Multinational Force and Observers - Ukraine?

[Farnan]

Mods: Please don't merge this with the other one as its a separate discussion I want to avoid the simple news thread.

Can the solution to the Ukraine crisis be to establish a MFO-like solution for Ukraine?

Here is how I'd imagine the solution going:

Russia and Ukraine agree to solve this through a final referendum after the falling steps:

Both sides agree to establish a neutral peacekeeping force. The funding for this force will be divided between Russia, EU, US, and Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia have veto powers over the nations taking part. The idea is that this force will pay for any elements deployed allowing poorer nations to contribute troops. This force will consist of three groups: Border guards who protect the Ukrainian Border and Peacekeeping zone border, Gendarmes to provide law and order of the peacekeeping zone, and a reaction force to support each. I'd imagine India or Brazil as the leader for this force as both are removed enough from the situation to not be too easily swayed by either party.

Establishment of the peacekeeping zone consisting of three areas. Area One is within 30 KM of the disputed area on the Ukrainian side, Area Two is within 30KM of the Ukrainian border on the Russian Side, Area Three is on the disputed side. Only members of the peacekeeping force will be allowed in Area Three. Area One and Two will have limits in the number of heavy equipment and all forces must provide their location.

Upon establishment of the force all Ukrainian military forces will withdraw to Area One. All pro-Russian groups will disarm (Gendarme force will detain any armed individuals).

6 Months after force is established and Peacekeeping force certifies the region is stable a date for the referendum will be announced. Gendarme force will ensure all elements can freely discuss the issues. The referendum will happen with EU, US, Ukrainian, Russia, Belarussian, Khazak and Chinese observers to ensure it is done peacefully with no major fraud.

Both sides agree to submit to the results of the referendum.

[Big War Bird]

I doubt Russia is interested in anything that might impair its biting off a big chunk of Ukraine.

[Farnan]

I doubt Russia is interested in anything that might impair its biting off a big chunk of Ukraine.

If Russia truly believes the people want to be independent or part of Russia then it has nothing to fear from a free and fair referendum.

Pontifex: The US will have no Soldiers there under this plan. It will provide money that will help ensure we fulfill our obligations under the Budapest Memorandum.

[Pontifex Maximus]

Pontifex: The US will have no Soldiers there under this plan. It will provide money that will help ensure we fulfill our obligations under the Budapest Memorandum.

Your solution would handle the issuet elegantly if we can trust all participatory nations to behave without self interest in the matter. What the proposal lacks is an outlined contingency plan for deception or manipulation in the referendum and the Russian military needs its own provision unless it's in there and I am, through blind incompetence, missing it. Even if we could remove all doubt as to the efficacy of the referendum results, would either side abide by an unfavorable result? It is a nice proposal but I don't think it would work.

[Farnan]

Your solution would handle the issuet elegantly if we can trust all participatory nations to behave without self interest in the matter. What the proposal lacks is an outlined contingency plan for deception or manipulation in the referendum and the Russian military needs its own provision unless it's in there and I am, through blind incompetence, missing it. Even if we could remove all doubt as to the efficacy of the referendum results, would either side abide by an unfavorable result? It is a nice proposal but I don't think it would work.

Both sides will sign a treaty not an agreement to establish such a plan in motion. The strength of treaty protects the results.

The election as stated will be monitored by both parties, their allies, and the peacekeeping force. Both nations will have veto power over which nations make up the peacekeeping force.

BWB: they reduce international sanctions, reduce the move away from Russian gas, save face, and gives Putin an exit strategy.

[Big War Bird]

If Russia truly believes the people want to be independent or part of Russia then it has nothing to fear from a free and fair referendum.

And they have nothing to gain by this plan. Eastern Ukraine is falling right into their hands now.

[Pontifex Maximus]

It seems like a sensible strategy to pursue for those who believe the US should intervene in the affairs of other regions. Personally I don't see what the US has got to do with anything involving Russia, Crimea, or the Ukraine. Besides as a clear indicator that our current president is extremely weak in achieving foreign policy or diplomatic goals, I haven't been convinced that I should personally care what goes on over there. I'm counting on you, Farnan!

[Big War Bird]

I think Putin thinks the US and EU are the ones in need of an exit strategy. Crimea is de facto part of Russia now. Eastern Ukraine almost certainly will be. Those facts on the ground outweigh tepid sanctions meant to hold together a country that is falling apart.

[Roma_Victrix]

Putin wouldn't like this idea at all. For that matter, would Ukrainians favor the idea of even more foreign soldiers occupying Ukraine in this proposed scheme? My guess is they wouldn't like it very much; I know that I wouldn't, even with all the good intentions.

That being said, it seems like a plausible way to bring peace. Sadly I just don't think either side would agree to this. The Ukraine is going to continue rejecting the Crimean referendum and they will certainly not allow further referendums to be staged in the east so long as they can hold on to the region. That prospect is quickly slipping out of their hands, though.

Also, I believe this thread belongs in the Political Academy sub-forum, seeing how the Mudpit should only have threads containing linked articles to news sources on specific current events.

[kanecaston]

Kiev arrested the first lot of its people in eastern Ukraine who called for a referendum and jailed them. If Kiev is so sure that independence is NOT supported by the locals then why is it so scared to hold a referendum?

Meanwhile a bussed in pro Kiev mob massacre Odessa locals, including men, women, children, and a pregnant office worker who they strangled to death and burnt and another woman who was found naked below the waist raped and her face burnt off.

Kiev just went full retard, never go full retard.

NSFW. Link is to primary source photos of the raped shot and burned bodies of men women and children and pregnant women in Odessa:
http://www.sott.net/article/278522-T...Western-powers

[StarDreamer]

Blablabla

Farnan stated he wanted this stuff out of his thread, yet you just go and post it anyways... GJ!

[snuggans]

If Kiev is so sure that independence is NOT supported by the locals then why is it so scared to hold a referendum?

accepting a referendum at all would be sending a message to pretty much everyone that if you bring a few hundred people and take over a few buildings and crack some heads, the government will agree to hold a vote to decide the fate of an area whose boundaries are very difficult to establish.

not only that, but what an absolute bonkers of a referendum it would be, because none of these Russian and Transnistrian tourists are registered with any electoral roll in Ukraine, so they would be essentially holding a referendum they cannot even vote in, they would rely on the actual Ukrainian citizens and of course lose the referendum, unless there's some sort of boycott and they want to make use of a referendum with like 10% turnout or whatever. Russia would never agree to any referendums that isn't being chaperoned exclusively by its military, and if it did agree to such, it would probably be a stalling tactic at best. i don't have a lot of confidence in them simply packing up and going back to Moscow if a referendum does not go their way.

[DarthLazy]

Just the simple fact that they annexed crimea shows that Russia has no interest whatsoever in a free ukraine, there is no way they are going to agree with this, they have seen the world stand by and watch as they annexed crimea, and they will do the same in eastern ukraine and probably odessa. There is no lack of a sensible solution, there is a lack of sensible people in power in russia.

[hellheaven1987]

OP is assuming that besides EU, US and Russia anyone is actually cared about Ukraine; I actually would be surprised India, Brazil, China would not want the tension run even higher so they can reduce West influence in their interest area sneakly.

[Heathen Hammer]

Sounds good on paper, but won't work in reality.
Kiev and Moscow would refuse dealing with each other.
Both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian para-military groups would not disarm, since neither of them trust the other side.
Donetsk would not trust Western peacekeepers due to those most likely being biased towards Kiev's side. Same goes for Kiev's distrust towards non-Western countries being peacekeepers and potentially biased towards Donetsk's side.
The only way to avoid further bloodshed is to federalize/separate the country based on UNR borders (which were more accurate and counted ethnic composition of the regions then the ones made by Communists).

[Sphere]

It is a rather moot discussion.

Kiev has already asked for an UN peacekeeping force...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/15/wo...aine.html?_r=0
http://time.com/61624/ukraine-united...s-troops-east/

It hasn't been pushed because everyone assumes Russia would veto it.

[Farnan]

It is a rather moot discussion.

Kiev has already asked for an UN peacekeeping force...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/15/wo...aine.html?_r=0
http://time.com/61624/ukraine-united...s-troops-east/

It hasn't been pushed because everyone assumes Russia would veto it.

Unlike a UN peacekeeping force this would be grounded in a Ukraine-Russia treaty.

[kanecaston]

accepting a referendum at all would be sending a message to pretty much everyone that if you bring a few hundred people and take over a few buildings and crack some heads, the government will agree to hold a vote to decide the fate of an area whose boundaries are very difficult to establish.

not only that, but what an absolute bonkers of a referendum it would be, because none of these Russian and Transnistrian tourists are registered with any electoral roll in Ukraine, so they would be essentially holding a referendum they cannot even vote in, they would rely on the actual Ukrainian citizens and of course lose the referendum, unless there's some sort of boycott and they want to make use of a referendum with like 10% turnout or whatever. Russia would never agree to any referendums that isn't being chaperoned exclusively by its military, and if it did agree to such, it would probably be a stalling tactic at best. i don't have a lot of confidence in them simply packing up and going back to Moscow if a referendum does not go their way.

And of course you are not biased at all no way, despite being a supporter of Kiev and having photos of people who just committed a massacre in your signature line. But you are not biased at all are you.

1. It has already been well established by western and USA reporters that the anti Kiev protestors are NOT foreign nationals. It is well established that those burnt to death in Odessa (and raped and strangled) were Ukrainian citizens. Repeating this lie that there is no real anti Kiev protestors in Eastern Ukraine doesn't make you look good. Your obvious and outspoken support of criminal murderers who just killed men women and children and raped women and killed a pregnant woman does not look good either.

2. Kiev government came to power using the exact same methods, killing, armed violence, taking over buildings, and WITHOUT a democratic referendum.

3. If Kiev was so sure that Eastern Ukraine does not want independence/federalization then a referendum would not pose any threat to their rule. The massive support for the protestors in Eastern Ukraine shows that Kiev is right to fear a referendum. This is why they are massacring their own citizens while claiming they are foreign nationals and denying the fact that most of their old army deserted and joined the anti Kiev side and the police and the locals in all those places all support the anti Kiev movement.

Crimea is Russian and has always been Russian and the majority there wanted to succeed from the Ukraine and join Russia. Crimea was illegally given away to the Ukraine by a Ukrainian head of the Soviet Union who showed clear bias towards the Ukraine and against the will of the residents. Ever since that illegal takeover by the Ukraine the Crimeans have been trying to return to Russia.

You ignoring the evidence and instead repeating Kiev talking points you heard wont change the facts. Kiev is not a legitimate government. It came to power through violence. It retains power by ejecting the opposition members from parliament and retaining their voting cards. Kiev is not democratic and does not represent eastern Ukraine.

The only way to avoid further bloodshed and to right the wrongs done here is to partition the Ukraine along the Dieper. The unproductive west wants to keep the east in virtual slavery to service their upcoming IMF debts and is using its military to occupy Eastern Ukraine. Noone who knows the situation there and is unbiased can possibly support what Kiev is doing to Ukrainian citizens right now. The military just finished killing a bunch of civilians who were protesting in one of those eastern towns, and shot a woman sitting on here balcony claiming she was a spotter. Even if she was a spotter you cannot shoot unarmed civilians. Even the USA forces in Iraq and Ghanistan don't shoot people they suspect to be spotters.

[snuggans]

And of course you are not biased at all no way, despite being a supporter of Kiev and having photos of people who just committed a massacre in your signature line. But you are not biased at all are you.

1. It has already been well established by western and USA reporters that the anti Kiev protestors are NOT foreign nationals.

uhh there's a reason why i specifically said "Russian and Transnistrian tourists", it's because they made up some of the dead and it was reported as thus, there's no longer any need for me to infer there are tourists, the authorities themselves have said so. if you're already going to be mistaken on your first point i'm not going to read the rest of your post.

[kanecaston]

uhh there's a reason why i specifically said "Russian and Transnistrian tourists", it's because they made up some of the dead and it was reported as thus, there's no longer any need for me to infer there are tourists, the authorities themselves have said so. if you're already going to be mistaken on your first point i'm not going to read the rest of your post.

Rubbish. The authorities you refer to is Kiev. Kiev produces the propaganda without evidence and biased ultra nationalists such as yourself swallow it up uncritically.

No foreign nationals have been killed, or are fighting on the pro Russian side. None. The ethnic Russians, who are fighting for independence from the failed Kiev government, are Ukrainian citizens and have every right to be in Ukraine.

Kiev is a failed state. Ukraine will be partitioned, there is no doubt about that; well after Crimea it could have been settled peacefully, and with a unified Ukraine, but Kiev didn't learn their lesson from Crimea, so the sooner Ukraine is partitioned the better.

I have no doubt you read my post but simply cannot answer the weight of evidence against you.

But please have the last word.