Could Stannis have realistically won the battle of Kings Landing

[IrishBlood]

Could he actually have won?

Lets say Tyrion failed to organize the defense or his plans failed (for whatever reason) and Stannis took the city, would it have made much of a difference?

It would h taken him a considerable amount of time to get his men organized after their let run loose through the city. Even Sannis would have a hard time preventing plunder and such in a city of that size.

Joffery and company would be locked up tight in the red keep and that would take more then a couple of days to breech, by which time tywin lannister and the tyrells would have arrived.

Basically I dont think Stannis would have won! even if he captured the city he would soon be under siege himself!

Thoughts opinions?

[Uriyaca]

Could he actually have won?

Lets say Tyrion failed to organize the defense or his plans failed (for whatever reason) and Stannis took the city, would it have made much of a difference?

It would h taken him a considerable amount of time to get his men organized after their let run loose through the city. Even Sannis would have a hard time preventing plunder and such in a city of that size.

Joffery and company would be locked up tight in the red keep and that would take more then a couple of days to breech, by which time tywin lannister and the tyrells would have arrived.

Basically I dont think Stannis would have won! even if he captured the city he would soon be under siege himself!

Thoughts opinions?

Firstly, its thw battle of the Blackwater, not the battle of King's Landing (thats not its name anyway)

Second is that Joffrey would have probably lost most of his men deffending the city to protect himself in the Red Keep which would probably quickly have fallen

Thirdly is that I think the Tyrell's and Lannisters army is equally matched to the force of Stannis, and they won by flanking him in the Blackwater which they probably won't be able to replicate- Stannis is a brilliant and efficient commander compared to the fatlord Tyrell, Tarly and Tywin are a tough battle but Stannis is better then them. Anyway he would have sallied out

Fourth is that he could have made a deal to release all of Joffrey's family trapped in the red keep for Tywin and Mace bending the knee, they quite possibly would have agreed considering Joffrey would've been held captive by Stannis by then. Also, moral shock for their lords and men for losing the capital

Also there is still Robb which is ravaging the West and wrecking havoc

And overall, a brilliant commander (Stannis) with a MASSIVE host (half the Reach + the Stormlands) would not at all certainly a defeat.

And in any case, Stannis CAN just wait inside the city whixh would take a of time to starve out, while the Tullies and Starks are wrecking their lines. If Tywin assaulted the city, he would've surely lost

My thoughts

[Iron Aquilifer]

Stannis for the win!
This is opinion and one of many scenarios which could have occurred
Honestly, you do have a point, although, if Joffrey had died, then Mace's hopes for Tyrell blood on the throne would be squashed. Even Tywin's own bannermen, tired of all the defeats, would consider turning. Even if Tywin managed to keep his bannermen together, and somehow form an alliance with Mace, his own lands are being ravaged, Robb's actions may have still been the same (he didn't receive news of KL until after Jeyne..well) but then Wlader Frey would know that Tywin was on the losing side (as would Roose) they would remain loyal and...this is getting off focus.
With the Lannister claim to the throne gone, Tywin's bargaining chips (Joffrey, Tommen, Cersei) are gone so can't (well unlikely) get the support of the reach, who, wanting to appear loyal, turn on the Lannisters (my wish).
Anyway I will read over this post, and double-check other posts in other forums with the same question and get back to you

EDIT: ninja Uri over there!
Where is this MASSIVE host coming from? It is five thousand Narrow Sea lords and their levies (a poor crop...could be meaning numbers or lack of money to army their troops) and fifteen thousand Stormlanders and a few Reachmen led primarily by Florents and Fossoways.
If Tyrell and Lannister did stay allied then there is a good chance that many of Stannis' men would wish to turn...internal fighting ect...
While Stannis is a great military commander, tested and found to be unable to bend should it be against duty (unless it is his RED RAVEN!) the sheer number of opponents could, and would defeat him. Remember that the city's walls would be damaged, the gates smashed open ect.

EDIT EDIT: Uri I am not having a go...just pointing out a few things...no hard feelings?

EDIT EDIT EDIT: The Battle of the Blackwater would have been won by Stannis if the Lannisters/Tyrells had not shown up. Even with the wildfire (having the opposite effect than was intended, see the realistically improbable bridge of ships) Stannis had enough men to take the city. The Gold Cloaks were in disarray and Cersei ready to have Ilyn kill all the noble ladies.

[Uriyaca]

Stannis for the win!
This is opinion and one of many scenarios which could have occurred
Honestly, you do have a point, although, if Joffrey had died, then Mace's hopes for Tyrell blood on the throne would be squashed. Even Tywin's own bannermen, tired of all the defeats, would consider turning. Even if Tywin managed to keep his bannermen together, and somehow form an alliance with Mace, his own lands are being ravaged, Robb's actions may have still been the same (he didn't receive news of KL until after Jeyne..well) but then Wlader Frey would know that Tywin was on the losing side (as would Roose) they would remain loyal and...this is getting off focus.
With the Lannister claim to the throne gone, Tywin's bargaining chips (Joffrey, Tommen, Cersei) are gone so can't (well unlikely) get the support of the reach, who, wanting to appear loyal, turn on the Lannisters (my wish).
Anyway I will read over this post, and double-check other posts in other forums with the same question and get back to you

EDIT: ninja Uri over there!
Where is this MASSIVE host coming from? It is five thousand Narrow Sea lords and their levies (a poor crop...could be meaning numbers or lack of money to army their troops) and fifteen thousand Stormlanders and a few Reachmen led primarily by Florents and Fossoways.
If Tyrell and Lannister did stay allied then there is a good chance that many of Stannis' men would wish to turn...internal fighting ect...
While Stannis is a great military commander, tested and found to be unable to bend should it be against duty (unless it is his RED RAVEN!) the sheer number of opponents could, and would defeat him. Remember that the city's walls would be damaged, the gates smashed open ect.

EDIT EDIT: Uri I am not having a go...just pointing out a few things...no hard feelings?

EDIT EDIT EDIT: The Battle of the Blackwater would have been won by Stannis if the Lannisters/Tyrells had not shown up. Even with the wildfire (having the opposite effect than was intended, see the realistically improbable bridge of ships) Stannis had enough men to take the city. The Gold Cloaks were in disarray and Cersei ready to have Ilyn kill all the noble ladies.

No hard feelings mate your just showing your opinion!
Anyway you make good points

[Påsan]

All Stannis would need to do was to capture Joffrey and Tommen and he would have Tywin by the balls.

[Feanaro Curufinwe]

Most likely. Even with the events as in canon, without the d̶e̶u̶s̶ ̶e̶x̶ ̶m̶a̶c̶h̶i̶n̶a̶ Lannister-Tyrell forces arriving, Stannis would have won.

[HolyBob]

Stannis's command skills are better than Tywin's. If he wasn't heavily outnumbered by the relieving force, Joffrey would have been burned, Cersei raped, and Tyrion in fool's motley dancing in the Red Keep.

[Toho]

Siege of KL, would have taken too long.
if Joffrey was dead then the Tyrells have no stake in the war.

the tyrells are left with 3 options

1) ally with robb stark
2) ally with stannis
3) remain neutral and go back to highgarden.

any of the choices above have their advantages and disadvantages.
btw this is before married robb the westerling girl.

eitherway if Stannis had won the siege of king's landing and had capture/killed joffrey the war would have been over.

[Mikail Mengsk]

Stannis would have won, unless Tywin manage to break through a gate while Stannis' soldiers were still pillaging the city. But Stannis is a good commander and has a strong sense of discipline, i doubt he would have left so much room for that case.

And if Tywin can't break into the city before Stannis garrisons the gates, the battle would be over. With Cersei and Joffrey barricaded into the Red Keep, safe but without chance to be rescued (unless Varys came to the rescue himself), and the walls full of soldiers, Tywin would have been screwed.

The Tyrell would bend the knee to Stannis or go elsewhere like Toho said. War is probably over unless the Tyrell allies with Robb, but i think it's unlikely.

[Iforgot]

Not sure, should there a be spoiler tag for people? Stannis could have easily won the Battle of the Blackwater, he nearly did just that despite he wildfire and casualties on the bay. If Tyrions mountain clan troops had not been in the king'swood killing Stannis's scouts and outriders, there would have been no open flank for the Tyrels and Tywin to attack. It was the blind spot created there that allowed Tywin to launch his surprise attack that caused so much confusion and fear among his ranks. If he had his outriders still there he would have known they were coming and he could have set a trap or at least denied them his flank or held them off, I don't think Tywin would be one to charge right into a prepared formation of troops with his unsupported cavalry. Remember that Stannis's troops nearly had the gate when Tywin's forces arrived. If Tywin delayed at all, Stannis would have had the city, Cercie and her kids many others would have died in the Red Keep and Tyrion if he would have survived his wounds would probably be chained up in his Chain fort. Stannis would be in possession of the Fortified Major Port city and a fleet to keep it supplied while Tywin would have had to try to besiege the city surrounded by a battlefield worth of rotting corpses. Would have probably wrapped up the series nicely actually....

[Badger-dude]

It would depend on so many factors - casualties taken, how fast the Tyrell/Lannister host arrived at the city, and a plethora of other factors.

To be honest, the Tyrell/Lannister host would have a serious advantage.

Let's talk numbers. All of these are from memory:

Tywin's host post-battles in the Riverlands is ~20,00 strong IIRC. They are joined by roughly 80,000 Tyrell men-under-arms of varying quality. The Lannister men are experienced, whereas I would infer that the Tyrell host would be of poorer quality. I would infer this because the 20,000 men who rode with Renly were mounted - likely more experienced and wealthier men. The Tyrell and Lannister hosts would have been forced-marched to the city, and are far from their own supply lines.

In contrast, Stannis had ~20,000 men at Blackwater. He took serious casualties from both the Wildfire and the assault. I cannot rember his strength post-Blackwater but the figure of 2,000 comes to mind. In a good day, I would estimate Stannis might have taken the city with 10,000 to 15,000 men.

Stannis' fleet was battered, and likely as not would have not been able to stand against the Arbor fleet (When it finally arrived of course)

Stannis was not liked amongst the people of King;s Landing, whereas the Tyrells would at least be bringing food. This means that the plebs would not have fought for Stannis with any degree of conviction, certainly less so than they did for Joff. THe only factor which might aid Stannis' position with the denizens of King;s Landing is the memory of what happened last time the Lannisters were let loose in the city.

TL;DR: Stannis could not have held King's Landing in a scenario where he takes the city before Tyrellister forces arrive.

[Iforgot]

(been a while since I read it) The Tyrell force was huge but I thought only the vanguard and cavalry of each army rode with Tywin to King's landing. Stannis's force was very small after the battle but his "losses" were mostly due to nobles turning coat in the midst of the chaotic battle that until the moment Tywin arrived, they had been winning. If they had not been surprised by the cavalry appearing on their flanks and rear they might have had a chance to turn and fight them. Unless the Tyrellister( I like that, good one!) force was as large as you say (again I think only the cavalry made it to the fight), then it may not have made a difference. Otherwise, if they had not been taken by complete surprise the way they were, or if Tywin was delayed enough, then Stannis could have taken the city. I don't know the force comparisons, but while Stannis's own fleet took heavy losses, Salador San's was untouched and still loyal. The Tyrel fleet may have not even arrived with Stannis in control of the city and the Ironmen very soon if not already raiding their shores. Stannis would have the city and its defenses, a fleet on hand and battle hardened and victorious troops on the walls. The Tyrels, if they stayed with Tywin, were numerous but soft and allied to Tywin who also still has the Westerlands to think about and no longer any horse in the race with Joffery and Cersie and Co all dead. Both side would likely soon have to face the hunger and disease of a siege, which the port city would likely be better suited to withstand than a huge siege camp near a battlefield full of dead. And under these circumstances even Tywin would have had a hard time continuing the war. Again, this sort of depends on the Tyrellister force at the battle being a bit less than the 100,000 or so you listed and Stannis or his commanders getting word of the approaching enemy, but its not outside of possibility, not by a long shot.

*edit/update* on the wiki it implies that the tyrellister force was 80,000 but I still want to reread it because it would seem very unlikely for many infantry to march so far and so fast and surely the 80,000 troops at bitterbridge weren't ALL cavalry. If it Was that many then it would have been a hard and costly fight regardless but advance warning would still have helped Stannis prepare greatly and reduce the chance of men turning coat mid battle. If Stannis Did gain the walls, Joffery and Co. would be dead and it would change the whole political calculus, but they would still have a hard time holding against a direct assault by the whole Tyrel host. Again it would take a direct assault because the city would be better suited to survive a siege with its port open.

[Badger-dude]

(been a while since I read it) The Tyrell force was huge but I thought only the vanguard and cavalry of each army rode with Tywin to King's landing. Stannis's force was very small after the battle but his "losses" were mostly due to nobles turning coat in the midst of the chaotic battle that until the moment Tywin arrived, they had been winning. If they had not been surprised by the cavalry appearing on their flanks and rear they might have had a chance to turn and fight them. Unless the Tyrellister( I like that, good one!) force was as large as you say (again I think only the cavalry made it to the fight), then it may not have made a difference. Otherwise, if they had not been taken by complete surprise the way they were, or if Tywin was delayed enough, then Stannis could have taken the city. I don't know the force comparisons, but while Stannis's own fleet took heavy losses, Salador San's was untouched and still loyal. The Tyrel fleet may have not even arrived with Stannis in control of the city and the Ironmen very soon if not already raiding their shores. Stannis would have the city and its defenses, a fleet on hand and battle hardened and victorious troops on the walls. The Tyrels, if they stayed with Tywin, were numerous but soft and allied to Tywin who also still has the Westerlands to think about and no longer any horse in the race with Joffery and Cersie and Co all dead. Both side would likely soon have to face the hunger and disease of a siege, which the port city would likely be better suited to withstand than a huge siege camp near a battlefield full of dead. And under these circumstances even Tywin would have had a hard time continuing the war. Again, this sort of depends on the Tyrellister force at the battle being a bit less than the 100,000 or so you listed and Stannis or his commanders getting word of the approaching enemy, but its not outside of possibility, not by a long shot.

*edit/update* on the wiki it implies that the tyrellister force was 80,000 but I still want to reread it because it would seem very unlikely for many infantry to march so far and so fast and surely the 80,000 troops at bitterbridge weren't ALL cavalry. If it Was that many then it would have been a hard and costly fight regardless but advance warning would still have helped Stannis prepare greatly and reduce the chance of men turning coat mid battle. If Stannis Did gain the walls, Joffery and Co. would be dead and it would change the whole political calculus, but they would still have a hard time holding against a direct assault by the whole Tyrel host. Again it would take a direct assault because the city would be better suited to survive a siege with its port open.

Glad you liked 'Tyrellister' ... also could be 'Tylannister'

Anyway. The scenario is too ill defined for proper analysis. However, assuming STannis took and meant to hold the city, the Lan/Tyr forces would have no reason to rush an assault. The only real damage Stannis would permit would be to the Great Sept of Baelor.

[Iforgot]

I would think they would have to assault immediately to have any chance to save Joffery and their claim. Cercie was already planning to kill herself and everyone and may have still gone through with it depending on if they got word of the reinforcements in time. Otherwise their claim dies and their large numerical advantage will slowly whither away due to hunger, disease and desertion. A long siege would also leave northmen free to run amok in the west at least until they head home to fight the iron born. Of course....if Jof and Tommen died, what about Mycella? She was in Dorne. Would the Tyrelisters even attempt to deal with Doran and the Red Viper with all their bad blood? Would Dorne try to put her as the next heir? Name one of them as her regent? I guess they series wouldn't be over after all....

[Imperator1512]

To be honest, if we assume that Stannis could have taken the city in the first place (unlikely due to the massive demoralising effect of the Wildfire added to the usual demoralisation of attacking in a siege), he wouldn't have been able to hold it. The city was already starving (it was the Tyrell's food that saved the city) and there was already unrest before the Battle of the Blackwater. With the blockading and starving as mentioned by Bronn, Stannis would either have faced revolt, or a siege from Tywin and the Tyrell's, resulting in either starvation, or a more likely revolt. Of course, a third outcome is that the relatively fresh and more numerous Lannister/Tyrell force could have assaulted the city as soon as possible after its fall to Stannis. His troops would not only be bloodied and tired from battle, they would also have to deal with angry commoners, dead bodies from both sides and any disease from that. It is likely that Tywin would have taken the third option as he needed to move his forces back to the Westerlands to fight the Starks, so therefore, in my opinion it seems most plausible that Stannis would have had what would have ammounted to a Pyrrhic Victory (due to his men being tired + low morale). Tywin/Mace would then have arrived and started to build siege equipment (ladders most likely), which would have taken at least a few days, during which Stannis would more likely than not have taken the Red Keep, resulting in the death of the royals. Tywin wins said assault, his forces are relatively fresh and out for revenge, Tywin kills Stannis + his army, diplomatic relations then begin to return Myrcella to King's Landing, perhaps with her betrothed as a ward as she is the only 'legitimate' (notice the ' ') heir to the throne, Tywin is King Regent, or Kevan Lannister. How things go with Dorne is another story, however i am too unsure either way to say whether or not the Tyrells either stay with the Lannisters, usurp the throne themselves, or return to Highgarden

[Korpskog]

Stannis would have burned both Joffrey and Tommen alive if he got within the city. Thus the Tyrell-traitors would have either turned back to Highgarden or bent the knee to Stannis. House Tyrell and it's leadership are the biggest cowards of all Westeros and would never make a move if there is nothing to gain. And I don't think King Stannis would be affected by some discontent Citizens, if Think you are mistaking him for his brother Renly who have feelings. Also this is the same guy who held Storm's End for a very long time with zero resources, I think he can handle Kings Landing with a third of the levies of the reach and all the might of the Stormlands and The Narrow Sea.

[Imperator1512]

And I don't think King Stannis would be affected by some discontent Citizens.

Oh I'm not referring to Stannis personally, his levies who have basically gone through hell will now have to rebuild the city (i.e. removing corpses + miner refurbishments etc etc) whilst also filling in the rule of the numerous Gold cloaks, add to that the fact that the city would have been sacked, there would probably be massive unrest amongst the citizens of King's Landing.

Also this is the same guy who held Storm's End for a very long time with zero resources, I think he can handle Kings Landing with a third of the levies of the reach and all the might of the Stormlands and The Narrow Sea.

Yes he may have been able to last a while, but consider two things, the city's resources are already depleted (as we know from the Tyrion chapters) and Tywin would be clearly be preparing for an immediate assault (due to the Starks getting nearer and nearer to Casterly Rock (the Crag I think?) and if Tywin looses that, it would have the same effect as what happened to Robb with Winterfell) so it wouldnt matter if Stannis could hold out, Tywin would assault the weary and injured troops of Stannis, likely taking the city as they probably wouldn't have the threat of the city's defenses against them, as they would have been damaged in the siege by Stannis' army.

[Korpskog]

I think the food-thing aint that serious, I mean it is not like Garlan and Loras had all their foodcarts with them during the battle.. :p Stannis could just as easily send for food from The Stormlands or across the Narrow Sea, after all he is the one blockading food coming in from the sea with his hired pirates! Also I think most of lords from the crownlands (Rosby, Duskendale, Rooks Rest etc) would be very quick to bend the knee to Stannis! Since they were allready assaulted by northmen (sent by Roose Bolton) Stannis would not have to worry about an assault from the north. Also the Blackwater rush is no normal river, an attack from the reach could easily be beaten back since Kings Landing is built on the best possible defensive position!

[Imperator1512]

Hmmm yeah, I guess it would take a while for the food to get there from the stormlands (not that fertile?) and across the narrow sea will take a while. Anyways back to the original question, I don't think it is more in question whether or not Stannis could actually take the city, he could definitely have if either the wildfire plan hadn't worked OR the relief force hadn't have got there in time, but it is questionable due to many factors whether or not Stannis could actually hold the city. It all depends on how quickly the Lannister/Tyrell force assaulted the city. If within a few weeks, it is likely that Stannis couldn't hold the city, any longer than a few months and he could have held the city, either because he can get resources as you said via Sallador Saan and the rest of his fleet, or because Tywin left to retake Casterly Rock (if the Starks took it) or to attempt to kick the Starks out of the Westerlands.

[Mhaedros]

Stannis probably wouldn't have done this, but if I had been in his position, and the Tyrellisters hadn't showed up in time I would have taken every nobleman I could find in the city and make a run for it back to Dragonstone, where I would make sure Joffrey and Tommen, if they are still alive, were killed, and then see if the Tyrell's would bend knee. If they did, Tywin would be in a hard spot, trapped between Robb and Stannis-Mace, and if the Tyrell's remained loyal I would at least be in an easily defended position. I don't think Stannis could hold the city, even without the wildfire and a population that didn't hate him. Just taking the city would show how capable he is, to make the Tyrells reconsider their position. Staying there would have been impossible in the long run.