PKK strikes again!! Eight Turkish police kill in bomb attack!!

[hellheaven1987]

Eight police officers have been killed by a roadside bomb in the southern Turkish province of Bingol, security officials say.

The device was detonated as their bus passed on a road in the Karliova district of Bingol province, they said.

Sources blamed the attack on Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants.

Fighting between the army and PKK rebels in south-eastern Turkey has escalated in the past year, with hundreds of lives lost.

Nine officers were wounded in the blast on Sunday morning, the officials said.

The army has mounted scores of operations in that region, and in neighbouring northern Iraq, in a bid to drive out the rebels.

The PKK has been fighting for an ethnic homeland in south-eastern Turkey since 1984. It is classified as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and EU.

In all, more than 40,000 people have died in the conflict.

Source

Interesting enough, it seems PKK's attacks increase considerably this year. On an average there are two to three attacks every month - both bombing and raiding. An even more interesting issue is that those attacks were largely aimed on Turkish police and military only, with attempt to avoid civilian casualty as much as possible. Those new features suggest a few things:

1. The strength and size of PKK probably increases considerably in recent years, perhaps has to do with the instability of Turkey's neighbors and PKK's change of goal.

2. The operation method of PKK also change; now its primary target is Turkish police and military, no civilian anymore. In fact, PKK had specially claimed it was not related with a bomb attack in August when the attack involved civilian casualty, suggest PKK now realizes attacking civilians would not work.

In conclusion, it is actually a good development that PKK change its operational strategy and stance on legal military targets only, and hopefully this strategy is enough to earn a Kurdish autonomous zone in Turkey.

[Armenum]

I guess another blow to any possible truce between PKK and Turkey. Though I'm sure the instability in the region is giving PKK more leeway in such attacks, and may also give leeway to Turkey in stamping them out. Wait for a retaliatory strike in the coming weeks.

[Crimson Scythe]

Ignoring the seemingly barely restrained support for an internationally recognized terrorist organization (), you're ignoring the collateral damage of these attacks, not to mention those attacks that have taken place in recent months on the civilian population (like in Izmir, Istanbul, and Gaziantep). About 1 out of 10 people killed are still civilians (according to the International Crisis Group - an article mentioning it here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...-clashes-kurds), and that doesn't count those that are wounded when the PKK stages attacks on security forces in population centers. Saying the PKK has shifted targets is a misnomer, as civilians are often collateral damage - even in this case, a teenage girl was wounded in the blast, which the BBC article doesn't mention: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/eig...&NewsCatID=341

As for the political analysis, you're both partly on the money with regards to the impact of the regional instability on the conflict. But you're missing an important element: Bashar al-Assad has very likely adopted the same course of action that his father did back in the late 1990s - namely supporting the PKK to keep Turkey occupied, which is doubly important now that Turkey is keen on supporting the FSA. That very nearly led to full-scale war between Syria and Turkey in 1998, which is a very dangerous precedent.

More importantly, however, there is usually an upswing in PKK attacks in the late summer and fall months, as they typically use the spring and early summer to sneak across the borders and set up their logistics. This year, however, with the increasing frequency of the attacks, and the much more rapid and effective responses of Turkish security forces (thanks to better equipment and training), the PKK has taken a beating, losing 150 terrorists in the last 2 weeks alone. And with each attack, the condemnation of the Assad regime grows, as does the likelihood of a Turkish-Syrian conflict.

Some may choose to see this as a nationalistic pissing contest, but it's not a game. This is a conflict, with many real people dying, and with potential political consequences that could easily lead to the deaths of thousands more. Keep that in mind.

[Armenum]

Some may choose to see this as a nationalistic pissing contest, but it's not a game. This is a conflict, with many real people dying, and with potential political consequences that could easily lead to the deaths of thousands more. Keep that in mind.

What's the prospect of Kurdistan of Turkey actually splitting? Given what's been happening in the Arab world and the potential for borders to be redrawn, could this also hit Turkey? I'm not saying a large piece of territory, but a small region near the Ararat plain.

[Crimson Scythe]

What's the prospect of Kurdistan of Turkey actually splitting? Given what's been happening in the Arab world and the potential for borders to be redrawn, could this also hit Turkey? I'm not saying a large piece of territory, but a small region near the Ararat plain.

The chances are probably somewhere between infinitesimal and "forget it", despite the salivation of some over this prospect.

From the Kurdish point of view, there simply isn't enough widespread support for separatism. More freedom, certainly (and rightly so), but not outright independence. Even with regards to regional autonomy, it already exists to a certain degree with regional councils that report to national political parties (the KCK was supposed to be this until it was co-opted by the PKK, which is why it's being shut down). More importantly, even in the provinces where separatism is ostensibly highest (which isn't too close to Mt. Agri, just to be clear ), there are still major divisions among the population, usually along tribal or clan lines. If these regions were to hypothetically separate, the likely result would be a tribal bloodbath.

From the Turkish population and government point of view, any redrawing of the borders are also impossible, since any government that allows this would be toppled swiftly, and not by the army. The Turkish public has seen too many casualties over the last 28 years to accept anything less than the total eradication of the PKK, regardless of how long the conflict continues.

More importantly, the balance of the conflict is better tipped in favour of the Turkish military than it was in, say, the early 1990s. The kinds of casualties that we see now a couple times a month were almost daily occurrences back then (I'm speaking from my own memories of living in Ankara between 1989 and 1991 and watching TV), with nowhere near the kinds of casualties being inflicted on the PKK at the same time. The re-organization and re-equipping of the Turkish military has made a very big difference, from UAVs to more attack helicopters and the widespread use of mine-resistant armoured vehicles. It's not much of a surprise that the PKK has begun targeting the police instead of the army or Jandarma, since the police are much softer targets (literally and figuratively). The targeting of police is also deliberate in another way: it weakens the Turkish government's ability to keep the PKK out of the cities, which is where they are more likely to build support - the poor villager or farmer sees both the PKK and the military as a nuisance that keeps him poor, but the PKK is glorified among some of the Kurdish urban poor, who often take the state's handouts for granted but seem to consider it 'fashionable' to riot over the stupidest things. One might also argue that since the police are now the representatives of the state more than the military (thanks to the AKP's gutting of the military), the PKK is also symbolically attacking the AKP, but that's a stretch, IMO.

[Armenum]

The chances are probably somewhere between infinitesimal and "forget it", despite the salivation of some over this prospect.

From the Kurdish point of view, there simply isn't enough widespread support for separatism. More freedom, certainly (and rightly so), but not outright independence. Even with regards to regional autonomy, it already exists to a certain degree with regional councils that report to national political parties (the KCK was supposed to be this until it was co-opted by the PKK, which is why it's being shut down). More importantly, even in the provinces where separatism is ostensibly highest (which isn't too close to Mt. Agri, just to be clear ), there are still major divisions among the population, usually along tribal or clan lines. If these regions were to hypothetically separate, the likely result would be a tribal bloodbath.

From the Turkish population and government point of view, any redrawing of the borders are also impossible, since any government that allows this would be toppled swiftly, and not by the army. The Turkish public has seen too many casualties over the last 28 years to accept anything less than the total eradication of the PKK, regardless of how long the conflict continues.

More importantly, the balance of the conflict is better tipped in favour of the Turkish military than it was in, say, the early 1990s. The kinds of casualties that we see now a couple times a month were almost daily occurrences back then (I'm speaking from my own memories of living in Ankara between 1989 and 1991 and watching TV), with nowhere near the kinds of casualties being inflicted on the PKK at the same time. The re-organization and re-equipping of the Turkish military has made a very big difference, from UAVs to more attack helicopters and the widespread use of mine-resistant armoured vehicles. It's not much of a surprise that the PKK has begun targeting the police instead of the army or Jandarma, since the police are much softer targets (literally and figuratively). The targeting of police is also deliberate in another way: it weakens the Turkish government's ability to keep the PKK out of the cities, which is where they are more likely to build support - the poor villager or farmer sees both the PKK and the military as a nuisance that keeps him poor, but the PKK is glorified among some of the Kurdish urban poor, who often take the state's handouts for granted but seem to consider it 'fashionable' to riot over the stupidest things. One might also argue that since the police are now the representatives of the state more than the military (thanks to the AKP's gutting of the military), the PKK is also symbolically attacking the AKP, but that's a stretch, IMO.

Thanks for the informative post. I know among Kurdish public the support for a separate Kurdish state is declining, though I'm sure many still want more freedom/autonomy within Turkey. I never doubted that Turkish military was stronger than PKK, especially in current day, but PKK still keeps the Turkish military busy. Of course, if PKK had much more firm support from the public, the situation would have been much worse. Maybe the movement will simmer off like the Basque movement in Spain or if something momentous happens in the region, maybe something else happens.

[Exarch]

hey erdogan, how does it feel trying to fill the shoes of Osman and his successors?sorry, pal, you ain't got nothing compared to those titans.

[PointOfViewGun]

1. The strength and size of PKK probably increases considerably in recent years, perhaps has to do with the instability of Turkey's neighbors and PKK's change of goal.

Based on what? I could say the number of deserters from PKK increased in the latest years as well.

2. The operation method of PKK also change; now its primary target is Turkish police and military, no civilian anymore. In fact, PKK had specially claimed it was not related with a bomb attack in August when the attack involved civilian casualty, suggest PKK now realizes attacking civilians would not work.

They still attack private property such as quarries and continue their civilian kidnappings. One of their main targets is attacking Turkish soldiers on their civilian day to visit the city as well.

[Heathen Hammer]

Kurdish Spring in Turkey?

[ivan_the_terrible]

Couldn't Turkey just undermine terrorist legitimacy for good by instituting some kind of Kurdish region with some limited autonomy?

It's not uncommon for otherwise sovereign countries to have such regions for ethnic minorities (for example Spain, Russia). They could just let the Kurds govern themselves in their mountain villages, as long as they pay taxes to Ankara and pay lipservice to Turkish sovereignty. Seems like a minor concession to me, and the separatists would have no leg to stand on.

[hellheaven1987]

Couldn't Turkey just undermine terrorist legitimacy for good by instituting some kind of Kurdish region with some limited autonomy?

Depends how limited it is, although that is basically jumped into PKK's goal as its current goal is to establish a Kurdish autonomous zone in Turkey.

[Blaze86420]

I don't think the PKK has any legitimacy to begin with, how is strong is separatism in Turkish Kurdistan even?

[ivan_the_terrible]

I mean to placate the Wilsonian 'right of ethnic groups to self-determination' crowd. I guess the question is: why can't Turkey give some minor concessions of autonomy?

[Armenum]

I mean to placate the Wilsonian 'right of ethnic groups to self-determination' crowd. I guess the question is: why can't Turkey give some minor concessions of autonomy?

That's my question also. At least giving Kurds a suitable degree of self-rule within Turkish borders would be a sensible step, and could be part of a wider framework in peace with PKK.

[John ''True Grit'' Wayne]

In conclusion, it is actually a good development that PKK change its operational strategy and stance on legal military targets only, and hopefully this strategy is enough to earn a Kurdish autonomous zone in Turkey

Turkey should let them have what they want then troll them by declaring all out war on them.And destroy them

[Stavroforos]

Sorry to hear about this latest attack. Hope you guys manage to bring them to justice.

[nein]

kurdish holocaust?

[Tureuki]

There will be no peace with PKK, even if government tries something like that there is no way they can persuade the people.

[Armenum]

There will be no peace with PKK, even if government tries something like that there is no way they can persuade the people.

Look at Northern Ireland, with the Republican Army's ceasefire that has endured ever since. Trying hard to squash the PKK and its supporters is just going to embolden their movement and create more sympathy for the PKK. The goal of Turkey should be to disconnect public sympathy/support for the PKK. One move that may really do that is granting such autonomous rule.

[selder]

Its only going to get worse, but then again Erdogan already knew that when he started supporting the FSA.
Turkey’s decision to allow Tariq al-Hashemi to stay in the country doesn't help relations with Iraq either.