French and Dutch local elections set to show Wilders and Le Pen as genuine forces in build up to EU elections

[King Gambrinus]

It's that time of year again, when we discuss the electoral chances of far-right populists in Europe, mainly defended by the American GOP hardcore on here, while the rest of us complain about the lack of education funding and general elitism from the centre-right and the legislated robbery of the centre-left.

Thankfully these are just locals and local issues will hopefully dominate. The Dutch seem to have understood this and are set to vote for local parties and D66 (who place great emphasis on local democracy, or used to anyway).

http://www.dutchnews.nl/elections/el...ists_d66_d.php

The big story is going to be the total implosion of PvdA. Their electorate doesn't seem as forgiving as VVD's and they look like they're going to go under 10% while their main rivals both to the centre (D66) and to the left (SP) will make impressive gains. As a Dutch resident and student I am thinking of voting D66 too. I just can't understand why nobody gave them a chance to govern on a national level before. In terms of Wilders Watch though it looks like he'll maintain his stranglehold on Limburg and will certainly get more overall votes than he did last time out. A shame, because local candidates are usually filled to the brim with paternalist nutjobs...So much for ''vrijheid''.

The French meanwhile, look set to punish Hollande's incompetence by deserting the Socialist Party. Surprisingly they look set to hold on to Paris (PS' Hidalgo vs UMP's ''NKM'' as she is called, I think the latter will lose because she is an awful human being and careerist.) UMP are in a continuous state of dissaray. Again the big winner is going to be Front National though. They're going to take a great deal of council seats in the south and far north of France. Because of their firebrand tactics though, they will not win as much as they could have :

http://www.latribune.fr/opinions/tri...vitrolles.html


So, in both countries the centre left are ed (whether deservedly or not is another issue, PvdA are just yet another victim of VVD blame-shifting IMO). The centre-right is in internal civil war so can't capitalise. And the eurosceptic ultra-conservative parties are on the rise and leading the polls for the European elections. Only difference in the political battlefield seems to be D66, and the French are too reactionary and melodramatic to ever want to vote for a social liberal party with sensible policies that would fight to take away powers from their President.

I'm belgian so its my patriotic duty to bash these two countries. Would be interesting to hear what the French and Dutch (as well as others of course) think.

[Thorn777]

D66 really? They make me vomit even more than the PvdA. Both are little neo-liberal enablers, but its to be expected from D66, although they also hide behind their dishonest London PR bureau language.

People wonder where choice went among the big parties. Its because of neo-liberalism they are all the same, which economic doctrines and the dependencies and lack of political power and funding it creates, makes choice within the confinements of traditional and experienced elite politicians impossible, fully knowing they do what they have to do. Ressurgance of SP and the petty fascist Wilders are the logical consequences.

Only question is how will they behave? Can neo-libealism swallow the SP with all its goodies for proffesional elites? Is Wilders not just a tool to split up popular opposition to keep it without teeth?

Democracy is much more hollowed out by neo-liberalism than the EU could ever achieve.

[Condottiere 40K]

The electorate can be fickle.

Those who promote extremist policies tend to disappoint their supporters once they are faced with governing a country with usually an inexperienced bunch of oddballs.

Except for the National Socialist German Workers Party. And they only managed it for twelve years before everything came crashing down.

[Thorn777]

Problem is that "extremist" used to be sound mainstream.

So conflict is inevitable...

[King Gambrinus]

I'm only voting D66 on a local level. If I had the opportunity to vote for the Dutch parliament I'd either vote SP or a protest party because D66 are guaranteed to to just throw away their entire programme in favour of power. But because D66 are finally making some headway in the polls, I think it's time they be given the opportunity to govern the country, on all levels, and hopefully without the VVD-PvdA axis. But we have to wait and see. I reckon if PvdA get a disastrous result then Samson is a dead man walking in his party. I expect the grassroots PvdA members to push for yet another collapse of government.

[Hobbes]

I'm belgiana nationalist so its my patriotic duty to bash these two countries.

Fixed.

[neoptolemos]

Fixed.

Yup it looks better expressed that way.

this could be interesting
http://metapolls.net/

[Treize]

Actually the party of Wilders only takes part in the elections of Almere and Den Haag, not in any other muncipality.

[King Gambrinus]

Fixed.

It was a joke. i love this country. I fear for France.

See, here up north our nationalism has become trivialised and playful. You should try that sometime in the Balkans instead of still having casus belli on your old foes.

Actually the party of Wilders only takes part in the elections of Almere and Den Haag, not in any other muncipality.

They have their equivalents depending on where you go. Liefbaar Stad is usually the same thing.

But yes, you're right, my main point was that Wilders is leading the polls for European elections.


Hellenic brothers, what is this new party in Greece called The River?

[neoptolemos]

Hellenic brothers, what is this new party in Greece called The River?

A new liberal democrat party
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014...rty-to-potami/

[Greymane]

The big story is going to be the total implosion of PvdA. Their electorate doesn't seem as forgiving as VVD's and they look like they're going to go under 10% while their main rivals both to the centre (D66) and to the left (SP) will make impressive gains. As a Dutch resident and student I am thinking of voting D66 too. I just can't understand why nobody gave them a chance to govern on a national level before. In terms of Wilders Watch though it looks like he'll maintain his stranglehold on Limburg and will certainly get more overall votes than he did last time out. A shame, because local candidates are usually filled to the brim with paternalist nutjobs...So much for ''vrijheid''.

So, in both countries the centre left are ed (whether deservedly or not is another issue, PvdA are just yet another victim of VVD blame-shifting IMO). The centre-right is in internal civil war so can't capitalise. And the eurosceptic ultra-conservative parties are on the rise and leading the polls for the European elections. Only difference in the political battlefield seems to be D66, and the French are too reactionary and melodramatic to ever want to vote for a social liberal party with sensible policies that would fight to take away powers from their President.

I'm belgian so its my patriotic duty to bash these two countries. Would be interesting to hear what the French and Dutch (as well as others of course) think.

In case of the Dutch, that is not entirely without reason, given the jokes you've had to suffer for so long now

To the matter at hand now.

I think a factor that some people overlook when talking about Dutch politics, is the complete collapse of GroenLinks (the Green Left). That party had kinda abandoned it's left-wing ideals (altough I was too young to take much interest in politics then, so maybe one of the senior members can correct me if I say anything wrong) and then participated in an agreement between the former government and several (centre right) opposition parties dubbed the Kunduz-agreement, in 2012. They had 10ish seats before that agreement and have like four seats now, so they have ceased to play any kind of a role in Dutch national politics. Other parties that have leftist ideals are not taken seriously (Party for Animals for example). That leaves PvdA, SP and Wilders' PVV. As you already described, PvdA lost most of it's electorate (potentially, we have yet to see the results) in the wake of their rather 'unfortunate' partnership with VVD. Now the big problem is that those votes have either gone to SP, PVV, or rightwing parties like D66. D66 is in a seat now, because no-one wants to form a coalition with SP (too leftist) and PVV (too anti-immigrants), leaving the left without any power at all. Yes, PVV and SP will likely grow, but until they together get more than 50% of the votes, the right-wing block that has emerged does not have to care about them at all. D66 will work with anyone except for the SP and PVV, so this puts them in an excelent position, especially since they have no problems with VVD and are likely to form a coalition in the future.

So the problem, as I see it, is that the left is fragmented while the right-wing parties are so many and powerful now that it's almost impossible that we won't see a right-wing coalition in the near future. PvdA and GroenLinks have effectively made themselves insignificant and the PVV helped them with that by stealing their votes.
It's quite a shame actually, because the PvdA was always the bridge between right and left. A strong PvdA will force all sides to move to the center and reach consensus, but with most of the centre left gone, they could not keep it up and, to govern, where forced to move to the right. Now D66 has more or less taken that role, but they are way further to the right so any coalition to develop is likely to be way to the right. That goes for national and local elections.

Careful readers will have noticed that I have implicitly called the PVV a leftist party. The prime minister just said that on the news And it's true, as far as economics is concerned. The fact that they have (arguably) detestable ideas where foreigners are concerned, makes the left not want to co-operate with them.


Now, after this lengthy essay () on Dutch national politics (which maybe looks to be irrelevant and might not even be completely factual), let's get to the European elections. That right-wing parties, partially to keep power, have a very similar policy where the EU is concerned (and where most other things are concerned). Even D66 is in favor of giving more of our sovereignity to the EU (as Thorn said already, they will do anything for power). That leaves SP and PVV. Since the PVV presents itself as the most vocal opposer of the EU (the SP is a little more reserved) and has chances of succeeding (by an alliance with Le Pen), they will get the most votes. Also, the leap from VVD to PVV is not very hard to make, since both parties profile themselves as anti-left. What also contributes, is people have noticed that every centre right party they vote for is pretty much the same party with a different name. People know that this is not likely to change, so voting PVV in the European elections is also some kind of protest to what they view as the big neo-liberal conspiracy happening in national politics.

So, long story short: In my view, the complete collapse of everthing that can be called centre left has led to a reasonably powerful right wing and to the rise of more extreme parties. So, I agree mostly with your analysis, except that I think that the left (as a whole) has completely cut it's own throat because the two major opposition parties will never work together. And I DO think that the right-wing is going to capitalize. Meanwhile, the SP and PVV will continue to grow and they will continue to be ignored. Except where they seek coalitions with parties from other countries.

[King Gambrinus]

A new liberal democrat party
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014...rty-to-potami/

And what do you think of them?

In case of the Dutch, that is not entirely without reason, given the jokes you've had to suffer for so long now

To the matter at hand now.

I think a factor that some people overlook when talking about Dutch politics, is the complete collapse of GroenLinks (the Green Left). That party had kinda abandoned it's left-wing ideals (altough I was too young to take much interest in politics then, so maybe one of the senior members can correct me if I say anything wrong) and then participated in an agreement between the former government and several (centre right) opposition parties dubbed the Kunduz-agreement, in 2012. They had 10ish seats before that agreement and have like four seats now, so they have ceased to play any kind of a role in Dutch national politics. Other parties that have leftist ideals are not taken seriously (Party for Animals for example). That leaves PvdA, SP and Wilders' PVV. As you already described, PvdA lost most of it's electorate (potentially, we have yet to see the results) in the wake of their rather 'unfortunate' partnership with VVD. Now the big problem is that those votes have either gone to SP, PVV, or rightwing parties like D66. D66 is in a seat now, because no-one wants to form a coalition with SP (too leftist) and PVV (too anti-immigrants), leaving the left without any power at all. Yes, PVV and SP will likely grow, but until they together get more than 50% of the votes, the right-wing block that has emerged does not have to care about them at all. D66 will work with anyone except for the SP and PVV, so this puts them in an excelent position, especially since they have no problems with VVD and are likely to form a coalition in the future.

So the problem, as I see it, is that the left is fragmented while the right-wing parties are so many and powerful now that it's almost impossible that we won't see a right-wing coalition in the near future. PvdA and GroenLinks have effectively made themselves insignificant and the PVV helped them with that by stealing their votes.
It's quite a shame actually, because the PvdA was always the bridge between right and left. A strong PvdA will force all sides to move to the center and reach consensus, but with most of the centre left gone, they could not keep it up and, to govern, where forced to move to the right. Now D66 has more or less taken that role, but they are way further to the right so any coalition to develop is likely to be way to the right. That goes for national and local elections.

Careful readers will have noticed that I have implicitly called the PVV a leftist party. The prime minister just said that on the news And it's true, as far as economics is concerned. The fact that they have (arguably) detestable ideas where foreigners are concerned, makes the left not want to co-operate with them.


Now, after this lengthy essay () on Dutch national politics (which maybe looks to be irrelevant and might not even be completely factual), let's get to the European elections. That right-wing parties, partially to keep power, have a very similar policy where the EU is concerned (and where most other things are concerned). Even D66 is in favor of giving more of our sovereignity to the EU (as Thorn said already, they will do anything for power). That leaves SP and PVV. Since the PVV presents itself as the most vocal opposer of the EU (the SP is a little more reserved) and has chances of succeeding (by an alliance with Le Pen), they will get the most votes. Also, the leap from VVD to PVV is not very hard to make, since both parties profile themselves as anti-left. What also contributes, is people have noticed that every centre right party they vote for is pretty much the same party with a different name. People know that this is not likely to change, so voting PVV in the European elections is also some kind of protest to what they view as the big neo-liberal conspiracy happening in national politics.

So, long story short: In my view, the complete collapse of everthing that can be called centre left has led to a reasonably powerful right wing and to the rise of more extreme parties. So, I agree mostly with your analysis, except that I think that the left (as a whole) has completely cut it's own throat because the two major opposition parties will never work together. And I DO think that the right-wing is going to capitalize. Meanwhile, the SP and PVV will continue to grow and they will continue to be ignored. Except where they seek coalitions with parties from other countries.

Thanks for your reply, Graymane! Some interesting analysis.

Here are the latest polls if the Dutch were to vote now.

http://metapolls.net/category/europe/netherlands/

SP and PVV are already the two biggest parties. I think that has to do with the European elections coming up, but still, its looking ominous if you are, as you said, part of the Kunduz club.

Anyway, I have a few remarks regarding your position :

I've also considered voting GroenLinks but their old christian wing and integrist politics rather than technological innovation have put me right off. If somebody put a gun to my head and said I had to vote for one of the Kunduz parties I'd vote for them though. And their candidates here seem increasingly impressive rather than the usual Green stereotype. However, I'd much prefer it if the dutch Greens were like their Flemish counterparts, Groen!, and even ecolo in Wallonia. then they'd have my active support.

I'm not sure why D66, as liberal democrat, should be considered right-wing, particularly when you consider what they're up against. They are basically economically right but socially very left, plus the funding of education and basic needs. Also they would democratise the system more and add some transparency. I'm no fan of neo-liberalism as you might have guessed, but if we're going to live in this system at least let's get people who are willing to implement it in a proper fashion, and actually know what liberalism was supposed to be.

I expect PVV to win European elections followed by SP and D66. Then people will flock back to VVD out of fear of their tax regimes and Wilders actually becoming Prime Minister, which would be disastrous. Then the Netherlands will probably have a VVD-CDA-D66 coalition, perhaps with PvdA too just to confirm they have become a right-wing party. There is absolutely no chance of either the CDA working hte PVV or Kunduz happening again so that's the only way I see it turning out.

[Greymane]

Thanks for your reply, Graymane! Some interesting analysis.

Here are the latest polls if the Dutch were to vote now.

http://metapolls.net/category/europe/netherlands/

SP and PVV are already the two biggest parties. I think that has to do with the European elections coming up, but still, its looking ominous if you are, as you said, part of the Kunduz club.

Anyway, I have a few remarks regarding your position :

I've also considered voting GroenLinks but their old christian wing and integrist politics rather than technological innovation have put me right off. If somebody put a gun to my head and said I had to vote for one of the Kunduz parties I'd vote for them though. And their candidates here seem increasingly impressive rather than the usual Green stereotype. However, I'd much prefer it if the dutch Greens were like their Flemish counterparts, Groen!, and even ecolo in Wallonia. then they'd have my active support.

I'm not sure why D66, as liberal democrat, should be considered right-wing, particularly when you consider what they're up against. They are basically economically right but socially very left, plus the funding of education and basic needs. Also they would democratise the system more and add some transparency. I'm no fan of neo-liberalism as you might have guessed, but if we're going to live in this system at least let's get people who are willing to implement it in a proper fashion, and actually know what liberalism was supposed to be.

I expect PVV to win European elections followed by SP and D66. Then people will flock back to VVD out of fear of their tax regimes and Wilders actually becoming Prime Minister, which would be disastrous. Then the Netherlands will probably have a VVD-CDA-D66 coalition, perhaps with PvdA too just to confirm they have become a right-wing party. There is absolutely no chance of either the CDA working hte PVV or Kunduz happening again so that's the only way I see it turning out.

Not sure I understand the bolded part. As I see it, for the Kunduz club (minus GroenLinks), it's looking great, because CDA, VVD and D66 are likely to get a majority on their own. And if not: getting CU, SGP or PvdA to co-operate is not that hard anymore.
Or do you mean me? Because I think you misunderstand where I am coming from then. I am a socialist, SP is likely to get my vote. Just to put everything I posted into perspective

I agree with your remarks, but there are two kinda ironic things about D66 that come to mind from reading it.
1. They are/have become what the VVD should be: a socially liberal party that is aimed at improving democracy and individual freedom ('vrijheid en democratie'/'freedom and liberty'), while having a very right-wing economic policy (again aimed at individual freedom).
2. D66 was one of the parties that voted against a referendum being held about the EU. Interestingly enough, the SP was in favor (the support of the PVV is not surprising, considering that GW thinks most Dutch people want out of the EU). Also, I haven't read D66 plans for Amsterdam, but I have read the plans of the SP and the amount of freedom and responsibility that they want to give the citizens of Amsterdam is pretty difficult to top, even for D66 (not blowing the SP horn, we have more than enough of that, but just saying).

People are realize that EU is only good for the speculators and big enterprises,lately the common people don't get many benefits from it.

Interesting thing is, that pretty much the same goes for what the VVD has been up to lately. GW (Geert Wilders, who 'is' the PVV) claims to be standing for the common man, so people flock to him, both in Europe and in the national elections. Whether GW is right or not doesn't matter at all for the public opinion. As long a stories keep surfacing about people being forced to work for a handout (so below minimum wage) as a result of VVD policy, people will even be prepared to accept his views on immigrants. The same goes for the EU. It's no wonder that the EU wanted to keep some very questionable deals (Monsanto and the like) quiet, because if it get's out, they have just facilitated the rise of extreme-right/nationalist parties, as those parties are the only ones speaking out against the EU (together with the odd socialist party that everyone seems to ignore...).

[pajomife]

People are realize that EU is only good for the speculators and big enterprises,lately the common people don't get many benefits from it.

[Thorn777]

People are realize that EU is only good for the speculators and big enterprises,lately the common people don't get many benefits from it.

Maybe people should realize thats a problem everywhere, inside and outside the EU.

Maybe it helps to get that if you want to get rid of something you have to know what it is and what to do about it.

But hey, thats just me....

[Timoleon of Korinthos]

And what do you think of them?

Creatures of the block of media owners/construction section magnates and other crony capitalists that have been hastily assembled in the hopes of keeping centre left alive in light of the upcoming disastrous performance and subsequent dissolution of PASOK

[Stavroforos]

Creatures of the block of media owners/construction section magnates and other crony capitalists that have been hastily assembled in the hopes of keeping centre left alive in light of the upcoming disastrous performance and subsequent dissolution of PASOK

Watching the disproportionate amount of attention this silly party is getting, which is as you described it, is amusing, but knowing how stupid many Greeks are, it'll probably help them get more votes. All they need to do get the cast of Klemmena Oneira on board.

[King Gambrinus]

Voted D66. It really looks like they could win Amsterdam, Utrecht and other big cities. I know that some are voting PvdA just to make sure VVD don't come in due to the plural nature of the left and VVD's ridiculous pandering to PVV voters with their anti-immigrant stance.

Graymane, my only problem with SP is their attitude towards immigrants and expats. They claim to be pro-integration of immigrants and supportive of immigration yet their EU stance (which I admire if not totally agree with - certainly a more constructive euroscepiticism than the extreme right or UKIP) and ther total unwillingness to campaign for foreigners seem to contradict that view. I see them taking the place of PvdA as a proper social democrat party, kind of like Syriza in Greece. But their local candidates here were just too distant towards foreigners for my taste. Besides, I think I like many others actually want to see what D66 are capable of. I know a lot of people call them VVD-lite, but when you talk to their candidates and read their programme they actually have sensible, realistic policies rather than ridiculous posturing. I know Eurofederalism is out of fashion but I'd rather they be honest and tell their electorate what they think rather than VVD's stance, which is just a blatant lie.

Now for the results.

[Greymane]

Voted D66. It really looks like they could win Amsterdam, Utrecht and other big cities. I know that some are voting PvdA just to make sure VVD don't come in due to the plural nature of the left and VVD's ridiculous pandering to PVV voters with their anti-immigrant stance.

Graymane, my only problem with SP is their attitude towards immigrants and expats. They claim to be pro-integration of immigrants and supportive of immigration yet their EU stance (which I admire if not totally agree with - certainly a more constructive euroscepiticism than the extreme right or UKIP) and ther total unwillingness to campaign for foreigners seem to contradict that view. I see them taking the place of PvdA as a proper social democrat party, kind of like Syriza in Greece. But their local candidates here were just too distant towards foreigners for my taste. Besides, I think I like many others actually want to see what D66 are capable of. I know a lot of people call them VVD-lite, but when you talk to their candidates and read their programme they actually have sensible, realistic policies rather than ridiculous posturing. I know Eurofederalism is out of fashion but I'd rather they be honest and tell their electorate what they think rather than VVD's stance, which is just a blatant lie.

Now for the results.

And THAT is exactly the kind of thinking that got us into trouble in the first place

Fair point about the SP, but it's almost impossible to agree with every policy of a political party.
That said, I have yet to read their party program for the EU and national elections.
It is, however, clear that the EU policy on immigrants from (Eastern) Europe (that VVD and also D66 support) is not sustainable. With the unemployement rates that we have, allowing all kinds of immigrants to come in and do work below our minimum wage, is going to drag down our economy because the benefits that have to be paid to the unemployed will rise. It's purely pragmatic on their side because, let's face it, even raising the minimum wage and strictly enforcing that no one works below it, is not going to completely solve the problems.
Maybe they are a little more radical than that, but this is what I gleaned from the news because I (as stated earlier) have yet to read their plans.

Afaik, SP has nothing against immigrants for being from other cultures (contrary to the PVV) and actually strives to integrate them. At least in the Amsterdam election program

D66 is a very interesting (and to be honest, pretty unreliable) party, but I strongly disagree with their economic policies, so that is a no go for me. If they would cut their crap and actually look to the left, instead of the right, to form a coalition, pretty interesting things might happen. Unfortunately, the chances of that happening are not huge. The thing with D66, is that they percieve that if they want to be in the government, the left can offer them little. To work with SP, D66 would have to do a lot of concessions and PvdA and the Green Left are not going to play a major role, I reckon. This kinda forces them to look to the VVD, as the PVV is a no go area for them too, if only because how well Geert Wilders and Alexander Pechtold like each other
This creates the (not entirely unjustified) perception that they are indeed VVD-lite.


(Oh, and it's Greymane, with an e )
(Not a big deal, but misspelling of names always irks me, for some reason )

[Treize]

VVD here... We need that ring road.