Rumors that KJU isn't in control of NK anymore (Maybe false)

[Denny Crane!]

In this report it suggests that Kim Jong Un is a puppet and no longer in control, if he ever was, in the new regime.

I don't think this is to far fetched given the strength of the military and you know, the do, no one with a haircut like that is truly in control.

But further than that it details reports that there are two factions within the controlling group that either want to maintain total authoritarian control or exploit some more open markets to enrich and empower themselves further. This kind of absolute machievellian juxtapose seems to fit North Korea what with the complete absence of a single humanitarian thought.

Further to this is evidence that people are gaining access to limited amounts of foreign goods resources and more importantly media and that fashion has started to be followed in a limited way.

Is it possible the next few decades could see North Korea revert to something like China was in the 70's? Do you think China is involved in this shift? Allowing a more functional economy does stabilise the regime somewhat and allow them a proper buffer that won't accidentally drop a nuke on them because the insane leader decides not enough people there have his haircut.

(speculative thread belongs in academy - not current politics).

(any "news" confirmed or not, it's the 'pit-but depending on how the thread goes we could switch back to the academy-Garb.)

[alhoon]

http://entertainment.ie/life/Kim-Jon...ore/298031.htm

The gist:
"It's been a strange few weeks for Kim Jong-un, as the latest reports from North Korea suggest he's no longer in control of the country at all.
...
According to what Vice are reporting, Jang Jin-sung, a former senior North Korean official who worked as part of the previous leader's propaganda machine, has said that the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) have stopped taking orders from Kim Jong-un.

...

there were rumours earlier this week on China's social network, Weibo, claiming that a coup had already taken place, although they were later denied, while Jang claims that the OGD is control and Kim Jong-un is a mere puppet leader."


Hmmm... smells kinda funny. I don't think KJU would give control without a fight. I believe that there are shifts in the balance of power and his health problems may have been seen as a weakness with enemies posing for attack, but I doubt he's a puppet leader yet for that, as for me, previously unheard of "all powerful" OGD.

[Denny Crane!]

What fight can one man give to generals exactly? Wet tissue throwing?

[Garbarsardar]

The truth is that there are simply no reliable sources of information about happenings in NK. Judging from past disappearances, KJU is probably sick, it's probably gout, that runs in the family. Don't forget that North Korea "is on the brink of collapse" every other month.

[Shambloc]

The truth is that there are simply no reliable sources of information about happenings in NK. Judging from past disappearances, KJU is probably sick, it's probably gout, that runs in the family. Don't forget that North Korea "is on the brink of collapse" every other month.

There are a lot of people invested in preventing a general collapse of North Korea, which is one of the most dangerous scenarios in the region.

However, as you said nobody knows for sure what is happening there, except for the North Koreans and possibly the Chinese Government. Neither of whom will talk. Though if there was a coup there is the hope it can institute a Diang Xianping style reform that may lead to eventual reunification with the South. That is only a long shot hope though.

[Napoleonic Bonapartism]

Though if there was a coup there is the hope it can institute a Diang Xianping style reform that may lead to eventual reunification with the South. That is only a long shot hope though.

It's either that or some near apocalyptic event whereby North Korea either is invaded, or falls apart internally - which would lead to some kind of social anarchy. Lets hope they get their Diang Xianping - because they can't last forever.

[nemgod]

I always considered that the new Kim was just a mere puppet given his age and inexperience. The inner circle of the father was not just going to bow their heads to a twenty something year old who is just living off his father's legacy. What this all depends is on what the two groups are like. Are they both splinter factions of the status quo for North Korea. Or will the anti Kim Jong Un faction actually be open to reforms or not.

[Condottiere 40K]

It's been speculated that Kim's health problems were gout brought about by a huge appetite, or they could have broken his ankles so that he can't run far.

[Astaroth]

Honestly, I don't trust any news about or from NK anymore. It's a constant carousel of contradictory reports and inaccurate predictions -- NK has now access to ICBM (lol), NK sent a rocket into space, NK wants to re-unite with the south, the new Kim is a lot more progressive and wants to decrease tensions, suddenly we are firing rockets again, ships are getting attacked again, the wartime "we will nuke everyone" rhetoric is back, suddenly we are back at the negotiation table, fat boy's uncle gets killed (eaten by dogs? false rumours), perhaps young Kim is a hardliner after all, maybe there was a coup, group X in the govt is now pulling the strings, Kim is sick, allowing others to take over, or perhaps they are responsible for his sickness, suddenly high ranking NK politicians are visiting the south again etc.

I wouldn't be surprised no matter what happens. It's quite possible that NK will suddenly talk about opening up the country and reunification, only to threaten to nuke DC 2 days later. That country is an asylum and I honestly have zero hope for any change happening there.

[Makrell]

I dont think this is the case. KJU's faction is probably still in control. he might be a puppet of some generals in his faction but they wont have overthrown him.

[Condottiere 40K]

Legitimacy to rule is based on the divinity of the Kim dynasty. At least in the mind of the proletariat.

[Charrua]

Legitimacy to rule is based on the divinity of the Kim dynasty. At least in the mind of the proletariat.

From that point of view, considering that he would have much less mettle than his father, and almost zero compared with his grandfather, that idea would fare better in a '1984'-ish way of maintaining the 'great leader' deception.

They'd have him like a hostage and merely a facade to the military overlords. Even this 'disappearing' would make sense with my conjecture, since it could mean a re-education of who he serves now, and about his (new) real purpose.

[Napoleonic Bonapartism]

I heard that Kim is addicted to Swiss emmental, a taste he acquired in his school days, and that he even sent a group to Switzerland to gather the recipe. They were without success, and he has been importing vast quantities as a result, this is the root of his current health problems.
As for his control I find it unlikley he ever wields Supreme Control, like any semi-feudal kind of states the nobles - in this case the army - only obey in as much as it is in their interests to do so. No doubt he has a strong and loyal faction, but their will always be dissent in the ranks, and I don't mean just the lower orders. Lets hope this 'open-market' faction takes control, as it will start a chain of events outside of their control, just look at China. In the end I think we're looking at reunification - in the long term - if a powerful open-market force dominates the North and begins modernisation.

[Garbarsardar]

I heard that Kim is addicted to Swiss emmental, a taste he acquired in his school days, and that he even sent a group to Switzerland to gather the recipe. They were without success, and he has been importing vast quantities as a result, this is the root of his current health problems.

I heard that too and it's a bit strange because gout is mostly influenced by genetics and second diary consumption alleviates the symptoms, so emmental seems to be innocent here.

[Napoleonic Bonapartism]

I heard that too and it's a bit strange because gout is mostly influenced by genetics and second diary consumption alleviates the symptoms, so emmental seems to be innocent here.

Can't help with the old obesitiy whatever way you look at it.
Apparently Gout is one among many ailments of Kim Jong-un. A source says;

I understand that he is suffering from gout along with hyperuricemia, hyperlipidemia, obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure.

Whilst the dairy may relieve one it may not help the others by the looks of things...
Not in the best condition to defend his leadership it would seem.

[Dr Zoidberg]

Interesting that around the same time rumours start of KJU being MIA, two senior DPRK military officials make an official, last minute visit to Seoul to discuss the restablishment of high-level talks.

North and South Korea have agreed to resume formal high-level talks that had effectively been suspended since February, reports from South Korea say.

The agreement came during a surprise visit to South Korea by North Korean officials for the closing ceremony of the Asian Games.

The visit was led by two top-ranking North Korean officials seen as close aides to leader Kim Jong-un.

Both sides were said to have agreed to meet again within the next few weeks.

Hwang Pyong-so, seen as the second-most powerful man in North Korea, held talks with Ryoo Kihl-jae, the South's reunification minister, on Saturday after flying to Incheon to attend the sporting event.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29489134

[Napoleonic Bonapartism]

Coincidence? - perhaps, but it is starting to link up. Kim may get caught out whilst eating his emmental. A bit more evidence may confirm if something is afoot.
If talks are being conducted then it could suggest that this open-market faction has large influence, that the No.2 is at the talks could suggest he is in this faction. Interesting times for North Korea.

[Biggles]

Something's up in North Korea. One could argue that there always is, really, what with the planning for World Domination and what not, but recently there's been some interesting buzzing around by them uniform-lovers over there.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/04/wo...tml?hpt=ias_c2

Kim Jong Un has been conspicuously absent even from important state events, and Pyongyang officials have said Kim is "suffering from discomfort." The last times he was seen publicly, he had gained weight and developed a limp.

He missed the Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea's Parliament. A prominent seat remained empty onstage, surrounded by North Korea's top brass.
A count of North Korean announcements about Kim's public appearances went from 24 events in July to 16 in August -- then to just one event in September. His last listed public appearance was a September 4 concert.

There's even some talk that there's been a coup, ousting Kim and replacing him with his sister, yes, sister, that seemed to pop out of nowhere some years back.

I guess there's just the waiting game as usual. As some analysts' has rightly claimed, it could just be the illness getting in the way of his PR-stuff. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[Condottiere 40K]

One theory for increased security at the exit points was that someone high up wanted to defect.

[Napoleonic Bonapartism]

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/north-korea...ed-off-1468384

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un may have been spirited out of Pyongyang amid reports the capital city of the Stalinist regime has gone into lockdown.
Details are scant but watchers of the Hermit Kingdom said the fact nobody is being let in or out of Pyongyang is highly significant and could point towards a coup plot.
But it is not known if it means that a coup is unfolding or is being crushed by the Kim Jong-un.

That a delegation has gone to the South at the same time as all this, and given Kim's fiery escalations over the years - not suggestive of peaceful intent - could suggest a coup of sorts. Are his lastest health problems just the opportunity the plotters have been waiting for?

Edit: One report in the Daily Mail (so I can't vouch for it) says that the Leader was ousted in 2013. This suggests Kim once did have control, but that he has been ousted, could all this wild dog execution stuff be linked - perhaps he supported Kim, not opposed him. Pure speculation on my part. If there has been a coup I'm not sure what this lockdown is all about - a purge perhaps? Any thoughts?