Giving peace a chance

[Anabasis]

There are indeed two values. It is perfectly possible for Rome to have a disposition of 100 toward Carthage, and for Carthage to have -100 toward Rome. In a war, the faction that loses the initial engagements gets a high disposition toward the winner and is then not likely to attack them, and is even likely to propose peace. I suspect that the winning faction, which keeps its low disposition toward the loser, simply stops seeing it as a threat because of the changes in the power balance and then gets 'distracted' by other low disposition factions that are more threatening. But this is pure speculation. The basic observation is that in many cases, both sides do cool down after the initial round of battles in a war. This results in less exchange of territory over time. One region factions get taken out, but larger ones can survive the initial clash before the cool down.

[Anabasis]

I have gone back to testing with Vanilla for now, 15 turns in. I have made a few tweaks so that expansion now has a real diplomatic cost with your neighbours. Playing as Pontus again, Galatia attacked me and I successfully fought back. But they are one of those facitons thats does not easily accept peace, so I had to beat them up repeatedly. As the war progressed, I was getting messages every turn that other factions were dropping their trade agreements and non-aggression pacts with me. Bithynia now positively hates my guts and I half expect them to drop our military alliance at some point. I will see if I can fix it by throwing money at them. In any case, if I am right the penalties should be short lived, perhaps a dozen turns or so before they decline to a reasonable level.

In the west, Rome has ejected the Etruscans from Italy and are besieging Syracuse, with the result that they are very unpopular with their neighbours. N. Carthago has beaten back the Spanish tribes (but no exchange of territory) and is now fairly secure in that corner. Carthage is sitting it out for now. In the east, the Seleucid are expanding and in the north, Royal Scythia is getting to be quite the little power.

[Anabasis]

Ok, continuing my run with DeI, here is the situation in 250 (88 turns). Again, not a completely implausible map for 250 BC. Essentially, syracuse has replaced the Carthaginians as the owners of the main Mediterranean chokepoint and Rome will eventually have to take them on, but first they will have to complete the unification of the Italian peninsula. Carthage has found a new life as the main power in the western med. Pontus (me) mainly had to deal with an Armenian attack on Cappadocia, which could have been destablizing in the region. I ended it by taking a settlment from Armenia and they immediately accepted peace. The real action has been going on in the east. Through the 260s, the Seleucid had expanded steadily, all the way to Persia. They essentially controlled the entire area between the Med, the Perian Gulf, and the Caspian. Their expansion stopped in the early 250s, and there was a period of calm in the area. Then in 254, Persia, Parthava, and Media Atropatene all invaded the Seleucid Empire.

In the same year, Parthava took Ekbatana, Persia took Susa and Gazaca, and Media took Hatra. Then over the next few years, the Seleucid hit back hard. First, they retook Gazaca from Persia, then Ekbatana from Parthava. By then I had sent a force down there because I was at first worried about a complete collapse of the Seleucid and didn't want Persia on my border. I arrived just in time to see the Seleucid closing in on Hatra. To see what it would do to the diplomacy screens, I took it before they could. There followed a series of inconclusive field battles between 252 and 250, and Ekbatana changed hands a couple of times, ending up in the possession of Persia. In 250, the Seleucid made peace with Persia and Media Atropatene, effectively ending the war. The result is that the Seleucid empire is a bit weakened but still the biggest player in the area, Media Atropatene and Parthava have been battered into single region factions with very weak prospects, and Persia emerges the big winner by expanding to Susa and Ekbatana.

I am still reflecting on the implications of this for the mod, but at this point it is clear that the power bar is a very important factor. Even after their initial losses, the Seleucid were still much more powerful than any one of their enemies. It probably helped that as far as I can see, they lost very few troops in the initial invasion, even though they lost several regions. Whereas most factions would have sued for peace after a taking such a beating in 254 (as Armenia did when I took a region from them just a couple of years before), the Seleucid Empire hit back with everything it had and actually defeated two of its adversaries and contained the third. Interestingly, after they were each beaten back once, the invaders stopped attacking. The Seleucid, on the other hand, kept coming, but by 252, I could tell their movements were more scattered. They weren't aiming at one particular region and were often changing direction and scattering their stacks instead of concentrating them as they did in 254 and 253 during their counter-attack. By early 250 they were pretty much inactive and then peace broke out.

So it seems that when the attacker is defeated and the target turns green in their diplomacy screen, they stop attacking. But the power bar controls whether the invaded faction fights back, whether the attackers are red or green to them. In this case, peace happened when both sides were green to the other, but I don't see how the power bar fits into the decision for peace. In the case of Seleucid vs Persia, the bar was probably much more even than in 254, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Seleucid asked for peace. But Media Atropatene was essentially defeated when peace was made, so it seems likely that the diplomacy rating played a more important role in that decision.

I'm going to push this one further. (steam seems to be having trouble right now, so the picture may not show)

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

http://cloud-4.steampowered.com/ugc/...8C8B82A1D364A/

[Anabasis]

In the latest version, the ally penalties are more effective. While a successful military campaign can still get you large diplomatic bonuses that can allow you to get a peace treaty, you will also get smaller penalties with both allies and enemies. The penalties are more long-lived than the bonuses. This means that constantly being on the offensive will lose you some friends, while enemies that were beaten and compliant at one time will soon recover their resolve and may become aggressive again. Short, sharp campaigns with specific objectives are more effective than long, drawn out, or inconclusive wars.

Playing this latest version with DeI will get you some interesting diplomatic gaming, but the first few turns will somewhat chaotic as aggressive AI factions all go to war with their enemies at the same time. If you survive the initial storm, the system tends to settle down and generate some interesting dynamics. Playing in Vanilla produces excellent results as well, with less of an initial period of instability.

[Anabasis]

I continued the run until 242. In brief, things were fairly quiet out West, with Rome picking up a few settlements and the barbarians out on the fringes beating on each other. But the real action was again in the east. Remember that the Seleucid vs Persia war ended in 250. By 246, the various diplomatic bonuses had faded and everyone was red to each other again. Persia again invaded, join one turn later by Media Atropatene. The fighting went back and forth with the Persian capturing two settlements, and the Seleucid recapturing them quickly. By about 242 the sides are running out of steam and seem on the verge of making peace again with Media having picked up Charax and Persia one additional settlement. The Seleucid are slowly being ground down by the eastern factions.

This run suggests that the system of rapidly decaying bonuses and slowly decaying penalties for acts of war is working as intended, creating an initial cool down period and sometimes a peace treaty, but leading to renewed fighting between dedicated enemies some years later. It also means that as the confrontations escalate, the slowly decaying penalties accumulate and make it harder for the combatants to compensate for them with temporary bonuses from victories. Later wars are more determined and stubborn.

[Anabasis]

Just a cool little moment to report. This is using just my mod and It's a Small World. 220, I am Pontus. Media Atropatene has been at one region for a couple of decades. Armenia already made itself my satrapy after we went to war a few turns ago. Cappadocia, my ally who doesn't like me very much declares war on Media Atropatene. They ask me to become my satrapy. I accept. Cappadocia immediately makes peace

I think I am starting to get to some good settings.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Butan]

Good stuff.


Can you begin to transform your first post into a diplomatic changelist so that it is easier to follow your experimentations, and also easier for newcomers to download your mod without hesitation

A link with the "save compatible" mention will definitely improve the number of your subscribers, as I think even in this "experimental" state it is definitely working well and largely worth it.

[Anabasis]

Thanks. very glad that you're enjoying it. I think I will follow your advice. This particular run is now at 198 and things are getting very interesting from a diplomatic point of view. Remember that Media Atropatene made themselves my satraps to save themselves from a Cappadocian attack in the 220s. Cappadocia has now attacked them a second time, and I decided to stand by my satrap because Cappadocia is just destabilizing the whole region. Trouble is, I didn't have much in terms of troops in my heartland, so Cappadocia quickly tore through it and completely gutted my settlements by the time I could bring my campaign armies back from the frontier. I have now retaken most of it and Cappadocia is down to two regions and begging for peace, but I have decided to eliminate them.

In the meantime, my other satrapy, Armenia is openly plotting against me. They have two stacks parked outside their former capital and have started agent attacks againts my forces and settlements. Last turn, my ally Trapezos declared war on them and I decided to stand by them and not protect Armenia. I am not yet at war with them, and I hope it holds off until I am done with Cappadocia, or that Trapezos can win a couple of early engagements and turn Armenia green towards us so they lay off. Very interesting decisions to make as the game progresses.

I am not completely sure yet how it shakes out for the AI, apart from favouring the survival of major factions and the emergence of local powers, but from the point of view of the player, it puts a premium on stability. Expansion is not done by conquest so much as by intervention and coalition building, which is quite a bit more historically accurate than the 'total war' model.

[Black_Watch42]

great mod mate, I feel that this mod will soon be one of the essentials to truly enjoying this game soon enough

[TWCassius]

Anabasis

For now you're only testing? Haven't you uploaded the mod yet?

[Anabasis]

It is available on steam.

[TWCassius]

Great! I would like to try it, could you please paste a link here? Thank's. Or gimme the mod's name there's too many on steam workshop atm!

[Butan]

http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfile.../?id=206461648

Get it while its cheap!

[TWCassius]

Get it while its cheap!

lol thanks

[Anabasis]

I've increased movement rates to more historical levels and have doubled the upkeep cost of units (on the premise that only large, rich empires should be able to field large armies). I've also significantly increased the size of zones of control, the reinforcement range, and the lines of sight. The results are excellent. In the wide open spaces of the east and north, the CAI can create and sustain very large empires. In the more confined geography of the west, states tend to be smaller and more concentrated. All in all, a very historical result. This is the situation after 47 turns, running 1TPY, with me as Pontus. There was a collision between Bactria and the Seleucid about 5 turns ago with the Seleucid winning a battle in the field, and now the two have just made peace. This run uses Small World, TTT, and the unreleased version of my mod.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Black9]

Increasing movement range and zone of control sounds like a great idea, actually. It's always made me rage so hard when an army can just scoot by mine by a hair's breadth.

[Butan]

Will there be a version with only the diplomatic overhaul? I'm not sure I will be interested in the increased upkeep/movement rate/ZOC/LOS/etc.

[Anabasis]

Yes, I will leave the current version up, and will put up the new version as 1TPY campaign realism mod. I will see if I can do a version that would work with DeI in 4TPY. Mine would have to be loaded first, I think.

[Anabasis]

With the release of my 1TPY campaign realism mod, I will move discussion to this thread: http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showt...ce-a-Chance%29

Steam link to new mod: http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfile.../?id=211580539