Crimea 2.0: Transnistria wants to join Russia

[Maximinus Thrax]

The autonomous region of Transnistria has just expressed the wish to join Putin's empire:

The Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported on Tuesday that the Supreme Council of Transnistria has addressed the Russian State Duma Chairman with a request to provide the possibility for the unrecognized republic to join the Russian Federation, Ukrinform reports.
The Russian edition allegedly has a copy of the statement.

"A request to provide the possibility in the Russian legislation for Transnistria's joining Russia, addressed to State Duma Chairman Sergey Naryshkin, on behalf of the Supreme Council of the unrecognized republic was sent by its chairman Mikhail Burla," the publication writes.

However, yet there is no such information on the website of the Supreme Council of Transnistria.

Transnistria is a breakaway state located mostly on a strip of land between the River Dniester and the eastern Moldovan border with Ukraine.

In 2006, 97.2% of voters in a referendum supported Transnistria's accession to Russia. 200,000 Russian citizens currently live in Transnistria, the state language in the unrecognized republic is Russian.

Because of the Russian military contingent present in Transnistria, the European Court of Human Rights considers Transnistria "under the effective authority or at least decisive influence of Russia".

Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia are post-Soviet "frozen conflict" zones. These four unrecognized states maintain friendly relations with each other and form the Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations.

Source

[Armenum]

Putin doesn't need this. Enough annexation for one day.

[Heathen Hammer]

If majority of population supports such move, then they have a right.

[Treize]

It wouldn't be the first Russian exclave...

[RollingWave]

It wouldn't be the first Russian exclave...

It wouldn't be an exclave either since Russia will annex Ukraine pretty soon

[snuggans]

surprisingly few media sources reporting on this

http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/52743.html

Mikhail Burla, Chairman of the Supreme Council of Transnistria, sent a request to merge with Russia to Speaker of the Lower House of the Russian Parliament Sergey Naryshkin, Vedomosti reports.The request was made in the light of the recent A Fair Russia bill on the simplification of annexation in Russia. According to the document, a country may become a Russian territory via referendum regardless of its government’s opinion, if there is no efficient legitimate government in the country.
The party wihhdrew its bill yesterday.

ahh i love these utopian-like referendums of +95% in favor of joining Russia and all the parallels Transnistria shares with current Crimea, like the military occupation, silencing of opinion, questionable elections...

[Col. Tartleton]

Ah yes, the annexation of the Moldovan Sudetenland... No, not really.

2014 will be remembered as the year that Russia's landmass grew by like .01% through referendums and the world freaked out about their enormous militarist territorial ambitions.

[Mangalore]

Ah yes, the annexation of the Moldovan Sudetenland... No, not really.

2014 will be remembered as the year that Russia's landmass grew by like .01% through referendums and the world freaked out about their enormous militarist territorial ambitions.

It's not about the militarist ambitions but doing it without need when talking would have been an option. The issue is using militarist option first that is causing the outrage. Additionally it would have been nice to solve tons of issues before doing a referendum.

... Transinistria has 40% Romanians, 30% Ukrainians and 30% Russians. After the recent events in Crimea I doubt the Ukrainians would keep siding with the Russians. Plus Russia has no direct access to Transnistria.

Don't give Putiin ideas. A land bridge via Odessa might be nice!

[Dromikaites]

Transnistria presents an ace up the sleeve of the Ukrainians. If Russia invades southern Ukraine, the Ukrainians can invade Transnistria and force those 1000 Russian peacekeepers to surrender, or wipe them off the map. With no chance for resupply and probably not much support, Putin would be dealt quite a blow by such an event, even though he'd obviously be able to secure southern Ukraine.

Putin turned up to be less smart than I imagined, but I doubt his generals would encourage an extension towards Odessa, with one flank towards the Ukrainian army and another to the NATO fleet in the Black Sea, and with the advancing Russian troops within the range of the NATO air-force.

Whether the Ukrainians have considered as much is obviously not within my knowledge, but from where I'm standing it seems like a possibility. That said, such an event would be in a worst case scenario and I don't know how much Moldova and the Romanians would like such an occurrence, presumably they'd be upset at war reaching an area populated with their civilians, and in Moldova's case in their own country (or at least according to them within their own country).

The Ukrainians might cooperate with Moldova in order to evict the Russian forces from Transnistria. I doubt Ukraine would annex any piece of Moldovan territory because that would kill any Western support for them.

Don't give Putiin ideas. A land bridge via Odessa might be nice!

How would he get to Odessa?

Crimea is easy to reinforce over the Kerch strait, under the protection of the Russian air-force and navy.

Advancing along the Black Sea Coast, with the NATO fleet on the left flank, the Ukrainian army on the right flank and the NATO air-force above is not a very good tactical situation.

[Mangalore]

...

How would he get to Odessa?

Crimea is easy to reinforce over the Kerch strait, under the protection of the Russian air-force and navy.

Advancing along the Black Sea Coast, with the NATO fleet on the left flank, the Ukrainian army on the right flank and the NATO air-force above is not a very good tactical situation.

I was joking. Based on those Russian speakers in Ukraine = Russians, he might get tempted to annex the entire southern coastline.

[Col. Tartleton]

It's not about the militarist ambitions but doing it without need when talking would have been an option. The issue is using militarist option first that is causing the outrage. Additionally it would have been nice to solve tons of issues before doing a referendum.

I just don't like that using the threat of violence to redraw borders within Europe immediately leads to Hitler parallels in the dialogue. As if Hitler was unique in doing so or as if that was why his name has such an effect.

If anything he's Tsar Nicholas about to collapse his country by flirting with continental disaster. If this stops being a Russia-Ukrainian dispute and part or all of NATO enters the fray Russia will be thrown to the wolves and I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese People's Army doesn't join the coalition so they can take the opportunity to redraw their own borders with Russia. Plus the PRC needs the combat experience. It's been a while since they've had much of that. Heck maybe Japan will invoke self defense to retake the Northern islands.

And that's assuming everyone keeps their WMDs off the table.

[ShockBlast]

I just don't like that using the threat of violence to redraw borders within Europe immediately leads to Hitler parallels in the dialogue. As if Hitler was unique in doing so or as if that was why his name has such an effect.

If anything he's Tsar Nicholas about to collapse his country by flirting with continental disaster.

What not, Crimea is Russian Federation`s Sudetenland except the Sudetenland had a way bigger German majority.

[Dromikaites]

Hard to pull this after Crimea.

Transinistria has 40% Romanians, 30% Ukrainians and 30% Russians. After the recent events in Crimea I doubt the Ukrainians would keep siding with the Russians. Plus Russia has no direct access to Transnistria.

[Foreign Fruitcake]

Nice find... you will get epic props when the next border crumbles.

[Lazzeer]

Hard to pull this after Crimea.

Transinistria has 40% Romanians, 30% Ukrainians and 30% Russians. After the recent events in Crimea I doubt the Ukrainians would keep siding with the Russians. Plus Russia has no direct access to Transnistria.

This. I don't think Russia really has much to gain from this (except from freaking out Eastern Europe more), so part of me doubts this will happen. On the other hand, if Russia really does want Southern Ukraine, then this could be a step towards that.

[Sir Adrian]

Well they could get Transnistria, ask for an acess corridor and then move in and occupy other parts of Ukraine due to the corridor being in danger/people wanting to unify with them too.

[Dromikaites]

Well they could get Transnistria, ask for an acess corridor and then move in and occupy other parts of Ukraine due to the corridor being in danger/people wanting to unify with them too.

How exactly could they get Transnistria in practice? There are only 1,000 Russian troops in Transnistria, with no practical possibility of being reinforced.

[Sir Adrian]

How exactly could they get Transnistria in practice? There are only 1,000 Russian troops in Transnistria, with no practical possibility of being reinforced.

Same way they turned it into a russian version of Kosovo despite only 30% of the population wanting that to happen: a combination of political and economic pressure and cowardliness/disinterested from the EU

[Lazzeer]

Well they could get Transnistria, ask for an acess corridor and then move in and occupy other parts of Ukraine due to the corridor being in danger/people wanting to unify with them too.

Yeah, although this would be the surest way to trigger greater Western sanctions. It would be to essentially say to the west that Putin isn't going to stop. It also doesn't help that Transnistra is internationally recognised as part of Moldova, so annexation would be equivalent to Russia invading another state.

All that said, it's hard to work out exactly the thought process going on in the Kremlin atm. I don't think anyone really expected the invasion of Crimea, so it's possible we can't foretell what Russia will do next.

[Andreius Pretorianus]

If Putin manages to take Odessa and Donetk he will shurley take Transnistria.

Altough Moldovia is in my opinion an artificial state,who sooner or later will unify with the Romanian fatherland,it s pretences on Transnistria are not legitimate.It was never romanian soil,it was ukrainian soil given to Moldovia just to cause controversies and a motive of hatred between romanians and ukrainians,stalin style.

Transnistria to Ukraine,Moldovia to Romania.

Every war fought between european countries ,is a civil war !!

NO MORE BROTHER WARS.