is sufficient. This is offset of course if there is a serious risk of bankruptcy and thus automatic cancellation of debt anyway, in that case, the relative losses are reduced, thus changing the dynamic in favour of debt cancellation.

[Ludicus]

I personally wouldn't be opposed to some kind of debt cancellation for Greece and Portugal, but I imagine the investors would have a rather different view...how much may the lender countries benefit sufficiently to offset the losses incurred through debt cancellation?

Europe/the world should learn from history (*)
In my opinion, its a political problem. London Debt Agreement (50% cancellation) even included some debts to be paid after the (at the time unlikely and highly hypothetical) reunification of Germany.

(*) David Graebern,anthropologist, Debt: The First 5,000 Years:
"For thousands of years, the struggle between rich and poor has largely taken the form of conflicts between creditors and debtors — of arguments about the rights and wrongs of interest payment, debt peonage, amnesty, repossession, restitution, the sequestering of sheep, the seizing of vineyards and selling of debtors’ children into slavery. By the same token, for the last 5,000 years, with remarkable regularity, popular insurrections have begun the same way: with ritual destruction of debt records — tablets, papyri, ledgers, whatever form they might have taken in any particular time and place"

[UselessPoster]

So greece has:

Debt as % of GDP: 212.57%

Interest per Year to pay: 27,587,524,337€

Interest rises 875€ per second

source is going by http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/greece

unemployment is on 25~% figure

recession over? even if going full technical, not much longer for technical recession to re-start again.

Greece gov budget is in its dark ages aswell, going by trading economics

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/gree...ernment-budget

Sorry but I think it's gameover for you guys, you apparently seem to have no decent future in the euro, this assuming that the euro has a future

THIS IS SPARTA!!!...

Oh No, This is greece NVM.

[Basil II the B.S]

Hey, the IMF just said your unemployement will be halved in the next 5 years. It's the IMF so you must believe them. It's not like they ever got anything wrong about Greece recently.

Especially if that work-for-free program gets extended to the whole population.


Side note, Greece was the European country with the highest GDP growth this year. Hilarity ensues..

[alhoon]

Side note, Greece was the European country with the highest GDP growth this year. Hilarity ensues..

Source? Because we had like 1.1% growth...

[Basil II the B.S]

Source? Because we had like 1.1% growth...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1d24fde-6...#axzz3JFOgC9A8

I remembered wrong, it's just Q3, but considering the rest of Europe is in recession it's likely to be true.

[Odenat]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1d24fde-6...#axzz3JFOgC9A8

I remembered wrong, it's just Q3, but considering the rest of Europe is in recession it's likely to be true.

Yep, things are going badly for Turkey too. As Europe is in recession, we have less buyers for our products.

In today's world, when one ship goes down, the other ships will follow. We are all chained together.

And Greece can easily cut its military budget. We promise we won't invade anytime soon.

[Stavroforos]

Yep, things are going badly for Turkey too. As Europe is in recession, we have less buyers for our products.

In today's world, when one ship goes down, the other ships will follow. We are all chained together.

And Greece can easily cut its military budget. We promise we won't invade anytime soon.

Stop sending your ships in Cyprus' EEZ then.

[Basil II the B.S]

Without fixing the system that created the debt? So that you will recreate the debt and then ask it to be written off again? Nope.jpg.