Turkey started getting crude oil directly from KRG

[Odenat]

In a move that can increase tension at Middle East, Turkey started buying crude oil directly from The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). This is a direct challenge to Central Iraq government claim of being full control over Iraqi oil.

The export by KRG is still small (15,000 barrels per day (bpd) ) but will soon increase to 250,000 bpd in 2013. In exchange, Turkey is sending back refined products to the Kurdish region, which is short of fuel. So, the big winner is Turkey which is making tons of money and KRG which is gaining more independence from Central Iraqi government.

My personal feeling is that the government of Maliki will soon move against Kurds.(also, there are news that Turkey gave guarantees at 2008 to protect northern iraq in case of a Central Iraq attack)

How do you guys think this will affect the Middle East? Do you think the current alliances ( Turkey, North Iraq, Syrian rebels vs Iran,Central Iraq,Syrian government) will stay?

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/krg...&NewsCatID=348

[magpie]

Well the Iraq Government is having major problems with the Sunni fueled no doubt by the Syrian conflict.
Its also in a bind with the Kurd's the whole region is going to under go major changes if the Syrian rebels overthrow Assad.
My thinking is we are going to see a regional sectarian war Shia against Sunni with the Kurd's in Syria,Iraq and Turkey involved.
That should keep the lights on in the U.S. state Department offices.

[Treize]

It is all the fault of the Americans anyway.

[hellheaven1987]

Wasn't Iraqi government tried to rebuild its Air Force and made it clearly last year Turkey could not launch anymore military campaigns into Iraq?

[Beorn]

This has to be the first time that Turkey collaborates with Kurds of northern Iraq, am I right?

[white-wolf]

This has to be the first time that Turkey collaborates with Kurds of northern Iraq, am I right?

No, you are not right.

[Odenat]

This has to be the first time that Turkey collaborates with Kurds of northern Iraq, am I right?

Actually, during Saddam's chemical attack, Turkey helped Kurds and accepted 100.000s of them as refugees.

I'm not sure if Iraq Sunnis is enough powerful to fight back against Maliki's government. They have no armed force, no resource. Iraq Kurds have both armed forces and resources to sustain them.

[AqD]

It'd be much better for the world if every groups of people get their own governments as they wish, and people stop claiming baseless sovereign rights against other people's wish of self-ruling.

Turkey is doing a good job here.

[white-wolf]

It'd be much better for the world if every groups of people get their own governments as they wish, and people stop claiming baseless sovereign rights against other people's wish of self-ruling.

Be careful for what you wish. And what about limits for your declaration? For example if a group of people IN your street wish self-ruling do you approve that? If you ok them, what about if an house wish self-ruling on that group? I would like to hear your thoughts on that, really.

[Caelifer_1991]

I feel like a lot of problems in the Middle East would be solved with the formation of a Kurdish State, it'd probably help Turkey's prospects for entering the EU as well, reducing their population and thus the political power they would have in the EU system of government, removing a border conflict, removing the number of Middle Eastern borders that the EU would have if Turkey were to join it, and removing some of the poorest areas of it's territory that would drain the EU's resources, all simultaneously. I can only imagine that Turkey has on some level considered this, they must know that Kurdish autonomy in Iraq will transfer over into it's own borders.

[PointOfViewGun]

I feel like a lot of problems in the Middle East would be solved with the formation of a Kurdish State, it'd probably help Turkey's prospects for entering the EU as well, reducing their population and thus the political power they would have in the EU system of government, removing a border conflict, removing the number of Middle Eastern borders that the EU would have if Turkey were to join it, and removing some of the poorest areas of it's territory that would drain the EU's resources, all simultaneously. I can only imagine that Turkey has on some level considered this, they must know that Kurdish autonomy in Iraq will transfer over into it's own borders.

Carving a new state out of others would by default create border disputes. There is no way you expect millions of Turks living in the region to be just ok with it.

There are more Kurds living in other regions of Turkey. Would you expect Turkey to kick out all the Kurds into this new state? EU wouldn't allow that. It's more likely for people living in this new state to leave it for neighboring states, mostly Turkey, creating a new influx of people.

Your post is simply fails to strike any reality...

[Caelifer_1991]

Carving a new state out of others would by default create border disputes. There is no way you expect millions of Turks living in the region to be just ok with it.

There are more Kurds living in other regions of Turkey. Would you expect Turkey to kick out all the Kurds into this new state? EU wouldn't allow that. It's more likely for people living in this new state to leave it for neighboring states, mostly Turkey, creating a new influx of people.

Your post is simply fails to strike any reality...

Well it's true that the creation of a Kurdish State would create many border disputes with it's neighbours, Iraq, Turkey and Syria, those would be issues that might in time actually be resolved, unlike Kurdish nationalism that seems that if anything it will only increase over time. I think the time will probably come when the Kurds will create a State for themselves anyway, better to simply give it to them and have good relations with them than to fight a war with them for god knows how long with minimal actual benefits. Also I see no reason for the forceful movement of any group of people tbh, I imagine that if the Kurds want their own State enough then a lot of them would willingly move there anyway, and for any that don't, who cares? Same with Turks in would what be Kurdistan, and other groups from Iraq and Syria. Ultimately, when everyone has their own State things tend to gradually get resolved, when people are denied that, things only ever seem to escalate, I'm basing that more on European history than anything, but it seems to be a trend, so despite not knowing all the specifics, my default position is in favour of Kurdish independence, regardless of the issues (and there are always issues).

[PointOfViewGun]

Well it's true that the creation of a Kurdish State would create many border disputes with it's neighbours, Iraq, Turkey and Syria, those would be issues that might in time actually be resolved, unlike Kurdish nationalism that seems that if anything it will only increase over time. I think the time will probably come when the Kurds will create a State for themselves anyway, better to simply give it to them and have good relations with them than to fight a war with them for god knows how long with minimal actual benefits. Also I see no reason for the forceful movement of any group of people tbh, I imagine that if the Kurds want their own State enough then a lot of them would willingly move there anyway, and for any that don't, who cares? Same with Turks in would what be Kurdistan, and other groups from Iraq and Syria. Ultimately, when everyone has their own State things tend to gradually get resolved, when people are denied that, things only ever seem to escalate, I'm basing that more on European history than anything, but it seems to be a trend, so despite not knowing all the specifics, my default position is in favour of Kurdish independence, regardless of the issues (and there are always issues).

You seem to live in a different dimension. You were quick to change some of your points so that's good. You don't even know if Kurds in Turkey want independence.

If you're not advocating forceful movement of people then Kurdistan inside Turkey will merely have 7 million people in it's first days. Couple of months later it would have a fraction of that. Turkey would obviously have an embargo on the state. They'd even ask for reparations for all the past investment done in the region. It would soon become an empty land.

People having their own states lead to wars in Europe. It was only through extreme measures and interventions that they were resolved or hold in check. I see no logic in your post.

[Yosemite]

In a move that can increase tension at Middle East, Turkey started buying crude oil directly from The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). This is a direct challenge to Central Iraq government claim of being full control over Iraqi oil.

The export by KRG is still small (15,000 barrels per day (bpd) ) but will soon increase to 250,000 bpd in 2013. In exchange, Turkey is sending back refined products to the Kurdish region, which is short of fuel. So, the big winner is Turkey which is making tons of money and KRG which is gaining more independence from Central Iraqi government.

My personal feeling is that the government of Maliki will soon move against Kurds.(also, there are news that Turkey gave guarantees at 2008 to protect northern iraq in case of a Central Iraq attack)

How do you guys think this will affect the Middle East? Do you think the current alliances ( Turkey, North Iraq, Syrian rebels vs Iran,Central Iraq,Syrian government) will stay?

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/krg...&NewsCatID=348

wasn't turky supposed to oppress kurds or something

[white-wolf]

wasn't turky supposed to oppress kurds or something

yea, we also eat kurdish babes at breakfast with fava beans.

[Menelik_I]

So basically Turkey is taking the initiative of shaping foreign policy in the Middle East at the same Egypt is becoming more active. I guess it is not a coincidence that this happened now that it seems evident that the USA has lost its attempt to contain Iran, and it will probably only increase as time goes by.

Ironic that the end of the USA somewhat ME "Empire" is falling apart without a ceremony or dramatic event, just small steps as more regional powers take the lead.

[Odenat]

So basically Turkey is taking the initiative of shaping foreign policy in the Middle East at the same Egypt is becoming more active. I guess it is not a coincidence that this happened now that it seems evident that the USA has lost its attempt to contain Iran, and it will probably only increase as time goes by.

Ironic that the end of the USA somewhat ME "Empire" is falling apart without a ceremony or dramatic event, just small steps as more regional powers take the lead.

Actually, USA is trying to prevent the independent deal made between Turkey&KRG. They still try to prevent the dissolution of Iraq. Nowadays, USA have very limited influence, neither the Iraqis, the Kurds nor the Turks give much importance to USA. Maliki listen more to the Iranians than the Americans

Isn't it funny that after 2 wars and spending billions of dollars, USA still failed miserably. I mean by destroying Iraq, they made it an Iran satellite. Iran is much more powerful at the area thanks to them. North Iraq is protected by the Turks. And Turkey, its old ally, does not give a damn to what they say.

Their last ally, Israel, is surrounded, hated by all. I wonder what those CIA guys or think-tanks did all those time ? How they failed to see this happening ?

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/...deals_999.html

Ayup, the North Iraq is becoming a client of Turkey more and more while Iraq is disintegrating. Do not get me wrong; this is Maliki's doing with getting Iran's path.

Soon, I think Syria will be another client. So, all these happenings are effects of Iran-Turkey match.

You can be right. Things are looking more and more like the end of 15th century. Turkey and Iran is dominating the region and Egypt is full of internal problems. I always considered the invasion of Egypt as a mistake. Selim II was a great warrior but not a good statesman. By invading Egypt and making a vassal of it, he destroyed a potential ally against Iran and Western Europe. And Mamluks were fellow Turks !

[Menelik_I]

Actually, USA is trying to prevent the independent deal made between Turkey&KRG. They still try to prevent the dissolution of Iraq. Nowadays, USA have very limited influence, neither the Iraqis, the Kurds nor the Turks give much importance to USA. Maliki listen more to the Iranians than the Americans

Isn't it funny that after 2 wars and spending billions of dollars, USA still failed miserably. I mean by destroying Iraq, they made it an Iran satellite. Iran is much more powerful at the area thanks to them. North Iraq is protected by the Turks. And Turkey, its old ally, does not give a damn to what they say.

Their last ally, Israel, is surrounded, hated by all. I wonder what those CIA guys or think-tanks did all those time ? How they failed to see this happening ?

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/...deals_999.html

I love the USA, but what do you expect from the people who almost caused the world Apocalypse having all of NORAD Strategic Bomber Command Communication lines pass through a single relay and without any back up. Yes, they are sometimes that dumb.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Now more to the situation at end.

Israel itself is also becoming a more independent Regional Agent now that the USA is failing with its ME policy, for the simple reason that they are not blind to the USA failure.

Ironically Israel has somewhat benefited by Mubarak falling because the Muslim Brotherhood can't afford a bunch of crazy Islamists festering the Sinai and which can challenge their authority in the future. Also because the Muslim Brotherhood can't just ignore Israel hammering Hamas into submission and yet can't just go to war over it right now then they ironically more helpful on the Gaza question than Mubarak. But this is probably dumb luck.

But they might be putting down the seeds of a future Israel-Egypt Axis against Egypt, or whatever geopolitical cluster the region is going to be in the future and are establishing themselves as a fixed piece of the regional puzzle. If Israel can work with the devil, they can work with anyone.

On the more active front Israel is taking the initiative on the off shore Gas maze of the Eastern Mediterranean by helping out Cyprus and having strategic cooperation with Greece, this is giving them friends and will guaranty that in a few years Israel might actually become an energy exporter. So they are not net losers right now.

But the think thank crew is probably just mentally :wub: as they drink champagne and dream about how their big conference are working.

[white-wolf]

Ayup, the North Iraq is becoming a client of Turkey more and more while Iraq is disintegrating. Do not get me wrong; this is Maliki's doing with getting Iran's path.

Soon, I think Syria will be another client. So, all these happenings are effects of Iran-Turkey match.

[hellheaven1987]

Soon, I think Syria will be another client.

That depends what Egypt would do.