Here comes the War in Mali and maybe Nigeria.

[Menelik_I]

International forces will not do the ground fighting, that role will belong to the Malian army,” a military officer familiar with the plan, who asked not to be named, said on Friday.
“Air strikes will be the responsibility of the international force,” he said, adding foreign partners would also provide logistical and intelligence support and soldiers and police to secure areas captured by the Malian army.
Military planners from Africa, the United Nations and Europe in Mali’s capital Bamako last week drew up a battle plan that would involve a foreign force of more than 4,000 personnel, mostly from West African countries. It remains unclear how much of the force would come from Western nations.

http://blogs.the-american-interest.c...r-mali-leaked/

Here comes the war in Mali courtesy of the French, just after launching a Sarkozi-Cameron War in Libya.

It all started during the Libyan Civil War when thousand of Qaddafi Loyalists and weapons escaped south into the Sahara, then along with thousand of Islamists they flooded and overran the north of Mali. Now credit shall be given to the Malian Army, the took millions US military aid for weapons and training and the first thing they do when the Islamists show up is to run for cover under their women skirt's.

Now if this war goes the same way as Libya, western air power + local troops (in this case African soldiers from surrounding nations), we might get the same outcome : Weapons and Islamist escape to somewhere else. Which bring up the ed up possibility : That they escape to Nigeria and join with Boko Haram.

If that happen and Nigeria is thrown in a Islamist insurgency, just asking African troops to invade with Western Air support is not going to work this time around, since in Nigeria Boko Haram has the collaboration of some in positions of power in the police and political class, plus Nigeria is more populated and with bigger cities, the situation could go very badly very quickly. The other twist is that Nigeria itself is the country that is supposed to provide most of the troops to fight in Mali.

So here might come the war in Nigeria too after the war in Mali and the War in Libya.

Here is map of the status quo, as you can see transit from Mali to Nigeria wouldn't take that long, especially if the Islamists feel that going back to Libya is not an option, so the situation there could influence this whole domino.

Discuss.

[Hazzard]

So the west will again be dragged into a civil war where we should not even be there?
Of course the western governments will go in! And we haven't even got anything to gain from it.

[Dragus]

There is plenty to gain from the destruction of religious extremists such as this Islamist militia.

It would certainly be preferable to annihilate them entirely rather than allow them to escape or go into hiding again.

[Menelik_I]

There is plenty to gain from the destruction of religious extremists such as this Islamist militia.

It would certainly be preferable to annihilate them entirely rather than allow them to escape or go into hiding again.

Sure there is, but this shouldn't be the exclusive responsability of the West, in fact I don't blame them for taking down Qaddafi and causing the Islamist to flee south. It is the sole fault of Mali for not having a military worth even when they scammed the USA for millions in training and weapons as part of the war on terror, actually I can blame Bush maybe.

Now I don't have much faith of them being completely destroyed, because of the incompetence of African militariy, you were thinking Libyan militias were disorganized, you ain't seen .

I really hope they get all killed and all the weapons get apprehended, because if the weapons reach Nigeria the balance of power there might go FUBAR either with political handlers of Boko Haram losing control of their dogs or increasing pressure on the Nigerian Government to implement Sharia by Blackmail : Surrender or we bring Mali and Libya to Kano.

So the west will again be dragged into a civil war where we should not even be there?
Of course the western governments will go in! And we haven't even got anything to gain from it.

The West has such as war boner there ain't a hell hole when they won't wanna put their guns in.

[Black John]

actually I can blame Bush maybe.

Yes, I will transmit this to Vladimir.

[MathiasOfAthens]

it its worth it. AQ in Africa... we are already at war with them... this isnt a new war, just a new front in an old war.

[Menelik_I]

it its worth it. AQ in Africa... we are already at war with them... this isnt a new war, just a new front in an old war.

I really hope the next front is in ing California because this is getting tiring, the more you guys seems to be "winning" the more this is spreading.

[Dragus]

Hopefully we'll see a decisive and desirable outcome in our favor.

[Prosaic Visitant]

I hear Nigeria has oil....

[Dragus]

Oil or no oil, at the end of the day the blood of al-Qaeda is the sweetest-smelling liquid of all.

I'm not entirely sure how much of a role those involved in Libya have in connection to this, but regardless I wish the United Nations the best of luck.

[Menelik_I]

Oil or no oil, at the end of the day the blood of al-Qaeda is the sweetest-smelling liquid of all.

Sure it is, but maybe you guys should do your mess somewhere more close to home like Florida or California, it being a Global conflict doesn't mean that you have to up the planet to get high on terrorist blood. Plus it will reduces travel costs, so invite the terrorists to all land in Florida

Seriously, the oil is more important than you think, some Southerns complain that they ain't having enough of their oil money and some northerners want to impose Sharia on those southern infidels. What could possibly go wrong is you give one side huge quantities of weapons and experienced weapons.

Can we really say that America is winning the war on terror ? There are more terrorist hotspots around the world now than there was in 2001. Something is seriously wrong.

[removeduser_487563287433]

Here comes the war in Mali courtesy of the French, just after launching a Sarkozi-Cameron War in Libya.

It all started during the Libyan Civil War when thousand of Qaddafi Loyalists and weapons escaped south into the Sahara, then along with thousand of Islamists they flooded and overran the north of Mali. Now credit shall be given to the Malian Army, the took millions US military aid for weapons and training and the first thing they do when the Islamists show up is to run for cover under their women skirt's.

Now if this war goes the same way as Libya, western air power + local troops (in this case African soldiers from surrounding nations), we might get the same outcome : Weapons and Islamist escape to somewhere else. Which bring up the ed up possibility : That they escape to Nigeria and join with Boko Haram.

If that happen and Nigeria is thrown in a Islamist insurgency, just asking African troops to invade with Western Air support is not going to work this time around, since in Nigeria Boko Haram has the collaboration of some in positions of power in the police and political class, plus Nigeria is more populated and with bigger cities, the situation could go very badly very quickly. The other twist is that Nigeria itself is the country that is supposed to provide most of the troops to fight in Mali.

So here might come the war in Nigeria too after the war in Mali and the War in Libya.

Here is map of the status quo, as you can see transit from Mali to Nigeria wouldn't take that long, especially if the Islamists feel that going back to Libya is not an option, so the situation there could influence this whole domino.

Discuss.

What a ing retarded post.

The situation in Mali has not occurred because of Islamists overflowing into the country from the North. It's a homegrown movement based around the Taureg, many of whom did fight in Libya beforehand.

Now, cross border influence on a region of a sparsely populated Saharan state is not the same as Islamists overthrowing Nigeria - the leading power of West Africa. Boko Haram is a serious terrorist threat - it cannot expel the federal Government from towns. It's pure fantasy.

[Menelik_I]

The situation in Mali has not occurred because of Islamists overflowing into the country from the North. It's a homegrown movement based around the Taureg, many of whom did fight in Libya beforehand.

Libyan weapons did overflow from the North with Libyan war veterans, making the situation go FUBAR. the Tuaregs (not taureg!) independence dudes were kicked by the Islamist a few month earlier.

Now, cross border influence on a region of a sparsely populated Saharan state is not the same as Islamists overthrowing Nigeria - the leading power of West Africa. Boko Haram is a serious terrorist threat - it cannot expel the federal Government from towns. It's pure fantasy.

I never said anything about them overthrowing Nigeria.

Them getting more weapons and manpower means that they can increase the intensity of their operations, sure on paper they might not be strong enough to overthrow the Government, but how many people do you think have to die before people start to consider giving in ?

The leading power in West Africa also has a lot of poverty and corruption, do you really think people are going to wait until the theoretical point of military resistance to go awol if the Islamist increase the body count ?

THE Boko Haram sect has killed 2,800 peole since 2009, the Human Rights Watch

2009 Boko Haram launches its military campaign for Islamist rule.

July 2009 Hundreds die in Maiduguri, in north-eastern Borno state, when members set several churches, a police station and a prison on fire.

Police are among the victims of attacks by motorcycle-riding gunmen in northern Nigeria. The uprising is eventually crushed by a police and military assault, with hundreds dead and the sect's headquarters and mosque left in ruins. Boko Haram's leader, Mohammed Yusuf, is captured by the army and passed to police for interrogation. He dies in custody.

September 2010 The group frees 721 prisoners, including 105 suspected sect members, from a Bauchi jail in northern Nigeria. The violence coincides with the runup to the presidential elections.

December 2010 Boko Haram regroups under a new leader, Abubakar Shekau, and bombs Jos, in central Nigeria, killing 80 people. It is also blamed for a New Year's Eve attack on Abuja barracks. The incidents mark the beginning of a killing spree, with the group targeting its critics.

June 2011 Police headquarters are bombed in Abuja, killing six people. United Nations headquarters in the capital are targeted just two months later, destroying the lower floor of the building. Eighteen people are killed and dozens injured.

November 2011 The motorcade of the Borno state governor, Kashim Shettima, comes under bomb attack in Maiduguri as he returns from a trip abroad. About 150 die in co-ordinated bombing and shooting attacks on police facilities in Damaturu and Potiskum in Yobe state.

Two suicide bombers blow themselves up outside military headquarters in Maiduguri in what was described as a botched attack.

December 2011 Multiple bomb attacks on Christmas Day kill dozens, including 35 at St Theresa's church in Madalla, near the capital. A second explosion shortly afterwards hit a church in the central city of Jos, where a police officer was killed by gunfire. Three attacks in northern Yobe state kill four people. Two further attacks hit the town of Damaturu, and a third strikes Gadaka.

January 2012 Bombing kills at least 180 people in Kano, the deadliest attack to date.

June 2012 Offices of ThisDay newspaper are bombed. Later in the month, more than 100 people die in attacks on three churches in Kaduna, a city on the border of the Muslim north and the predominantly Christian south.

September 2012 The group attacks mobile phone masts belonging to nine telecommunications companies.

The army announces it has killed at least 35 suspected members of Boko Haram.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...meline-nigeria

Everything is fine, Nigeria is the leading power in West Africa ... Life is not a Total War Game, people experience fear and despair.

I was under the impression our political position globally was stronger now than during the early 2000s. Am I mistaken?

It might be, but those people on those positions are not that happy.

[removeduser_487563287433]

Tuaregs (not taureg!) independence dudes were kicked by the Islamist a few month earlier.

No it's a situation based on decades of background.

Them getting more weapons and manpower means that they can increase the intensity of their operations, sure on paper they might not be strong enough to overthrow the Government, but how many people do you think have to die before people start to consider giving in ?

Giving into what? Can you be specific for a change?

[Menelik_I]

Giving into what? Can you be specific for a change?

To Boko Haram demands, probably partially, and reducing military pressure on them, thus allowing the group or its handlers to gain bigger political influence.

Because for you talk about "Regional Power", there are those in Government that support the group financially and are using them to further a political agenda, not really unexpected if you remember that Nigeria is one of the most corrupt countries in Africa.

Here is an example of one of the political handlers of Boko Haram.

A senior member of the Islamist sect Boko Haram has been arrested at the home of a senator in the group's stronghold in northeastern Nigeria, the military said on Saturday, adding to evidence that the group has ties to government officials.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...89J0DJ20121020

[removeduser_487563287433]

To Boko Haram demands, probably partially, and reducing military pressure on them, thus allowing the group or its handlers to gain bigger political influence.

For that to happen you are talking about Abuja losing a full blown conflict. Simply not within the realms of possibility.

[Dragus]

I was under the impression our political position globally was stronger now than during the early 2000s. Am I mistaken?

[Svaline]

You'd think a socialist president (Hollande) might be somewhat less hawkish, but this **** seems to be scoring quite a few brownie points with the french public.

[Dragus]

You'd think a socialist president (Hollande) might be somewhat less hawkish

My friends often jokingly ask this about me as well. I've always wondered what makes people assume we're all anti-war or anti-military.

[Svaline]

My friends often jokingly ask this about me as well. I've always wondered what makes people assume we're all anti-war or anti-military.

They probably don't realize that when it comes to foreign policy and to be honest most important (ie economic and geopolitic) issues the differences between major parties are only skin-deep.