Obama sent secret message to Iran, to offer fighting ISIS together!

[alhoon]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29941484

"US President Barack Obama is said to have written a secret letter to Iran's supreme leader describing a shared interest in fighting Islamic State.
The letter, reported by the Wall Street Journal, urges Ayatollah Ali Khamenei toward a nuclear agreement. The US chief stresses any co-operation on fighting IS is contingent on Iran reaching such an agreement by a 24 November diplomatic deadline
"



Quite important in my opinion. While I don't see the optimism behind a letter of "please, get your head out of your butt with the nukes, we need to fight ISIS together!" I applaud Obama's continued efforts to repair relations with Persia to a degree where they can fight a common enemy together at least.

NOTE: While this thread is not about Iran-USA relations but mostly on how nice it was from Obama to take the political risk and cost for that, if moderators think it should be merged with the other thread, feel free to do it!

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

there is already a thread about Persia-USA relations.
I say wonderfull! Saudi and friends are more dangerous than Persia

[alhoon]

there is already a thread about Persia-USA relations.

This thread is about Obama, but I see your point.

[Roma_Victrix]

Only a fool or a willful propagandist would deny that the US and Iran share similar interests when it comes to combating ISIS.

That being said, the US has its allies Israel and Saudi Arabia to consider, as well as its consternation with Iran's Shi'a allies Hezbollah and Assad in Lebanon and Syria, respectively.

The problem here is monitoring and ensuring that the Iranian government's nuclear program contains uranium enrichment to a very small degree, certainly nowhere near anything that could be classified as weapons-grade (with isotope U-235 making up the majority of the content). In order to generate nuclear power, only 3-5% of isotope U-235 is necessary, whereas in natural uranium it is only about 1% of the make-up (the rest being U-238). I'm not even quite sure how far along the Iranians have come in enriching uranium, but I do suspect that having international inspectors in Iran might be troublesome or even ineffective considering how they could have entirely secret sites to continue their enrichment program. At this point it's probably just delaying the inevitable, which is why Israel is so eager to initiate hostilities and bomb Iranian nuclear sites using Bush's ole preemptive strike option.

To me that option is simply far too excessive, especially given Israel's successful implementation of the Stuxnet computer virus to derail the hard work of the Iranian nuclear scientists.

[justicar5]

Only a fool or a willful propagandist would deny that the US and Iran share similar interests when it comes to combating ISIS.

That being said, the US has its allies Israel and Saudi Arabia to consider, as well as its consternation with Iran's Shi'a allies Hezbollah and Assad in Lebanon and Syria, respectively.

The problem here is monitoring and ensuring that the Iranian government's nuclear program contains uranium enrichment to a very small degree, certainly nowhere near anything that could be classified as weapons-grade (with isotope U-235 making up the majority of the content). In order to generate nuclear power, only 3-5% of isotope U-235 is necessary, whereas in natural uranium it is only about 1% of the make-up (the rest being U-238). I'm not even quite sure how far along the Iranians have come in enriching uranium, but I do suspect that having international inspectors in Iran might be troublesome or even ineffective considering how they could have entirely secret sites to continue their enrichment program. At this point it's probably just delaying the inevitable, which is why Israel is so eager to initiate hostilities and bomb Iranian nuclear sites using Bush's ole preemptive strike option.

To me that option is simply far too excessive, especially given Israel's successful implementation of the Stuxnet computer virus to derail the hard work of the Iranian nuclear scientists.

Theirs also the point that Iran has a legitimate reason to want nuclear weapons, a nuclear Israel is a clear threat to them, especially with the increasingly genocidal and apocalyptic rhetoric in Israeli politics. Iran is not any better, but they also aren't worse.

[alhoon]

Only a fool or a willful propagandist would deny that the US and Iran share similar interests when it comes to combating ISIS.

So... Republicans? Sorry. Couldn't resist.
I agree with the rest you said about having to juggle situation with ISIS with allies that are next to and threatened by Iran.

So in short, as far as Obama is concerned, cooperating against a couple of tens of thousands of militants riding armed pickup trucks is more important then preventing a nuclear arms race from picking up in the middle east.

No.
That's why the message to Iran was "Shape up so we can fight ISIS together!" He didn't extend an offer for alliance, he asked them to drop their nuclear ambitions so there can be an alliance against ISIS

[Caligula's_Horse]

No.
That's why the message to Iran was "Shape up so we can fight ISIS together!" He didn't extend an offer for alliance, he asked them to drop their nuclear ambitions so there can be an alliance against ISIS

But what do the Iranians need an alliance against ISIS for?

Sure, their methods are brutal and their ideology involves committing genocide, but in the end of the day, ISIS is still nothing more then a large militia that's got no proper military doctrine and whose staple piece of equipment is the technical. The minute they go up against a proper army in a ground war, they'll be decimated.
ISIS is only a real threat to a nation like Jordan, whose disgruntled populace doesn't like the ruling class and may be willing to switch sides, or like Iraq that had no proper military to speak of (on top of many of the western Sunni tribes being disgruntled and switching sides). Iran, being almost exclusively Shia, doesn't have much to worry about when it comes to its citizens defecting to ISIS, and while their army isn't the best out there, its more then enough to crush ISIS like the over-extended militia they are if they ever try anything involving Persia.

As for my feelings on the west's attitude towards Iran's nuclear ambitions however... Lets just say that by now I'm sure you've picked up on the fact that I see it as a much more substantial threat.
The world's never had a proper nuclear war, and as result people don't truly understand the gravity of nuclear arms. With any luck, it stays that way; saying "I told you so" won't be much comfort if I ever find myself breathing fallout.

[Roma_Victrix]

Under Netanyahu's ultraconservative and warhawk Likud Party, Israel certainly looks and sounds aggressive, but even they're not crazy enough to start a nuclear war. Their whole argument is to strike Iran (with everything but nuclear weapons) before Iran is capable of producing weapons grade enriched uranium. To that I vote no, because I have no interest in Israel dragging us, the United States, into a futile war with Iran. No thanks. I'd rather we make nice with the Iranians, kiss and make up over Mossadegh and the Revolution, and move forward with our multinational corporations setting up shop there to siphon the oil. Rest assured, you'd see a new awakening of something like the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Hopefully this time around the Iranians will have a suitable share in this as to not make them feel they are being swindled.

[KeyKhusro]

wow i was shocked by the news!

[Caligula's_Horse]

So in short, as far as Obama is concerned, cooperating against a couple of tens of thousands of militants riding armed pickup trucks is more important then preventing a nuclear arms race from picking up in the middle east.
I can tell you with confidence that in Israel, we're starting to feel like Czechoslovakia in 1938, and I'm sure the Saudis are feeling just as betrayed. You don't play around when it comes to nuclear weapons; even one of those things getting through can mean the end of a nation. ISIS is nothing compared to a nuclear war.

With any luck, the deal doesn't fall through (the one good thing a Republican congress is good for), and the next American administration after Obama will pick things up along a more militant line; or maybe Israel, Dubai and Saudi Arabia can put aside their differences for a change to fight a common foe. Better a conventional war now then a nuclear one later.

[hellheaven1987]

The message is like this:

Supreme Leader Khamenei: "Hey Americans, can we buy some Javelins?"

President Obama: "Obviously no, US doesn't deal with rogue state."

Supreme Leader Khamenei: "Oh come on, Republicans already sold us TOWs, American voters would not hate you more if you sell us some more ATGs."

President Obama: "Hmm that makes sense, I need some quick cash anyway."

[empr guy]

I'm pretty sure the deal would include lifting sanctions (gradually) which should help the Iranian economy, which most Iranians would enjoy. And the biggest threat to Iran afaik will be a bunch of people more then willing to conduct suicide bombings, so with such a large border with Iraq it's better to just keep ISIS there instead.

how nice it was from Obama to take the political risk and cost for that

As much as I like or dislike Iran I would love if they weren't some great Persian bogeyman anymore, I'm pretty sure most Americans would agree, if he actually works out a deal with Iran that ends their nuclear development it could be considered one of the high points of his presidency.

[Gaidin]

I hear there's a saying relevant to Iran and ISIS involving enemies of my enemies...but I can't quite put my finger on what it is. Either way you shouldn't act shocked alhoon.

[Big War Bird]

Somehow I don't think Iran is going to see the wisdom of giving up its alleged nuke program to get help from the USA in fighting ISIS, seeing as how it is the USA that is asking for the favor.

[Gaidin]

Somehow I don't think Iran is going to see the wisdom of giving up its alleged nuke program to get help from the USA in fighting ISIS, seeing as how it is the USA that is asking for the favor.

Somehow I doubt giving up the nuke program is part of fighting ISIS unless they just didn't want Iran there. Nuke program negotiations are their own thing. This is just, psst...hey...you attack from this direction while I bomb them, yo.

[alhoon]

As much as I like or dislike Iran I would love if they weren't some great Persian bogeyman anymore, I'm pretty sure most Americans would agree, if he actually works out a deal with Iran that ends their nuclear development it could be considered one of the high points of his presidency.

It would, but it's about as possible as it's for him, the president to eradicate poverty. There's simply too much stacked against removing the Persian bogeyman to turn the tables within 2 years. Or 5 years for that matter.

I hear there's a saying relevant to Iran and ISIS involving enemies of my enemies...but I can't quite put my finger on what it is. Either way you shouldn't act shocked alhoon.

I'm all for USA offering incentives to Iran to fight ISIS on the ground, but I believe (no sources, just what I get) that the majority of the Americans don't think that way.

Somehow I doubt giving up the nuke program is part of fighting ISIS unless they just didn't want Iran there. Nuke program negotiations are their own thing. This is just, psst...hey...you attack from this direction while I bomb them, yo.

None of the two involved countries wants that though. Too much bad blood for that.

[Gaidin]

I'm all for USA offering incentives to Iran to fight ISIS on the ground, but I believe (no sources, just what I get) that the majority of the Americans don't think that way.

Personally, I don't give a damn what Americans think. If Iran's ready to come to the table after 50 years of economic strangulation then more power to the Executive branch, whosoever happens to be sitting there. That's why he does the negotiations, not the legislative branch, even if they get to ratify it. The reason he's dodging the Senate is because the Republicans are being a roadblock instead of negotiating for the ratification in good faith.

[Big War Bird]

I do wonder if it is necessary to offer Iran anything. I wonder if it is possible to manipulate and maneuver ISIS into direct confrontation with Iran. In other words, make ISIS Iran's problem as much as it ours.

[Roma_Victrix]

Seeing how Iran is already investing heavily in propping up the rump Shia state in southern Iraq, plus the consideration of ISIS threatening Iran's ally Assad in Syria, I would say it already is their problem.