China seems to moving away from the one state two systems...

[conon394]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/01/wo...ions.html?_r=0

Not exactly a policy that will entice Taiwan to trust the two (three potentially) systems ideal. Why Is Beijing so afraid of developments in Hong Kong? Maybe those who have said Chinese growth numbers such are a bit more slight of hand then generally accepted might be right and the central government is doing more projecting and subtle repression than is normally noted.

So if protests do occur and China used a blunt hand how will that impact the political dynamic in Taiwan?

[Condottiere 40K]

Diplomatic ambiguity will continue, though the public sentiment against a class reunion will harden, and probably more escape avenues would be explored to more democratic climes, just in case.

[hellheaven1987]

Why Is Beijing so afraid of developments in Hong Kong?

Because one state two systems is a stupid policy and CCP never really believed that is a permanent move; it was/is obviously unless CCP treats Hong Kong as Puerto Rico of China soon or later the two system policy would need to end, yet since treating Hong Kong as Puerto Rico is againsting Chinese tradition/culture, it would never happen.

So if protests do occur and China used a blunt hand how will that impact the political dynamic in Taiwan?

Nothing; Taiwan just uses political difference as a cover to hide its true fear - the deep suspicion towards continent as most islanders habored (such as Japan and UK).

[Derpy Hooves]

Well China can't attack Taiwan, because of the National Palace, which if destroyed would mean destroying over 35,000 pieces of mainland Chinese history.

[hellheaven1987]

Well China can't attack Taiwan, because of the National Palace, which if destroyed would mean destroying over 35,000 pieces of mainland Chinese history.

Implying CCP actually cares.

[Roma_Victrix]

Well China can't attack Taiwan, because of the National Palace, which if destroyed would mean destroying over 35,000 pieces of mainland Chinese history.

If they were able to surround it, they could easily starve the defenders out. The Chinese are a very patient people, good at waiting for things they want.

This is not the real reason why they wouldn't attack Taiwan...the reason they wouldn't attack Taiwan is because of the United F-ing States of America.



She's a big elephant in the room, I know.

As for the Taiwanese, how the PRC handles the pro-democracy protests being staged in Hong Kong right now should be an indicator as to what Taiwan's politicians will campaign on next. If the PRC tries to go all 1989 Tiananmen Square on the pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, you can bet that will be a campaign issue in Taiwan's next round of democratic elections. It will not turn out well for PRC-Taiwanese relations, which have been softening for decades since the regime of Chairman Deng Xiaoping.

[caratacus]

As for the Taiwanese, how the PRC handles the pro-democracy protests being staged in Hong Kong right now should be an indicator as to what Taiwan's politicians will campaign on next. If the PRC tries to go all 1989 Tiananmen Square on the pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, you can bet that will be a campaign issue in Taiwan's next round of democratic elections. It will not turn out well for PRC-Taiwanese relations, which have been softening for decades since the regime of Chairman Deng Xiaoping.

That's because China has been steadily looking for powerful influential people to make friends with them!
Whilst a working model of a horse wows Chinese audiences in a stage production of "War Horse" on mainland China. Some Taiwanese councilors bring an inflatable Trojan Horse into Taipei City Council to demonstrate that the mayoral candidate is China's man on the inside.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiw.../28/2003598460

[Roma_Victrix]

That's because China has been steadily looking for powerful influential people to make friends with them!
Whilst a working model of a horse wows Chinese audiences in a stage production of "War Horse" on mainland China. Some Taiwanese councilors bring an inflatable Trojan Horse into Taipei City Council to demonstrate that the mayoral candidate is China's man on the inside.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiw.../28/2003598460

LOL. A PRC Trojan horse...priceless. I love smartass stunts like this.

[Condottiere 40K]

They can gas the area.

[opock]

Not surprising. If Taiwan was ever absorbed they could expect the same fate. Obviously if it happened as a result of conquest the PRC wouldn't even have to waste a couple decades pretending to be anything other than it is there.

[Costin_Razvan]

The transfer of power from Britain to China of Hong Kong stipulated that China would wait 50 years until introducing communism on the Island.

They haven't broken the terms they signed on. They are just messing with elections through meddling, for now.

[Condottiere 40K]

The Taiwanese are playing a waiting game; the CCP could be overthrown, or the increasing bourgeoisie would force them to transition to a more democratic form of governance, or the whole place could fall apart.

[Roma_Victrix]

or the whole place could fall apart.

Barring another world economic calamity, perhaps worse than what transpired in 2008, that could adversely affect China's industrial capacity or sale of goods, I don't think this would happen. The peaceful transition (albeit forced by protests) to democracy sounds much more likely. However, that doesn't seem likely for the near future given the awesome power the CCP has over the state apparatuses, to say nothing of China's citizens. I envision a mainland Chinese democracy in 2080 or 2100, but certainly not in my lifetime.

[hellheaven1987]

Imperial Japan used Trojan Horse very well during WWII though, and you think PRC would not.

[caratacus]

China's is getting very touchy about the reaction to it's attempt at rolling back the so called "Basic Law" promises. However I can't see what Britain can do about it except some verbal reprimands which will fall on deaf ears and prompt China to threaten British politicians with the cold shoulder, which is only just begining to get warmed up after the visit of the Dalai Lama to the Country. Time to cancel that order for an extra long red carpet perhaps!

The Chinese authorities have accused British MPs of interfering in Hong Kong's affairs, Newsnight has learned.
They are trying to block an influential Westminster committee from carrying out an inquiry into the ongoing tensions in Hong Kong. The Chinese ambassador to the UK has also tried to warn the MPs off.

It comes as thousands of activists in Hong Kong protest at Chinese government moves which they say will limit democratic elections in the territory.

In a strongly worded letter, the Chinese Foreign Affairs Committee accuses its UK counterpart of carrying out a "highly inappropriate act which constitutes interference in China's internal affairs".

The letter says it has "sent a wrong political signal to the outside world, and disrupted Hong Kong's political reform".

The letter goes on to say China will "brook no interference, either directly or indirectly, from the UK or any other external forces".
'Negative impact'

It adds that the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee's intention to carry out its inquiry "will have a negative impact on the relations between our countries".

The Chinese committee warns the MPs to "act with caution on the issue of Hong Kong, bear in mind the larger picture of China-UK relations and Hong Kong's prosperity and stability, stop interfering in Hong Kong's affairs and cancel the inquiry on UK-Hong Kong relations".

The Commons committee announced its intention to investigate in July, to consider progress made by Hong Kong in the 30 years since its handover was agreed with the UK.

The scope of the inquiry clearly set out to consider progress towards democratic reform.

The deal that the UK signed with China to transfer sovereignty of Hong Kong established the so-called basic law.

That guaranteed high degrees of autonomy and basic rights and freedoms for people living in Hong Kong.

As the co-signatory of the deal, the UK has an ongoing interest in what is happening in Hong Kong. For example, the foreign secretary reports twice a year to Parliament.

Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Sir Richard Ottaway told the BBC's Newsnight he did not "particularly want to irritate the Chinese" but he wanted them to "understand the way we work".

He said he was not offended by the letter from Chinese authorities, adding that the British and Chinese committees both had a "job to do".

"It may well be that my committee will decide that actually the Chinese are behaving perfectly reasonably," he said.

But he said if it was true that a Chinese committee was nominating a "limited number of candidates" for an election, there did appear to be a "prima facie case" that China had breached the undertakings it gave in the 1984 handover agreement. BBC News Online 1/9/2014

[Condottiere 40K]

The British have no leverage to force the Chinese to keep to their agreements in regard to Hong Kong, beyond trying to make the CCP leadership lose face. That might sting.

[RollingWave]

Right, the CCP should do what the Hong Kong folks wants.

Designate a white English noblemen as governor (must be male and over 50 too). Just like the good old days of democratic colonial Hong Kong



On a more serious note, I think the CCP is taking a weird spot to make a red line given that they really control HK politics so strongly that who can run or not hardly matters (since those they don't want elected never will unless there is a fundamental change in HK's political and social structure.)

Though I guess they feel if they don't draw a line somewhere the demonstrator will only be more emboldened and go further, so might as well pick a ultimately pointless spot as a diversion

[hellheaven1987]

The Chinese authorities have accused British MPs of interfering in Hong Kong's affairs, Newsnight has learned.

They are trying to block an influential Westminster committee from carrying out an inquiry into the ongoing tensions in Hong Kong.

The Chinese ambassador to the UK has also tried to warn the MPs off.

It comes as thousands of activists in Hong Kong protest at Chinese government moves which they say will limit democratic elections in the territory.

In a strongly worded letter, the Chinese Foreign Affairs Committee accuses its UK counterpart of carrying out a "highly inappropriate act which constitutes interference in China's internal affairs".

The letter says it has "sent a wrong political signal to the outside world, and disrupted Hong Kong's political reform".

The letter goes on to say China will "brook no interference, either directly or indirectly, from the UK or any other external forces".

Source

Naughty naughty British, China just "awarded" you guys with better trading terms a few months ago and now you are trying to cause trouble in China, how ungrateful British is!!

[RollingWave]

Investigation reveal that the British government only decided to give HK basic voting rights in the 1980s after they decided to hand it back to China to give the PRC government a handful, and since 1997 the coverage of direct election have only increased, thus obviously China has ruined a democratic utopia!

[Condottiere 40K]

They sort of had to, since it would look bad if they just handed over six million people to a totalitarian regime without safeguards. Also, to prevent a massive exodus to England.