ISIL War in Iraq and Syria

[Condottiere 40K]

US policy tends to ping pong when they think they had their fingers burnt, if you consider the loss of Vietnam and the destruction of the Warsaw Pact and liberation of Kuwait as part of the pendulum swing.

[Basil II the B.S]

I see it differently. I see it as two sides of the same medal. Where Bush had nearly a decade of bad-cop policy, while Obama used good-cop policy, which was much needed as the American populace had more than enough of the Bush era.

The US deepstate needed a new more friendly face, as much as it needed before the boots on the ground to effectively get rid of Saddam.

I dont think that the Obama policies are so much on Obama's behalf. I think he was the right man at the right time to enter a new stage of drone warfare and twitter revolutions, and where the during the Bush era pesky American oppositional left would be lured under the Obama umbrella with some minor goodies like gayrights and what resembles but still is inactive healthcare reform(Etc). All so real bread and butter issues like the financial-system or the surveillance state are left untouched.

I also think he played an important and succesful role in undermining Europe. As dire as the 2008 situation was for the US, as well USA has now settled itself in this new era, very effectively using financial warfare, twitter revolutions, and PR to weaken their competition and make them essentially client-states who work now against their own interests and on American behalf.

USA wouldnt have survived another Bush.

Well I agree about the new face thing, I'm arguing more about the results obtained.
Bush wasted tons of money but achieved the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama lost Iraq and will eventually lose Afghanistan as well.
Meanwhile the Arabic world is finally regaining the strong leadership they needed to pursue their plans.
Bush would have carpet bombed Iraq, Syria and Lybia and wasted even more money in occupations, Obama is letting the Caliphate grow.
The twitter revolutions and PR crap might work for dumb Americans who can claim they are the good side, but it isn't really working where it was really aimed and that's the Middle East. He gained some at home to lose a lot abroad, and the worst is yet to come.

[Thorn777]

It was succesful in setting the middle-east a flame(see my thread in the PA about the Pivot of History). I dont think the motive was setting up all types of freshly liberal democracies in the ME. No one knowing the demographics and trends of recent decades would believe these would ever come about(see Egypt). And the CIA etc certainly know such trends and demographics.

USA just like UK/GB have a long history of backing radical islamic movements and governments. I see these movements as Islamo-facist movements similar to our northern traditional facists like Gladio-B, Stay Behind, Svoboda etc. As vile as they appear. They assure that they stand opposed to the other opposing spheres like Russia, Iran and Shiitism in general.

The original ME aim always was defeating Nasserism as a power in itself, controlling the oil production and securing the petro-dollar, which it all did a long time ago. But to really consolidate the wide region, sepscially long term more steps where needed. Like getting rid of the last former Pan-Arabic leaders like Saddam, Khadaffi and Assad. All these quasi nationalistic economies are now in utter chaos.

The chaos itself is good. But even better when you can influence or even dictate the new conditions once the chaos settles. I mean with all the panic we are talking 20-30k toyota equipped dudes. If NATO with Turkey etc and the Saudi's stop funding then the jig is up.

Also the twitter revolutions where also sucessful in getting liberal minded people across the ME on the streets, emposing a picture among western populaces that militaric efforts here would be worthwhile. I think its very clever. Using the ignorance but goodwill of the masses.

[Basil II the B.S]

Not that I disagree with anything you said, but, correct me if I'm wrong, from your picture, you don't expect the chaos to hit America back anytime soon.
I do.

[Treize]

Seems like letting Kobane fall is all part of the Great Game.

If the place falls the Turks will invade up to 38km landinward. This will allow them to prevent the formation of a Kurdish autonomous entity and provide a safe-haven for their terrorist auxiliaries.


EDIT:


Oh wow, ISIS playing along the script just beautifully!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...tal-civil-war/

Claims ISIS took soldier at the tombs which Turkey claims is an exclave hostage.

[Mary The Quene]

It seems that Jobar and Ayn Terma are on the verge of falling to the Republican guards. If Jobar would fall that would mean a strategic victory but also a huge symbolic one

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/...ma-jobar-next/

A NFZ would be a very bad idea by Turkey

[Treize]

It seems that Jobar and Ayn Terma are on the verge of falling to the Republican guards. If Jobar would fall that would mean a strategic victory but also a huge symbolic one

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/...ma-jobar-next/

Note that they speak of Wadi Ayn Terma, this is probably the "wadi" (sort of valley in this case) between Dukhaniyya/Jaramana and Ayn Terma.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33...n-Terma-Valley

[UselessPoster]

I fully support assad, let him use his chemical weapons on ISIL.



Lets be honest the man strikes fear into the west the guy is a dam badass he has the balls to destroy his enemy with the most brutal weapons i like this very much go assad.


(Indeed it was all sarcasm assad is benefiting from this ISIL situation which is clever because he will help the west take out ISIL which will benefit him).

[Request a new user name]

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/isi...&NewsCatID=352

Considering ISA artillery is placed in the open in broad daylight says this is just token, "See we helped," YPG was doomed anyway.

Three air strikes in Iraq destroyed four ISIL armed vehicles and a "fighting position" southwest of Arbil

...

Moving on: http://www.dailysabah.com/mideast/20...ian-rebels-say

Vague, but it confirms an ISA offensive in Hasakah.

Any event:

While US strikes destroyed some cottage refineries that were being phased out anyway, they did not hit the main processing plants and the oil wells themselves citing environmental concerns. This means the cash flow is not interrupted as IS can still sell crude, and with the main processing plants unhit, they can still refine gasoline.

But strikes against the grain silos operated by the IS are illegal and given many Syrians rely on the grain given out by said silos the US is further convincing Sunnis they have no human rights as far as America is concerned and that the US will overlook Assad's genocide against them, but attack IS who is providing essential services and food aid to them, despite whatever they may think of its harsh interpretation of Islam.

Lets remember folks, the Sunnis are the ones we are trying to convince to reject IS. Siding with Assad implicititly means we share in the blood spilt by him and thus we are equally guilty of said crimes, which convinces more Sunnis IS is the group to side with because it at least stands for the Sunnis and is not corrupt.

The recent mass defection to IS by FSA holdouts in Raqqah should make this clear. They were to be part of a joint FSA/JAN/YPG offensive into Raqqah that was being planned when USAF hit JAN HQ and killed the planners including two senior Islamic Front Commanders. Oops! The correct response to IS was to simply stay out of the conflict and let it burn out. By getting involved we came across to the Sunnis as Iran and Assad' Air Force which is true if not what Obama may have intended.

And Obama still does not have a strategy to achieve a victory and he is still not all the way in, so he is wasting time and money for nothing and alienating the very people he needs to convince to reject IS.

[Mary The Quene]

Do you have any source that these main 'rebels' have defected to ISIS in raqqah? You have linked the template map of wikipedia but it has not been sourced on their talk page

[DarthLazy]

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/isi...&NewsCatID=352

Considering ISA artillery is placed in the open in broad daylight says this is just token, "See we helped," YPG was doomed anyway.



...

Moving on: http://www.dailysabah.com/mideast/20...ian-rebels-say

Vague, but it confirms an ISA offensive in Hasakah.

Any event:

While US strikes destroyed some cottage refineries that were being phased out anyway, they did not hit the main processing plants and the oil wells themselves citing environmental concerns. This means the cash flow is not interrupted as IS can still sell crude, and with the main processing plants unhit, they can still refine gasoline.

But strikes against the grain silos operated by the IS are illegal and given many Syrians rely on the grain given out by said silos the US is further convincing Sunnis they have no human rights as far as America is concerned and that the US will overlook Assad's genocide against them, but attack IS who is providing essential services and food aid to them, despite whatever they may think of its harsh interpretation of Islam.

Lets remember folks, the Sunnis are the ones we are trying to convince to reject IS. Siding with Assad implicititly means we share in the blood spilt by him and thus we are equally guilty of said crimes, which convinces more Sunnis IS is the group to side with because it at least stands for the Sunnis and is not corrupt.

The recent mass defection to IS by FSA holdouts in Raqqah should make this clear. They were to be part of a joint FSA/JAN/YPG offensive into Raqqah that was being planned when USAF hit JAN HQ and killed the planners including two senior Islamic Front Commanders. Oops! The correct response to IS was to simply stay out of the conflict and let it burn out. By getting involved we came across to the Sunnis as Iran and Assad' Air Force which is true if not what Obama may have intended.

And Obama still does not have a strategy to achieve a victory and he is still not all the way in, so he is wasting time and money for nothing and alienating the very people he needs to convince to reject IS.

Basically this, nothing even remotely concrete was done until IS came around and still the main reason the rebellion began in the first place, Assad is being helped by IS.

[Vanoi]

It made me lol. Reading Vanoi's excuses is interesting. Assad is the lesser evil in this conflict. It akso entertains me to no end when people talk about "moderate" extremists. Its like looking for non racist Nazi.

Facts aren't excuses. Its naive to even think that a united Syria has a future under Assad. He can barely claw back his country without having to use indiscriminate weapons and chemical weapons to win.

[Love Mountain]

Facts aren't excuses. Its naive to even think that a united Syria has a future under Assad. He can barely claw back his country without having to use indiscriminate weapons and chemical weapons to win.

Yes, I can see how giving support and weapons to terrorists might turn out okay.

[Vanoi]

Yes, I can see how giving support and weapons to terrorists might turn out okay.

I don't think the US is giving weapons to Al-Nusra. US armed the Hazzm Movement before and the only thing that happened was that they blew up a good number of Syrian armored vehicles with TOW missiles.

[Love Mountain]

I don't think the US is giving weapons to Al-Nusra. US armed the Hazzm Movement before and the only thing that happened was that they blew up a good number of Syrian armored vehicles with TOW missiles.

We will know more in the future. This conflict has been very interesting.

[Treize]

Tell me more on the people with governmental experience this Hazzm Movement has.
Do they have people with lawmaking skills (I mean apart from reciting the Quran)? Do they know how to carry out infrastructural projects? Do they know how to run a treasury? Etc. etc.

[Vanoi]

Tell me more on the people with governmental experience this Hazzm Movement has.
Do they have people with lawmaking skills (I mean apart from reciting the Quran)? Do they know how to carry out infrastructural projects? Do they know how to run a treasury? Etc. etc.

Some of the leaders are former Syrian army officers themselves. If the ISIS can from the crude government they have and still be fine, i am sure the Hazzm movement can do even better. The Syrian National Coalition (which HM is apart of) has Syrian lawmakers in it.

[Treize]

Those are a bunch of expats with zero authority inside Syria...

[Ehrmahgehrden]

Facts aren't excuses. Its naive to even think that a united Syria has a future under Assad. He can barely claw back his country without having to use indiscriminate weapons and chemical weapons to win.

Seems like I will have to ask it again - do you have anything to say about the FSA commander's own words ?

[Vanoi]

Those are a bunch of expats with zero authority inside Syria...

Weapons and money going to the FSA can change that.

Seems like I will have to ask it again - do you have anything to say about the FSA commander's own words ?

His words are from over a year ago and the situation he is describing no longer exists.