Ukraine and Crimea development thread

[Durnaug]

The West poured billions into the protests (Nuland boasted about at least 5 billion) and top officials were caught discussing regime change in a private conversation. This was reported on multiple sources. So that's the public knowledge - who can guess what covert elements were involved. I heard reports that highly trained elements were sent into help the protestors. Furthermore you cannot ignore the wider historical and strategic context, i.e. NATO has all along wanted to expand into the former Soviet areas.

Western interference is palpable - that's the reality to which we need to return. Not the false MSM fuelled narrative of a democratic coup. It didn't happen.

Slydessertfox is making the mistake that the West entered the war because of the holocaust. We did not. We entered the war because Germany invaded Poland (this was the initial trigger and then you have Hitler attacking Russia then Japan attacking the US and Germarny declaring war on the US. But Poland is the initial cause for which we fought). In fact we turned away Jewish refugees seeking safety. That is why Israel is quite right to laugh at the concept of international law. Sure didn't George Bush engage in a war of aggression in Iraq, quite literally breaking the principle crime outlined at Nuremberg? The West is supremely hypocritical in all these matters.

[adamove]

I think Russia has already lost. In worst case scenario, they will be forced by the USA to return to the ante-bellum status quo, except without Janukovich as their regional governor. In best case scenario, Ukraine will be partitioned and the RF will incorporate Crimea, which they had already controlled de facto with the Russophones, the Russian businesses dominating the area and the military base. But they will send the rest of Ukraine straight into the arms of EU and Nato, and their influence there will collapse - as long as the EU is willing to aid Ukraine with their pressing, short-term economic needs, so that they don't turn back to Kremlin like the proverbial son- whereas before Yanukovich's flight they had leverage over the entire country.

So I don't think the EU needs to do anything else than send some troops to guarantee the independence of western Ukraine and wait it out, until control over a sizeable zone of what was once Russia's backyard is cemented politically. And we can't afford to do anything more anyway, as long as we want unobstructed flow of Russian gas and oil keep feeding our markets.




I have to admit, I am gently amused by the spectre of the Russian boogeyman making eastern and north-eastern Europeans their pants.

for u its all fine in anti atomic shelter build by jew money u steal, and now even more money from oligarchs LOL

i would call u by name PUS....

[KieKeBooN]

NATO destabilized Ukraine and facilitated an armed putsch to replace a Russian stooge. So now we have undemocratic Western stooges in power in Kiev with clear neo-nazi elements. Russia reacts by ensuring that Crimea is not taken over by the same regime. Both sides are guility of escalation. So one possible outcome is a militarization of both parts of Ukraine and a new cold war ensures. Which NATO would love - all that lovely military spending.

However, if both sides (Russia & Ukraine) can be brought to the table and the rights of everyone are recognized (including Russia's strategic interests) then I see no reason why there should be war. However if NATO wants to "win", as in remove all Russian influence from the region, especially the Crimea, then she has to expect a fight. The US didn't just roll over when the Soviets interfered in Cuba.

[EDIT: for the record - the Georgians started the 2008 war]

Oh, Ukraine got into a tug of war between the EU and the Russian federation and both sides have done their best to influence the situation in Ukraine to their best interests. I'm not picking sides here. But Russia just invaded Ukraine, there's no denying that thereby violating international law AND directly challenging western geopolitical power. Neither powers are really trying to start a war, because they can't afford it. But this is a game of Poker and Russia just started it's bluff, it's either folding or raising the stakes. If the EU mobilizes it's forces (and there still plenty of material left in Europe to make the Russians get a run for their money) Putin knows the EU will go a lot further than he expected, and he will thus need to consider his next move very carefully.

For that Record, Georgia started no war with Russia. Russia intervened in a domestic affair in a foreign nation, just as it does now and in did in Moldova in 1992. Oh yes, a Russian military base was 'shelled', and this time 'nazi's' sent by Kiev where attacking Russian possesions in Crimea or whatever. They're ploys, cheap tricks to create a nice causi belli for an invasion. A trick Russia has used several times by now, I don't give them much credibility.

[Mary The Quene]

So we're on the edge of war.............

[Durnaug]

Oh, Ukraine got into a tug of war between the EU and the Russian federation and both sides have done their best to influence the situation in Ukraine to their best interests. I'm not picking sides here. But Russia just invaded Ukraine, there's no denying that thereby violating international law AND directly challenging western geopolitical power. Neither powers are really trying to start a war, because they can't afford it. But this is a game of Poker and Russia just started it's bluff, it's either folding or raising the stakes. If the EU mobilizes it's forces (and there still plenty of material left in Europe to make the Russians get a run for their money) Putin knows the EU will go a lot further than he expected, and he will thus need to consider his next move very carefully.

For that Record, Georgia started no war with Russia. Russia intervened in a domestic affair in a foreign nation, just as it does now and in did in Moldova in 1992. Oh yes, a Russian military base was 'shelled', and this time 'nazi's' sent by Kiev where attacking Russian possesions in Crimea or whatever. They're ploys, cheap tricks to create a nice causi belli for an invasion. A trick Russia has used several times by now, I don't give them much credibility.

I think your analysis about Ukraine is spot on.

But protestations about international law coming from Obama and Cameron are to be taken with a pinch of salt - the West has been violating it for years now. Sure didn't you hear that the US declared the entire world a "combat zone"? Nah, any guff about international law coming from our leaders is all part of the propaganda war.

I don't agree with your analysis of the Georgian conflict - the first shots were fired by the Georgians.

[Timoleon of Korinthos]

Me too but the things is that Russia is an important trading partner for my country and the EU and NATO constantly making trouble with Russia (pushed for this by insane, paranoid Poles and Baltics) annoys me a great deal.

I agree wholeheartedly. Russian tourists are either the first or the second most important group of tourists for our economy. They are our fifth largest trading partner with respect to exports and third with respect to imports, mostly because we import 50-60% of our gas from them on a daily basis; if they turn off the valves, LNG we import from Algeria is going to last for 6 days. 12 if industrial consumption is shut down as an emergency measure. We have absolutely no reason to strain our relations with them. Least of all about a region that is historically rightfully theirs and which the communist regime robbed them of.

for u its all fine in anti atomic shelter build by jew money u steal, and now even more money from oligarchs LOL

i would call u by name PUS....

You are absolutely right. The Swiss decided to freeze the accounts Yanukovic and about 20 members of his cabinet have in Swiss banks 2 days ago. That is after Janukovic was hounded from power and it became clear that he is a burned card in Ukrainian politics. No doubt they will confiscate the money for themselves instead of returning it to the Ukrainian government, like they have always done on similar occasions of regime change (Persian Shah, Gaddafi, Hussein, Suharto or even Greece's convicted ex-minister Tsochantzopoulos). But I am not Swiss

[Mangalore]

The West poured billions into the protests (Nuland boasted about at least 5 billion) and top officials were caught discussing regime change in a private conversation. This was reported on multiple sources. So that's the public knowledge - who can guess what covert elements were involved. I heard reports that highly trained elements were sent into help the protestors. Furthermore you cannot ignore the wider historical and strategic context, i.e. NATO has all along wanted to expand into the former Soviet areas.

Western interference is palpable - that's the reality to which we need to return. Not the false MSM fuelled narrative of a democratic coup. It didn't happen.

...

No, we do not need to return to that reality because it actually doesn't matter. Russia is aggressively using military force to change the political landscape without provocation by anyone. It's fascinating how the Russian media suddenly spun up a dozen different stories about the evil west and beleaguered Crimea within a day _after_ strange militia popped up there. There is not really an excuse, even fickle fingering the West is just a cheaply constructed strawman. Again, the only side destabilizing the Ukraine and using military force is one side making flimsy BS up to justify it.

There is stuff that has no excuses. Putin is just doing one of these things.

[Vilkas09]

ALL HAIL RUSSKIES



Polish peasant beware the mighty Putikus

[Durnaug]

There is stuff that has no excuses. Putin is just doing one of these things.

Indeed. If the West destabilizes a democratic country in order to further its strategic interests in the area then you can expect a response from the Russians. There are no goodies in this story. We cannot keep assuming we can violently overthrow non-complient regimes and expect no consequences. By all means criticize Putin but the silence about Western actions continues to amuse and infuriate.

[Timoleon of Korinthos]

No, we do not need to return to that reality because it actually doesn't matter. Russia is aggressively using military force to change the political landscape without provocation by anyone. It's fascinating how the Russian media suddenly spun up a dozen different stories about the evil west and beleaguered Crimea within a day _after_ strange militia popped up there. There is not really an excuse, even fickle fingering the West is just a cheaply constructed strawman. Again, the only side destabilizing the Ukraine and using military force is one side making flimsy BS up to justify it.

There is stuff that has no excuses. Putin is just doing one of these things.

Putin has the exact same excuse to alter the political landscape in Ukraine as the NATO had when they partitioned Serbia. And definitely much more legitimacy in occupying Crimea than the Coallition of the Willing had when they invaded and occupied Iraq.

I am still waiting for your insight as an insider as far as Germany's response is concerned, though. You believe the German industrialists will allow Merkel to push either for military action in the context of NATO operations or economic sanctions against Putin's regime?

[Architect of Doom]

Look at this video ("Russian combat helicopters crossed the border of Ukraine", when translated from portuguese to english):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yg-FyQeOZy8

Also, just look at the news. I seems like Russia has been sending her troops to Crimea.


(From PolandBall)

Should we create a new thread regarding this likely war, or we will continue discussing it here?

[KieKeBooN]

So we're on the edge of war.............

An actual full-scale war isn't yet likely to happen, unless Ukraine is going to respond militarily, but even in that case it's likely going to gather enough allies first which means the EU and the US have to formulate the next move.

But protestations about international law coming from Obama and Cameron are to be taken with a pinch of salt - the West has been violating it for years now. Sure didn't you hear that the US declared the entire world a "combat zone"? Nah, any guff about international law coming from our leaders is all part of the propaganda war.

Oh don't get my started on the hypocrisy of US (or EU for that matter) geopolitics. There is no good and evil in geopolitics, it only depends on which side you're on. Neither is there a moral high ground, for geopolitics is almost intrinsicly a dirty affair. But international law is useless if it isn't enforced. And hey, declaring an invasion of foreign territory illegal sounds benign enough to me, even though it has been violated countless of times (and yes by the US too).

No, we do not need to return to that reality because it actually doesn't matter. Russia is aggressively using military force to change the political landscape without provocation by anyone. It's fascinating how the Russian media suddenly spun up a dozen different stories about the evil west and beleaguered Crimea within a day _after_ strange militia popped up there. There is not really an excuse, even fickle fingering the West is just a cheaply constructed strawman. Again, the only side destabilizing the Ukraine and using military force is one side making flimsy BS up to justify it.

There is stuff that has no excuses. Putin is just doing one of these things.

I'm positively sure this ploy is used to convince 'voters' at home, rather than providing an actual viable causi belli on the international scene. If anything, Putin has shown a blatand disregard for international politics/relations lately.

Indeed. If the West destabilizes a democratic country in order to further its strategic interests in the area then you can expect a response from the Russians. There are no goodies in this story. We cannot keep assuming we can violently overthrow non-complient regimes and expect no consequences. By all means criticize Putin but the silence about Western actions continues to amuse and infuriate.

Russia had to act, the fact that Ukraine now has a pro-EU governemt meant Russia was on the brink of losing the tug of war. It has one option: Destabilise the situation and force the current government to fall. I'd say it's making a good effort.

[Aanker]

Architect of Doom, I think you're a bit late to the party...

[Imperial]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvaqoo0wGEk

[Architect of Doom]

Architect of Doom, I think you're a bit late to the party...

After seeing this thread had 81 pages, I realized I was late. When I posted, I though it only had a few pages and it was a still "shocking news" here.

[Slydessertfox]

Slydessertfox is making the mistake that the West entered the war because of the holocaust. We did not.

Read my post again-and actually read it this time, rather than twisting it to say what you want it to say.

We entered the war because Germany invaded Poland (this was the initial trigger and then you have Hitler attacking Russia then Japan attacking the US and Germarny declaring war on the US. But Poland is the initial cause for which we fought).

Which I said. Now again, if you read my post, I said the US was disgusted about the Holocaust-which we were, when we discovered it. Never once did I even imply that was why we declared war.

In fact we turned away Jewish refugees seeking safety.

Before the systematic extermination began, but yes it was a terrible thing to do-so that means we shouldn't have been disgusted when we learned about the Holocaust right?

That is why Israel is quite right to laugh at the concept of international law. Sure didn't George Bush engage in a war of aggression in Iraq, quite literally breaking the principle crime outlined at Nuremberg? The West is supremely hypocritical in all these matters.

And you will find that I consider Bush to be a war criminal, as well as the invasion of Iraq to be illegal and a terrible thing to do. That does not however give Russia license to invade Ukraine, nor should it prevent the US from standing up to blatant Russian aggression. Again, it's tantamount to saying the west shouldn't have stood up to Hitler because they had colonies.

[conon394]

if they turn off the valves, LNG we import from Algeria is going to last for 6 days. 12 if industrial consumption is shut down as an emergency measure. We have absolutely no reason to strain our relations with them. Least of all about a region that is historically rightfully theirs and which the communist regime robbed them of.

This... I mean basically Putin knows he has the Energy Trump card here. If the US want's to balance that Obama needs needs to go mum and work this and let Putin have his toy - there is just nothing for it. In the medium term he needs to freack frack frack and spend more federal money on dealing with its negative sides and get more LNG export terminals built. That will do more than walking out on a G8 summit.

[GussieFinkNottle]

The Crimea has effectively seceded, forming its own government, declaring a prime minister and attracting high-level defectors from the Ukrainian establishment: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26410431
Some factions in the Crimea requested Russian military help, including pro-Russian paramilitary groups

Putin has deployed troops to support his proxy militias in the Crimea.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26400035
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26379722

Obama strongly condemns Putin's actions, trying to dissuade him in a tense 90-minute phone call. American-Russian relations have hit a new low.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/op...f=opinion&_r=0
The EU stands by helplessly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...look-weak.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ukraine-mounts
What's next?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26407604
Ukraine's Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk declares 'we are on the brink of disaster' and that Putin's invasion is 'a declaration of war'.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...22c_story.html

If it is, US Secretary of State John Kerry thinks Russia 'will lose'.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ce-in-ukraine/
Is it the fault of the Russians, the Ukrainians, the Crimeans ... or Putin?
Edit: or for you conspiracy theorists, the USA?

Could this be war, the first war in Europe in the 21st century?
Few have much faith that Putin can be stopped in the near future.

[Timoleon of Korinthos]

And you will find that I consider Bush to be a war criminal, as well as the invasion of Iraq to be illegal and a terrible thing to do. That does not however give Russia license to invade Ukraine, nor should it prevent the US from standing up to blatant Russian aggression.

No, the fact the neither Bush nor any magnate of his regime are ever going to impeached for their crimes does.

Again, it's tantamount to saying the west shouldn't have stood up to Hitler because they had colonies.

Because Poland was historically German, right?

[Slydessertfox]

No, the fact the neither Bush nor any magnate of his regime are ever going to impeached for their crimes does.

No, it still doesn't make it OK for Putin to just go busting in the doors of sovereign countries, just like it wasn't OK for Bush to do it in Iraq.

Because Poland was historically German, right?

For around 120 years (until 1919), yes. On the other hand, Crimea only became ethnic Russian when Stalin deported almost the entire native Tatar population. Incidentally, Hitler's justification for invading Poland was to protect the German minorities there: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volksdeutsche . The same went for the Sudetenland, except that was majority German I believe.