Will the USA fall in the next 100 years(as a super power)?

[The Walrus]

I think we will. We have already lost our world position because of Iraq. We now don't have the manpower to strike North Korea or Iran(or threaten effectively the latter) because our men are tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan. The USA will eventually be teamed-up against because of our warmongerous attitude and our big heads. We are overdue for numerous natural disasters. Our country is getting overcrowded. I think we will

EDIT: I put as a super power to clarify things. Sorry to anyone who voted the "wrong" choice because they thought it meant go into anarchy become another countries territory, etc

[vikrant]

us will not fall
but she will definitely loose its edge

[danzig]

Wont fall and not in 100 years, its sheer size alone would allow the US to stumble along as atleast as long as the Roman empire even if it did start to fall. What will happen is less the US falling and more of other countries catching up, India, China etc. The US of course will face a major shift in how it runs things as all entities must during its existences. This of course doesnt include the impact of any world war type conflict within the next 100 years, if that happened who knows.

[Tiwaz]

Every empire falls.

They become complacent in their position of power, let their feeling of invincibility cloud their judgement and then some other nation with fresh drive replaces the old one.

Rome lasted over millenia, britain far less and now USA has began it's decline. As the world becomes smaller the empires last shorter and shorter time.

[Sétanta]

The US will not fall, the US position as superpower will though.

The United States of America, to be frank, is not an empire. Nor has it ever been one. By definition, an empire has to have a single autocratic or monarchic leader and have possession of un-annexed territory throughout the world. Although fulfilling the second requirement, all of those territories are controlled by the United States by choice. They legally have the right to leave American control at any time, as well as request statehood and be admitted into the Union. Because of this, the American empire cannot possibly be in decline because the American empire does not exist. In the past, when we held control of territory against the inhabitants of said territory against their will, it was to protect them from European imperialist powers such as France or Britain that did not care if they wanted to be independent or not. Although not looked favorably upon by those civilians of occupied territories, they ALL eventually democratically voted to gain independence. This in itself is proof that America has not ever been an empire, nor come even close to being one. It isn’t even possible to claim that the American republic is in decline either, because despite corruption and a general dislike of the central government, the United States still displays democratic tendencies found in a republican system of government such as free elections and high civil liberty for American citizens. What is in decline, however, is America’s status as the sole superpower in the world. This is primarily because of the rise of China and India and the decline of the Soviet Union. It is impossible for a benevolent super power such as the United States to remain as the sole superpower forever. The only way we could ever keep that status was to forcibly keep other nations from rising into a position to contest American power. The British displayed this time and time again during their position of hegemony. They went to war countless times to protect their colonial interests and to prevent nations such as France or Prussia from gaining too much power. However, because the United States has no imperialistic ambitions, we do not perform such actions. It would have been quite easy to attack China or India either economically or militarily and disrupt their increase in power before they ever had a chance of even coming close to challenging us. Indeed, even today we could pursue a similar course of action and come out victorious, but alas, politicians with weak guts and a nice payroll provided at the courtesy of the Peoples Republic of China would never stand for such a course of action. I would now like to go over four factors, military, economics, politics and social issues that are being discussed here in further detail:


o Militarily there is no equal to the United States. Ever since the arms race at the end of the 1980’s that contributed to the downfall of the USSR, there has been no nation that can keep up with the spending or technological edge the United States military can bring to bear at any point. The United States Navy is unrivaled, being the premier blue water naval force in the world. Although the Peoples Liberation Army naval force, for example, has very large numbers of frigates and destroyers, they are for the most part technologically inferior to all of their USN counterparts. The PLAN has zero strike ability outside territorial waters of China. Indeed, only the British and French navies have aircraft carriers capable of force projection. But somehow I doubt that we will be fighting them for naval supremacy any time soon. As for air power, that is our real edge. Nothing on the planet can come close to contesting the F-22’s air supremacy abilities, and with the F-35 and F-16 in ground attack roles, the PLAAF would quickly be overwhelmed. The PLA has much larger ground forces, but we have a vast advantage in armored vehicles and much more advanced artillery. Our forces also have a huge technological edge. In comparison, the Roman Army was reliant on foederati mercenaries who were not loyal. They also had no technological edge, nor could they afford to pay for a large industrial base to support their military like we can. If the Romans were transported to the modern day, their military would barely be second world.

o As for economics, there is still no equal to the United States. Although many jobs are outsourced, we have demonstrated time and time again the ability to increase industrial output 10 fold. Although many of the jobs are overseas, the know-how and ability to increase output are still here. The United States has by far the largest Gross Domestic Product in the world, not to mention the largest economy in absolute terms. The Western Empire on the other hand was a self contained economy that could not afford to be self contained. They were reliant on their agricultural output to have their coffers full. Although both China and India are advancing fast, the United States can has the ability to increase economic output in a hurry, as demonstrated during WWI, WWII and during the 1980’s. The Roman economy however, once it started to dive, it really started to dive. Because they didn’t have any types of systems in place to stop that from happening, the depression that hit them hit them really, really hard. Hyperinflation was common, as was overspending.

o The political games of the United States Congress can go on for only so long. Eventually the American public will get sick of listening to the whining babies in Congress and start electing people who do what they say and say what they mean. During the 1890’s the US government was much the pawn of big corporations, their main job being to keep the people who funded their campaigns happy. All it takes if for the American public to wake up again and take an active role in the government and for some sort of economic trouble to hit for that to cease. Already the first of those requirements are starting to show. The people are getting sick of the government being a bunch of morons. Then, when the inevitable happens, and we descend into the trough of the economic wave the requirements for change are fulfilled and the people elect somebody who will not listen to the corporations. In Rome, however, their economy never righted itself and the people were so sick of playing games with their leaders they didn’t care what flag their leader flew as long as he listened to them. The men who happened to do that also happened to be Vizigoths.

o Unlike Rome, there are no massive social upheavals in the USA. Issues such as homosexual marriage, abortion and illegal immigration are all causes for debate, and even large rallies, but there are not violent clashes between supporters and detractors of abortion for example. Those types of encounters were quite common in Rome. Also, the Roman government was violent and corrupt and the idea of social liberty for all citizens of Rome was virtually inexistent. The American citizen on the other hand is likely the most free person in the world, in general. They can say what they want, go where they want, do what they want (within the laws), get involved, make a difference. All of the reasons why Rome fell, America is continuing to rise.

[JANOSIK007]

The US will not fall, the US position as superpower will though.

The United States of America, to be frank, is not an empire. Nor has it ever been one. By definition, an empire has to have a single autocratic or monarchic leader and have possession of un-annexed territory throughout the world.

Britain was an empire and it was a democracy.

And Philippines, Cuba, Puerto Rico, were at a point in practical sense imperial possessions. But let's not forget that US is no longer the 13 states. It took imperial expansion to get to 50. Does empire have to have Un-annexed territories? No. Rome didn't. Rome outright annexed its conquests. I'm not sure where you get this from. It's the opposite.

[swabian]

However, because the United States has no imperialistic ambitions, we do not perform such actions. It would have been quite easy to attack China or India either economically or militarily and disrupt their increase in power before they ever had a chance of even coming close to challenging us. Indeed, even today we could pursue a similar course of action and come out victorious, but alas, politicians with weak guts and a nice payroll provided at the courtesy of the Peoples Republic of China would never stand for such a course of action.

The US has very strong imperial ambitions. Assuming some unusual criteria (such as, that the US currency is stabilized by the world economy itself), one could consider the US as am empire, but certainly not in the classical sense. Mrjesushat gives very interesting and enlightening insight in the actual coherences, imho.

The US is absolutely not able to pose a threat to China, outside of certain limitations. China has enough nuclear missles, that any action against China would turn out into something close to suicide, as there is no sufficient defensive system yet. There is also no way to defeat China in it's best defended regions conventionally. The only way the US could defeat China in open war would be a large nuclear first strike for the cost of several important cities and millions of lives.

[Napoleon of Scotland]

Things are different now. What do you mean by 'USA will fall' exactly? It will be defeated in war?, or just lose its status as the worlds most powerful country?

[Erik]

USA will fall within 20 years.
Not because of military reasons but because of economic reasons (namely their huge deficits).

[carl-the-conqueror]

USA will fall within 20 years.
Not because of military reasons but because of economic reasons (namely their huge deficits).

id say thirty, the U.S.A is heavily dependant on oil, and it is staying that way, but weve only got it for around thirty years.

unless of course an alernate method of internal combustion is found.

[Erik]

id say thirty, the U.S.A is heavily dependant on oil, and it is staying that way, but weve only got it for around thirty years.

Oil can be bought freely on the global markets, so even if their own production stops it shouldn't make much difference.

But of course they must be able to AFFORD this foreign oil, and I don't think they will be able to do that in <20 years time. (and neither would they be able to afford any foreign resources/goods, as their pockets are running empty very quickly)

[Last Roman]

But of course they must be able to AFFORD this foreign oil, and I don't think they will be able to do that in <20 years time. (and neither would they be able to afford any foreign resources/goods, as their pockets are running empty very quickly)

If we really wanted to, we could get rid of our debts. Problem is, nobody likes 99% income taxes.

[Erik]

If we really wanted to, we could get rid of our debts. Problem is, nobody likes 99% income taxes.

The national debt isn't the biggest problem.
The biggest problem is the foreign debt (=how much America is in debt to the rest of the world).

America has passed the point where they can bring their trade deficit back in balance without causing a domino effect.
Their economic well being depends on foreign investment (mainly from China), once this foreign injection stops the American economy will collapse.
It's totally out of the hands of Americans.

The only thing America can do is drastically reduce it's consumption of foreign goods (mainyl cheap imports from China), but I don't see that happening

oil will stop completely in thirty years.

Not according to the oil peak theory, which is widely accepted.
According to this theory conventional oil production will decrease during the next decades/centuries but it will never stop completely while we have a demand for oil.

And non-conventional oil production (such as from tar sands and oil shale) will compensate the reduction in conventional oil production for a large part.

[carl-the-conqueror]

Oil can be bought freely on the global markets, so even if their own production stops it shouldn't make much difference.

But of course they must be able to AFFORD this foreign oil, and I don't think they will be able to do that in <20 years time. (and neither would they be able to afford any foreign resources/goods, as their pockets are running empty very quickly)

oil will stop completely in thirty years, and america can use its military to (ineffeciantly albeit) get it in the mean time, america will stop then because everyone will be against it.

[Miraj]

America will fall for a much smaller reason than all the geopolitical stuff.

Its the simple ol Mexican immigrant that will bring down the USA. Already the mass influx of illegal immigrants has caused major concern and unrest in the south. But the demographic warping that this is causing is bound to cause more major social/civil unrest as the hispanics grow. More and more America will become divided and start seeing more and more inter-ethnic conflict among whites and the hispanics. Within a hundred years the already existing Hispanic population will have exploded, doubled, tripled. And good for them.

Vive la Raza!!

[danzig]

America will fall for a much smaller reason than all the geopolitical stuff.

Its the simple ol Mexican immigrant that will bring down the USA. Already the mass influx of illegal immigrants has caused major concern and unrest in the south. But the demographic warping that this is causing is bound to cause more major social/civil unrest as the hispanics grow. More and more America will become divided and start seeing more and more inter-ethnic conflict among whites and the hispanics. Within a hundred years the already existing Hispanic population will have exploded, doubled, tripled. And good for them.

And they would be crushed, few hispanics are going to fall for the promises of uneducated, radical militants.

[Hansa]

If you mean fall as in loose world dominance, then the answer is to my knowledge probably yes, which is why I voted maybe. If you mean fall as in fall apart, the answer vould also be maybe, but this posibility seems very far off. I don't think the US will be teamed up against either, as soon the US will realise that it is no lonhger the worlds dominant superpower and act accordingly. China is currently on the rise, India will follow, this should make the EU unite to a much larger level than today, we may see a Central/South American union etc. If in such as scenario, the US doesn't change its policies, it will still be a powerful factor in world affairs, but it will suffer greatly for policies resembling the ones it has today. Natural disaster wont only affect the US, and will be a major problem world wide in a few years (that has already started but is still in its infancy, things can only get worse ).

[Sidus Preclarum]

I'd say no. It might undergo some changes, and loss of power/influence, but I wouldn't say it'd "fall" ie, definitively cease to exist, as opposed to, say, be temporarily be wracked by a severe ecomnomical crisis, or have some states secede... I certainly hope it doesn't "fall"...

[Erik]

I'd say no. It might undergo some changes, and loss of power/influence, but I wouldn't say it'd "fall" ie, definitively cease to exist, as opposed to, say, be temporarily be wracked by a severe ecomnomical crisis, or have some states secede... I certainly hope it doesn't "fall"...

America will still exist after it's economic collapse.
But it won't be anything like the superpower it is now, that's how I interpreted their "fall".

The questions needs to be clarified/adjustmed though.

[DefenderofFreedom]

America will still exist after it's economic collapse.
But it won't be anything like the superpower it is now, that's how I interpreted their "fall".

Economic collapse would by no means shoot us out of the picture. It would at most temporarily push us aside until some dictator in a far off country comes to power, tries to take over the world, and we (since the europeans are useless) have to stop them.

We're Americans, and we hate to lose. If we do, don't expect it to last long =P