ISIL War in Iraq and Syria

[Love Mountain]

Some of the leaders are former Syrian army officers themselves. If the ISIS can from the crude government they have and still be fine, i am sure the Hazzm movement can do even better. The Syrian National Coalition (which HM is apart of) has Syrian lawmakers in it.

What a strong endorsement. I can see how we would want to emulate that.

[Vanoi]

What a strong endorsement. I can see how we would want to emulate that.

Nice strawman, but you can do better than that. Considering the FSA aren't anything like the ISIS i doubt they will copy the same time of "government"

[Love Mountain]

Nice strawman, but you can do better than that. Considering the FSA aren't anything like the ISIS i doubt they will copy the same time of "government"

So like Assad 2.0?

[Treize]

Weapons and money going to the FSA can change that.


His words are from over a year ago and the situation he is describing no longer exists.

So basically the FSA is or, according to you, should be a proxy force taking orders from their foreign backers (i.e. USA or worse, KSA)?

[Vanoi]

So like Assad 2.0?

There isn't an "Assad" among the rebels who could take that position. So a one-man dictatorship is not likely.

So basically the FSA is or, according to you, should be a proxy force taking orders from their foreign backers (i.e. USA or worse, KSA)?

Whats with all the starwmans today? The US itself has said other than providing weapons and training, its the rebel's choice. They pick their leaders and choose what to do.

[Mary The Quene]

No it would be another Libya

[Treize]

There isn't an "Assad" among the rebels who could take that position. So a one-man dictatorship is not likely.


Whats with all the starwmans today? The US itself has said other than providing weapons and training, its the rebel's choice. They pick their leaders and choose what to do.

You say money and weapons can change the authority of that expat club.

One would assume what you were trying to say was that taking orders from the expat club would have to be a condition imposed on the rebels by their foreign suppliers in order to recieve supplies.
That would reduce the rebels to a proxy force for the USA and KSA. (Ofcourse we all know in reality it has been just that right from the beginning.)

[Vanoi]

You say money and weapons can change the authority of that expat club.

They have no authority because they control no land and the land they do control is only controlled by lightly-armed rebel groups.

Come on. You and I both know if you don't have an army in Syria you don't have authority.

One would assume what you were trying to say was that taking orders from the expat club would have to be a condition imposed on the rebels by their foreign suppliers in order to recieve supplies.
That would reduce the rebels to a proxy force for the USA and KSA. (Ofcourse we all know in reality it has been just that right from the beginning.)

Imposing conditions is not taking orders. The entire point in giving orders is that there is no other choice. The rebels do have a choice. They don't have to take the money and guns from the US. But if they do they have to follow a few conditions like not letting the weapons fall into enemy hands, don't use them against civilians ect.

Other than that the way the war is fought, the actions the FSA takes, and the government they set up is all their choice. US has no control.


A better example of a proxy force owuld be some of the brigades in the Islamic Front.

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

His words are from over a year ago and the situation he is describing no longer exists.

That is painfull to hear for me because I study history.
On a serious note Vanoi: it was clear statement about chemical weapons and the future seen by "a moderate".
Assad had/has chemical weapons (against nuclear power Israel) but part of it is in hands of rebels of all kinds. We have seen here videos of rebels using them: walkie talkie 'SARIN SARIN!' and then white clouds on the position he is looking at?
Is it not sad that the most moderate rebel leaders want a state based on the Koran in a MULTY-RELIGIOUS STATE???

The good thing about Assad is he stands for the rights and lives of the minorities. Maybe he was a bit hard on the sunnis (aka moslim brotherhood) but then again these people aren't happy on every corner of this globe (and btw his wife is sunni so i guess he dont hate them). So it became a sunni holy war against the 'evil dictator' (in their eyes, and picked up by the western media because of the hidden agenda of western powers). But if you ask Shia Syrians, Kurds, Christians, Druze and Alawites what they think of this conflict: they will be positive about Assad (see here on the forums, on facebook, syrian forums of orthodox christians etc). Sunnis are a majority in Syria hence the succes of the rebels in the beginning. But the support to Assad (from inside and outside) was too strong. In a succesfull overtrow of Assad he would have been replaced by a failed state where the minorities were in the middle of the chaos or by a sunni dictator or clique. At first i had some sympathy for the rebels, but then the spring turned in a summer and the summer in a winter. And now the 'rebels' turned and/or were replaced by terrorist organisations (because government support > rebels support).
As a western guy who has sympathy for the minorities in Syria and has ties with them I support the only man who can save their lives and who is the lesser evil in this war. REALPOLITIK!

I completly lost fate in the rebelion when Lybia became a failed state, a country close to Europe and has ties with them. Helped in their struggle and still IT WAS A FAILURE!

[Simon Cashmere]

So we give weapons and money to ISIS, our own insane Islamic army, point them in the direction of Assad, hope it works out. They decide to make a right turn into Iraq, and OMG, beheadings on the news, terrorists everywhere, they are planning plots in every allied state - Australia, UK and the US - and we need to send a whole lot of troops, er not troops, only planes - right there right now - every ally raises terror level to highest since 9/11.

I'm no fan of Islam or these guys as people know - but I think I'd just reinforce Kuwait and Saudi (we cant have them controlling the world's oil) and see what happens. We cannot afford another war - we just cannot, we could not afford the ones we went into with Afghanistan and Iraq.

It just seems like a stage managed op much like the 'case for war' was in Iraq. Yeah these guys are bad guys, but, I'd just black ops them where I could and otherwise - don't get involved. It will just be another clusterfubar like every other mission we've had in that region. We know how to go to war - we long ago forgot how to win them.

Assad's problem is not that he's a dictator - the US has plenty of friends who are dictators. His problem is he is friends with the Russians - and what this whole Syria episode taught me was that the US hates Russia more than Al Quada or any Islamic extremist. It just re-brands them as 'moderates' and sends them to attack Assad.

[athanaric]

Assad's problem is not that he's a dictator - the US has plenty of friends who are dictators. His problem is he is friends with the Russians - and what this whole Syria episode taught me was that the US hates Russia more than Al Quada or any Islamic extremist. It just re-brands them as 'moderates' and sends them to attack Assad.

You're right, but I just want to point out that the irrational hatred is there on both sides. Though in the US, I think it's mostly the elites.

[Request a new user name]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-strikes-syria

Well its official. JAN and IS are buds again. If Obama had not started the strikes they would have been killing each other. Now ISA is posed to return to Idlib Province.

Oops!

If Islamic Front joins with JAN and IS, FSA is screwed and will follow shortly afterward just to survive. Well the spark has been lit by Zarqawi, Assad and Maliki fanned the fire, and now Obama grabbed a can of kerosene from Iran instead of a water bucket from Turkey and threw it on the fire.

Throughout this Turkey sits back and waits for this mess to burn out and solve its PKK problem at the same time. Unlike Obama they know when to do nothing. The last thing Turkey wants is to appear remotely on Assad's side, that will fanned the fire even worse and open their land to open season fighting which they would like to avoid as its bad for business and plain stupid when IS is not an existential threat to them.

Another example is Tokugawa Ieyasu. The man became Shogun not by killing everyone who challenged him, or wronged him, or by feat of arms, but by knowing when to sit on his ass and do nothing such as the Korean Campaign.

[Mangalore]

...

Lets be honest the man strikes fear into the west the guy is a dam badass he has the balls to destroy his enemy with the most brutal weapons i like this very much go assad.
...

He strikes fear into the west because he is pretty weak and we have little grasp about the internal machinations of the old guard from his father that prop him up...

[white-wolf]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-strikes-syria

Well its official. JAN and IS are buds again. If Obama had not started the strikes they would have been killing each other. Now ISA is posed to return to Idlib Province.

Oops!

If Islamic Front joins with JAN and IS, FSA is screwed and will follow shortly afterward just to survive. Well the spark has been lit by Zarqawi, Assad and Maliki fanned the fire, and now Obama grabbed a can of kerosene from Iran instead of a water bucket from Turkey and threw it on the fire.

I belive, I want, I pray that IF will not join ISIS. JAN or AN is AQ basically and they are a little bit modarete from ISIS. But, if IF joins to ISIS it means everbody in the region and the world are screwed.

[Senex]

Do you have a source for this or any other of your posts? If not, I will have to assume that your information cannot be verified and have to be read with a maximum degree of caution.

It's all over the media and rebels are confirming it.

[Derpy Hooves]

You guys are expecting a lot from a post Gaddafi Libya. Just look at how much France had to go through before they had a stable democracy. Reign of Terror ring any bells?

[Condottiere 40K]

Assad's too tainted to rule a reunited Syria, but he won't let go of the power, and his camp has no viable alternative. He caused this mess, and then deliberately exasperated it.

At some point, the Americans will deliver him an ultimatum, once they've suppressed the Daeshii enough.

[Request a new user name]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...internalSearch

White Wolf is smiling at the irony of YPG's true colors.

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

You guys are expecting a lot from a post Gaddafi Libya. Just look at how much France had to go through before they had a stable democracy. Reign of Terror ring any bells?

I see your point but Syria is a another context (minorities vs majority, holy war, extremists, etc) this will not lead to a democracy but to an Islamic state.. sadly.

[Derpy Hooves]

I see your point but Syria is a another context (minorities vs majority, holy war, extremists, etc) this will not lead to a democracy but to an Islamic state.. sadly.

I'm glad someone sees my point
I can see how you're concerned, but frankly, that concern hasn't really been proven correctly yet. In Libya, despite how little power the Libyan parliament has over the country, it is still not an Islamic state. I am hopeful that the same situation will not happen in Syria, in the case of a moderate rebel victory (although unlikely at this stage). However, if an unpopular government is formed, then Syria will likely go back to a civil war until it finds something favorable.