Hezbollah plot to "topple Lebanese government"

[bigfootedfred]

The United States has said there is "mounting evidence" that Syria,
Iran and Hezbollah are planning to topple the Lebanese government.
The White House said Syria hoped to stop the formation of an international tribunal
to try suspects in the killing of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri.

The BBC News website's world affairs correspondent Paul Reynolds
says the White House statement appears to result from the tense situation in Lebanon,
where Hezbollah is demanding one third of cabinet seats, thereby giving it a veto over decisions.

The statement also casts doubt on any willingness by the Bush administration
to consider Syria and Iran as potential partners over the future of Iraq

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6107224.stm

Just yesterday Israel was staging mock raids on Beirut.

[leeho730]

Not surprising. Bad for democratically elect Lebanese government.

There is no doubt that the world would be better off without Hezbollah.

[Erik]

I don't trust Hezbollah.
But I don't trust US "intelligence" either.

So I would like a more reliable source for this.

[danzig]

I don't trust Hezbollah.
But I don't trust US "intelligence" either.

So I would like a more reliable source for this.

Ok..
http://www.upi.com/InternationalInte...1-050115-1556r

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 1 (UPI) -- Prime Minister Fouad Siniora warned against pushing Lebanon to the abyss after Hezbollah has threatened to force his Cabinet's collapse by street protests.

"Taking matter to the verge of the abyss is not in the interests of anyone," Siniora said Wednesday, stressing that "we will resort to dialogue and consultations."

"Let no party think that it can be a winner because it is in nobody's interest for the country to collapse or become a struggle scene... Also, no party should try to push the other to a wall by saying 'either you take a certain decision or else...,'" Siniora added.

He stressed that Lebanon is passing through a very critical and sensitive phase that necessitates "patience, not tensions."

Hezbollah Secretary-General Seyed Hassan Nasrallah served a seven-day ultimatum to Siniora's government to resign and allow the formation of a national unity administration or he will force its collapse through street demonstrations.

[Crimson Scythe]

I think the US and Israeli intelligence services are blowing smoke up our collective...um...rear ends (yes, that should work ). There is no need for Hezbollah to overthrow the Lebanese government since they'll eventually be able to take power legally by popular vote, especially after the recent Israeli attacks. Hezbollah was seen as the only thing standing between the Lebanese people and destruction, since the Lebanese government was completely impotent.

As a parallel, the same thing happened in the Palestinian territories when they elected Hamas. Seems that the US and Israel don't want to see that happen again so they're creating an elaborate ruse to discredit Hezbollah in the eyes of the Lebanese voters, nothing more. Don't get me wrong, I think Hezbollah is a big threat to both Israeli and US interests in the region, and by extension to my own country, Turkey (well, one of my two countries), especially since they represent a more theocratic state that is the antithesis of Turkish ideology. But if you want a real democracy, you have to accept that sometimes the people don't choose who you, as an outsider, would like them to. And they're more likely to do just that if you keep interfering in their affairs.

[Erik]

There is no need for Hezbollah to overthrow the Lebanese government since they'll eventually be able to take power legally by popular vote, especially after the recent Israeli attacks.

I don't think they can ever gain >50% support like Hamas has because most of Lebanon isn't Shia and a lot of people in Lebanon are against terrorism even when defending their country.

Hezollah is probably more popular today than they will ever be.
And still having only minority support maybe they will want to use their recent (relative) popularity to seize control?

[Crimson Scythe]

I don't think they can ever gain >50% support like Hamas has because most of Lebanon isn't Shia and a lot of people in Lebanon are against terrorism even when defending their country.

Hezollah is probably more popular today than they will ever be.
And still having only minority support maybe they will want to use their recent (relative) popularity to seize control?

They only need 50% of the electorate. Think about it. Bush got into the Oval Office when only 30% of eligible voters voted for him (50.8% of the 61% voter turnout). As long as the Shia are more active voters AND Hezbollah portays itself as a defender of Lebanon (and not of Shia Islam), they will be a very viable party. All they need is a few swing voters to push them over the edge and into power, and their rebuilding efforts will certainly shift some of those voters into the Hezbollah camp.

Because an entity that uses democracy to get elected only to supress such democracy isnt exactly a 'democratic' goverment. Falling behind oh they were voted in hence its democracy does not make it so.

This is one of the biggest flaws in democratic systems. People can always democratically vote to abandon democracy. It's kind of a chance that everybody knows exists, but one that nobody wants or likes to acknowledge. The US and other 'western' democracies actually limit their democratic ideals through the system of checks and balances to prevent such a thing from happening. Ironic, no? :hmmm:

[darthtator]

I seriously doubt this will happen, the popular mentality of the Lebanese people during the war was actually anti-Hezbollah. After the war ended, foerigners have started to introduce the idea of "Hezbollah was the only thing protecting Lebanon during the war". But during the war, I was in constant contact with all of my Lebanese brothers and sisters, and everyone I talked to said one thing "I want Hezbollah out! Send them anywhere, but they do not belong in Lebanon!". Western news agencies and intelligence will report Hezbollah is likely to get large support next elections, but if the ex-pats vote (I believe their is legislation just short of being passed to allow this), then Hezbollah will actually lose a certain percentage of votes. To say that Hezbollah has enough backing in Lebanon to be elected as a legit government, then that would assume there is a Shia majority (and religion has not been included in the census since 1932) as well as the other 18 religious entities in Lebanon would be effectively silenced. Hezbollah also recently threatned to resign from government, and popular Lebanese opinion reflects that this is what the Lebanese want. The whole backing issue takes into account religion, and that is pretty much one thing you NEVER talk to a Lebanese about.

^^ sorry Erik, I was typing when you posted that. I agree with your statement, every Lebanese Muslim I have talked to (including my gf) is Sunni, and they're the most vocal in general about Lebanon. All the religions and cultures live peacefully side by side in Lebanon and EVERYONE that is a true Lebanese is against war especially after having the civil war, Israeli occupation and now the July war in recent memory.

[sephodwyrm]

It is sad when terrorists clean up after themselves better than conventional armies, though.

[Carach]

an armed organisation like hezbollah, it would be silly not to take power (they have most power as it is..but total power..)

they dont even have to overthrow, all they have to do is get an election and they win..

[Tom Paine]

Which means they aren't plotting to overthrow the government any more than the Conservatives are... and we don't worry about the Tories doing it.

[Carach]

You consider the tories of Britain, terrorists?

the tories arent terrorists and they dont have the control of many thousands of armed religious fanaticals grim, they also do not preache the annihilation of israel, america and the west... that is the difference.

[Tom Paine]

Carach, that difference isn't at contention here; the fact is Hizbullah and the Tories are both probably going to be trying legal methods for overthrow of the government, ie, democracy. We want democracy in the Middle East, can we cry foul when they don't elect who we want?

[LSJ]

I believe that Hezbollah would go the democratic route. They already have a political section, and with popular support they could win. (besides, they know that militarism wouldn't work - it may terrorize Israelis successfully, but it can't make a stable gov't beside a country that hates them)
I hate the hypocrisy of supporting democracy yet toppling democratic governments because the party you didn't like won. So if they do win, the US better get a valid reason to invade and stick by it. for once

[danzig]

I believe that Hezbollah would go the democratic route. They already have a political section, and with popular support they could win.
I hate the hypocrisy of supporting democracy yet toppling democratic governments because the party you didn't like won. So if they do win, the US better get a valid reason to invade and stick by it. for once

Because an entity that uses democracy to get elected only to supress such democracy isnt exactly a 'democratic' goverment. Falling behind oh they were voted in hence its democracy does not make it so.

[Carach]

the tories are a legitimate political party though, hezbollah are merely a militant group - its like allowing nazis into german parliament.

[Tom Paine]

Hezbollah have a political wing. "merely" really doesn't cover it if they have a political wing, they have as much right as anyone else to try for power democratically.

[Carach]

Hezbollah have a political wing. "merely" really doesn't cover it if they have a political wing, they have as much right as anyone else to try for power democratically.

they forfeit that right when they carried out terrorist acts.

however like said, they dont need to overthrow anything, they can win through conventional means which technically is not illegal, so there is little anyone can do about it when the people are electing them..

[Tom Paine]

Hamas has not suppressed democracy, and we have no reason to believe Hezbollah, a "similar" organisation, would not follow the same route.

[sephodwyrm]

Hezbollah have a political wing. "merely" really doesn't cover it if they have a political wing, they have as much right as anyone else to try for power democratically.

So the Hizballah plot to topple Lebanese government is to be attractive to the Lebanese who would vote for them?