Is Russia a marginal power?

**Nakura** · March 19, 2014, 08:58 AM

As the title poses, do you believe Russia is a marginal power or a great power? On one hand Russia is currently a problem (Georgia, Ukraine, Iran, etc.), but on the other, they are quickly becoming irrelevant in the world. Not only are they becoming irrelevant, but NATO forces could easily take back Crimea, Abkhazia/South Ossetia, Karelia/Ingria, etc. from the Russians with little real opposition (though there may be some Russian resistance). Even the potential political backlash for taking back annexed territories would be survivable if done properly.

However, does causing problems automatically make one a great power? Unlikely, as countries like Iran and North Korea, as well as non-state groups like Palestine and al-Qaeda also cause a lot of problems for the developed world. Almost every facet of Russia has been on the decline since the fall of the Soviet Union, from their economy, to their military and even their population. So the question I pose to you today is whether or not Russia is still a great power, or merely a marginal one?

Feel free to watch the video and hear out both arguments:

**Mathieu Of Belgium** · March 19, 2014, 09:08 AM

All nice and well, but you are forgetting one thing: Russia is still a nuclear power, so I don't think you can call them a marginal power at all

**mishkin** · March 19, 2014, 09:13 AM

The video

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

And what Mathieu have said.

**Dante Von Hespburg** · March 19, 2014, 09:33 AM

I wouldn't say that Russia is a major global player (though does it really need to be?), it has very little 'soft' influence where it matters (Africa, Asia or the West), and most of it's actual power stems from Oil and Gas, and in this respect it's reliant on it's buyers just as much as they are on it. So it's a very tenuous power. One further exacerbated by it's actual Rubbish raw materials economic base currently, which desperately and hopefully will be modernized, coupled with a potential for a large demographic crisis.

So no Russia in the traditional sense isn't a 'Great Power' as typically for that you need a large, prosperous and growing economy- one that's not on the edge of a meltdown for the past 30 years, and foreseeable future. (If sources are necessary, i can provide, though i believe i've talked and sourced these points to death on the Crimean and other threads- people are indeed probably bored of it by now!). With a large and varied economy comes real 'soft power' which is something Russia lacks, as others have pointed out, if and when Europe begins to develop renewable fuel and energy, we'll see Russia in deep trouble (that's if Putin or his successors haven't managed to reform it's economy).

On the other hand, does Russia need to be a 'Great Power' to have some influence over international events... Well yes. If we look at recent actions, they do have a permanent seat on the UN security council- which they've used to good effect in Syria- but arguably this is merely an empty power is it's by agreement in international law that they occupy that place- it doesn't have any real backing if their wasn't consensus. Then others may point to Russia in Crimea as an example of Russia still being a great power... but what actually have they done? Putin in response to a pro-russian president being thrown out has annexed Crimea, but lost the rest of the country to the pro-western government. Of course it's being blown out of all proportion by the media- but in terms of actual power- it's pretty limited.

Russias other actions- bullying and invading (rightly or wrongly) Georgia and previously turning off the Gas to Ukraine... these don't speak of a global player- but more a regional power exercising rather limited power over insignificant actors. So yes, Russia is a marginal power.

Of course being a Nuclear state could potentially change things, but then isn't actually much power from a deterrent, simply because the use of nuclear weapons results in MAD. So i'ts more of an empty power and guarantee of ones own safety- not a tool in global politics. Otherwise we could argue that the UK and France are right up there with the Great Powers still!

**conon394** · March 19, 2014, 10:15 AM

It is a marginal world power, and significant regional power that can fight above it's weight class because...

Ii inherited the USSR's security council seat
It got all the Nukes of the USSR as well.

Without those Russia would be a much more marginal player on the world stage and even regionally would have less credibility.

**Visna** · March 19, 2014, 10:50 AM

In what alternate reality has the Russian economy declined since the fall of the USSR? Sure, it's a vulnerable economy (but, barring a few exceptions, in these times what economies aren't?), but the claim that it has declined since the USSR is absurd.

**Dante Von Hespburg** · March 19, 2014, 06:29 PM

Originally Posted by Visna

In what alternate reality has the Russian economy declined since the fall of the USSR? Sure, it's a vulnerable economy (but, barring a few exceptions, in these times what economies aren't?), but the claim that it has declined since the USSR is absurd.

Who said it's declined? I said it's trash my friend, and has problems that Putin himself has admitted to, hence his reforms. The question is whether said reforms are effective, and in time.

Also it's vulnerable in a way that most aren't. It isn't a 'modern' economy per say, relying mostly on the export of raw materials (i.e. Oil and Gas are the two major ones to keep it in the Green) this of course has massive issues in the long run, it's unstable, especially as most buyers are looking towards other forms of energy (renewable, nuclear etc). Or in certain other cases, looking towards setting up other buyers.

Russia itself has no real manufacturing industry that matters, the trouble being they typically deal and export low tech...which is also what China, India, Malaysia etc do...but they do it cheaper. Hence it's dwindled. On top of this we have quite a severe demographic crisis looming for Russia, which potentially could see i believe it was a quarter (or 1/3rd i remembered currently) of their population decrease by 2100.

So i would indeed say their economy is trash- whether this had declined or not i cannot say, as the USSR had a rather different way of doing things.

**Visna** · March 20, 2014, 05:50 AM

Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg

Who said it's declined? .

The OP, not you

And yes, the USSR had a way of doing things that makes direct comparisons icky, but on pretty much every measurable parameter Russia today is wealthier than the USSR. Hence my, errm, request for clarification from the OP.

**Dante Von Hespburg** · March 20, 2014, 06:11 AM

Originally Posted by Visna

The OP, not you

And yes, the USSR had a way of doing things that makes direct comparisons icky, but on pretty much every measurable parameter Russia today is wealthier than the USSR. Hence my, errm, request for clarification from the OP.

Haha my bad my friend! I do apologize i was quite sleepy at the time of posting and totally misinterpreted!

Indeed though i think your quite right that modern with Russia we can safely say on average is economically better off than the USSR ever was. If nothing else due to the (beneficial/nefarious depending upon perspective!) of shameless capitalism. I'm not quite sure when Oil and Gas was actually sold to Europe (at large), i'm assuming it was after the collapse of the USSR, but i can't find much concrete evidence on this.

**Plan C** · March 19, 2014, 11:09 AM

Originally Posted by Nakura

As the title poses, do you believe Russia is a marginal power or a great power? On one hand Russia is currently a problem (Georgia, Ukraine, Iran, etc.), but on the other, they are quickly becoming irrelevant in the world. Not only are they becoming irrelevant, but NATO forces could easily take back Crimea, Abkhazia/South Ossetia, Karelia/Ingria, etc. from the Russians with little real opposition (though there may be some Russian resistance). Even the potential political backlash for taking back annexed territories would be survivable if done properly.

However, does causing problems automatically make one a great power? Unlikely, as countries like Iran and North Korea, as well as non-state groups like Palestine and al-Qaeda also cause a lot of problems for the developed world. Almost every facet of Russia has been on the decline since the fall of the Soviet Union, from their economy, to their military and even their population. So the question I pose to you today is whether or not Russia is still a great power, or merely a marginal one?

Feel free to watch the video and hear out both arguments:

Problem(s) for whom?

**Condottiere 40K** · March 19, 2014, 02:00 PM

It's a multipolar world, the question is more of the capability and willingness of the respective powers to define their interests and work to further them, whether by diplomatic, economic or military means.

**spanish_emperor** · March 19, 2014, 04:52 PM

In some sense it is and it may be a marginal power in the future but it would be incorrect to describe it as one now. Its military may have been technologically behind the US but it still has considerable power and lets not forget some of this technology still can match some of US new technology because it was excellently designed and made. Also, lets not forget that Russia has been on course to upgrade its military for some time now and the events in Crimea may bring forward this expensive upgrade. So what is Russia?

Well, to defining it as such or such power means that it either has significant influence in global events or it does not. That's what power means, that you can influence world events. Even if Russia's economy is below-par and a shadow of its former self it still has significant global influence which could be said to be due to nuclear weapons and veto power at UN SC. But it's also due to its control on oil and gas supplies to eastern europe and, rarely remembered, its vast control of a large chuck of Asia. It's ideally positioned to take advantage of oil and gas finds in the Arctic and still has considerable influence over most of its former Soviet Union states. It's influence in bringing Iran to the diplomatic table is also important and not solely because of its UNSC veto but also because it's regional influence on Iran. Also, let's not forget that their military is one of the largest in the region. Even a technologically backward state like Tsarist Russia in the late 1600s and early 1700s was a great power.

So is it a marginal power? No! It is a Great power, just like most books describe it as.

**ElvenKind** · March 19, 2014, 05:36 PM

If you have as many nukes as Russia has, then you are a great power.

**Rijul.J.Ballal** · March 28, 2014, 01:21 AM

Perhaps we should call it a great power, that keeps it's interests in only a few areas as opposed to other countries?

**IrishBlood** · March 29, 2014, 07:29 PM

Well look at it this way;

Who ARE the great powers of the world?

America obviously
China (population, economy)
France, uk? kinda, not really. Only a shadow of their former self.

Who else? India? Huge population and growing economy, but their power is limited to their own sub-continent and stretches no further.

How does Russia compare to the above? Well certainly the US is more powerful. Is Russia more powerful then China? I would think their pretty equal. In terms of military tech Russia is more powerful, but China is growing more rapidly in all other areas. In my opinion its a draw. Russia is without a doubt more powerful then France/UK, bigger nuke arsenal, military might, natural resources, economy. India? Similar to China, but with infinitely less influence on other nations or a threat of any kind to Russias interests, so for the purpose of this discussion I believe Russia is more 'powerful' than them.

In summery? Russia is joint second place with China behind America.

Russia might be a pale shadow compared to the bright neon light of the USA's power, but second place is not 'marginal'.

**Dante Von Hespburg** · March 30, 2014, 03:47 AM

Originally Posted by IrishBlood

Well look at it this way;

Who ARE the great powers of the world?

America obviously
China (population, economy)
France, uk? kinda, not really. Only a shadow of their former self.

Who else? India? Huge population and growing economy, but their power is limited to their own sub-continent and stretches no further.

How does Russia compare to the above? Well certainly the US is more powerful. Is Russia more powerful then China? I would think their pretty equal. In terms of military tech Russia is more powerful, but China is growing more rapidly in all other areas. In my opinion its a draw. Russia is without a doubt more powerful then France/UK, bigger nuke arsenal, military might, natural resources, economy. India? Similar to China, but with infinitely less influence on other nations or a threat of any kind to Russias interests, so for the purpose of this discussion I believe Russia is more 'powerful' than them.

In summery? Russia is joint second place with China behind America.

Russia might be a pale shadow compared to the bright neon light of the USA's power, but second place is not 'marginal'.

The issue here my friend is as i've stated, that economically Russia isn't anywhere near the UK and France, let alone China. It's economic structure is rotting at the core due a lack on real investment and a reliance solely on Oil and Gas (there main profitable enterprise that is really one of the only reasons they every receive any growth).

As such Military becomes negligible as in a real war operations could not be sustained for any serious length of time. It's a paper tiger. Thus isn't a 'Great Power' either. It's a regional power (In central Asia and Eastern Europe- East Asia is a different story with China being the top dog currently).

Nuclear Arsenal is a rather non-entity when it comes to being a 'Great power' the Uk for instance has an active stock pile of 165, no where near the US or even Russia, but it's enough to blow some poor sod off the face of the earth. So here i'd argue that merely having nukes, makes you relevant (of course then once you have them, theirs very little chance of their actual use even if your losing a war, due to the wonderful vision of MAD against any other nuclear power).

The only real 'Super-power' that ticks all the boxes is the US, followed by China- due to power projection, economy and military might- who is i'd say has super power potential, then i'd say you have the Britain (Worlds no.1 in soft power), France and Germany (Bit iffy on the last one, but like the UK German soft power is regarded quite highly i believe through the mechanism of the EU)- Britain and France have large economies (well, France is in trouble currently, but the UK's been growing successively now), Blue Water navies, the ability to power project (on a reduced scale when compared to the US- but that's why their not 'Super-powers') and are nuclear nations, so they tick all the boxes, but on a smaller scale- so again we have them as 'Great Powers' for want of a better term.

India is arguably a regional power- growing potentially to top China in the long term.

Russia on the other hand, as i've said- poor economy, massive demographic crisis (2100 they'll have lost a 3rd of their population to dependency potentially due to ageing population- couple this with the economy in desperate need of reform and you can understand Putins actions somewhat, Most EU nations have offset this with Immigration, indeed the UK has recorded recently positive population growth trends), a military capable of regional operations, and a nuclear arsenal- so i'd definitely argue here for Russia maybe not a marginal power, as that doesn't do it justice, but it is a regional power. No mean feat, but it's not to be exaggerated in it's current condition.

**Verr** · April 21, 2014, 11:31 AM

Originally Posted by IrishBlood

Well look at it this way;

Who ARE the great powers of the world?

America obviously
China (population, economy)
France, uk? kinda, not really. Only a shadow of their former self.

...

In summery? Russia is joint second place with China behind America.

Russia might be a pale shadow compared to the bright neon light of the USA's power, but second place is not 'marginal'.

also to reach something , you dont have to be powerfull on your own.
lets say they have concerns with US/NATO.
russia cant oppose them russia will not oppose them...alone.

so who is in the boat?
China? probably.
arabia? hm not in a direct way i guess.or not?
what about south america? much love for their american Brothers? doubt it
how about NATO - Turkey? will Turkey fight against greece (wont cause NATO to interfere , will it?)
or turn vs arabia ?

which side would india join? anti-China? or vs England?
africa? in doubt probly vs europe ? no idea here

**Remigijus** · March 29, 2014, 09:11 PM

I think it all depends on what actually constitutes "great power", for example, there seems to be a Russia vs west setting here, but what exactly makes western nations "great powers"? it seems like as soon as you take unity out of the equation you're left with nations which, aside from the US, are quite frankly - not so great. If largely interdependant nations retain great power status why shouldn't a nation which holds its ground in partial isolation?

Also, I think you'd be surprised at how much "opposition" the Russians could assemble against NATO there, while they have negligible power projection, the game is very different in their back yard.