Scottish Independence Referendum is agreed: vote in 2014

[The Great Montrose]

I do apologize there my friend, wasn't be clear enough i'm afraid, but i believe Future film-maker has explained it better than i was trying to do! Its the whole bias issue and sourcing of the poll itself. Also we can know factual that this poll is very selective in its method/outcome/particular target group due to the fact that the poll while online is based upon Scottish football fans (also i would ask, can anyone just vote? I looked around the site but couldn't find the poll itself, but could users from outside Scotland vote on it?) and that almost every other poll from other sources (agencies, newspapers and government) show the exact difference, indeed its recognized now among some that the polls are definitely in favor of the Union, and that actually the important thing now is the margin of win for Union, as a close Margin will mean greater changes potentially.

You'd need to make an account to vote on it and specifically look for the thread on independence to vote on it, I highly doubt theres non Scottish users all flocking to vote on it. I'm not claiming its a great poll, just thought I'd share it, it shows that Scottish football fans seem to be for independence. Also the fact that many unionists are so sure of a win it sets you all up for a fall when the results come out. The most recent poll from Ferrets source shows that support for our cause is at 36%. thats not that far off to be honest. Remember that going into the last Scottish elections it looked like Labour were going to win according to the polls yet it came out a SNP landslide victory.

It's not a scientifically conducted poll. It's an internet poll on a football website. It's sample isn't scientifically selected or vetted. It's demographic is hopelessly skewed. Honestly dude - the unionists are using IPSOS MORI, The Times, YouGov etc... and you use a football website nobody has even heard of? Do you really think you're producing a good argument here? This is genuinely pathetic, I actually feel pity for you right now.

People have heard of Pie and Bovril, Scottish people. I wouldnt expect you to have heard of it since your not Scottish.

Got the IP address data of users on there to prove it?

No, but I'm not sure why non Scottish people would make an account on a Scottish football forum, we're not exactly a popular league around the world.

We'll leave the whole poll thing since theres no way foward with it, just thought it would be something interesting to share thats all.

With the latest drop in UKIP support and the showing that labour and tories are neck and neck when the tories support should be at its lowest, it looks like a good chance of another tory government that the Scots didnt vote for in the next elections. People need to remember a YES vote isnt a vote for the SNP, as tommy sheridan put it on twitter "Independence is a new beginning not a destination", after independence we can chose our new government, the SNP, Labour, Socialists, Lib Dems and Greens.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politi...endum.21607716

The No campaigns confidence will be there downfall.

[removeduser_487563287433]

People have heard of Pie and Bovril, Scottish people. I wouldnt expect you to have heard of it since your not Scottish.

I would expect you to know what is a legitimate poll and what isn't, because you claim you are worthy to debate with me.

[The Hedge Knight]

Scottish people need to remember that a 'Yes' vote isn't a 'No' to the current government (be it conservative or any party) likewise.

Over 50% of people didn't vote for the current government. That doesn't mean 50% of people are ranting about a need to leave the union.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

You'd need to make an account to vote on it and specifically look for the thread on independence to vote on it, I highly doubt theres non Scottish users all flocking to vote on it. I'm not claiming its a great poll, just thought I'd share it, it shows that Scottish football fans seem to be for independence. Also the fact that many unionists are so sure of a win it sets you all up for a fall when the results come out. The most recent poll from Ferrets source shows that support for our cause is at 36%. thats not that far off to be honest. Remember that going into the last Scottish elections it looked like Labour were going to win according to the polls yet it came out a SNP landslide victory.

As to the poll my friend, fair enough for you to show it, but the ones i've been posting are from an academically more legitimate source, I'm not getting at you for the poll, i'm just merely pointing out that it doesn't really show any of the broader picture at all, beyond confirming that some football fans who support their team loyally, also supports their teams country. Which while indeed gives us an academic confirmation of football supporters persuasion...its not a scientific poll for the greater electorate pertaining to the referendum my friend.

Also while that's true about labour, this scenario is entirely different, this isn't as some independentists seem to think of Scottish left vs Conservative/Liberal coalition but in fact Union or split. Thus a different playing field, and it would be wrong to think of it in terms of party against party. As the Hedge Knight pointed out Just because the conservatives are in (Who i tend to dislike), doesn't mean you should throw away ties to a successful, stable and growing Union.

Also confidence is confidence because the Independence opposition has been so weak so far. Notice their not overly confident, the Unionists are pleased because actually its been easier so far than they were anticipating. So i don't think a downfall will be coming any time soon.

[The Great Montrose]

I would call saying the referendum has been won already over confident.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I'd hardly say personal opinions of unnamed mp's construe the entire Union campaign being overconfident my friend. As i've said, its more a recognising that actually the Unionists have a lead yes, but need to maintain it.. as your article states,

Sources predict the Yes vote could be boosted by those who want to register anger at the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition or at Labour, which is leading the Better Together campaign.
They stressed the UK Government must guard against such a protest by ensuring voters do not feel the only way to get more devolution is to vote Yes.

Also this part intrigued me...

SNP First Minister Alex Salmond recently said the current debate was the "phoney war" before the campaign proper began.

So to cover up his failures thus far, he's trying to spin it into being the whole 'well..that was just practice'. Does he really believe that the Scottish public will merely forget his bad planning thus far. Poorly chosen words.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

This just in my friends

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...11bn-1-3004586

THE predictions for Scotland’s future oil wealth until 2041 have been downgraded by £11 billion by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), a fall of more than 15 per cent on previous estimates.

And i'm shocked at this...

The latest report by the OBR appears to confirm a private admission by SNP finance secretary John Swinney in a leaked memo that oil revenues will not be enough to prevent spending cuts and tax rises in an independent Scotland. Liberal Democrat Chief Treasury Secretary Danny Alexander said: “Scotland has a thriving oil industry that plays a key role in the UK economy. But independent forecasts like the OBR’s consistently show oil revenues are set to decline in the long term – a fact confirmed by John Swinney’s secret internal analysis.

Again the SNP are lying through their teeth to us alas. They know very well we'll not be able to live off the oil and be better off. Tax rises and spending cuts will happen (something that i've argued and now been confirmed on...by the SNP themselves, unlikely allies eh?). So yeah, Now its fact- Vote for independence and we'll be worse off economically, financially and in terms of our own pockets! Where is the benefits pray tell?

[The Great Montrose]

Where is the leaked memo?

Also Dante the last bit of your article,
But last night the SNP hit back, pointing out that even without oil and gas the Scottish GDP is the same as the UK average. SNP Aberdeen MSP Mark McDonald said: “The No campaign’s Project Fear is fast becoming a laughing stock – it pretends that it would be really bad for Scotland to have access to our own oil and gas tax revenues, but really good for Westminster to grab them all.
“The reality is that an independent Scotland would be less reliant on North Sea revenues than highly-successful Norway, and more than half the value from Scotland’s oil and gas resources is still to come.
“Even without oil, Scotland’s GDP is the same as the UK average – it is an enormous bonus for Scotland, and we need a Yes vote next year to ensure that these resources work for Scotland.”

http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news...ge-opportunity

"The No campaign is under pressure after Denis Healey’s revelations that the Treasury underplayed the value of Scotland's oil and gas resources in the 1970s."

Westminster has been lying to us for decades, McCrone report anyone??

According to David Cameron the oil and gas industry is the “jewel in the crown” of the UK economy (June 2013).

http://www.yesscotland.net/5_things_...gas_renewables

[Dante Von Hespburg]

While the latter part of the article is debatable my friend, for one simple reason. It doesn't disprove my argument, as yes we can have the same GDP as the UK... by the higher taxation. No where does it claim that we have it without. In fact none of it actually states against the fact that higher taxes (which the SNP memo has quite literally stated in the memo, this isn't the no campaign fear mongering...its the SNP themselves my friend). Why would i want to pay higher taxes?


Info on the memo here:
http://www.bettertogether.net/blog/e...her-in-private
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/pol...b-cuts-1.74858

According to the document, drafted for the cabinet by Finance Secretary John Swinney, “volatility” surrounds oil production and prices.
It also admits Scotland’s population share of debt interest payments would rise by 40% “in cash terms”, public sector jobs could be cut to trim budgets and a £600 million bill would arise from setting up a Scottish tax service.

The Memo itself:
http://b.3cdn.net/better/c1d14076ee0..._u9m6vd74f.pdf

Also another leaked SNP memo showing their worries over financing the Scottish social sytem:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politi...efits.20368617

So its safe to say my friend, yes the SNP has screwed up big time and shot themselves in the foot, also their once more twisting and turning, and outright lying to us, when behind closed doors, they know what they say is bs.


Also the 70's my friend are rather moot here, as its fact the Oil and gas are in decline, the US with its fracking program too will no doubt upset prices by outproducing even the middle east- thus driving down the prices for oil and gas, heck even the UK is looking to expand its fracking program with deposits found in England and off the coast. why would we wish to base our economy off something so volatile? Its ridiculous. As to Cameron, he's a slimy one too to be fair, but the fact is the Oil is far too volitile and finite for it to be used majorly...thus the main issue is we as independent scots would have to foot the shortfall... tell me my friend? If services were cut, jobs thus lost, taxes raised (and so a loss of purchasing power as people have less to put back in the economy, causing it to shrink, causing the cycles to start over) if it would mean we would be worse off? and proven thus, would you still vote for independence?

I'm not getting at you here my friend, i just genuinely want to know.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I apolgise firstly for my lack of detailed posting on this articles subject, I've literally just come back from a place called Stormfront that my friend said to 'check out for a laugh'... my god is all i'm saying (and i don't really use christian phrases!) my mind hurts... And this forum now literally feels like a home coming..full of love and warmth...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-23379615

It will divide Scotland's four million voters into 40 different tribes.This will then allow the campaign to speak directly to undecided voters using letters, emails and face-to-face discussions.
Better Together said the technology, which has been developed with information from credit rating agency Experian and input from former advisers to President Obama, will allow them to identify lifestyle indicators like the number of cars a family has and local house prices.

A new era of political interaction on a personal level? This may have an effect on more than just the Scottish referendum, i just found it quite intriguing. I wonder if the Yes Campaign will develop/create its own version of the system.

[The Great Montrose]

Hmm that is indeed interesting Dante, I imagine the YES campaign will adopt the same system.

Also so good to see Aly Bain speak out for independence, Phil and Aly are idols for me so I'm happy with this news.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Dante Von Hespburg]

It will be quite a good idea, and maybe the first step towards bringing democracy back (and increasing its relevance) to the everyday person, as then they will better be able to see their views and questions being represented and answered. Also a daily article update:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scot...ears-1-3008634

In its submission to an inquiry being held by the House of Commons’ business, innovation and skills committee, the IOP said membership of Research Councils UK allowed Scottish scientists “excellent access” to CERN (the European Organization for Nuclear Research), the telescopes of the European Southern Observatory and ESA missions.It warned that the government of an independent Scotland would not only be forced to renegotiate access, but also provide funds to secure it.
Scotland’s universities are already facing the threat of losing millions of pounds of research funding following independence due to doubts over access to the funds of Research Councils UK.

The IOP’s concerns echo those of other academics who fear Scotland’s reputation for science will be damaged.Last year, constitutional expert Alan Trench, a senior research fellow at University College London, said institutions north of the Border would no longer be able to access the “hugely disproportionate” levels of funding they receive from Research Councils UK following independence.
Some of the country’s larger universities, including Edinburgh and Glasgow, currently receive up to 40 per cent of their funding from the body, which is made up of seven separate research councils, including the Arts and Humanities Research Council and the Medical Research Council.
In 2012, Scottish institutions received more than £229 million from Research Councils UK – 15.2 per cent of the total budget – despite having just 8.4 per cent of the UK population. A further £121m was received from charities.

My own fears are echoed and confirmed on the topic of our intellectual sector being greatly reduced and in jeopardy by an independent Scotland (See the whole missing out on high-tech industries too that i've posted earlier) and i've yet to hear a peep from the SNP about what they might do to counter this...and even if they can, it'll be costly as said, funding will have to be provided at a greater rate than currently.

[BritPatriot1815]

Scottish Independence would be a disaster for Scotland, they would be economically ruined by it. The EuroZone is collapsing so joining them would be a no-go, so their ways of making money would be by increasing taxes and trying to increase exports which would be difficult as a. they probably won't have the money to do it and b. there's little they can offer since all the British companies will likely remain British i.e. not Scottish. I think, although I have nothing against Scotland being Independent, it would be ruinous for them and, although I'm not a Scot, I would have voted against it. The Scottish economy would not do well in the current economic climate, which the SNP probably hopes will make people think that voting for independence will be a better idea when it would be a even worse idea. Just my opinion, I'm open to debate

[removeduser_487563287433]

You just said a load of easily challenged, totally unsupported crap.

[spartan753]

Just want to shoot something in here: the Scottish nationalists compare themselves a lot to Norway, so it is about time that someone would clear up a general misconception. Norway has NEVER been a poor country. Take this from someone who was born and lived his entire life in Norway, and who has had Norwegian history at the University in Oslo. The people of Norway has always had a high life expectancy and been fairly well off (compared to the rest of the world). Example: quite a few Norwegians emigrated to the USA in the 19th century. About 200,000 Swedes emigrated to Norway because they could not afford to travel across the Pond. The big difference between Norway before finding oil and the rest of the world is that Norway did not have any super-rich elite.

Just writing this so that people stop believing that the story of Norwegian oil is some kind of fairy tale about the poorest country in the world becoming the richest. Norway was actually quite rich compared to the rest of the world before finding oil.

Now, let the arguing continue gents

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Thank you for confirming something i've suspected my friend, it seems the current evidence that's amassing is beginning to show the true haphazard nature of the independence campaign, as many of the articles i've posted have been consistently showing. The Independentists (mainly to be fair here, the SNP) really need to get their act together, they have a few individual potentially brilliant members, but the part and salmond are really constraining them, which is just making our job that much easier.

[The Great Montrose]

Seems the Westminster government has misplaced 6 billion oil barrels... http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/uk-government-misplaces-six-billion-barrels-of-oil/

Also heres the important bits of the SNP's oil paper http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/Max...tland-294.aspx the full article can be found at the bottom of that though if you want to read that.

the paper highlights that:

• There are around 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil & gas remaining in the North Sea with a potential wholesale value of up to £1.5 trillion. This means that more than half the value of North Sea oil is still to be extracted.
• Research by Professor Alex Kemp suggests that almost all oil production (98.8 per cent) and around 60 per cent of total gas production over the next three decades is expected to take place in Scottish waters.
• An independent Scotland could produce six times its domestic oil demand and three times the country's domestic gas demand based on current production.
• Gross-domestic product (GDP) per person in Scotland increases from broadly the same level as the rest of the UK even without offshore oil activity to 118 per cent of the UK average when a geographic share of North Sea output is included. And while onshore tax receipts per person in Scotland are broadly in line with the rest of the UK, the inclusion of offshore revenues lifts Scottish tax receipts to £1,700 per person higher than across the UK.
• Tax receipts account for a smaller proportion of revenue than in a number of other major oil-producing nations, for example it accounts for 15 per cent of public sector receipts over the last decade in Scotland, compared to around 30 per cent in Norway.
• Around 200,000 people are employed directly or indirectly in the sector across Scotland, with record levels of field investment underway, significant growth expected in the next couple of years and total future investment in companies’ plans worth around £100 billion

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Its an interesting read my friend (Yeah i read their paper...i have a lot of spare time this evening!)

Though some things i would point out, and which are backed up in a fair and unbiased article here:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...-oil-1-3010352

However, the proposal was described by critics as a deal “too good to be true”, as a detailed rebuttal from the Treasury said Mr Salmond’s estimates were some 12 times the official figures provided by the Office for National Statistics.Pro-UK figures said Mr Salmond was “deliberately confusing” the wholesale value of oil and gas with the likely tax revenues that will flow to government.
Meanwhile, a leading independent think-tank said that Mr Salmond’s description of North Sea oil as a “bonus” to the Scottish economy did not stand scrutiny, given the fact that a future Scottish Government would need most, if not all, of its tax revenues to maintain current spending on services.

Its not quite as great as they're saying, and also that last part is what concerns me the most...why not incorporate this dynamic oil plan within a Scotland that has greater autonomy within the UK? Otherwise as said, just to maintain our standards of governance, welfare and living we'd need to use it all! With none or little left for improvements! Its a waste, stay with the UK, and use this for a benefit- creating something new, not just as the sole means of propping up our social and administration spending (let alone infrastructure)

Also the discrepancy with the Office of National statistics pointed out is cause for alarm on this, the SNP have a bad track record currently of truly thinking things through and getting the needed research sorted.

And finally am i the only one to notice Salmonds changed his tune AGAIN, due to the coming out of new facts which contradict his position- he's gone from using the Oil as a major means of funding Scotland, to now saying its a 'bonus'...sooo... backtrack much? No more grand oil driven dreams for us now he's realized that the resources their couldn't support is long term... nice one Salmond ?

Also something thats alarmed me, your point about the 15% tax...you try and raise that my friend, and i'm pretty sure we'll see a loss of interest in North sea oil by investors and companies, its competitive because its so low, remember their are vast wells out there beyond our lets face it rather meager source which will begin to seem a lot more competitive.

[removeduser_487563287433]

Seems the Westminster government has misplaced 6 billion oil barrels... http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/uk-government-misplaces-six-billion-barrels-of-oil/

Also heres the important bits of the SNP's oil paper http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/Max...tland-294.aspx the full article can be found at the bottom of that though if you want to read that.

the paper highlights that:

• There are around 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil & gas remaining in the North Sea with a potential wholesale value of up to £1.5 trillion. This means that more than half the value of North Sea oil is still to be extracted.
• Research by Professor Alex Kemp suggests that almost all oil production (98.8 per cent) and around 60 per cent of total gas production over the next three decades is expected to take place in Scottish waters.
• An independent Scotland could produce six times its domestic oil demand and three times the country's domestic gas demand based on current production.
• Gross-domestic product (GDP) per person in Scotland increases from broadly the same level as the rest of the UK even without offshore oil activity to 118 per cent of the UK average when a geographic share of North Sea output is included. And while onshore tax receipts per person in Scotland are broadly in line with the rest of the UK, the inclusion of offshore revenues lifts Scottish tax receipts to £1,700 per person higher than across the UK.
• Tax receipts account for a smaller proportion of revenue than in a number of other major oil-producing nations, for example it accounts for 15 per cent of public sector receipts over the last decade in Scotland, compared to around 30 per cent in Norway.
• Around 200,000 people are employed directly or indirectly in the sector across Scotland, with record levels of field investment underway, significant growth expected in the next couple of years and total future investment in companies’ plans worth around £100 billion

Alex Kemp again? Do you think we're dumb enough to forget when we pointed out this guy is on the SNP pay roll?

Even if he wasn't overwhelmingly biased (don't get confused: he is) why is the view of one man more valuable than the views of an entire Government department?

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Yeah that was my main impression too, the Office of National statistics has rather more authority than this rather very bias report, though don't get me wrong, i expected it to be bias, as it seems the SNP and some other indpendentists groups don't really like presenting the whole picture, instead skewing everything towards 'yay independence' and ignoring any possible problems under the guise of 'fear mongering'