Total War games are infamous for having... odd... diplomacy. Allies backstab with alarming regularity. TATW makes this less likely by requiring alliances be cancelled before attacks can happen, but it doesn't completely solve the problem.
Like most things in Total War, diplomatic decisions by the AI seem to have a random element, affected by various modifiers. If you understand the modifiers, you can have less frustrating diplomatic interactions with the AI, but there will always be a slight random element. As such, advice on diplomacy is about increasing
probabilities, not creating
certainties.
Please bear that in mind.
First, the basic workings of diplomacy and relations are rational. However, unlike diplomacy in the real world, the AI has no concept of norms and customs. It calculates entirely on self-interest. This is modified, somewhat, by the relations standing between two factions, and by factions' reputations.
So, without further ado, a run-down of the modifiers on Diplomacy - I'm sorry I can't quantify the relative impact of each.
1. Reputation - the better your reputation, the easier diplomacy is. The worse, the harder. (
Link to a good guide)
Short summary of effects on Reputation Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
2. Relations standing - the more a faction likes you, the more likely they are to agree to diplomatic proposals. There are so many ways to improve your standing that I won't list them all, most of them are pretty obvious (giving them things, having trade rights or an alliance with them, attacking their enemies, helping them in battles, etc, etc.)
3. Culture/Religion - There is a penalty to relations standing, and hence diplomacy, between factions with different cultures/religions.
You can do nothing about this. This is unavoidable in relations between the 'good' factions: the 'evil' factions don't have this problem.
4. Strength - What really matters here is relative strength: if you are stronger than the faction you are negotiating with, they will be more inclined to co-operate; if they are stronger, they will be less inclined.
Alliances and effects on calculations of strength
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
5. Goals- you aren't the only one with goals. The AI has goals, too. Sometimes if your diplomat is good enough, the diplomacy screen will give you a clue to what they are under "Desires".
Desires Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Why the AI attacks... Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
6. Money - Every possible diplomatic offer has a value assigned to it by the AI; this value is modified by all the above points. There is
always a quantity of money you can add to an offer to make the AI accept... however, many times this quantity will greatly exceed your ability to pay. The AI prefers lump sums, but they will consider tribute/turn offers. There does seem to be a reduced perception of value the longer the duration you offer. A
great diplomat can reduce this balancing sum, but the effect isn't that impressive.
That's a basic overview of how diplomacy works, but how do you use it?
Well, the first thing you should bear in mind is how very, very, helpful it is to keep a good reputation. That, combined with getting as many alliances as possible with the other factions on your 'side', which also helps improve your reputation, makes your game much easier because it reduces the chance of being backstabbed and makes diplomatic initiatives cheaper and easier - even with enemies, if you so desire.
Offering to attack rebels as a gift and then attacking them is a great and easy way to improve relations and reputation quite dramatically,
without having to give away money or land.
---An alliance that also shares military access is very unlikely to be broken and much more likely to actively help you.---
Easy ways to get the AI to agree to Military Access: Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Don't give a settlement to an ally unless you have military access, otherwise the garrison you had in the settlement must either be disbanded or it will trespass if you try to move it.
Some players suggest giving settlements between you and your enemies to distant allies. I never do this, as I believe it is cheap and 'gamey'. Also, to the best of my knowledge there is no expiration on the Reputation penalty for taking back a settlement you gave away. If you owned it, gave it away, and it ends up back in your possession, you suffer a very substantial penalty to your reputation. I do not believe that it matters if a third party conquers it first. However, this is something you can do if you like.
The AI will almost always honour promises they make to you to attack a faction, however getting them to make such a promise in the first place can be... challenging. Give them something they really want and probably quite a lot of money.
The AI is often inclined to make peace after suffering major defeats - whether this is due to 'shock' or just due to the reduction in relative strength, I do not know. The AI is also more inclined to make peace if they end up in more than one war. This can be very useful for some factions, such as Dale. Once Rhun joins an Invasion against Gondor, they are at war with Dale and Gondor, and possibly the Dwarves. Destroy a stack or two of theirs, then offer them peace terms... they very well may be willing to negotiate. Dale can almost always benefit from some time at peace.
The AI will also
usually (
(but I have seen it be stubborn sometimes) make peace if they don't share a border with you and don't absolutely detest you. Sometimes, also, when you are playing a "Good" faction and have an Invasion called on you, an AI you were at peace with will join the Invasion, making them be at war with you. When the Invasion is over, they may very well be willing to accept a Ceasefire. Regardless of the reasons, when the AI really
wants to make peace with you it is often possible to extract quite a bit of money from them, either in a lump sum or especially in a per turn tribute.
Do note: if the Tribute is so high that it causes the AI to begin to run low on funds, it may start a war with you just to end the Tribute! In this case, it is often willing to negotiate a Ceasefire again soon.
Diplomats aren't worth wasting too much time trying to improve, since the effect of their skill level is minimal, but if you want to know how to do it...
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Finally, good reputation, good relations, plentiful alliances, and a good diplomat can all make a real difference to the cost of buying settlements. Sometimes your allies will take land you want. Buying it from them, while expensive, is a better option than attacking them. The more careful you've been with your diplomacy up to that point, the less it should cost you - though it still won't be cheap.
Final Thoughts
Diplomacy should form a key part of your strategy. You should work to keep your allies alive, keep them happy with you, and keep them at war with your enemies. Securing trade rights with neighbouring factions (or factions that you have 'sea' access to) will help both of you in staying in funds. This is especially important as a cash-strapped AI is a more aggressive AI and thus more likely to randomly backstab someone, possibly you or another one of your allies.
Contrary to popular belief the AI does not have 'unlimited' money. The Money Script only gives them enough that they don't go broke, but starting in the mid-game it really isn't enough money to build much; so anything you can do to keep your allies in coin is worth doing, so long as it doesn't set you back too much. Not only will it keep them happy, it will make them better able to assist you against your enemies (who, hopefully, you can find ways to make go broke

).
In the next instalment we will explore economic planning and strategy as well as dig into understanding character development for both governors and generals! Meanwhile, suggestions, feedback, and questions are appreciated.
This section is tentatively 'done', but I'm open to adding more if people want it, clearing up unclear points, and generally just revising it from time to time. Not least because I've been writing with a 102F fever... so I'm sure it's not as well-written as I think it is at the moment. Still, I hope it's helpful!