Uganda is going to withdraw from AU operations in Somalia, brings doubt about the future of Somalia

[hellheaven1987]

Uganda contributes largest percentage of troops in African Union mission in Somalia (Amisom), by the way.

Uganda will withdraw its forces from UN-backed international missions, Security Minister Muruli Mukasa says, escalating a long-running row.

Mr Mukasa said the government had sent an official to New York to inform the UN of this decision.

Operations in Somalia, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo will be affected.

The UN infuriated Kampala when it published an experts' report accusing Uganda of arming Congolese rebels.

Mr Mukasa told a news conference: "If our efforts are going to be misinterpreted and we are going to be maligned, we want to be in a good relationship with our neighbours.

"Let's stop all these initiatives. We will concentrate on ourselves. Whoever wants to cause us trouble, they will find us at our home."

Uganda provides the largest contingent to the UN-backed African Union mission in Somalia (Amisom).

The Amisom force has helped the Somali government gain ground against Islamist militias.

Analysts say a rapid withdrawal of Ugandan troops could threaten those gains.

Ugandan troops are deployed in smaller numbers to an international mission to CAR and DR Congo to hunt down the remaining elements of the Lord's Resistance Army and its leader, Joseph Kony.

The LRA killed thousands of people and abducted thousands more during a long insurgency that has seen it fight in several countries.

The remarks from the security minister echo a statement made in the Ugandan parliament on Thursday by Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi.

The BBC's Catherine Byaruhanga in Kampala says while both the prime minister and the security minister have said the decision is irreversible, there has been no official government word on the issue.

The foreign and defence ministries, when contacted by the BBC, said no statements were available.

A report by a UN panel of experts last month said Rwanda and Uganda were both supplying weapons to the M23 rebels in the DR Congo. Both countries denied the claims.

The rebels' insurrection has forced some 500,000 from their homes since April.

Source

So despite it seems now Al-Shabab has been pushed into a corner by a coalition force and Somalia finally has some hope to be stable again, the coalition force fell apart - Ethiopia itself is locked into possible internal politic struggle and unable to do much, Kenya is descended into chaos politically and socially day-by-day and probably would not able to push further now, while Uganda, got piss because UN criticizes some dirty game it is playing, decide to pull out from the only stable front of Mogadishu now despite AU finally got a chance to break the siege. I don't know why, but this situation remind me certain war in old days.

So that been said, would Al-Shabab, like Frederick the Great, earn a precious resting time and come back again?

[removeduser_487563287433]

Uganda is a hugely flawed democracy, and at the end of the day they must be showed that their refusal to acknowledge fair criticism

[hellheaven1987]

Uganda is a hugely flawed democracy, and at the end of the day they must be showed that their refusal to acknowledge fair criticism

Well that is Uganda's own problems, but the urgent problem is if Uganda really withdraw from Somalia a large military vacuum would be left there for Al-Shabab to explore, and consider how hard AU has been fighting Al-Shabab to gain so little, such chance to allow Al-Shabab coming back is unacceptable.

[AqD]

Somebody needs to start a new crusade there. History has shown us military forces without religion are weak and tend to retreat/rout under pressure

[Menelik_I]

Uganda contributes largest percentage of troops in African Union mission in Somalia (Amisom), by the way.



Source

So despite it seems now Al-Shabab has been pushed into a corner by a coalition force and Somalia finally has some hope to be stable again, the coalition force fell apart - Ethiopia itself is locked into possible internal politic struggle and unable to do much, Kenya is descended into chaos politically and socially day-by-day and probably would not able to push further now, while Uganda, got piss because UN criticizes some dirty game it is playing, decide to pull out from the only stable front of Mogadishu now despite AU finally got a chance to break the siege. I don't know why, but this situation remind me certain war in old days.

So that been said, would Al-Shabab, like Frederick the Great, earn a precious resting time and come back again?

The reason why Uganda would get pissed off by UN criticism is because the reason they went into Somalia was US insistence, so Ban Ki Moon is not their boss and they could give less of a about what He says.

This pullout probably has to do with reduced American Financial and Political support for the Ugandans, or at least under Ugandans eyes, more than the criticism itself. Same with Ethiopia now distancing itself, since around the days of the Islamic Tribunals the Ethiopian invasion received a green light from GWB. I somehow doubt that having subcontracted Kenyan, Ugandan and Ethipian troops, the US is going to commit ground forces to Somalia.

The UN and Co should just let Somalia break up in two since the North is already a separate entity, Puntland Somaliland and the autonomous region of Puntland, and the South is destined to some form of Islamic republic or another.

[hellheaven1987]

The UN and Co should just let Somalia break up in two since the North is already a separate entity, Puntland Somaliland and the autonomous region of Puntland, and the South is destined to some form of Islamic republic or another.

West would never feel secure when Al-Qaeda is so near to their new pipeline in Kenya.

Puntland has oil reserve by the way, so ya no more piracy!!

[Menelik_I]

West would never feel secure when Al-Qaeda is so near to their new pipeline in Kenya.

That is not scary ... what about a Al-Shabbab Islamist insurgency inside Kenya itself

Puntland has oil reserve by the way, so ya no more piracy!!

Nothing like being a Petromonarchy dude

[hellheaven1987]

That is not scary ... what about a Al-Shabbab Islamist insurgency inside Kenya itself

Na, in Kenya Islam is just one more excuse for people to shoot eachothers; when religious excuses run out they would kill eachothers with ethnic excuses and when that run out, they kill eachothers for resource.

[conon394]

So despite it seems now Al-Shabab has been pushed into a corner by a coalition force and Somalia finally has some hope to be stable again, the coalition force fell apart - Ethiopia itself is locked into possible internal politic struggle and unable to do much, Kenya is descended into chaos politically and socially day-by-day and probably would not able to push further now, while Uganda, got piss because UN criticizes some dirty game it is playing, decide to pull out from the only stable front of Mogadishu now despite AU finally got a chance to break the siege. I don't know why, but this situation remind me certain war in old days.

Well so far its only hot air...

From what this article say Museveni likely wants his officers busy where thay cannot cause him problems.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16853499

Also critical the article notes with 50% unemployment I am not sure his rank and file will appreciate that drop from $1000 a month back to $120. Fighting Somalia may not be fun, but you can support your family back home a lot better on 9 times the pay. The US has recently upped it military commitment to Uganda and the USAID budget is hoping for a expansion of aid to the region thru 2015 (and seems rather active there now http://uganda.usaid.gov/ ) - it would seem counterproductive for Museveni to really carry out his threat.

I'd say it more of trial balloon - critically he needs to gauge how important the US views Somalia compared to what he what may (likely) or may not (unlikely) be doing in the Eastern Congo. Its a good time to do it after all the US has a low appetite right now for new adventures I suspect Museveni just wanted to say create a statement that the US government would notice even while wrapped up in the Election.

[Bobz]

It's the problem you have when you get third world countries to run UN missions. It's why there's not much of a surprise when you hear of poor quality soldiers causing problems in countries they're meant to be helping.

Anyway, it's just a threat, the Ugandan troops aren't going anywhere yet.