Is the Kim regime collapsing?

[Farnan]

First we have this leak from China:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...se-leaked.html

Detailing their plans should nK collapse. It was noted that there is no indication in this plan that China would resist US forces, rather they'd acknowledge their existence and give "protection" to their enemies which includes putting them in special camps to be monitored.

Then we have this unusually racist statements from nK seeming to attempt to provoke response from the US:
http://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-un...102016281.html

Finally they very unusually admitted fault to a building collapse a few days ago:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0E023X20140520

[Papay]

Wishful thinking. Even if Kim "collapses" we wont have a Germany-type unification of Korea, rather another communist leader or the army taking his place

[Farnan]

Wishful thinking. Even if Kim "collapses" we wont have a Germany-type unification of Korea, rather another communist leader or the army taking his place

The Chinese government thinks otherwise.

SLN: It's the leaking of the plans not the existence that is important

[SLN445]

Eh every country has plans concerning what may or may not happen with a neighbour, nothing new.

[Condottiere 40K]

If the Kim regime collapsed, how could we tell the difference?

[Roma_Victrix]

IIRC, economists predict that a unification of North Korea with South Korea would proportionately cost the latter perhaps even more than West Germany when it reunited with East Germany and had to spend 2 trillion euros over the course of two decades to rebuild its infrastructure and economy. In the North Korean countryside outside Pyongyang, it's so backwards that it's almost as if South Korea would have to settle in a new wilderness when building up necessary infrastructure. That is going to cost a fortune. Coupled with the enormous movement of North Koreans fleeing south and pressing for jobs and better quality of life there, we're looking at an economic disaster that I hope they're at least somewhat prepared for.

[Vanoi]

War. In a Kim collapse i don't think it would be so peaceful with just some army general taking power. I think there would be something akin to a civil war.

[Gatsby]

The fact that China has plans to deal with a collapse of NK doesn't strike me as particularly significant. Surely every major country has plans for every national security contingency: the collapse of an ally and nuclear power on your border is something you surely want to have a plan for, regardless of likelihood.

[Nevins]

The fact that China has plans to deal with a collapse of NK doesn't strike me as particularly significant. Surely every major country has plans for every national security contingency: the collapse of an ally and nuclear power on your border is something you surely want to have a plan for, regardless of likelihood.

You are correct in that the existence of the plan is pretty obvious but it is the revealing of the plan that is supposed to send a message. Its a subtle but important thing in this chain of events

[Phier]

You are correct in that the existence of the plan is pretty obvious but it is the revealing of the plan that is supposed to send a message. Its a subtle but important thing in this chain of events

Yep, seems like ones of those passive aggressive moves.

Thing is, West kinda benefits from the state, in which North Korea is now.
If regime there was to change, US and South Korea would have to support millions of people, along with poor infrastructure and hell of an insurgency, backed by China and making Vietnam in 1969 look like a walk in the park.
However, as of now, NK doesn't pose any serious threat to anybody except for South Korea, while US can freely expand its military presence in the Pacific using NK as an excuse. And did I mention all the contracts for the Military Industrial Complex?

This isn't 1969, the cultural revolution isn't a thing anymore and China needs the US as a willing partner. No, this wouldn't be Vietnam 2.0 electric boogaloo.

[Heathen Hammer]

This isn't 1969, the cultural revolution isn't a thing anymore and China needs the US as a willing partner. No, this wouldn't be Vietnam 2.0 electric boogaloo.

China wants same thing as US. This has nothing to do with being partners. Plus US has a long-lasting tendency of stabbing its partners in the back. I'm sure Chinese are aware of that.

Insurgency? Starving militia don't fight.

germans in Belarus and Americans in Vietnam beg to differ.

An as detailed in the OP, China would not oppose foreign troops.

China would rather have crazy Best Korea then allow US bases so close to its borders in case it gets "liberated".

[Farnan]

China would rather have crazy Best Korea then allow US bases so close to its borders in case it gets "liberated".

Not according to the Chinese own plan. China also knows a united Korea is a natural ally, and removing nK removes the US justification for bases on the peninsula.

Also about the stupid statement about South Korea standard of living: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...y_average_wage South Korea is in the top 10 in highest average salary...

[Phier]

China wants same thing as US. This has nothing to do with being partners. Plus US has a long-lasting tendency of stabbing its partners in the back. I'm sure Chinese are aware of that.

Heathen in 2013 China exported 440 BILLION dollars worth of goods to the US. Let me say that again 440 BILLION.

Yea, they are going to really care deeply about a crazy backwater on their border, especially when they know they can't compete with the US in the Air or Sea as it is.

440 BILLION Heathen, think of that.

[Vanoi]

germans in Belarus and Americans in Vietnam beg to differ.

The Viet Cong were not starving in Vietnam nor where the North Vietnamese Army. And North Korean conscripts are not trained German soldiers. The North Korean Army isn't even getting enough food and they get food first out of everybody.

What was the famous quote? An army fights on its stomach? They will starve to death before their insurgency does anything.

Even your example of Vietnam doesn't work as China would not fund a war against America. This isn't the Cold War. China doesn't want millions of refugees spilling over its borders from a 2nd Korean War.

China would rather have crazy Best Korea then allow US bases so close to its borders in case it gets "liberated".

And your evidence for this is what? Because again the source in the OP is the leaked plans by China. China does not want a crazy North Korea on its border and just recently criticized North Korea and told them not to conduct another nuclear test.

And who says there would be US bases at the border? The only reason there is bases in South Korea right now is to deter North Korea.

[Condottiere 40K]

The Americans did have plans to take out Canada pre-emptively, in the event of a confrontation with the Motherland.

[Dromikaites]

If communism collapses in North Korea then South Korea might end up spending a lot on infrastructure.

However they would get a very disciplined workforce, highly qualified engineers and doctors and a nuclear arsenal. Not too bad of a deal.

[Condottiere 40K]

I rather doubt that the South Korean bourgeoisie is patriotic enough to channel the required development aid with the requisite cut in lifestyle.

[Love Mountain]

South Korea is a corrupt cesspit of corruption and organized crime. They average pay is nothing impressive. Ther living standards in poorer parts of the capital and other average income areas is pitiful and comparable to Eastern Europe or worse. To put it simply, South Korea is home to giant conglomerates that drive economic growtg but we have yet to see the majority of that wealth being enjoyed by a large part of the population, who for the most part, saw no realy improvement in their lifestyle for the last 20 years.

South Korea reunitung with North Korea? What a total joke.

[Farnan]

South Korea is a corrupt cesspit of corruption and organized crime. They average pay is nothing impressive. Ther living standards in poorer parts of the capital and other average income areas is pitiful and comparable to Eastern Europe or worse. To put it simply, South Korea is home to giant conglomerates that drive economic growtg but we have yet to see the majority of that wealth being enjoyed by a large part of the population, who for the most part, saw no realy improvement in their lifestyle for the last 20 years.
.

Have you been to South Korea?

Cause if you had you'd realize how stupid that statement is.

[Love Mountain]

Have you been to South Korea?

Cause if you had you'd realize how stupid that statement is.

I have been to South Korea and if you were to any place outside the capital you would know what Im talking about. Posting an average statistic is about as useful as telling me how good of measure BMI is.

Hilarious guessing Hellheaven has never been to South Korea. I have and the idea that it is some nepotistic hellhole of corruption is amazing. I have travelled all over the world including the places that are truly corrupt and no South Korea is not one of those parties.

Given the current posting pattern it seems Hellheaven is just posting whatever is completely outrageous and wrong and hoping to get a reaction. Given the current homophobic and Russian influx, well great tidings for current posting levels for the forum!

Its not a hellhole of corruption but putting anywhere near Western countries is nothing short of hilarity.