Will Russia attempt to stir things up in the Aegean?

**ioannis76** · February 17, 2022, 05:13 AM

The area of the Aegean is geographically the South Eastern corner of NATO. One would expect that it would be a relatively quiet place, since the two countries that border it are both NATO members, yet because of Turkey's expansionist views, it seems to be a hotbed of conflict. Greece recently upped its game by purchasing cutting edge Rafale fighter jets from France (in my view this should have been done a long time ago, but better late than never), along with meteor missiles (superior to all versions of the US AMRAAM AIM-120), in response to Turkish rhetoric that the Greek islands should be demilitarized (and thus wide open for a turkish invasion). A recent rise in this anti-helleinc hysteria can be seen here:

https://nordicmonitor.com/2022/02/ca...on-of-islands/

Do you believe that Russia might diplomatically encourage Turkey to invade Greek islands in an attempt to cause more cracks in NATO's SE corner, as retaliation for western aggression against Russia in the Ukraine? As a reminder, Russia has already sold Turkey S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, which caused the US to react by imposing sanctions on Turkey:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/us-s...sian-s400.html

**EmperorBatman999** · February 17, 2022, 08:11 AM

Turkey’s economic situation is in absolutely no position to start any kind of hostilities with anybody. Due to the rapid devaluation of the Lira, it’s highly unlikely they’ll have enough money to mount any kind of military invasion. The unrest caused by the economic collapse will leave Ankara with too many problems at home.

**PointOfViewGun** · February 17, 2022, 03:00 PM

I would never expect such a delusion to be based on Russian influence. That's a first. It's no surprise that the article ioannis76 uses is written by Abdullah Bozkurt who is a known Gülen supporter who is on record to call on his followers to be clandestine till they take over the government. A while ago they, along with AKP, were exposed for creating forged documents to accuse the Turkish military of a coup in order to speed promoting their own followers up the ranks. Not the kind of people you'd wanna get in bed with. It might also help to remember that in recent years Turkish drones bombed Russian backed Haftar forces in Libya, as well as Assad forces in Syria, and very recently armed Ukrainians with Turkish drones giving them production privileges.

**ioannis76** · February 18, 2022, 06:24 AM

Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun

I would never expect such a delusion to be based on Russian influence. That's a first. It's no surprise that the article ioannis76 uses is written by Abdullah Bozkurt who is a known Gülen supporter who is on record to call on his followers to be clandestine till they take over the government. A while ago they, along with AKP, were exposed for creating forged documents to accuse the Turkish military of a coup in order to speed promoting their own followers up the ranks. Not the kind of people you'd wanna get in bed with. It might also help to remember that in recent years Turkish drones bombed Russian backed Haftar forces in Libya, as well as Assad forces in Syria, and very recently armed Ukrainians with Turkish drones giving them production privileges.

First off, something that impresses me, is the extremely low level of rhetoric and expressions currently used by the turkish officials. In the past, at least one could respect the level of education of people such as the late Mesut Yilmaz (God rest his soul), who, at least managed to sound like actual politicians, with proper articulation and language for their position. Nowadays, it's as though the AKP had brought every goat herder from Anatolia to speak. They seem to be even worse than our officials. I believe that such people are easily manipulated in general.
Regarding the Gulenists. The EU goes to bed with Ukrainian nazis (actual nazis). It would be nothing new to them (pointing out that the EU and the West would probably support the opposite of what Russia would support due the West's idiotic knee jerk reaction).

Secondly, I doubt that Russia would press the issue of a few losses in Syria or Lybia (as long as they don't affect the strategic goals of Russia in the respective areas). Remember, that at some point, when the Russian jet (Su-25 if I am not mistaken) was shot down by a turkish F-16, the two countries seemed to be on the brink of war, and then Putin warned Erdogan of the imminent coup. Later on, Putin and Erdogan were making deals on the S400, and were even discussing the Su-57 (although it seems that a deal about that was never struck). Furthermore, there is the nuclear power plant that Russia is building for Turkey in the area of Akkuyu.

If Putin could use Erdogan's imperial ambitions to his advantage, why shouldn't he? The Greek-turkish relations seem to be NATO's "weak link", at least weakEST link. I think that would make it an apparent target for the Russians.

**PointOfViewGun** · February 19, 2022, 09:49 AM

Originally Posted by ioannis76

First off, something that impresses me, is the extremely low level of rhetoric and expressions currently used by the turkish officials. In the past, at least one could respect the level of education of people such as the late Mesut Yilmaz (God rest his soul), who, at least managed to sound like actual politicians, with proper articulation and language for their position. Nowadays, it's as though the AKP had brought every goat herder from Anatolia to speak. They seem to be even worse than our officials. I believe that such people are easily manipulated in general.
Regarding the Gulenists. The EU goes to bed with Ukrainian nazis (actual nazis). It would be nothing new to them (pointing out that the EU and the West would probably support the opposite of what Russia would support due the West's idiotic knee jerk reaction).

Secondly, I doubt that Russia would press the issue of a few losses in Syria or Lybia (as long as they don't affect the strategic goals of Russia in the respective areas). Remember, that at some point, when the Russian jet (Su-25 if I am not mistaken) was shot down by a turkish F-16, the two countries seemed to be on the brink of war, and then Putin warned Erdogan of the imminent coup. Later on, Putin and Erdogan were making deals on the S400, and were even discussing the Su-57 (although it seems that a deal about that was never struck). Furthermore, there is the nuclear power plant that Russia is building for Turkey in the area of Akkuyu.

If Putin could use Erdogan's imperial ambitions to his advantage, why shouldn't he? The Greek-turkish relations seem to be NATO's "weak link", at least weakEST link. I think that would make it an apparent target for the Russians.

It's the exact same kind of rhetoric you're using here, certainly. This latest post of yours and the one opening this thread together makes up a perfect and rather ironic example of that.

**dogukan** · February 20, 2022, 03:54 AM

The chances of action in Aegean has reduced significantly. Currently, Turkish military itself is unsure of it's superiority in the air of Aegean against HAF.
Turkey is also pressured a lot more by the Biden regime and EU recently. The previous militarist policies seemed to have failed miserably throughout the meditereanean. From Libya to the gas fields, Turkey has only ended up losing potential allies and leverage.
A military option is very unlikely now.

Besides, USA has given clear messages by moving many miltiary hardware and bases to Greece (Cretan base and the Thrace base). These are all clear signs to Turkey that their defensive role in NATO is not irreplaceable.
Erdoğan has once again turned to West in the last months as a result. In fact, Israeli leader is coming to Turkey as we speak.

So, to answer the OP. A big no.

**nhytgbvfeco2** · February 20, 2022, 04:08 AM

Originally Posted by dogukan

In fact, Israeli leader is coming to Turkey as we speak.

Well, not the leader (as that would be the prime minister), but rather the President (whose role is largely symbolic).

**Nebaki** · February 26, 2022, 11:53 AM

Originally Posted by dogukan

The chances of action in Aegean has reduced significantly. Currently, Turkish military itself is unsure of it's superiority in the air of Aegean against HAF.

This is not true you cannot gain just air superioty by numbers or some better Fighter models - the Ukraine Conflict is the best example for that.

Originally Posted by dogukan

Turkey is also pressured a lot more by the Biden regime and EU recently. The previous militarist policies seemed to have failed miserably throughout the meditereanean. From Libya to the gas fields, Turkey has only ended up losing potential allies and leverage.
A military option is very unlikely now.

Are you accusing Turkey of attacking an official Member of a Alliance which they are also part of it? The Turkish Republic has never done such foolish attempt and probably will also not do it in the future since it is not even necessary.

Originally Posted by dogukan

Besides, USA has given clear messages by moving many miltiary hardware and bases to Greece (Cretan base and the Thrace base).

That just happened because the Greek Lobby in the USA wanted see something for voting Biden as President that is all. What kind of clear messages USA has given to whom?

Originally Posted by dogukan

These are all clear signs to Turkey that their defensive role in NATO is not irreplaceable.

Well everyone is allowed to have fantasy...

Originally Posted by dogukan

Erdoğan has once again turned to West in the last months as a result. In fact, Israeli leader is coming to Turkey as we speak.

Must not Erdogan go in that case to Israel or USA? Those "West" but how it comes that country is located in the Middle East

**PointOfViewGun** · February 26, 2022, 12:16 PM

Yeah, its quite delusional to argue that USA moved troops and equipment to bases in Greece to counter Turkey.

**Nebaki** · February 26, 2022, 02:09 PM

Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun

Yeah, its quite delusional to argue that USA moved troops and equipment to bases in Greece to counter Turkey.

If just Ukraine got all that Stuff for free what they brought to Greece for some votes in the last elections...

**dogukan** · February 26, 2022, 02:12 PM

I never said the US movement to Greece was for countering Turkey.

I said that US was giving a message that it can simply pull the key defensive points to Greece.
In either case, USA reaches it's goals in ME and Ukraine.
Meanwhile they can wait until the anti-western government falls and Turkey rejoins th western institutional framework in a proper manner.

Its not like there is any alternative for Turkey.

**PointOfViewGun** · February 26, 2022, 02:23 PM

That's an equally false assessment. Deployment in Greece was not the moving of defense line from Turkey to Greece. It was about creating a new point of logistics against Russia.

**dogukan** · February 26, 2022, 03:00 PM

Turkey has far better coasts-ports and logistical capabilities to reach Ukraine.

USA clearly made the move during a time the diplomatic crisis between Erdoğan and West was at an all time high. Around that time, there was also talks of moving İncirlik to Romania or Greece.

**PointOfViewGun** · February 26, 2022, 03:03 PM

Correlation is not causation.

**ioannis76** · February 26, 2022, 03:39 PM

@dogukan, thank you for the insight.

**Bande Nere** · February 26, 2022, 03:40 PM

Originally Posted by ioannis76

Do you believe that Russia might diplomatically encourage Turkey to invade Greek islands in an attempt to cause more cracks in NATO's SE corner, as retaliation for western aggression against Russia in the Ukraine? As a reminder, Russia has already sold Turkey S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, which caused the US to react by imposing sanctions on Turkey:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/us-s...sian-s400.html

WAT?

Last I heard about the Turks they were closing the Dardanelle Straits to Russia's Navy, which in my humble understanding of geopolitics is not an act of friendship.

And again no, Greece is a fellow NATO member, that would make no sense even for the war criminal in Ankara, and considering his gov's extremely low repute worldwide(not counting a growing number of Muslim countries because of Turkey's zealously antisemitic espionage tvshows), such an attack would give NATO the perfect excuse to overthrow him(not gonna happen)

**PointOfViewGun** · February 26, 2022, 03:48 PM

Originally Posted by DavidBN

Last I heard about the Turks they were closing the Dardanelle Straits to Russia's Navy, which in my humble understanding of geopolitics is not an act of friendship.

To be accurate, that option is being evaluated, however, per Montreux, Turkey can not deny entry into Black Sea through Turkish straits if a Russian ship is on a return journey.

**Nebaki** · February 27, 2022, 06:38 AM

Originally Posted by dogukan

USA clearly made the move during a time the diplomatic crisis between Erdoğan and West was at an all time high. Around that time, there was also talks of moving İncirlik to Romania or Greece.

Really? Wasn´t that just some guys who was pissed off because of Turkish intervention in Syria? Funny that some 2-3 Politicians which thanks to be elected to the Israel-greek-armenian or whatever Lobby making such statements and you are counting a hole country for that ... hypocrisy at its finest.