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Thread: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

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  1. #1
    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    Default Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    First we have this leak from China:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...se-leaked.html

    Detailing their plans should nK collapse. It was noted that there is no indication in this plan that China would resist US forces, rather they'd acknowledge their existence and give "protection" to their enemies which includes putting them in special camps to be monitored.

    Then we have this unusually racist statements from nK seeming to attempt to provoke response from the US:
    http://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-un...102016281.html

    Finally they very unusually admitted fault to a building collapse a few days ago:
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0E023X20140520
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

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    Papay's Avatar Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    Wishful thinking. Even if Kim "collapses" we wont have a Germany-type unification of Korea, rather another communist leader or the army taking his place

  3. #3
    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Papay View Post
    Wishful thinking. Even if Kim "collapses" we wont have a Germany-type unification of Korea, rather another communist leader or the army taking his place
    The Chinese government thinks otherwise.

    SLN: It's the leaking of the plans not the existence that is important
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

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  4. #4
    Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    Eh every country has plans concerning what may or may not happen with a neighbour, nothing new.

  5. #5

    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    If the Kim regime collapsed, how could we tell the difference?
    Eats, shoots, and leaves.

  6. #6
    Roma_Victrix's Avatar Call me Ishmael
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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    IIRC, economists predict that a unification of North Korea with South Korea would proportionately cost the latter perhaps even more than West Germany when it reunited with East Germany and had to spend 2 trillion euros over the course of two decades to rebuild its infrastructure and economy. In the North Korean countryside outside Pyongyang, it's so backwards that it's almost as if South Korea would have to settle in a new wilderness when building up necessary infrastructure. That is going to cost a fortune. Coupled with the enormous movement of North Koreans fleeing south and pressing for jobs and better quality of life there, we're looking at an economic disaster that I hope they're at least somewhat prepared for.

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    Vanoi's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    War. In a Kim collapse i don't think it would be so peaceful with just some army general taking power. I think there would be something akin to a civil war.

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    Gatsby's Avatar Punctual Romantic
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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    The fact that China has plans to deal with a collapse of NK doesn't strike me as particularly significant. Surely every major country has plans for every national security contingency: the collapse of an ally and nuclear power on your border is something you surely want to have a plan for, regardless of likelihood.
    You'll have more fun at a Glasgow stabbing than an Edinburgh wedding.

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    Nevins's Avatar Semper Gumby
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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gatsby View Post
    The fact that China has plans to deal with a collapse of NK doesn't strike me as particularly significant. Surely every major country has plans for every national security contingency: the collapse of an ally and nuclear power on your border is something you surely want to have a plan for, regardless of likelihood.
    You are correct in that the existence of the plan is pretty obvious but it is the revealing of the plan that is supposed to send a message. Its a subtle but important thing in this chain of events
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  10. #10

    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nevins View Post
    You are correct in that the existence of the plan is pretty obvious but it is the revealing of the plan that is supposed to send a message. Its a subtle but important thing in this chain of events
    Yep, seems like ones of those passive aggressive moves.

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Thing is, West kinda benefits from the state, in which North Korea is now.
    If regime there was to change, US and South Korea would have to support millions of people, along with poor infrastructure and hell of an insurgency, backed by China and making Vietnam in 1969 look like a walk in the park.
    However, as of now, NK doesn't pose any serious threat to anybody except for South Korea, while US can freely expand its military presence in the Pacific using NK as an excuse. And did I mention all the contracts for the Military Industrial Complex?
    This isn't 1969, the cultural revolution isn't a thing anymore and China needs the US as a willing partner. No, this wouldn't be Vietnam 2.0 electric boogaloo.
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  11. #11

    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Phier View Post
    This isn't 1969, the cultural revolution isn't a thing anymore and China needs the US as a willing partner. No, this wouldn't be Vietnam 2.0 electric boogaloo.
    China wants same thing as US. This has nothing to do with being partners. Plus US has a long-lasting tendency of stabbing its partners in the back. I'm sure Chinese are aware of that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    Insurgency? Starving militia don't fight.
    germans in Belarus and Americans in Vietnam beg to differ.
    An as detailed in the OP, China would not oppose foreign troops.
    China would rather have crazy Best Korea then allow US bases so close to its borders in case it gets "liberated".

  12. #12
    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post

    China would rather have crazy Best Korea then allow US bases so close to its borders in case it gets "liberated".
    Not according to the Chinese own plan. China also knows a united Korea is a natural ally, and removing nK removes the US justification for bases on the peninsula.

    Also about the stupid statement about South Korea standard of living: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...y_average_wage South Korea is in the top 10 in highest average salary...
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    China wants same thing as US. This has nothing to do with being partners. Plus US has a long-lasting tendency of stabbing its partners in the back. I'm sure Chinese are aware of that.
    Heathen in 2013 China exported 440 BILLION dollars worth of goods to the US. Let me say that again 440 BILLION.

    Yea, they are going to really care deeply about a crazy backwater on their border, especially when they know they can't compete with the US in the Air or Sea as it is.

    440 BILLION Heathen, think of that.
    "When I die, I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like Fidel Castro, not screaming in terror, like his victims."

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    Vanoi's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    germans in Belarus and Americans in Vietnam beg to differ.
    The Viet Cong were not starving in Vietnam nor where the North Vietnamese Army. And North Korean conscripts are not trained German soldiers. The North Korean Army isn't even getting enough food and they get food first out of everybody.

    What was the famous quote? An army fights on its stomach? They will starve to death before their insurgency does anything.

    Even your example of Vietnam doesn't work as China would not fund a war against America. This isn't the Cold War. China doesn't want millions of refugees spilling over its borders from a 2nd Korean War.

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    China would rather have crazy Best Korea then allow US bases so close to its borders in case it gets "liberated".
    And your evidence for this is what? Because again the source in the OP is the leaked plans by China. China does not want a crazy North Korea on its border and just recently criticized North Korea and told them not to conduct another nuclear test.

    And who says there would be US bases at the border? The only reason there is bases in South Korea right now is to deter North Korea.

  15. #15

    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    The Americans did have plans to take out Canada pre-emptively, in the event of a confrontation with the Motherland.
    Eats, shoots, and leaves.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    If communism collapses in North Korea then South Korea might end up spending a lot on infrastructure.

    However they would get a very disciplined workforce, highly qualified engineers and doctors and a nuclear arsenal. Not too bad of a deal.
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  17. #17

    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    I rather doubt that the South Korean bourgeoisie is patriotic enough to channel the required development aid with the requisite cut in lifestyle.
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  18. #18

    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    South Korea is a corrupt cesspit of corruption and organized crime. They average pay is nothing impressive. Ther living standards in poorer parts of the capital and other average income areas is pitiful and comparable to Eastern Europe or worse. To put it simply, South Korea is home to giant conglomerates that drive economic growtg but we have yet to see the majority of that wealth being enjoyed by a large part of the population, who for the most part, saw no realy improvement in their lifestyle for the last 20 years.

    South Korea reunitung with North Korea? What a total joke.

  19. #19
    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    Default Re: Is the Kim regime collapsing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sukiyama View Post
    South Korea is a corrupt cesspit of corruption and organized crime. They average pay is nothing impressive. Ther living standards in poorer parts of the capital and other average income areas is pitiful and comparable to Eastern Europe or worse. To put it simply, South Korea is home to giant conglomerates that drive economic growtg but we have yet to see the majority of that wealth being enjoyed by a large part of the population, who for the most part, saw no realy improvement in their lifestyle for the last 20 years.
    .
    Have you been to South Korea?

    Cause if you had you'd realize how stupid that statement is.
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

    —Sir William Francis Butler

  20. #20

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Farnan View Post
    Have you been to South Korea?

    Cause if you had you'd realize how stupid that statement is.
    I have been to South Korea and if you were to any place outside the capital you would know what Im talking about. Posting an average statistic is about as useful as telling me how good of measure BMI is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Denny Crane! View Post
    Hilarious guessing Hellheaven has never been to South Korea. I have and the idea that it is some nepotistic hellhole of corruption is amazing. I have travelled all over the world including the places that are truly corrupt and no South Korea is not one of those parties.

    Given the current posting pattern it seems Hellheaven is just posting whatever is completely outrageous and wrong and hoping to get a reaction. Given the current homophobic and Russian influx, well great tidings for current posting levels for the forum!
    Its not a hellhole of corruption but putting anywhere near Western countries is nothing short of hilarity.
    Last edited by Gertrudius; May 22, 2014 at 06:41 AM. Reason: double post

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